证 券 研 究 报 告 盈利新周期，估值新起点，迎银行长牛 2026年银行业投资策略 证券分析师： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 李禹昊 A0230525070004 联系人： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 2025.11.18 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 站在当下，我们更为坚定地看好银行板块正处于长牛修复的起点：2018年以来银行板块从"破净"到估值深度承压（最低0.49倍PB）再到当前行业整体 仍仅约0.7倍PB，核心压制无外乎两点："看不清的风险趋势"、"难以扭转的盈利下行"。相对乐观的是，这两点在当下都已"拨云见日"。 ◼ 不容忽视，银行板块价值回归的资金驱动力：1）"前所未有的低利率环境"是带动增量资金流向红利板块最直接驱动，银行板块性价比更优。对标美国 和日本，低利率环境中红利高股息策略总体跑赢，也是险资更为青睐的投资方向；而当前银行指数股息率约4.3%，较十年国债利率溢价位居过去十年超 70%分位，在红利板块中性价比更为突出。2）耐心资本入市仅是开端，以险资为代 ...

自由现金流是红利分配的基础，但更侧重企业内生增长能力， 而红利策略侧重股息分配结果，两类策 略通常在行业分布上有一定互补性。此外，自由现金流策略或可作为平衡成长股投资的底仓工具，自由 现金流ETF（159201）及其联接基金（A：023917；C：023918）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，基金 管理费年费率为0.15%，托管费年费率为0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平，最大程度让利投资者。 11月18日，国证自由现金流指数低位震荡，现跌约1.2%，成分股亚翔集成、联发股份、指南针等领 涨。相关ETF方面，同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF（159201）跟随指数调整，迎低位布局机会。自由 现金流ETF近7天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2.4亿元净流入，合计"吸金"10.63亿元，最新规模 达66.56亿元，创成立以来新高。 招商证券分析称，本周继续维持震荡市的判断，核心原因有两点：一是交易维度仍未好转，二是基本面 维度有喜有忧。风格观点上，从看好小盘风格再度转向看好大盘风格，核心原因是虽然存量资金有切换 至小盘风格的动能，但增量资金却开始给出近半年内少见的连续收缩信号。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a dividend investment strategy employed by an individual named O'Shiggins, who selected the top 10 highest dividend-yielding stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average each year, achieving an average annual compounded return of 18% from 1975 to 1999, significantly outperforming the market average of 3% [1] - The article highlights the importance of dividend yield as a key determinant of long-term stock market returns, as identified by John Bogle, the father of index funds, emphasizing that while earnings growth and price-to-earnings ratio changes are uncertain, dividend yield provides a reliable positive return [1] - The current dividend yield of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's central enterprise dividend ETF (513910) is reported at 5.59%, which is higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 3.77% as of November 17, 2025 [1] Performance Metrics - The ETF has shown a 25.27% increase over the past six months, from May 19, 2025, to November 17, 2025 [3] - Over the past year, the ETF has increased by 39.85%, from November 18, 2024, to November 17, 2025 [3] - The two-year performance shows a remarkable increase of 90.96%, from November 20, 2023, to November 17, 2025 [3] - The three-year performance indicates a substantial rise of 112.69%, from November 18, 2022, to November 17, 2025 [3]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 国泰海通指出，当前市场环境下，投资者对高股息资产的配置需求持续存在，尤其是具备稳定现金流和 分红能力的优质资产。红利策略在无风险收益下行周期中仍具吸引力，其低波动特性与市场对确定性收 益的追求形成共振。 红利国企ETF（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从市场中筛选具有稳定分红历史的 上市公司证券作为指数样本，主要覆盖金融、能源及工业等传统领域，以反映高分红企业证券的整体表 现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of various dividend-focused ETFs and indices, showcasing their recent returns and volatility metrics, indicating a mixed performance in the market. Group 1: Dividend ETFs Performance - The latest dividend yield for the S&P Dividend ETF is 4.92% as of November 14, 2025, with a one-year return of 5.32% and an annualized volatility of 11.44% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF has a recent dividend yield of 5.54%, with a one-year return of 2.00% and an annualized volatility of 11.46% [1] - The A500 Dividend Low Volatility ETF shows a one-year return of 8.53% and an annualized volatility of 9.67% [2] Group 2: Index Performance Comparison - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index has a one-year return of 35.5% with an annualized volatility of 12.17% [2] - The performance of the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period shows a return of 18.07% with an annualized volatility of 11.46% [2] - The A800 Dividend Low Volatility Index has a one-year return of 9.59% and a recent weekly return of 0.20% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities announced a strategic focus on differentiated investment strategies, including dividend, value, and growth stocks, starting from 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company plans to increase its allocation in dividend strategy stocks, leading to a corresponding rise in other equity instrument investments [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 红利国企ETF（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从沪市选取现金股息率高、分红稳 定且具有一定规模及流动性的证券作为指数样本，以反映高股息率证券的整体表现。指数成分股主要分 布在能源、金融、工业等行业，权重结构较为分散，旨在为投资者提供稳定的股息收益。 财通证券指出，在景气弱复苏环境下，红利与TMT板块呈现相互摆动特征；当前TMT板块存在止盈动 力，使得红利策略阶段性占优。叠加红利相对表现已回升至2023年初水平，其胜率与赔率均呈现向好趋 势。从资金面看，主力资金当前主要关注杠杆资金，后续可能转向险资和汇金托底资金，此类资金偏好 更倾向于红利资产。此外，年底若市场进入震荡阶段，日历效应显示银行与红利板块是配置首选，尤其 在政策窗口期前1个月至会议后阶段，红利风格表现相对稳健。