Market Overview - The market experienced a complex morning with the three major indices peaking at 3391 points before retreating, while Hong Kong stocks slightly corrected and A-shares lacked upward momentum [1] - Trading volume exceeded 30 billion, with nearly 3000 stocks declining, indicating mixed market sentiment with some investors reducing positions and others increasing [1] Trading Dynamics - The market showed significant volume from the opening until 11:30 AM, suggesting that some investors were exiting positions after three consecutive days of gains [3] - Key sectors like liquor and banking saw upward movement followed by pullbacks, while the securities sector failed to maintain its upward trend, making it difficult for the overall index to gain traction [3] Conditions for Market Recovery - For the market to return to 3400 points, two conditions must be met: a noticeable inflow of northbound capital and significant gains in sectors like liquor and securities, which are currently not in place [5] - The absence of a clear main trading theme and the recent cooling off of the TMT sector indicate a lack of strong market drivers, although the absence of any stocks hitting the daily limit down suggests a stable market sentiment [5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards with fluctuations, and individual trading strategies may vary, emphasizing the importance of position management [7] - Despite nearly 3000 stocks declining, the overall index did not drop significantly, indicating potential for future market movements as the market adjusts [7]

CMS @ 招商证券 【银行_文雪阳】 O2 银行还要卖老债么? 【地产-区宇轩】房地产数据前瞻预测及观点 【基金-徐燕红】2025年首批浮动管理费基金特征分析及与以前批次比较 证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025年06月05日 招商证券|总量的视野 电话会议纪要(20250602) 【宏观-罗丹】工业企业利润分析 【策略-张夏】A 股六月观点及行业配置建议 【固收-朱宸翰】近期广义价格指数走势更新 【量化-刘凯】主动权益基金超额收益的困境与破局 【资配-王式蕾】6月大类资产配置展望 推荐(维持) 研究部/总量研究 □【宏观-罗丹】工业企业利润分析 事件:2025年5月27日,国家统计局发布 2025年4月全国规模以上工业企 业绩效数据。 4 月份,规模以上工业企业营业收入累计同比增速为 3.2%(2025年 3 月为 3.4%);规模以上工业企业利润累计同比增速为 1.4%(2025年3月为0.8%)。 4 月工业企业利润累计同比增速录得 1.4%,较上月提升 0.6 个百分点,营业 收入累计同比增速录得 3.2%,PPI 累计同比增速录得-2.4%,工业增加值累计 同比增速为6.4%,利润率累计降幅的收 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-06-05 一、指数走势 06 月 04 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.42%，收于 3376.2 点，成交额 4468.45 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.87%，收于 10144.58 点，成交额 7062.03 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.88%，成交额 2320.4 亿元，其中开盘价 6067.83，收盘价 6123.17，当日最高价 6124.7，最低价 6067.83； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.78%，成交额 1503.15 亿元，其中开盘价 5696.57，收盘价 5739.01，当日最高价 5744.45，最低价 5696.57； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.43%，成交额 2117.36 亿元，其中开盘价 3855.49，收盘价 3868.74，当日最高价 3875.86，最低价 3855.49； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.13%，成交额 511.09 亿元，其中开盘价 2688.74，收盘价 2690.82，当日最高价 2699.67，最低价 2687.3。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 05 日 招商证券丨总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20250602） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观-罗丹】工业企业利润分析 【策略-张夏】A 股六月观点及行业配置建议 【固收-朱宸翰】近期广义价格指数走势更新 【银行-文雪阳】Q2 银行还要卖老债么？ 【地产-区宇轩】房地产数据前瞻预测及观点 【基金-徐燕红】2025 年首批浮动管理费基金特征分析及与以前批次比较 【量化-刘凯】主动权益基金超额收益的困境与破局 【资配-王武蕾】6 月大类资产配置展望 ❑ 【宏观-罗丹】工业企业利润分析 事件：2025 年 5 月 27 日，国家统计局发布 2025 年 4 月全国规模以上工业企 业绩效数据。 4 月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入累计同比增速为 3.2%（2025 年 3 月为 3.4%）；规模以上工业企业利润累计同比增速为 1.4%（2025 年 3 月为 0.8%)。 4 月工业企业利润累计同比增速录得 1.4%，较上月提升 0.6 个百分点，营业 收入累计同比增速录得 3.2%，PPI 累计同比增速录得-2.4%，工业增加值累计 同比增速为 6.4%，利润率累计降 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-06-04 一、指数走势 06 月 03 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.43%，收于 3361.98 点，成交额 4682.93 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.16%，收于 10057.17 点，成交额 6731.17 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.72%，成交额 2342.97 亿元，其中开盘价 6009.18，收盘价 6070.04，当日最高价 6086.62，最低价 6008.54； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.42%，成交额 1599.97 亿元，其中开盘价 5653.67，收盘价 5694.84，当日最高价 5710.42，最低价 5653.3； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.31%，成交额 2267.83 亿元，其中开盘价 3833.46，收盘价 3852.01，当日最高价 3863.3，最低价 3832.72； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.32%，成交额 590.77 亿元，其中开盘价 2674.77，收盘价 2687.3，当日最高价 2697.39，最低价 2671.34。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

