1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2480 - 2540. It is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for a return to range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, leading to a tightening supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year due to reduced EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian production. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: The average price and trading volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 9th to May 20th are provided, showing the price trends and trading volumes of both, as well as the price difference between them. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 2.9 tons, down 19.44% week - on - week from last week's 3.6 tons and 9.38% year - on - year compared to last year's 3.2 tons. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are presented, including data on harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [13][9][24]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal shows narrow - range oscillations, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical factors. Low oil mill operation and inventory support the market, and short - term demand is rising. The tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the lack of a tariff on rapeseed limits the upside. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2420, with a basis of - 90, indicating a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: As mentioned above, the inventory situation is favorable. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have increased, but funds are flowing out. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to return to range - bound trading in the short term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a short - term rise followed by a decline. Influenced by soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal oscillates and declines, affected by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The low operation rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is gradually picking up. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, the short - term inventory of oil mills is under no pressure. The tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive impact may be limited as there is no tariff increase on rapeseed imports [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand. Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: China's tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to Fall**: The arrival of imported rapeseed has increased since March; the outcome of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Base Difference**: The spot price is 2420, with a base difference of - 89, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 29,000 tons, down 19.44% week - on - week from 36,000 tons last week and 9.38% year - on - year from 32,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2014 - 2023 shows changes in harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [24]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2014 - 2023 shows changes in initial inventory, production, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25]. - **Imported Rapeseed**: The arrival volume in May was lower than expected, and the import cost showed a strong and volatile trend [26]. - **Aquatic Product Prices**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [38]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from May 8th to May 19th are presented, including the main 2509 contract, far - month 2601 contract, and spot prices in Fujian [14]. - The trading volume and average trading price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 8th to May 19th are provided, along with the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [13]. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from May 7th to May 19th are shown, including the change compared to the previous day [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for rapeseed meal, the short - term trading strategy is "short - term shock and slightly stronger" [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal shows a strong and volatile trend, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical shock consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. Short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually rising. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure, and the market will return to range - bound trading in the short term. China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive for rapeseed meal, but the positive effect may be limited as no additional tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices will rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and will return to range - bound trading under the influence of soybean meal [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal is in a strong and volatile state. Influenced by soybean meal trends and technical shock consolidation, low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Short - term demand for spot is rising, and the market will return to range - bound trading. The additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand. Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - **Bearish factors**: Expected increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed in April; uncertainty in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [11]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed arrival**: The arrival of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost was in a strong and volatile state [19]. - **Oil - mill crushing and inventory**: Oil - mill rapeseed inventory continued to decline, rapeseed meal inventory rebounded from a low level, and the amount of rapeseed entering the mill for crushing rebounded to a relatively high level [21][23]. - **Rapeseed meal trading**: Rapeseed meal showed a narrow - range shock on the market, the spot price followed soybean meal and was weak, and the spot premium narrowed [33]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main force decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - **Futures**: Short - term shock and slightly stronger. For the single - side RM2509 contract, it will fluctuate around 2500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing are recommended. The futures trading should be mainly based on range - bound operations [12]. - **Options strategy**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options for the 09 contract [13]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal shows a narrow - range shock. Driven by rising demand and soybean meal trends, it will maintain a range - bound trading pattern in the short term. Future changes in China - Canada trade relations and the subsequent impact of the China - US tariff war will affect the market. The KDJ indicator oscillates and rebounds at a low level, and although the short - term market is in range - bound trading, the indicator is at a medium - low level, so the room for further decline may be limited. The MACD oscillates and declines, but the green energy narrows, indicating that the shock consolidation trend is approaching the end. The short - term market is still in range - bound trading, and the subsequent trend needs guidance from rapeseed import policies and the influence of soybean meal [42].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2500 - 2580. In the short - term, it was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a rise and then a fall. Influenced by soybean meal, its price has returned to range - bound oscillations [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2500 - 2580 [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future outcome uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other, there is still potential for the global geopolitical conflict to intensify, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Bearish factors**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased after March; the outcome of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand balance**: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. - **Price data**: The trading average price, trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 28 to May 12 are presented, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from April 28 to May 12 are also given, including the prices of the main contract 2509, the far - month contract 2601, and the spot price in Fujian. - **Inventory data**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 36,000 tons, up 148.28% week - on - week from 14,500 tons last week and 20% year - on - year from 30,000 tons in the same period last year. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipt data from April 25 to May 12 shows a continuous increase [10][14][15]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 需求预期良好，菜粕维持震荡 （菜粕周报5.6-5.9） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡收涨，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2480，基差-71，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.45万吨，上周0.97万吨，周环比增加49.48%，去年同期2.6万吨，同比 减少44.23%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of spot demand, and the impact of China's tariff policy on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, it will return to a range - bound pattern [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict still has the possibility of escalation, which provides support for commodities [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - season demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 - 2023 and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: It includes the trading data of rapeseed meal and soybean meal from April 25 to May 9, showing the changes in transaction prices and volumes. Also, the report provides the summary of rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from April 25 to May 9, as well as the statistics of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from April 24 to May 9 [14][15][17]. - **Other Fundamental Information**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost bottomed out and rebounded. