Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 值得关注的是，近期全球央行购金格局正出现微妙变化。李蓓提到，约两个月前菲律宾央行首次启动售 金操作，但由于其黄金储备规模有限、在全球市场影响力较小，这一动作并未构成关键信号。然而，在 最新一个月，俄罗斯央行的售金行为引发市场高度关注。作为全球黄金储备排名前五的央行，俄罗斯的 黄金储备规模甚至超过中国央行，其售金举动被李蓓解读为黄金市场的重要转向信号。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：常福强 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，半夏投资联合创始人李蓓在会上就黄金市场走势发表重磅观点。她明 确指出，当前国际金价已处于明显高估状态，但强调高估并不意味着价格趋势将立即逆转。 李蓓表示，央行购金行为是影响黄金长期价格的核心变量，这一逻辑在历史中已得到充分验证。回顾 1980年至2000年期间，国际黄金市场曾经历长达20年的实际价格熊市，而这一过程中恰好伴随两轮全球 央行的大规模售金潮。 ...

Group 1 - The current macro environment is unpredictable, resembling a coin toss, with the direction of the dollar dependent on upcoming data from Washington and Nvidia's earnings report acting as a guiding light for risk assets [1][3] - The forex market is in a consolidation phase, awaiting confirmation of policy signals, with the dollar's trading pattern resembling a reasonably priced option [3][5] - Oil prices have stabilized as the Novorossiysk port in Russia resumes operations, leading to a decrease in geopolitical and supply shock premiums, with WTI returning to $59 per barrel [4][5] Group 2 - Gold is experiencing a consolidation phase, hovering below $4,100 per ounce, with structural demand from central bank purchases and deteriorating fiscal conditions in developed markets providing support [5] - The euro is also in a wait-and-see mode, with the EU Commission's autumn forecast unlikely to show significant upward revisions, while the upcoming PMI data could be a turning point for the euro [5][6] - The market is characterized by a lack of clear direction, with key events such as Nvidia's earnings, non-farm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes expected to influence market movements [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of short-term policy impacts and long-term macroeconomic conditions [1] Short-term Policy Impact - The new tax policy aims to direct investment demand towards standardized on-market transactions [1] - The procurement cost for non-investment gold (such as jewelry) has increased by approximately 7%, which may be passed on to consumers [1] - The cost of investment gold bars (purchased through exchange member units) remains largely unchanged, leading to expectations of rising jewelry prices while the impact on investment gold bars is limited [1] Macroeconomic and Policy Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is strengthening the dollar, which suppresses gold prices [1] - Uncertainty from the prolonged U.S. government shutdown is present, although there are still expectations for a Fed rate cut [1] - Short-term pressure is anticipated due to a strong dollar and high interest rates, while medium to long-term support is expected from rate cut expectations and fiscal risks [1] Market Supply and Demand Structure - Central bank gold purchases remain robust, with global central bank gold buying reaching 220 tons by Q3 2025 [1] - There has been a significant increase in gold ETF investment demand in Q3 [1] - Jewelry consumption may be suppressed due to rising prices, providing solid bottom support but limited short-term price-driving momentum [1] Investment Strategies for Gold - The core of the tax policy is to guide investment demand into standardized and regulated on-market channels [1] - It is advisable to prioritize purchasing investment gold bars through member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (such as major banks or reputable gold merchants) to benefit from tax incentives and lower costs [1] - Investors should consider focusing on gold ETFs and accumulation gold products, which offer convenience and liquidity, and are not directly affected by the new tax policy on physical gold, making them good tools to capitalize on long-term gold price appreciation potential [1] Consumer Insights - Jewelry consumers should be aware that gold jewelry prices are likely to remain high due to the new tax policy, with pricing reflecting high craftsmanship fees and brand premiums [1] - Caution is advised to avoid chasing high prices, as gold may experience short-term volatility; a wait-and-see approach is recommended to avoid short-term trading pitfalls [1] - For long-term investors, gradually building positions at the lower end of the price range during fluctuations is suggested [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is expected to outline the Fed's economic outlook and policy framework, which will significantly influence the Fed's future and Powell's political legacy [2][3]. Policy Path Planning - Powell's speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment" indicates a focus on macroeconomic conditions and long-term policy goals, part of a review conducted every five years [3]. - Markets anticipate Powell will lay the groundwork for a potential interest rate cut in September, as he has hinted at significant policy shifts in previous Jackson Hole speeches [4]. - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle suggests Powell may not explicitly signal a September rate cut but will likely indicate support