菜粕早报 2025-06-27 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2520至2580区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差-50，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.01万吨，上周1.55万吨，周环比减少34.84%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比 减少63.93%。 ...

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-12 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2610至2670区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，需求预期良好和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2540，基差-98，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周2万吨，周环比减少5%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少 32.14%。偏多 4.盘面： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-05-27 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2540至2600区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差-46，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存2.35万吨，上周2.9万吨，周环比减少18.97%，去年同期3万吨，同比减少 21.67%。偏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2500 - 2560. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a rise followed by a fall. Influenced by soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term [9]. - The rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong oscillation, while the spot market follows the weak trend of soybean meal, with the spot remaining at a discount [18]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows from a high level, and the price difference of the 2509 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintains an oscillating trend [20]. - The import volume of rapeseed in May is lower than expected, and the import cost shows a relatively strong oscillation [25]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills continues to decline, while the rapeseed meal inventory rebounds from a low level [27]. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills rebounds to a relatively high level [29]. - The price of aquatic fish shows a slight increase, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [37]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - No relevant content provided 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is recovering from the off - season, with a tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market [11]. - The annual rapeseed production in Canada has slightly decreased, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and the lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia relatively offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The report provides the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [23][24] - **Price and trading volume**: The report shows the trading average price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 14th to May 23rd, as well as the futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal during the same period [13][14] - **Inventory**: As of a certain period, the rapeseed meal inventory is 2.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.38% [9] 5. Position Data - No relevant content provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal first rose and then fell, affected by soybean meal and technical oscillation. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually increasing. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory of oil mills is not under pressure. The market will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term. The tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the positive impact [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 56, indicating a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory shows a decreasing trend, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main positions**: The main long positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-05-23 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 菜粕RM2509：2540至2600区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差-62，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存2.9万吨，上周3.6万吨，周环比减少19.44%，去年同期3.2万吨，同比减 少9.38%。偏 ...

2025-05-22 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2520至2580区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2460，基差-92，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存2.9万吨，上周3.6万吨，周环比减少19.44%，去年同期3.2万吨，同比减 少9.38%。偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-05-21 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕窄幅震荡，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2420，基差-90，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存2.9万吨，上周3.6万吨，周环比减少19.44%，去年同期3.2万吨，同比减 少9.38%。偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a short - term rise followed by a decline. Influenced by soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal oscillates and declines, affected by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The low operation rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is gradually picking up. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, the short - term inventory of oil mills is under no pressure. The tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive impact may be limited as there is no tariff increase on rapeseed imports [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand. Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: China's tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to Fall**: The arrival of imported rapeseed has increased since March; the outcome of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Base Difference**: The spot price is 2420, with a base difference of - 89, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 29,000 tons, down 19.44% week - on - week from 36,000 tons last week and 9.38% year - on - year from 32,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2014 - 2023 shows changes in harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [24]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2014 - 2023 shows changes in initial inventory, production, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25]. - **Imported Rapeseed**: The arrival volume in May was lower than expected, and the import cost showed a strong and volatile trend [26]. - **Aquatic Product Prices**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [38]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from May 8th to May 19th are presented, including the main 2509 contract, far - month 2601 contract, and spot prices in Fujian [14]. - The trading volume and average trading price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 8th to May 19th are provided, along with the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [13]. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from May 7th to May 19th are shown, including the change compared to the previous day [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for rapeseed meal, the short - term trading strategy is "short - term shock and slightly stronger" [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal shows a strong and volatile trend, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical shock consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. Short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually rising. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure, and the market will return to range - bound trading in the short term. China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive for rapeseed meal, but the positive effect may be limited as no additional tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices will rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and will return to range - bound trading under the influence of soybean meal [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal is in a strong and volatile state. Influenced by soybean meal trends and technical shock consolidation, low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Short - term demand for spot is rising, and the market will return to range - bound trading. The additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand. Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - **Bearish factors**: Expected increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed in April; uncertainty in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [11]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed arrival**: The arrival of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost was in a strong and volatile state [19]. - **Oil - mill crushing and inventory**: Oil - mill rapeseed inventory continued to decline, rapeseed meal inventory rebounded from a low level, and the amount of rapeseed entering the mill for crushing rebounded to a relatively high level [21][23]. - **Rapeseed meal trading**: Rapeseed meal showed a narrow - range shock on the market, the spot price followed soybean meal and was weak, and the spot premium narrowed [33]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main force decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - **Futures**: Short - term shock and slightly stronger. For the single - side RM2509 contract, it will fluctuate around 2500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing are recommended. The futures trading should be mainly based on range - bound operations [12]. - **Options strategy**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options for the 09 contract [13]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal shows a narrow - range shock. Driven by rising demand and soybean meal trends, it will maintain a range - bound trading pattern in the short term. Future changes in China - Canada trade relations and the subsequent impact of the China - US tariff war will affect the market. The KDJ indicator oscillates and rebounds at a low level, and although the short - term market is in range - bound trading, the indicator is at a medium - low level, so the room for further decline may be limited. The MACD oscillates and declines, but the green energy narrows, indicating that the shock consolidation trend is approaching the end. The short - term market is still in range - bound trading, and the subsequent trend needs guidance from rapeseed import policies and the influence of soybean meal [42].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-05-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2500至2580区间震荡。 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2450，基差-94，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存3.6万吨，上周1.45万吨，周环比增加148.28%，去年同期3万吨，同比增 加20%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...