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory dropped to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [27][30][32][40]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher, influenced by soybean meal and technical adjustments. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory supported the market. Spot demand is gradually recovering, and the increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has not put short - term pressure on oil mill inventories. The market has returned to a fluctuating pattern. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited [10]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is - 71, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 million tons, an increase of 49.48% week - on - week and a decrease of 44.23% year - on - year, which is bullish [10]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions decreased, but the capital inflow was positive, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal is affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a rise and then a fall. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to a range - bound pattern [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2530 - 2590. The short - term price is affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed, the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the influence of soybean meal, and will return to range - bound trading [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is gradually picking up, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, the short - term inventory pressure at oil mills is not significant. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited as there is no tariff on rapeseed imports [10]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. - Bearish factors: The arrival of imported rapeseed has increased after March; the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 tons, up 49.48% week - on - week and down 44.23% year - on - year. The inventory of imported rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost has rebounded. Oil - mill rapeseed inventory has slightly decreased, and rapeseed meal inventory has fallen to a low level. Oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume has rebounded from a low level [8][27][29]. - **Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2500, with a basis of - 63, indicating a discount to the futures. The price of aquaculture fish has slightly rebounded, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [8][39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [8]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: The low oil - mill开机 rate and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is gradually picking up, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited. Overall, it is neutral. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 63, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. - **Inventory**: The inventory is 1.45 tons, up 49.48% week - on - week and down 44.23% year - on - year, which is bullish. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bullish. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2530 - 2590 in the short term [8][9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of China's tariff policies on Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, the price will return to range - bound trading [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Bearish factors**: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. - **Price and trading volume**: The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 22 to May 6 are presented, as well as the price data of rapeseed meal futures and spot from April 22 to April 30. - **Warehouse receipts**: The statistics of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from April 21 to May 6 show an overall upward trend. - **Import situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated upwards. - **Inventory and processing**: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory dropped to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills rebounded from a low level [14][15][16][24][25][26][28][30]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal closed up in a fluctuating manner, driven by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The low - level operation of oil mills and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually recovering. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills is not under pressure, and the market has returned to a fluctuating pattern. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are short - term bullish for rapeseed meal, but the bullish effect may be limited as no additional tariffs are imposed on rapeseed imports. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is - 68, indicating a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 million tons, up 49.48% week - on - week from 0.97 million tons last week and down 44.23% year - on - year from 2.6 million tons in the same period last year. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. - **Main positions**: The main long positions decreased, but capital flowed in. - **Expectation**: In the short - term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the rapeseed meal price will return to range - bound trading [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2590 and 2650 [9]. - In the short term, rapeseed meal is affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes imposed by China, leading to an upward oscillation. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, the price of rapeseed meal will maintain a slightly bullish oscillating pattern [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2590 and 2650 [9]. - The fundamental factors show a mixed picture. The low开机 rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market, while the import of rapeseed and the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed import bring uncertainties [10]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture market is emerging from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising [12]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed import is still ongoing [12]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the decline in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [12]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the geopolitical conflict may still rise, providing support for commodities [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, low rapeseed meal inventory (0.97 million tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease and a 64.07% year - on - year decrease), and the decrease in主力 long positions and capital outflow [10]. - Bearish factors: The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March, the basis being at a discount (spot 2560, basis - 81), and the price being below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [10]. 4. Fundamental Data - The basis of rapeseed meal is - 81, indicating a discount to the futures [10]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.97 million tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease and a 64.07% year - on - year decrease [10]. - The import of rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost has oscillated upwards [27]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the rapeseed meal inventory has dropped to a low level [29]. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has rebounded from a low level [31]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The主力 long positions of rapeseed meal have decreased, and capital has flowed out [10]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Price and Related Data - The spot price of rapeseed meal has followed the futures price rebound, and the basis discount has remained at a relatively high level [20]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has risen and then fallen [22]. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts increased from 1000 to 2000 on April 28 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 should be traded within the range of 2640 - 2700 [9]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern driven by soybean meal [8][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal is affected by multiple factors. The low - level operation of rapeseed oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is gradually recovering. The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed does not pose an immediate inventory pressure on oil mills. The market is volatile and slightly stronger. The additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited as no tariffs are imposed on rapeseed imports [10]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season, with a weak supply - demand situation in the spot market. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the result yet to be determined. - The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the potential increase in global geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [12]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Position Concerns - Positive factors: The additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Negative factors: The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March, and the uncertain outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand. - The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] - **Price data**: The report presents the trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 11 - 22, including transaction prices, volumes, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. It also shows the futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal during the same period [14][15]. - **Inventory data**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 64.64%. The import of rapeseed in April was lower than expected, the import cost fluctuated upward, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory increased, and the rapeseed meal inventory dropped to a low level. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remained low [10][27][29]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds flowed out [10].