研究中心能化团队 2025/12/01 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/24 | 58.84 | 62.22 | 64.50 | 0.48 | 0.59 | -3.38 | 0.29 | 189.66 | 17.44 | 240.61 | 38.84 | | 2025/11/25 | 57.95 | 62.48 | 64.33 | 0.52 | 0.68 | -4.53 | 0.30 | 185.72 | 15.52 | 235.38 | 36.38 | | 2025/11/26 | 58. ...

在周日（11月30日）的会议上， OPEC+确认维持2026年第一季度的石油产量水平不变。由于担心供应过剩风险，该组织放慢了其试图夺 回市场份额的步伐 。 OPEC+是石油输出国组织（OPEC）与以俄罗斯为首的数个非OPEC产油国组成的石油合作机制，旨在通过协调产量政策稳定国际石油市场 价格，是全球石油市场的重要影响力量。OPEC+成员国的石油产量占世界石油产量的一半。 在此会议召开之际，美国正再度推动俄罗斯与乌克兰达成和平协议。如果对俄罗斯的制裁放松，全球石油供应或进一步增加。 前OPEC官员、现任Rystad Energy地缘政治分析主管的Jorge Leon表示："该组织发出的信息很明确：在市场前景迅速恶化之际，稳 定重于扩张雄心。" 受上述消息影响，国际油价周一亚盘一度上涨1.5% 。 上周五，国际油价小幅下跌。纽约原油期货和布伦特原油期货主力合约价格11月分 别累计下跌3.98%和2.87%，为连续第四个月下跌，也是2023年以来的最长连跌纪录。 上个月，摩根大通、高盛等多家华尔街机构集中下调油价预测，核心逻辑均指向全球石油市场严重供应过剩，叠加俄乌和谈可能释放俄罗斯 供应等因素，油价短期和中期承压 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在国际原油价格持续疲软以及全球石油市场供应过剩迹象日益明显的情况下，欧佩克+将坚持第一季度暂停增产的计划。 沙特阿拉伯牵头的关键成员国在周日举行的一系列视频会议后，确认了本月初首次宣布的为期三个月的供应暂停。他们在声明中重申，这一决定反映了对季 节性市场疲软的预期。 石油输出国组织及其盟友还批准了审查各成员国产能的机制，这一敏感的程序将有助于设定2027年的产量配额。它们选择总部位于达拉斯的DeGolyer and MacNaughton勘探咨询公司进行大部分评估工作。 尽管暂停增产表明该联盟在早先迅速恢复石油产量之后变得谨慎，但它仍然将使世界石油市场在2026年初出现显著过剩，这可能会对油价造成进一步的压 力。 雷斯塔能源公司分析师豪尔赫•莱昂表示："欧佩克+选择保持克制，维持其当前战略。该组织发出的信息很明确：在市场前景迅速恶化之际，稳定比雄心更 重要。" 由于美洲石油供应的繁荣，加上欧佩克+的增产，超过了需求的增长，今年布伦特原油期货价格已下跌15%，至每桶63美元左右，持续徘徊在今年以来的价 格低位附近。 欧佩克+减产 冻结产量三个月为欧佩克+争取到了一些时间，使其可以评估地缘政治 ...

格隆汇11月30日｜欧佩克+即将召开会议评估全球石油市场，鉴于供应过剩的迹象日益明显，该联盟的 产油国仍有望在明年第一季度暂停增加供应。几位代表表示，这个由沙特和俄罗斯领导的联盟可能会坚 持本月早些时候达成的计划，即在12月进行一次适度的增产，随后在明年头三个月保持产量稳定。尽管 这次暂停表明欧佩克及其合作伙伴在今年早些时候迅速恢复石油生产后表现出一定的谨慎，但这仍然使 得全球市场在2026年初面临显著的供应过剩，可能会进一步给油价带来压力。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-19原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 1.基本面：欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表Kaja Kallas表示，莫斯科针对欧盟的攻击应被视为恐怖主义。 此番言论发表之际，柴油市场供应趋紧；消息人士称，由于乌克兰无人机周五发动袭击，俄罗斯新罗 西斯克港口的原油装运比原定计划晚了2到3天；欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯表示，欧佩克预计2026年不会 出现石油供应过剩，并猛烈抨击媒体对其《月度石油市场报告》的报道失实；中性 2.基差：11月18日，阿曼原油现货价为64.70美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.16美元/桶，基差 30.76元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC Secretary General Al Ghais stated that OPEC does not expect an oil supply surplus in 2026 and criticized media misinterpretations of its monthly oil market report [2] Group 1: OPEC's Market Predictions - OPEC's report indicates that the oil market is expected to balance next year, correcting earlier predictions of a supply shortage, which led to a sell-off in the oil market and a decline in international benchmark oil prices [2] - Non-OPEC oil-producing countries are projected to increase oil supply by 1.3 million barrels per day by 2026, while oil demand is expected to grow by 1.6 million barrels per day, reaching a total demand of 106.2 million barrels per day [2] Group 2: Media and Analyst Reactions - Al Ghais emphasized that the information in OPEC's monthly report is straightforward and that media misreporting is to blame for the distorted narrative regarding market surplus [2] - A recent survey of 25 traders and analysts indicated that most expect OPEC to continue increasing production monthly, with only a few anticipating a longer pause or a reversal of current production policies [3] - Analysts suggest that OPEC+ is unlikely to cut production in 2026, as the organization is focused on regaining market share [3]

