Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, and Zhongguang Nuclear Mining [3][4][10]. Core Viewpoints - Supply contraction is evident, with port inventories declining again and coal prices showing sufficient elasticity. Since April, domestic production and imports from Xinjiang have significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decline of 3.8% in national raw coal production in July. The National Energy Administration has initiated production inspections in key provinces, leading to self-reduction in some overproducing mines. A comprehensive reduction in overproducing mines is expected by late August, further tightening supply. As a result, port inventories have significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, and power plant inventories have also declined. Demand has been recovering since June, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July [1][7][8]. - Coal prices have rebounded from 615 CNY/ton to 700 CNY/ton since early July, with expectations of continued upward momentum, potentially reaching levels above 800 CNY/ton and possibly breaking through 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effective. The report suggests focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has minimized the impact of the current production limits [1][7][8]. - Strong support from essential demand indicates that coking coal prices still have room for upward movement. Despite some fluctuations in coking coal prices, supply-side reductions are anticipated, and demand may see a temporary decline due to limited production expectations in Shandong and Hebei. However, strong supply contraction is also expected, suggesting potential for price increases [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a significant reduction in coal supply, with national raw coal production experiencing its first year-on-year decline in 2025, down 3.8% in July. The National Energy Administration's inspections are expected to lead to further production cuts, tightening supply conditions [1][7][35]. - Demand for coal has shown signs of recovery, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July, and coal consumption in the chemical industry also rising by 13.6% year-on-year [1][9][35]. Price Trends - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with expectations of continued increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The report anticipates that coal prices could reach levels above 800 CNY/ton and potentially exceed 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effectively implemented [1][7][8]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, such as Lu'an Huanneng, and those with stable performance and growth potential, including Jin Control Coal Industry and Huayang Co. Additionally, it suggests monitoring industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy for their robust performance [2][3][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tightening of supply in the coal industry is becoming an investment theme, with the oversupply situation expected to gradually reverse, leading to a potential increase in coal prices [1] - The demand for coal is expected to rise as temperatures increase, resulting in higher daily coal consumption in thermal power plants, which may improve the coal supply-demand balance [1] - The current inventory depletion is faster than in previous years, with the first quarter of 2025 showing a significant increase in coal inventory at northern ports due to a slowdown in industrial electricity growth and stable demand from industries like cement and chemicals [2] Group 2 - The strong demand for coal during the summer peak in 2025 is leading to rapid inventory depletion, with the inventory dynamics reflecting changes in the supply-demand environment [3] - The investment logic suggests that elastic stocks are likely to benefit from the tightening of supply, with expectations of increased thermal coal demand due to higher summer temperatures [4] - The establishment of a policy bottom for coal prices provides a profit floor for coal companies, ensuring high dividend-paying stocks have guaranteed earnings and potential valuation increases [5]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with an upward adjustment [4] Core Viewpoints - The long-term price inversion of annual contracts has been resolved, boosting market confidence. The previous inversion lasted from February 28, 2025, to August 4, 2025, leading to a decline in contract fulfillment rates. The combination of peak summer demand and anti-involution policies has accelerated the rise in market coal prices, restoring market confidence [1][2] - The bottom of coal prices has been reached, with expectations for price increases potentially exceeding market forecasts. The current rise in coal prices began with thermal coal, and the upward momentum for coking coal has outpaced that of thermal coal. The low point of the year has passed, and it is expected that prices will not decline again in the second half of the year [2] - The resolution of the long-term price inversion is likely to trigger positive feedback, enhancing contract fulfillment rates, improving spot demand, and further increasing spot prices. Coal stocks have shown a strong response to positive news, with significant upward potential remaining [2] Summary by Sections - **Market Dynamics**: The recent increase in the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port has surpassed the annual contract price, indicating a shift in market dynamics. The market is currently experiencing a recovery in confidence due to the resolution of the long-term price inversion [1][2] - **Investment Recommendations**: With the acceleration of coal price increases, coal stocks are expected to perform well. Key stocks to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanmei International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Huaibei Mining. Leading coal companies such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua also present high allocation value [2]

Core Insights - Recent coal prices have seen a broad increase, with coking coal experiencing consecutive price hikes in its second and third rounds [1] - The coal market is stabilizing and expected to benefit from seasonal demand increases, slowing production growth, and declining coal import expectations in the second half of the year [1] - The National Energy Administration has issued a notice limiting annual and monthly coal production to not exceed announced capacities, which is expected to strengthen supply contraction expectations and support coal prices [1] Market Dynamics - All coal types have experienced price increases, with CCI5500 thermal coal priced at 650 RMB/ton, reflecting an 11 RMB/ton week-on-week increase [1] - High temperatures have led to increased daily consumption and proactive stockpiling by power plants, contributing to a 7% cumulative increase in port coal prices from the bottom [1] - Coking coal prices at domestic ports rose by 240 RMB/ton to 1680 RMB/ton, marking a 37% increase since early July [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The domestic power demand has shown steady growth, while the year-on-year growth rate of domestic raw coal production continues to slow down [3] - Coal imports have seen a significant decline, with a 7.9% year-on-year decrease in coal trade volume for the first half of 2025 [3] - Supply from major production areas is stable, but certain regions are experiencing supply constraints due to accidents and maintenance, leading to a slight overall production decline [2] Recommendations - Companies with stable profit distributions in thermal coal include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others [4] - High elasticity companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and supply contraction include Lu'an Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others [4]