电力设备新能源行业点评 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月20日 国信电新观点：内蒙古、宁夏两个自治区首个新能源合作重点项目——国家电投铝电公司降碳增绿项目获 批实施，该项目是全国首个跨省区绿电直连项目。 投资建议：绿电直连项目的推进利好一二次配电设备需求。建议关注四方股份、特锐德及许继电气。 风险提示：国内电网投资不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 评论： 全国首个跨省区绿电直连项目获批实施，配电设备需求有望增长 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  电力设备 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 王蔚祺 | 010-88005313 | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520080003 | | 证券分析师： | 王晓声 | 010-88005231 | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523050002 | 全国首个跨省区绿电直连项目获批实施：近日，内蒙古、宁夏自治区首个新能源合作重点项目——国家电 投铝电公司降碳增绿项目获批实施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first integrated green electricity direct connection project for data centers in Inner Mongolia marks a significant step towards sustainable energy use in the data industry [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The Ulanqab Zhongjin Data Low-Carbon Computing Power Base project has officially commenced operations, establishing the first integrated source-network-load-storage project for data centers in China [1] - This project aligns with the national strategy for direct green electricity connections and utilizes the electricity load of the Ulanqab Chahar High-tech Development Zone computing power center [1] Group 2: Technical Details - The project employs an integrated model of "source-network-load-storage," which includes wind and solar power generation, intelligent transmission, grid connection, and energy storage peak regulation [1] - The renewable energy facility is located in Chayouqianqi, Ulanqab City, with a total installed capacity of 300,000 kilowatts, comprising 200,000 kilowatts from wind power and 100,000 kilowatts from solar power [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Qinghai Provincial Energy Bureau has issued the "Implementation Plan for Green Power Direct Connection," aiming to promote the integration of renewable energy production and consumption, enhance the utilization of green energy, and meet the green energy needs of enterprises [6][8]. Summary by Sections Project Types and Scope - Four types of green power direct connection projects are to be promoted: 1. New loads that can be matched with renewable energy projects. 2. Existing loads that can develop green power direct connections after paying the renewable energy development fund, reducing output from self-supplied coal and gas power plants. 3. Export-oriented enterprises with rigid carbon reduction demands utilizing surrounding renewable resources for existing load direct connections. 4. Renewable energy projects that have not yet connected to the grid or are limited by renewable energy consumption can develop direct connections after completing necessary procedures [3][8]. Technical Requirements - Green power direct connection projects must clarify investment entities, optimize internal resource coordination, and adhere to the principle of "load determining source" for grid-connected projects. The annual self-generated electricity should account for at least 60% of total available generation and 30% of total electricity consumption, with a target of 35% by 2030. The proportion of grid-connected electricity should not exceed 20% [11][9][10]. System Flexibility Enhancement - Projects should enhance flexibility through reasonable energy storage configuration and load adjustment potential, minimizing system adjustment pressure. The maximum load peak-to-valley difference should be reasonably determined [2][13]. Key Work Tasks - Strengthening overall planning and project reserve, establishing a project reserve library, and accelerating the organization of demonstration projects that promote renewable energy consumption and meet enterprise needs [14][15]. Implementation Organization - Local energy departments are responsible for organizing the implementation of demonstration projects, ensuring quality and timely completion, and providing fair access to grid services for projects meeting connection conditions [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The storage energy industry is experiencing new opportunities despite the cessation of mandatory storage requirements, with various supportive policies emerging at both local and national levels [1][3][4]. Policy Developments - The Yunnan Province has introduced the "Yunnan Green Power Direct Connection Implementation Plan," which emphasizes the reasonable configuration of storage systems for green power projects [1]. - National policies, such as the "Zero Carbon Park Construction Notice" and the "Green Data Center Work Notice," encourage the integration of storage in renewable energy projects [1][3]. - The "136" document issued in February 2023 halted the mandatory storage requirements that had been in place for nearly eight years, allowing for a more flexible approach to storage configuration [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The cessation of mandatory storage has not led to a decline in the storage sector; instead, it has opened up new possibilities for development [3][4]. - The new policies indicate that while storage is no longer a prerequisite for project approval, it remains essential for the successful operation of renewable energy projects [7]. Emerging Scenarios - Three key scenarios are identified for the future of the storage industry: 1. **Zero Carbon Parks**: These parks require significant renewable energy development, making storage a necessary component to address the variability of renewable sources [8]. 2. **Green Power Direct Connection**: This model allows renewable energy to be supplied directly to users, with storage playing a critical role in stabilizing supply and enhancing project profitability [9][11]. 