国际能源署13日发布最新月度报告，预测因产油国增产、需求增速减缓因素，今明两年全球石油将继续供大于求，2026年过剩供应量可达日均409万桶。 按照路透社说法，国际能源署这份报告就全球油市供应过剩趋势发出最新警告。日均409万桶相当于全球需求约4%，这比其他机构预测的供应过剩规模大得 多。 报告预测，2025年全球石油供应增速约为日均310万桶，2026年增速为日均250万桶；明年需求增速为日均77万桶，较上月预测数值日均增加7万桶，主要缘 于化工厂需求增加。 报告说，由于全球石油供应加大而需求增长依然较缓，"全球油市供需状况显现进一步失衡迹象"。石油 输出国组织（欧佩克）和俄罗斯等非欧佩克产油国从4月起协同增产，美国和巴西等国也增加产出。 国际能源署数据显示，相比今年年初时，10月全球石油产量日均增加620万桶，欧佩克与非欧佩克国家均摊了增量。欧佩克最大产油国沙特阿拉伯贡献了日 均150万桶增量，非欧佩克产油国中，俄罗斯因西方制裁和能源设施遭袭等原因，仅贡献日均12万桶增量。尽管美国对俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司这两 大俄出口油企的制裁拟于11月21日生效，俄罗斯的石油出口尚未受到显著影响。 报告还显示，全 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of a global oil supply surplus potentially leading to further price declines, oil traders do not expect OPEC+ to cut production next year [1][2] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Outlook - A survey of 25 brokers and analysts indicates that nearly two-thirds believe OPEC+ will not reduce output next year, with less than one-third expecting any cuts, marking the first such action in over two years [2] - OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, decided in April to quickly restore previously suspended oil production, surprising the market despite ample supply, aiming to regain market share [2][6] - Only 8 out of 25 respondents in the survey anticipate OPEC+ will limit production next year, with 12 expecting no restrictions unless there is a significant market downturn [6] Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Pressure - Brent crude oil futures have dropped 14% this year to around $64 per barrel, putting financial pressure on OPEC+ members, with some analysts predicting further declines [5][8] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day, a situation not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, due to weak demand and strong supply from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana [7] - Energy consulting firms suggest that OPEC+ may need to take action to prevent significant inventory accumulation and price drops [7] Group 3: Strategic Shifts and Future Projections - Analysts believe that OPEC+ is focused on regaining market share rather than cutting production, with expectations that the supply surplus will be smaller than IEA's predictions [8][11] - If OPEC+ can navigate through the weak oil market early next year, they may find themselves in a stronger position by the end of 2026 [8][11] - The shift in strategy may be influenced by geopolitical factors and the need for OPEC+ to adapt to changing market dynamics [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [3] Core Views - Global oil inventories are expected to continue increasing until 2026, with the EIA forecasting a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day for this year [5][11] - The EIA has raised its price forecasts for crude oil and natural gas for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average crude oil price of $69 per barrel in 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 [6][8] - Demand growth for global oil is projected at 790,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 770,000 barrels per day in 2026, with significant contributions from the US, China, and Nigeria [8][45] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The EIA and IEA have both adjusted their global oil supply forecasts upwards by 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day due to OPEC's announced production increases [10][11] - The EIA expects global oil production to rise by 2.81 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.39 million barrels per day in 2026 [10][11] - The IEA anticipates a demand increase of 310,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a total average supply reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [46][47] Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.39 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.19%, while WTI futures rose to $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% [20] - The number of active oil rigs in the US increased to 549, with a slight week-on-week rise [35] Refining Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining profitability due to rising product price spreads, despite current levels being relatively low [5][13] - The Singapore refining margin increased to $24.26 per barrel, while the US gasoline-WTI spread decreased to $20.84 per barrel [5] Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA and polyester filament yarn has improved, with PTA prices rising to 4,585.4 CNY per ton [5][13] - The report suggests a recovery in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift [13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5][13] - It also highlights the resilience of oil companies like PetroChina and CNOOC in the face of potential price declines, recommending those with high dividend yields [13]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant oversupply in the global oil market, with a daily surplus expected to exceed 4 million barrels by 2026, which is about 4% of global demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IEA's report highlights that the global oil market will continue to experience an imbalance between supply and demand due to increased production from oil-exporting countries and a slowdown in demand growth [1]. - OPEC and non-OPEC countries have coordinated to increase production since April, contributing to the rising supply levels [1]. - Global oil supply is projected to grow by an average of 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, while demand growth for next year is expected to be 770,000 barrels per day [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Changes - As of September, global oil inventories have surged to nearly 8 billion barrels, the highest level since July 2021, primarily due to increased storage from maritime transport [2]. - In October, global oil production increased by an average of 6.2 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year, with Saudi Arabia contributing 1.5 million barrels per day to this increase [2]. - Despite sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russia's oil exports have not been significantly impacted, contributing only 120,000 barrels per day to the overall increase [2].