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The two ETFs under China Merchants Fund, namely the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) and the CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209), are demonstrating stable cash flow return capabilities with their recent dividend distributions, marking the seventh and fifth distributions of the year respectively [1] Group 1: Dividend Distribution Details - The dividend distribution record date for both ETFs is set for November 14, 2025 [1] - The unit dividend for the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF is 0.0030 CNY, with a dividend ratio of 0.26% based on a net asset value of 1.1626 CNY [2] - The unit dividend for the CSI Dividend Quality ETF is 0.0040 CNY, with a dividend ratio of 0.33% based on a net asset value of 1.2056 CNY [2] - The payout dates are November 19, 2025, for the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF and November 20, 2025, for the CSI Dividend Quality ETF [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy Insights - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) follows a "deep value" strategy, focusing on "high dividend + low volatility" factors, primarily investing in defensive sectors such as finance, energy, and utilities, with a dividend yield close to 6% [3] - The CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) adopts a "value growth" strategy, emphasizing "high dividend + high quality," selecting high-quality companies from growth sectors like consumer and pharmaceuticals, maintaining a dividend yield of 3%-5% while showing better price elasticity [3] - Investors are advised to adjust their allocations based on risk preferences, with conservative investors leaning towards the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF for stable returns, while aggressive investors may focus on the CSI Dividend Quality ETF for growth opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market present investment opportunities due to the expectation gap among investors [1][4] - It anticipates a shift from a bearish to a bullish trend, driven by several positive catalysts including advancements in China's technology sector, improved Sino-US relations, and supportive government policies [4][6] - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, focusing on aggressive investments in technology and non-ferrous metals while maintaining defensive positions in dividend stocks and turnaround opportunities [2][4] Market Analysis - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing marginal slowdown, but the new economy, particularly technology, is showing strong growth with a reported profit growth rate of 31.7% [4][8] - The easing of tensions in Sino-US relations is expected to enhance market sentiment, with several agreements reached to alleviate trade disputes [14][17] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is set to provide additional support for economic transformation and domestic demand, with policies aimed at technological innovation and macroeconomic stability [18][19] Liquidity and Valuation - Continuous net inflows from foreign and southbound funds are expected, with the report highlighting a significant net inflow of 9 billion USD from foreign investors in October [24][37] - The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is considered attractive, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a P/E ratio of 12.0, significantly lower than other major global indices [50][54] - The report emphasizes that the risk premium for Hong Kong stocks is notably high compared to the S&P 500, indicating a favorable investment environment [50][51] Investment Strategy - The report advocates for a focus on the AI industry chain and non-ferrous metals as key growth sectors, while also recommending investments in essential consumer goods that are showing signs of recovery [4][6] - The strategy includes a defensive approach towards high-dividend stocks, which are expected to remain in demand due to increasing interest from southbound funds and insurance capital [4][6] - The long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations of a gradual upward trend supported by improved economic conditions and continued foreign investment [60]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning for the end of the year, suggesting that bank dividends are a preferred observation strategy if the market experiences a pause in volatility [4] - It highlights the need to wait for a renewed confidence in high-growth sectors over the next 2-3 years, particularly in technology and services [5][10] - The report reviews the market's performance, noting a significant increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, which has risen over 10% to above 3800 points since the mid-year strategy [6][9] Market Overview - The report indicates that the market may experience a phase of consolidation due to external factors such as weakening U.S. economic indicators and concerns over employment, which could lead to a risk-off sentiment affecting A-shares [6][9] - It notes that the market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with trading volumes not yet activated and sectors undergoing accelerated rotation [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a proactive approach to market conditions, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, particularly in real estate, resource commodities, and consumer sentiment [11][12] - It recommends monitoring high-growth sectors that are difficult to disprove, such as storage, domestic computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while waiting for a consensus on performance [12] Fund Flow Analysis - The report discusses the potential for fund managers to reduce positions as the year-end approaches, indicating a trend towards profit-taking [13] - It highlights that leverage funds are still flowing in but at a slower pace, suggesting a need to watch for a potential slowdown in inflows [13][28] Calendar Effect Insights - The report analyzes the calendar effect, noting that the market generally trends upward in early November but may weaken following economic meetings [14][31] - It provides insights into market performance across different styles and sectors, indicating a shift towards dividend and quality stocks post-meeting [15][16]