Core Points - The US dollar declined on Tuesday, reversing some of the previous day's gains due to inflation data falling below market expectations [1][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with March CPI showing a decrease of 0.1% [3][6] - Despite lower inflation data, tariffs have increased the cost of imported goods, suggesting potential inflation rise in the coming months [1][3] Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index fell by 0.67% to 101.05, reflecting market reactions to the inflation data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments [3][5] - The decline in the dollar index indicates a short-term adjustment in the market's perception of the dollar's strength [5] Currency Movements - The euro appreciated by 0.81% against the dollar, reaching 1.1177, partly due to the dollar's decline and optimistic market sentiment regarding the European economy [4] - The British pound rose by 0.95% to 1.3297, marking the largest single-day increase since April 28, driven by the dollar's retreat and positive outlook on the UK economy [7] Trade Tensions and Economic Outlook - Easing trade tensions have led to reduced recession forecasts among major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays, impacting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][6] - The market now anticipates that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until September, with a projected reduction of at least 25 basis points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, faces a challenging "lose-lose" situation due to the dual mandate of full employment and low inflation being threatened by the Trump administration's tariff policies, leading to a dilemma where any monetary policy action may be deemed "too late" [1][2][3] Group 1: Historical Context and Challenges - Historically, Federal Reserve leaders have been criticized for their indecisiveness in adjusting interest rates, often acting too late in response to economic signals [2] - Examples include Arthur Burns in the 1970s failing to tighten monetary policy during stagflation, Alan Greenspan's delayed response to the internet bubble, and Ben Bernanke's underestimation of the subprime mortgage crisis [2] - Dan North highlights that the Fed tends to wait for overwhelming data before acting, which often results in delayed responses that lead to economic downturns [2][3] Group 2: Current Economic Environment - Powell's current predicament is exacerbated by tariffs that exert downward pressure on economic growth while posing upward risks to inflation, constraining the Fed's policy options [2][3] - Trump has been urging the Fed to lower interest rates, claiming that inflation has been defeated, despite the Fed's decision to maintain rates [4][5] - Recent economic data has not shown significant price increases or a marked slowdown in economic activity, but there are growing concerns among businesses regarding the impact of tariffs [5] Group 3: Labor Market Indicators - The labor market is often the last to signal an impending recession, suggesting that if the Fed relies on labor market performance for policy adjustments, it may act too late [5][6] - Joseph LaVorgna points out that waiting for labor market confirmation could mean the Fed is already behind the curve [6] - Powell's previous reluctance to raise rates in response to rising inflation in 2021 has led to a series of aggressive rate hikes that have yet to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic suggests that it is unwise to adjust monetary policy at this time due to uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's tariffs and other policies, which have led to an economic "stall" [1] Economic Impact - Bostic indicates that the uncertainties have resulted in households and businesses refraining from making significant investments [1] - He emphasizes that the specific economic outcome largely depends on the details of policy implementation, highlighting the current lack of clarity [1] Policy Recommendations - Bostic advises the Federal Reserve to remain cautious and refrain from making bold policy moves until the situation becomes clearer [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic suggests that adjusting policies amid increasing uncertainty is not wise [1] Group 1 - Bostic emphasizes the importance of maintaining a steady approach in the face of economic unpredictability [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by heightened uncertainty, which complicates decision-making for monetary policy [1] - Bostic's comments reflect a cautious stance on potential policy changes, indicating a preference for stability over rapid adjustments [1]

二、现货方面 撰写品种：沪银 撰写时间：2025/05/06 回顾周期：日度 沪银日度报告 一、盘面情况 沪银主力合约今日波动不大，开盘价为 8156 元/千克，最高价是 8280 元/千克，收盘价是 8235 元/千克。 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核、甄别 和判断信息内容，但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性，报告中的信息或 所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报告内容及 最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失承担 任何责任。 今日现货白银价格为 33.058 美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨 0.554 美 元，涨幅 1.70%。 三、宏观分析 美国第一季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值-0.3%，陷入负增长；4 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI48.7，略高于预期但较前值小幅回落，仍处于收缩区间。四 月美国非农就业人数微降至 17.7 万人，好于此前预期，四月美国失业率持 平于 4.2%。关注中美经济数据及关税谈判进展。 四 ...

金丰来认为，尽管市场在短期内可能会出现波动，但从长期来看，投资者应关注防御性板块和避险资产。黄金作为一种避险资产，其价格 在近期创下新高，显示出市场对避险需求的增加。此外，金丰来建议投资者关注那些受贸易政策影响较小的行业，如公用事业和医疗保健 等防御性板块。 金丰来总结认为，当前市场的不确定性主要来源于贸易政策和美联储的政策调整。投资者在当前环境下应保持谨慎，关注市场动态，合理 调整投资组合，以应对可能出现的市场波动。 金丰来认为，贸易政策的不确定性对市场产生了显著影响。特别是关税政策的调整，使得市场参与者对经济增长前景感到担忧。这种不确 定性不仅影响了股票市场，还导致美元汇率波动，投资者纷纷寻求避险资产。例如，近期亚洲股市在美联储主席鲍威尔警告经济增长放缓 和通胀上升风险后出现波动。市场对美国贸易政策的不确定性保持高度关注，这使得投资者在决策时更加谨慎。 金丰来进一步分析，美联储的政策调整也对市场产生了重要影响。鲍威尔表示，美联储将等待更多经济数据来决定是否调整利率。这种谨 慎态度反映了美联储在应对潜在经济疲软和通胀压力之间的平衡难题。市场分析人士认为，美联储目前处于两难境地，因为关税政策可能 导致通胀上升 ...