3. **Data Centers**: The demand for continuous power in data centers necessitates the use of storage to balance energy supply and ensure efficiency [12]. Economic Considerations - The new policies encourage storage integration but raise concerns about the economic viability of projects, as storage may be viewed merely as a cost rather than a market participant [13][16]. - The industry faces challenges related to economic pressures, with some projects experiencing financial losses due to high initial investments and ongoing maintenance costs [14][16]. - The potential for a price war and low-quality competition is a concern, as companies may resort to cost-cutting measures that compromise project integrity [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [4][64]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights and the implementation plans in Zhejiang and Hainan provinces [3][35]. - The public utility sector index increased by 1.11% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [2][12]. - The report suggests a focus on leading companies in the renewable energy sector due to favorable policies and expected improvements in project performance [8][7]. Market Performance - The public utility sector index's PE (TTM) is 17.43, slightly up from 17.38 the previous week, and down from 18.94 a year ago [23][26]. - The public utility sector index's PB (TTM) is 1.75, up from 1.74 the previous week, and down from 1.98 a year ago [26]. - The top-performing stocks for the week include Huayin Power (+40.89%), YN Energy (+25.1%), and Jingyun Tong (+22.32%) [29][30]. Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set binding indicators for renewable energy consumption responsibility weights for 2025 [35]. - The report discusses the establishment of zero-carbon parks and the implementation of green electricity direct connection plans in Yunnan province [36][37]. - Hainan's pricing mechanism for new energy projects has been clarified, with competitive pricing ranges established for onshore and offshore wind projects [37][38]. Key Data Tracking - As of July 11, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) is 624 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.3% [42]. - The trading volume of wind and solar energy certificates totaled 5.4 and 3.65 million respectively during the week [45]. - The national CEA trading volume for the week was 51.5 thousand tons, with an average price of 74.30 CNY/ton [49][51].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Industrial Silicon: Monitor Warehouse Receipt Registration; Polysilicon: Policy Disturbance Amplifies Market Fluctuations [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon investors should pay attention to warehouse receipt registration, while polysilicon market faces policy - induced fluctuations [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2509 had a closing price of 8,470 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,468,586 lots and an open interest of 381,237 lots. PS2508 closed at 41,345 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,014,567 lots and an open interest of 98,601 lots [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varied by different benchmarks. For example, the premium to East - China Si5530 was +210 yuan/ton, and to Tianjin 99 silicon was +110 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium to N - type recycled material was +7815 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices**: East - China oxygen - fed Si5530 was priced at 8750 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 at 9900 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type recycled material at 46000 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon plant profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) were - 2596 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) were - 4559 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits were - 1.2 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, enterprise inventory was 17.4 million tons, and industry inventory was 72.5 million tons. Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 27.6 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. showed different trends. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore was 340 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore was 320 yuan/ton [2] - **Photovoltaic Products**: Silicon wafers (N - type - 182mm) were priced at 1 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - M10) at 0.225 yuan/watt, and components (N - type - 182mm) at 0.65 yuan/watt [2] - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloys**: DMC was priced at 10450 yuan/ton, and ADC12 was priced at 20100 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - On July 8, Yunnan's relevant departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Direct Green Power Connection in Yunnan Province" to promote local conversion of green power resources [3] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. These forecasts are influenced by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Facing disturbances from tariff issues, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9]. - **Silver**: In a high - level oscillation, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][5][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously increasing, putting pressure on prices. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral outlook [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Operating within a range, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][14]. - **Lead**: Showing a mid - term upward trend, with a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][19][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price center is moving up. Aluminum has a trend strength of 0, alumina has a trend strength of 1, and casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between macro and fundamental factors, resulting in an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][27][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and macro - expectations, leading to an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the number of warehouse receipts is relatively small. The oscillating pattern may continue, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][37][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, resulting in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Due to sector sentiment resonance, they are in a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Cost expectations may rise, leading to a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][50][53]. - **Coke**: Oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][55][58]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][56][58]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the market is stabilizing with oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][60][63]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited [2][62]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking upward drivers [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Waiting for the USDA report, with a rebound and oscillation trend [2][64]. - **Soybean**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating [2][64]. - **Corn**: Undergoing oscillating adjustments [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of tight old - crop inventory continues to support futures prices [2][68]. - **Egg**: As the peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the expected difference [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: Spot sentiment is weakening, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices [2][71]. - **Peanut**: There is support at the lower level [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and renewable energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Energy Administration have jointly issued a notice to promote the construction of national-level zero-carbon parks, encouraging local departments to recommend suitable parks for this initiative [3] - The energy-saving wind power company has approved an investment of 2.09 billion RMB to construct a 500MW green power supply project in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to connect to the grid by the end of December 2026 [4] - The national encouragement of zero-carbon parks and green electricity direct connection projects will benefit the demand for distribution equipment at the park level and incremental distribution network equipment, particularly for DC technology [1][3] Summary by Sections National-Level Zero-Carbon Park Initiative - The notice requires local departments to recommend up to two parks for national-level zero-carbon park construction by August 22 [3] - It emphasizes the development and utilization of renewable energy in and around the parks, supporting the matching of parks with nearby non-fossil energy generation resources [3] Investment Projects - The energy-saving wind power project will install 50 wind turbines with a capacity of 10MW each and includes the construction of a 220kV booster substation and a 75MW/300MWh energy storage system [4] - The generated electricity will be consumed by two ferroalloy companies in the Beijing-Mongolia cooperation industrial park [4] Company Recommendations - Investment suggestions include companies such as Teruid and Sifang Co., with projected net profits for 2024 at 9.2 billion RMB and 7.2 billion RMB respectively [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment industry [4] Core Insights - The dual carbon strategy emphasizes the coexistence of highly clean power generation and highly electrified power consumption, with the grid serving as a crucial link between the two [4][7] - The development of ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology is essential for achieving carbon neutrality, but progress has been slower than expected [4][8] - The distribution network is critical for renewable energy consumption, yet investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has fallen short of expectations [4][39] Summary by Sections Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) - UHV is a key component of the dual carbon strategy, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan for over 30,000 kilometers of lines and a capacity of 340 million kilovolt-amperes [8] - The actual progress of UHV projects has been below expectations, with only eight projects likely to be completed by 2025 [16][18] - The shift towards flexible direct current technology is noted, as it allows for higher proportions of renewable energy to be transmitted [22][24] Distribution Network - The distribution network's role has evolved significantly post-dual carbon strategy, requiring upgrades to accommodate distributed energy resources [39][40] - Despite a consensus on the need for increased investment in the distribution network, actual investment levels have been lower than anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan [47] - The rapid growth of distributed solar power has led to challenges in the capacity of the distribution network, necessitating further enhancements [50]

Group 1 - The core objective of the policy is to promote green electricity direct connection to enhance the local consumption of renewable energy and encourage enterprises to use green energy [1] - The policy allows waste-to-energy companies to supply electricity directly to high-energy-consuming users, creating a "point-to-point" green electricity connection model [1] - The green electricity trading is becoming a crucial breakthrough for the waste-to-energy industry to realize market transformation and gain market recognition for its environmental value [1][2] Group 2 - As of the end of 2023, the installed capacity of waste-to-energy power generation in China reached 25.77 million kilowatts, with an annual electricity generation of approximately 139.4 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - Waste-to-energy facilities can operate continuously and stably for 24 hours, making them ideal for market trading [2] - Successful cases of green electricity direct connection have emerged, such as Shanghai's waste-to-energy plants completing nearly 790 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity trading [2]