for it, depending on upcoming data [5]. Independence Maintenance - President Trump has consistently criticized Powell and the Fed, pushing for lower interest rates, but the recent attacks have escalated beyond monetary policy [7][8]. - Powell may use this speech to defend the Fed's independence, emphasizing its importance for public benefit [8]. Framework Modification - Powell is expected to discuss modifications to the Fed's policy framework, particularly the potential abandonment of the "average inflation targeting" strategy established before the pandemic [9]. - The previous framework allowed for tolerating inflation above 2% to compensate for periods of low inflation, but recent inflation trends may prompt a return to a more proactive stance [9]. - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist anticipates Powell will highlight changes to the Fed's long-term goals, advocating for a return to a "preemptive" approach to inflation [9]. Market Reactions - Traders are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations for at least two additional 25 basis point cuts by year-end [11]. - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's speech for new clues regarding the rate cut path, which could significantly impact gold prices [12].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, signaling a cautious stance on monetary policy amid signs of economic slowdown [3][4] - The Fed acknowledges a "moderate slowdown" in the U.S. economy expected in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift from previous statements emphasizing "robust growth" [3][4] - Internal divisions within the Fed are emerging, with two voting members expressing support for rate cuts, contrasting with the more cautious outlook of other officials [3][4] Group 2 - The market has partially priced in expectations for rate cuts later this year, with analysts divided on the likelihood of such actions given current inflation pressures and labor market strength [4][5] - The dynamics of market expectations versus the Fed's actual policy decisions may continue to influence gold market sentiment, with potential for further upward momentum if economic data supports a slowdown [5] - Gold is currently at a critical technical level around $3,300 per ounce, with its future direction heavily dependent on Fed policy and market interpretations of interest rate paths [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing narrowed fluctuations, with a decline in bullish buying pressure [1] - Short-term resistance has been encountered, leading to a pullback in prices, raising questions about whether bearish forces can regain strength [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current weakness in gold prices, indicating that the bullish sentiment may struggle to gain momentum unless a specific support level is established [1] - It suggests that market participants are closely monitoring the price movements to identify potential turning points for gold [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of maintaining certain price levels for a stronger bullish outlook in the gold market [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices, indicating that bullish sentiment may struggle to find a turnaround unless certain price levels are maintained [1] - It suggests that a stable price level is crucial for a potential rebound in the gold market [1]

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 948.5 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.29 tons from the previous trading day [5] - On July 17, spot gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a low of $3,309.76 per ounce, the lowest level since July 10, before closing around $3,338.64 per ounce, down $8.68 or 0.26% [5] - The decline in gold ETF holdings is attributed to the drop in gold prices, which were influenced by market reactions to potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership [5][6] Group 2 - Recent news indicated that President Trump might soon dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which initially caused a spike in gold prices due to a drop in the US dollar, but this was quickly denied by Trump, leading to a price retreat [5] - The ongoing tension between Powell and Trump is expected to continue supporting the gold market, as potential candidates for the Fed chair position have expressed concerns about the Fed's credibility [5][6] - Economic data showed that US retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, reversing a two-month decline, indicating that consumer spending remains strong despite the impact of Trump's tariff policies [6] Group 3 - Technically, gold is trading within a range of $3,310 to $3,370, with an upward trend indicated by positive technical indicators [6] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,365 and $3,377, with a potential challenge to the $3,400 mark if these levels are breached [6] - Conversely, short-term support levels are at $3,320 and $3,000, with further declines potentially targeting $3,280 and $3,250, which is near the July low [6]