我们先从3394点的视角来看。前面我们给大家跟踪的是从3394点开始的一段下跌。我们说这一小段下跌 到这里已经结束了。昨天这里开始往上走，形成了一个上升的小结构。但目前这个小的上升结构遇到了 风险，也就是说它有可能会在这里结束。我们来看上证指数的5分钟K线图。前一个小的下跌波段是从 3394点开始的，往下到这个地方出现了一个反向的走势，所以我们认为这一段已经结束了。昨天开始这 里往上走，到昨天收盘的时候，因为这里的往上去的力度比较大，所以我们说到这儿的时候还不能确认 它结束。如果它能够走出300点的上涨，它还可以继续往上延伸。但是今天把3352点跌破以后，它又掉 回到了中枢里面来。换句话说，就是在这个中枢上方它没有能够形成三买，这个地方就变得比较危险 了。因为往上去上不去，如果接下来不创新高，再来一次不上新高的话，这种走势就会演变成一个下跌 走势的结构。再把前面的低点给打掉的话，它就会变成一个向下走势结构。那么这一段上涨就结束，然 后还有一段下跌再展开。当然，现在所处的位置就在于它没有创新高，但也没有把前面的低点给打掉， 处于一个悬空的状态。所以这种可能性我们不能排除。那么接下来，如果要防止这种情况发生，就是 ...

1. Index Trends - On May 29th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to close at 3363.45 points, with a trading volume of 453.741 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.24% to close at 10127.2 points, with a trading volume of 731.681 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.76% with a trading volume of 232.576 billion yuan, opening at 5980.86, closing at 6089.58, with a daily high of 6091.96 and a low of 5980.86 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.47% with a trading volume of 148.095 billion yuan, opening at 5637.06, closing at 5719.91, with a daily high of 5724.52 and a low of 5637.06 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.29% with a trading volume of 53.28 billion yuan, opening at 2684.49, closing at 2690.89, with a daily high of 2703.99 and a low of 2677.81 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 105.12 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Computer, Electronics, and Medicine & Biology significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 82.67 points from the previous close, with Electronics, Medicine & Biology, and Computer sectors significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 7.83 points from the previous close, with Electronics, Non - Banking Finance, and Medicine & Biology sectors pulling the index up, while Food & Beverage, Utilities, and Banking sectors pulling it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 66.97, IM01 of - 157.35, IM02 of - 309.74, and IM03 of - 475.64 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 53.15, IC01 of - 123.11, IC02 of - 229.29, and IC03 of - 349.52 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 22.88, IF01 of - 60.63, IF02 of - 90.54, and IF03 of - 127.91 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 15.56, IH01 of - 46.26, IH02 of - 51.34, and IH03 of - 52.09 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, etc.) are provided [22]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, etc.) are provided [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, etc.) are provided [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, etc.) are provided [27].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a high and then a pullback, nearly forming a weekly top pattern at 3344, closing at 3348 [1] - The market sentiment has been declining over the past week, with strong individual stocks gradually weakening, leading to a confirmed high in the index structure [1] - A new downward adjustment structure is anticipated, with potential support levels identified at 3268, and possible short-term rebounds at 3313 [2] Group 2 - The downward trend is expected to continue, with the market likely to fill in short-term gaps created after the May Day holiday [2] - Other indices, such as the CSI 1000 and CSI 500, have already begun their downward structures more rapidly than the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - The overall market dynamics suggest an increase in trading difficulty moving forward, with expectations of 1-2 more downward movements in the coming week [2]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-05-22 中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨-13.84 点，医药生物,公用事业等板块对指数向上拉动明显，传媒,计算机,电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨 10.55 点，汽车,医药生物,有色金属等板块对指数向上拉动明显，通信,机械设备,电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 沪深 300 较前收盘价上涨 18.21 点，电力设备,有色金属,银行等板块对指数向上拉动明显，电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 上证 50 较前收盘价上涨 11.8 点，有色金属,医药生物,煤炭等板块对指数向上拉动明显，电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 -10 -5 0 5 10 医药生物 公用事业 电力设备 银行 有色金属 基础化工 煤炭 汽车 交通运输 环保 轻工制造 石油石化 纺织服饰 建筑装饰 综合 社会服务 美容护理 建筑材料 家用电器 钢铁 食品饮料 房地产 商贸零售 非银金融 农林牧渔 国防军工 通信 机械设备 传媒 计算机 电子 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 图 4：中证 500 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 一、指数走势 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 汽车 医药生物 有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown three consecutive days of upward movement, but the strength of the upward trend is weak, indicating a potential for a pullback near previous high levels [2][5]. Technical Analysis - The index has moved from a low of 3356 to a recent high of 3380, with key resistance at 3370, which was successfully breached and confirmed [3][4]. - The current upward movement is characterized by a series of five to six segments, with the potential for a new upward wave or a consolidation phase near previous highs [2][4]. - A protective level has been established at 3380, which serves as a critical point for monitoring the market's strength; a drop below this level could signal the end of the recent upward trend [5].