Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, and Zhongguang Nuclear Mining [3][4][10]. Core Viewpoints - Supply contraction is evident, with port inventories declining again and coal prices showing sufficient elasticity. Since April, domestic production and imports from Xinjiang have significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decline of 3.8% in national raw coal production in July. The National Energy Administration has initiated production inspections in key provinces, leading to self-reduction in some overproducing mines. A comprehensive reduction in overproducing mines is expected by late August, further tightening supply. As a result, port inventories have significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, and power plant inventories have also declined. Demand has been recovering since June, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July [1][7][8]. - Coal prices have rebounded from 615 CNY/ton to 700 CNY/ton since early July, with expectations of continued upward momentum, potentially reaching levels above 800 CNY/ton and possibly breaking through 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effective. The report suggests focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has minimized the impact of the current production limits [1][7][8]. - Strong support from essential demand indicates that coking coal prices still have room for upward movement. Despite some fluctuations in coking coal prices, supply-side reductions are anticipated, and demand may see a temporary decline due to limited production expectations in Shandong and Hebei. However, strong supply contraction is also expected, suggesting potential for price increases [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a significant reduction in coal supply, with national raw coal production experiencing its first year-on-year decline in 2025, down 3.8% in July. The National Energy Administration's inspections are expected to lead to further production cuts, tightening supply conditions [1][7][35]. - Demand for coal has shown signs of recovery, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July, and coal consumption in the chemical industry also rising by 13.6% year-on-year [1][9][35]. Price Trends - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with expectations of continued increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The report anticipates that coal prices could reach levels above 800 CNY/ton and potentially exceed 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effectively implemented [1][7][8]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, such as Lu'an Huanneng, and those with stable performance and growth potential, including Jin Control Coal Industry and Huayang Co. Additionally, it suggests monitoring industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy for their robust performance [2][3][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Short - term fluctuations possible, stay on the sidelines [3] - Iron ore: Short - term long positions to take profit, mid - term short positions to be laid out [9] - Coke: High - level risks rising, stay on the sidelines [10] - Coking coal: High - level risks rising, stay on the sidelines [14] - Ferroalloys: More restarts in production areas, stay on the sidelines [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The news of coal production restrictions drives the overall upward movement of the black commodity sector, strengthening the bullish market sentiment [1][4] - For steel products, the supply - demand situation of rebar is relatively balanced, while the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable with limited contradictions [1][4] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a shift from long to short sentiment [1][8] - The spot price of coke has started the third round of increases, and the fourth is imminent. The market is highly bullish [1][12] - The domestic coking coal production has rebounded, but the production restriction policy brings uncertainty. The futures market sentiment is overly bullish [1][16] - For ferroalloys, the production and operating rates of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are rising, but the ferrosilicon has high delivery inventory pressure [1][20] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Rebar** - **Price range**: [3280, 3330] [1] - **Reasons**: The production and apparent demand have both rebounded month - on - month, and the total inventory has slightly decreased. The molten iron production has slightly declined but remains at a high level. Driven by policy expectations, the market sentiment is strong, but there may be short - term fluctuations after a rapid rise [1][4][5] - **Hot - rolled coils** - **Price range**: [3440, 3500] [1] - **Reasons**: The production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The market trades around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production restriction policies. The sharp rise in raw material prices has also pushed up steel prices, but there may be short - term fluctuations after a rapid rise [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price range**: [780, 820] [1] - **Reasons**: The molten iron production has decreased, and the supply side has seen an increase in both arrivals and shipments, with more shipments expected in the future. Port inventories are rising. The previous rapid price increase may lead to a subsequent correction, so pay attention to policy expectations [1][8] - **Operation suggestion**: Short - term long positions to take profit, mid - term short positions to be laid out [9] 3.3 Coke - **Price range**: [1700, 1750] [1] - **Reasons**: The spot price has started the third round of increases, and the fourth is imminent. The news of coal production restrictions has boosted market expectations, and steel mills' restocking has made the market more bullish. The current market atmosphere is highly excited [1][12] - **Operation suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price range**: [1200, 1259] [1] - **Reasons**: The news of coal production restrictions has strengthened the bullish market sentiment, and the futures price has risen sharply recently. The domestic coking coal production has rebounded and is close to last year's level. Some mines have restarted production in July, but the production restriction policy brings uncertainty. The spot trading has improved, the market sentiment has generally improved, and inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream. However, the futures market sentiment is overly excited [1][16] - **Operation suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [17] 3.5 Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese** - **Price range**: [5840, 6050] [1] - **Reasons**: The production and operating rates have continued to rise this week. The northern production areas have stable operations, and there are more restarts in the southern production areas. The short - term demand for ferromanganese is rigidly supported by the increase in rebar production. The overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and the short - term price fluctuates with market sentiment [1][20][21] - **Ferrosilicon** - **Price range**: [5635, 5875] [1] - **Reasons**: The production and operating rates have continued to rise, but there are both maintenance and restarts in the main production areas. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure. It may face short - term correction pressure, and the price will remain under pressure without obvious improvement in fundamentals [1][20][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Short - term fluctuations possible, stay on the sidelines [3] - Iron Ore: Take partial profit on previous long positions and wait for new opportunities [6] - Coke: With high - level risks rising, stay on the sidelines [9] - Coking Coal: Due to over - excited sentiment, stay on the sidelines [13] - Ferroalloys: Cautiously bullish as market sentiment dominates [17] Core Views - Steel: For rebar, coal production restrictions drive the black sector up, but production and demand decline, and inventory rises. For hot - rolled coils, the fundamentals are stable. Rapid rallies may lead to short - term fluctuations [4][5]. - Iron Ore: Iron - making water production increases, supply and arrivals both grow. Steel mills' profits are good, but rapid rises offer profit - taking opportunities [7]. - Coke: Spot prices start the second round of increases, and market sentiment is over - excited [11]. - Coking Coal: Production restrictions boost sentiment, but domestic production is rising, and futures sentiment is over - excited [15]. - Ferroalloys: For manganese silicon, supply increases while demand decreases, and cost is supported. For ferrosilicon, there is supply - demand imbalance and high delivery inventory [19]. Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - **Market Situation**: Coal production restrictions strengthen the bullish atmosphere. Production and apparent demand decline, and inventory rises slightly. Iron - making water production increases, driving up furnace material demand expectations [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to strong policy - driven sentiment and rapid rallies, it's advisable to stay on the sidelines. Price range: [3240, 3290] [1]. Hot - rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Production, demand, and inventory change little, with limited fundamental contradictions. Market trades around policies, and rising raw materials push up steel prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After rapid rallies, short - term fluctuations are possible. Stay on the sidelines. Price range: [3400, 3450] [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - making water production increases significantly, supply and arrivals both grow, and there will be more arrivals. Ports destock, and steel mills restock. Steel mills' profits are good, driving up iron ore prices [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take partial profit on previous long positions and wait for new opportunities. Price range: [790, 830] [1]. Coke - **Market Situation**: Spot prices start the second - round increase, and there are expectations for further increases. Coal production restrictions boost sentiment, and steel mills' restocking makes the market more positive, but the atmosphere is over - excited [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines. Price range: [1660, 1750] [1]. Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Production restrictions strengthen bullish sentiment, and the price rallies. Domestic production is rising, and some mines are resuming production. Inventory transfers from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory is stable. Spot trading improves, but futures sentiment is over - excited [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines. Price range: [1100, 1200] [1]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Situation**: Supply increases while demand decreases. High - level iron - making water production doesn't offset the decline in rebar production, which drags down demand. Rising raw material prices support costs [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term trading is sentiment - driven. In the medium - term, the fundamentals will loosen, and prices may decline. Price range: [5835, 6040] [1]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Situation**: Supply increases while demand decreases. Factory inventory pressure eases, but delivery inventory is high, with obvious near - end warrant pressure. Pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term high sentiment may lead to corrections. In the medium - term, the fundamentals will loosen, and prices will decline. Price range: [5715, 5950] [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Cautiously bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term long - position profit - taking, mid - term short - position layout [1][6][7][8] - **Coke**: Stay on the sidelines [1][9][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Stay on the sidelines [1][13][15][16] - **Ferroalloys**: Cautiously bullish [1][17][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The news of coal production restrictions drives the overall upward movement of the black market, strengthening the bullish sentiment. For rebar, production and apparent demand decline month - on - month, with a slight increase in total inventory, showing off - season characteristics. The significant increase in hot metal production boosts the expected demand for furnace materials. For hot - rolled coils, production, apparent demand, and inventory change little, with a relatively stable fundamental situation and limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal production increases significantly, with both supply - side shipments and arrivals rising, and there will be more shipments later. Ports are destocking while steel mills are restocking. Recently, steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the locked - in profits on the futures market drive the strong performance of iron ore. However, as the recent rise is rapid, there are profit - taking opportunities, so previous long positions should be closed, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side reform policies [1][7]. - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increases has started, and there are still expectations for further increases. The news of coal production restrictions boosts market sentiment. After the rapid price increase, steel mills' restocking makes the market more positive. However, the current market atmosphere seems overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: The news of coal production restrictions strengthens the bullish sentiment in the market, and the futures price has risen significantly recently. In terms of supply and demand, domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching last year's level. Some shut - down coal mines have resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase later. The inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory remains stable. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. However, the futures market sentiment is overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply increases while the demand decreases. Although the hot metal production is at a high level, the month - on - month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for ferromanganese, but the slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost. For ferrosilicon, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The factory inventory pressure has been relieved, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3367 with a rise of 90; rebar 05 is at 3386 with a rise of 93; rebar 10 is at 3307 with a rise of 83. Hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3492 with a rise of 82; hot - rolled coil 05 is at 3490 with a rise of 77; hot - rolled coil 10 is at 3477 with a rise of 83. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also show certain changes [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar is expected to continue its strong performance with limited short - term decline due to policy expectations and the increase in hot metal production. Hot - rolled coils may maintain a strong short - term trend due to factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production restrictions, as well as the sharp rise in raw material prices [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore 01 is at 794 with a rise of 17; iron ore 05 is at 771 with a rise of 16; iron ore 09 is at 823 with a rise of 14. The prices of various iron ore powders also change accordingly, and there are also fluctuations in spreads, basis, freight rates, and spot indices [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should take profits, and mid - term short positions can be considered [1][8]. Coke - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1752.0 with a rise of 98.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1797.5 with a rise of 98.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1697.5 with a rise of 94.5. There are also changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as capacity utilization, production, and inventory [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines due to the over - exuberant market atmosphere [1][12]. Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1137.0 with a rise of 81.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1154.0 with a rise of 79.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1048.5 with a rise of 42.5. There are changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as the start - up rate of coal washing plants, production, and inventory [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines because of the overly exuberant futures market sentiment [1][16]. Ferroalloys - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 6084 with a rise of 120; manganese silicon 05 is at 6130 with a rise of 142; manganese silicon 09 is at 6012 with a rise of 98. Silicon iron 01 is at 5952 with a rise of 206; silicon iron 05 is at 6012 with a rise of 220; silicon iron 09 is at 5874 with a rise of 206. There are also changes in spot prices, spreads, and weekly data such as enterprise start - up rates and production [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, short - term trading is mainly driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the price may face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state. For ferrosilicon, the short - term high market sentiment may lead to a correction, and in the medium term, the price will still face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state [1][20].