Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, and Zhongguang Nuclear Mining [3][4][10]. Core Viewpoints - Supply contraction is evident, with port inventories declining again and coal prices showing sufficient elasticity. Since April, domestic production and imports from Xinjiang have significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decline of 3.8% in national raw coal production in July. The National Energy Administration has initiated production inspections in key provinces, leading to self-reduction in some overproducing mines. A comprehensive reduction in overproducing mines is expected by late August, further tightening supply. As a result, port inventories have significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, and power plant inventories have also declined. Demand has been recovering since June, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July [1][7][8]. - Coal prices have rebounded from 615 CNY/ton to 700 CNY/ton since early July, with expectations of continued upward momentum, potentially reaching levels above 800 CNY/ton and possibly breaking through 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effective. The report suggests focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has minimized the impact of the current production limits [1][7][8]. - Strong support from essential demand indicates that coking coal prices still have room for upward movement. Despite some fluctuations in coking coal prices, supply-side reductions are anticipated, and demand may see a temporary decline due to limited production expectations in Shandong and Hebei. However, strong supply contraction is also expected, suggesting potential for price increases [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a significant reduction in coal supply, with national raw coal production experiencing its first year-on-year decline in 2025, down 3.8% in July. The National Energy Administration's inspections are expected to lead to further production cuts, tightening supply conditions [1][7][35]. - Demand for coal has shown signs of recovery, with total electricity generation increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in July, and coal consumption in the chemical industry also rising by 13.6% year-on-year [1][9][35]. Price Trends - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with expectations of continued increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The report anticipates that coal prices could reach levels above 800 CNY/ton and potentially exceed 1000 CNY/ton if production cuts are effectively implemented [1][7][8]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot price elasticity, such as Lu'an Huanneng, and those with stable performance and growth potential, including Jin Control Coal Industry and Huayang Co. Additionally, it suggests monitoring industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy for their robust performance [2][3][10].

| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | 观望 | 煤炭限产消息带动黑色整体上行，市场偏暖氛围进一步加强。螺纹产量表 | | | 需环比均回升，总库存小幅下降，供需相对平衡。铁水产量小幅回落，绝 | | 螺纹钢 | 对水平仍高。政策预期之下市场情绪整体较强，但快速拉涨后短期或有反 | | | 复，观望为宜。【3280，3330】 | | 观望 | 热卷产量、表需小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。近期 | | | 市场围绕宏观政策、反内卷、行业限产政策等因素进行交易，原料端大幅 | | 热卷 | 上行也推动了钢材表现偏强，快速拉涨后短期或有反复，观望为宜。【3440， | | | 3500】 | | 铁矿石 短多止盈 | 基本面看，铁水产量转降，供给端发到货双增，后续发货仍有增量。港口 | | | 增库。盘面看，前期上涨较快，后期恐有回调，关注政策预期。【780，820】 | | 焦炭 离场观望 | 现货开启第三轮提涨，第四轮提涨也已箭在弦上。煤炭限产消息提振预期， | | | 市场情绪加强。同时在行情快速拉涨后，钢厂补库也在一定程度上促使市 | | | 场心态 ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3324 | -43 | 热卷01 | 3448 | -44 | | 螺纹05 | 3350 | -36 | 热卷05 | 3459 | -31 | | 螺纹10 | 3274 | -33 | 热卷10 | 3438 | -39 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 3110 | -20 | 张家港废钢 | 2140 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3260 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3410 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3380 | 10 | 热卷:上海 | 3450 | -20 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3430 | 10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3500 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3480 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3480 | -10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3430 | 1 0 | 热卷:成都 | 3570 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Cautiously bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term long - position profit - taking, mid - term short - position layout [1][6][7][8] - **Coke**: Stay on the sidelines [1][9][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Stay on the sidelines [1][13][15][16] - **Ferroalloys**: Cautiously bullish [1][17][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The news of coal production restrictions drives the overall upward movement of the black market, strengthening the bullish sentiment. For rebar, production and apparent demand decline month - on - month, with a slight increase in total inventory, showing off - season characteristics. The significant increase in hot metal production boosts the expected demand for furnace materials. For hot - rolled coils, production, apparent demand, and inventory change little, with a relatively stable fundamental situation and limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal production increases significantly, with both supply - side shipments and arrivals rising, and there will be more shipments later. Ports are destocking while steel mills are restocking. Recently, steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the locked - in profits on the futures market drive the strong performance of iron ore. However, as the recent rise is rapid, there are profit - taking opportunities, so previous long positions should be closed, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side reform policies [1][7]. - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increases has started, and there are still expectations for further increases. The news of coal production restrictions boosts market sentiment. After the rapid price increase, steel mills' restocking makes the market more positive. However, the current market atmosphere seems overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: The news of coal production restrictions strengthens the bullish sentiment in the market, and the futures price has risen significantly recently. In terms of supply and demand, domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching last year's level. Some shut - down coal mines have resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase later. The inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory remains stable. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. However, the futures market sentiment is overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply increases while the demand decreases. Although the hot metal production is at a high level, the month - on - month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for ferromanganese, but the slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost. For ferrosilicon, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The factory inventory pressure has been relieved, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3367 with a rise of 90; rebar 05 is at 3386 with a rise of 93; rebar 10 is at 3307 with a rise of 83. Hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3492 with a rise of 82; hot - rolled coil 05 is at 3490 with a rise of 77; hot - rolled coil 10 is at 3477 with a rise of 83. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also show certain changes [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar is expected to continue its strong performance with limited short - term decline due to policy expectations and the increase in hot metal production. Hot - rolled coils may maintain a strong short - term trend due to factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production restrictions, as well as the sharp rise in raw material prices [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore 01 is at 794 with a rise of 17; iron ore 05 is at 771 with a rise of 16; iron ore 09 is at 823 with a rise of 14. The prices of various iron ore powders also change accordingly, and there are also fluctuations in spreads, basis, freight rates, and spot indices [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should take profits, and mid - term short positions can be considered [1][8]. Coke - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1752.0 with a rise of 98.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1797.5 with a rise of 98.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1697.5 with a rise of 94.5. There are also changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as capacity utilization, production, and inventory [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines due to the over - exuberant market atmosphere [1][12]. Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1137.0 with a rise of 81.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1154.0 with a rise of 79.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1048.5 with a rise of 42.5. There are changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as the start - up rate of coal washing plants, production, and inventory [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines because of the overly exuberant futures market sentiment [1][16]. Ferroalloys - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 6084 with a rise of 120; manganese silicon 05 is at 6130 with a rise of 142; manganese silicon 09 is at 6012 with a rise of 98. Silicon iron 01 is at 5952 with a rise of 206; silicon iron 05 is at 6012 with a rise of 220; silicon iron 09 is at 5874 with a rise of 206. There are also changes in spot prices, spreads, and weekly data such as enterprise start - up rates and production [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, short - term trading is mainly driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the price may face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state. For ferrosilicon, the short - term high market sentiment may lead to a correction, and in the medium term, the price will still face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state [1][20].