Group 1 - The current macro environment is unpredictable, resembling a coin toss, with the direction of the dollar dependent on upcoming data from Washington and Nvidia's earnings report acting as a guiding light for risk assets [1][3] - The forex market is in a consolidation phase, awaiting confirmation of policy signals, with the dollar's trading pattern resembling a reasonably priced option [3][5] - Oil prices have stabilized as the Novorossiysk port in Russia resumes operations, leading to a decrease in geopolitical and supply shock premiums, with WTI returning to $59 per barrel [4][5] Group 2 - Gold is experiencing a consolidation phase, hovering below $4,100 per ounce, with structural demand from central bank purchases and deteriorating fiscal conditions in developed markets providing support [5] - The euro is also in a wait-and-see mode, with the EU Commission's autumn forecast unlikely to show significant upward revisions, while the upcoming PMI data could be a turning point for the euro [5][6] - The market is characterized by a lack of clear direction, with key events such as Nvidia's earnings, non-farm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes expected to influence market movements [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of short-term policy impacts and long-term macroeconomic conditions [1] Short-term Policy Impact - The new tax policy aims to direct investment demand towards standardized on-market transactions [1] - The procurement cost for non-investment gold (such as jewelry) has increased by approximately 7%, which may be passed on to consumers [1] - The cost of investment gold bars (purchased through exchange member units) remains largely unchanged, leading to expectations of rising jewelry prices while the impact on investment gold bars is limited [1] Macroeconomic and Policy Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is strengthening the dollar, which suppresses gold prices [1] - Uncertainty from the prolonged U.S. government shutdown is present, although there are still expectations for a Fed rate cut [1] - Short-term pressure is anticipated due to a strong dollar and high interest rates, while medium to long-term support is expected from rate cut expectations and fiscal risks [1] Market Supply and Demand Structure - Central bank gold purchases remain robust, with global central bank gold buying reaching 220 tons by Q3 2025 [1] - There has been a significant increase in gold ETF investment demand in Q3 [1] - Jewelry consumption may be suppressed due to rising prices, providing solid bottom support but limited short-term price-driving momentum [1] Investment Strategies for Gold - The core of the tax policy is to guide investment demand into standardized and regulated on-market channels [1] - It is advisable to prioritize purchasing investment gold bars through member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (such as major banks or reputable gold merchants) to benefit from tax incentives and lower costs [1] - Investors should consider focusing on gold ETFs and accumulation gold products, which offer convenience and liquidity, and are not directly affected by the new tax policy on physical gold, making them good tools to capitalize on long-term gold price appreciation potential [1] Consumer Insights - Jewelry consumers should be aware that gold jewelry prices are likely to remain high due to the new tax policy, with pricing reflecting high craftsmanship fees and brand premiums [1] - Caution is advised to avoid chasing high prices, as gold may experience short-term volatility; a wait-and-see approach is recommended to avoid short-term trading pitfalls [1] - For long-term investors, gradually building positions at the lower end of the price range during fluctuations is suggested [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is expected to outline the Fed's economic outlook and policy framework, which will significantly influence the Fed's future and Powell's political legacy [2][3]. Policy Path Planning - Powell's speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment" indicates a focus on macroeconomic conditions and long-term policy goals, part of a review conducted every five years [3]. - Markets anticipate Powell will lay the groundwork for a potential interest rate cut in September, as he has hinted at significant policy shifts in previous Jackson Hole speeches [4]. - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle suggests Powell may not explicitly signal a September rate cut but will likely indicate support for it, depending on upcoming data [5]. Independence Maintenance - President Trump has consistently criticized Powell and the Fed, pushing for lower interest rates, but the recent attacks have escalated beyond monetary policy [7][8]. - Powell may use this speech to defend the Fed's independence, emphasizing its importance for public benefit [8]. Framework Modification - Powell is expected to discuss modifications to the Fed's policy framework, particularly the potential abandonment of the "average inflation targeting" strategy established before the pandemic [9]. - The previous framework allowed for tolerating inflation above 2% to compensate for periods of low inflation, but recent inflation trends may prompt a return to a more proactive stance [9]. - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist anticipates Powell will highlight changes to the Fed's long-term goals, advocating for a return to a "preemptive" approach to inflation [9]. Market Reactions - Traders are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations for at least two additional 25 basis point cuts by year-end [11]. - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's speech for new clues regarding the rate cut path, which could significantly impact gold prices [12].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, signaling a cautious stance on monetary policy amid signs of economic slowdown [3][4] - The Fed acknowledges a "moderate slowdown" in the U.S. economy expected in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift from previous statements emphasizing "robust growth" [3][4] - Internal divisions within the Fed are emerging, with two voting members expressing support for rate cuts, contrasting with the more cautious outlook of other officials [3][4] Group 2 - The market has partially priced in expectations for rate cuts later this year, with analysts divided on the likelihood of such actions given current inflation pressures and labor market strength [4][5] - The dynamics of market expectations versus the Fed's actual policy decisions may continue to influence gold market sentiment, with potential for further upward momentum if economic data supports a slowdown [5] - Gold is currently at a critical technical level around $3,300 per ounce, with its future direction heavily dependent on Fed policy and market interpretations of interest rate paths [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing narrowed fluctuations, with a decline in bullish buying pressure [1] - Short-term resistance has been encountered, leading to a pullback in prices, raising questions about whether bearish forces can regain strength [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current weakness in gold prices, indicating that the bullish sentiment may struggle to gain momentum unless a specific support level is established [1] - It suggests that market participants are closely monitoring the price movements to identify potential turning points for gold [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of maintaining certain price levels for a stronger bullish outlook in the gold market [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices, indicating that bullish sentiment may struggle to find a turnaround unless certain price levels are maintained [1] - It suggests that a stable price level is crucial for a potential rebound in the gold market [1]

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 948.5 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.29 tons from the previous trading day [5] - On July 17, spot gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a low of $3,309.76 per ounce, the lowest level since July 10, before closing around $3,338.64 per ounce, down $8.68 or 0.26% [5] - The decline in gold ETF holdings is attributed to the drop in gold prices, which were influenced by market reactions to potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership [5][6] Group 2 - Recent news indicated that President Trump might soon dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which initially caused a spike in gold prices due to a drop in the US dollar, but this was quickly denied by Trump, leading to a price retreat [5] - The ongoing tension between Powell and Trump is expected to continue supporting the gold market, as potential candidates for the Fed chair position have expressed concerns about the Fed's credibility [5][6] - Economic data showed that US retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, reversing a two-month decline, indicating that consumer spending remains strong despite the impact of Trump's tariff policies [6] Group 3 - Technically, gold is trading within a range of $3,310 to $3,370, with an upward trend indicated by positive technical indicators [6] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,365 and $3,377, with a potential challenge to the $3,400 mark if these levels are breached [6] - Conversely, short-term support levels are at $3,320 and $3,000, with further declines potentially targeting $3,280 and $3,250, which is near the July low [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses a rapid decline in gold prices after reaching a high, indicating a cautious approach from bullish investors [1] - There is a suggestion for investors to analyze market trends carefully before making decisions regarding gold investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing selling pressure during the Asian trading session, raising questions about the sustainability of short-term rebounds. Attention is drawn to a key resistance level during the European trading session [1] Group 1 - The gold market is facing significant selling pressure, indicating potential volatility in prices [1] - Short-term rebounds in gold prices are uncertain, suggesting a cautious outlook for traders [1] - A critical resistance level is highlighted for monitoring during the European trading session, which could influence market movements [1]