1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel on January 12, 2026 [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 12, 2026, the domestic spot price was 100330, the LME price was 12915, and the ratio was 7.79. The three - month domestic price was 101580, the LME price was 12873, and the ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 7.92, with a loss of 1676.26, and the profit for spot exports was 962.00 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24040, the LME price was 3109, and the ratio was 7.73. The three - month domestic price was 24015, the LME price was 3153, and the ratio was 5.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.35, with a loss of 1902.57 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24030, the LME price was 3136, and the ratio was 7.66. The three - month domestic price was 24385, the LME price was 3128, and the ratio was 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.33, with a loss of 2107.33 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 137250, the LME price was 17279, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.01, with a loss of 640.56 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17200, the LME price was 1996, and the ratio was 8.60. The three - month domestic price was 17395, the LME price was 2040, and the ratio was 11.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.54, with a profit of 132.82 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 12, 2026, the differences between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 440, 610, 670, and 610 respectively, while the theoretical differences were 607, 1112, 1626, and 2139 [3] - **Zinc**: The differences were 40, 85, 120, and 135, and the theoretical differences were 223, 351, 480, and 609 [3] - **Aluminum**: The differences were 545, 600, 635, and 670, and the theoretical differences were 230, 361, 492, and 623 [3] - **Lead**: The differences were 60, 100, 125, and 140, and the theoretical differences were 211, 319, 426, and 534 [3] - **Nickel**: The differences between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 3090, 3220, 3580, and 3900 [3] - **Tin**: The difference between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 90, and the theoretical difference was 7248 [3] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The differences between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 730 and 1170 respectively, while the theoretical differences were 275 and 893 [3] - **Zinc**: The differences were - 110 and - 70, and the theoretical differences were 83 and 223 (or 64 and 285) [3] - **Lead**: The differences were 95 and 155, and the theoretical differences were 109 and 224 [3] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 12, 2026, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.23, 4.17, 5.84, 1.02, 1.40, and 0.72 in Shanghai and 4.12, 4.14, 6.34, 0.99, 1.53, and 0.65 in London [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 9, 2026 [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 9, 2026, the domestic spot price was 101970, the LME spot price was 12837, and the spot ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.93, with a loss of 941.12. The loss for spot export was 1194.91 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24180, the LME spot price was 3126, and the spot ratio was 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1929.08 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24000, the LME spot price was 3064, and the spot ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1591.59 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 146650, the LME spot price was 16961, and the spot ratio was 8.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.02, with a profit of 1776.70 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17350, the LME spot price was 1988, and the spot ratio was 8.70. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.59, with a profit of 228.79 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, the third month, the fourth month, and the fifth month and the spot month were - 1950, - 1920, - 1940, - 2010 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 618, 1134, 1659, 2183 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 340, - 305, - 270, - 250 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 355, 486, 616 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 625, - 585, - 540, - 495 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 233, 367, 500, 634 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 420, - 385, - 350, - 345 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 324, 433, 543 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 10960, - 10810, - 10510, - 10150 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 900, and the theoretical spread was 7176 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract, the next - month contract and the spot were 1145, - 805 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 378, 656 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 135, - 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 69, 209 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 405, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 158, 273 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 9, 2026, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.22, 4.26, 5.83, 0.99, 1.37, 0.72 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 4.06, 4.12, 6.28, 0.99, 1.53, 0.65 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 6, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 100600 domestically and 12934 on LME with a ratio of 7.63; March price is 101470 domestically and 12892 on LME with a ratio of 7.82. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.93 with a profit of - 1538.75 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 23980 domestically and 3136 on LME with a ratio of 7.65; March price is 23865 domestically and 3173 on LME with a ratio of 5.49. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.35 with a profit of - 2191.68 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 23310 domestically and 3033 on LME with a ratio of 7.68; March price is 23700 domestically and 3061 on LME with a ratio of 7.71. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.32 with a profit of - 1940.69 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 136050 domestically and 16668 on LME with a ratio of 8.16. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.02 with a profit of 729.44 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17325 domestically and 1974 on LME with a ratio of 8.72; March price is 17415 domestically and 2020 on LME with a ratio of 11.81. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.59 with a profit of 270.43 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 2550, 2670, 2600, 2650 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 596, 1090, 1593, 2096 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 420, 465, 495, 520 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 220, 346, 472, 598 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 695, 750, 790, 830 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 226, 353, 479, 606 respectively [4] - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 80, 100, 85, 140 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 212, 319, 427, 534 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 3700, 4030, 4330, 4680 respectively [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is 1310 and theoretical spread is 6871 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for 当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 1740 and 810 respectively, and theoretical spreads are - 6 and 921 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for 当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 580 and - 160 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 64 and 304 respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: Spreads for 当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 10 and 70 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 109 and 224 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of 沪（三连） for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 4.25, 4.28, 5.83, 0.99, 1.36, 0.73 respectively. No data for 伦（三连） [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 5, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][2][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report provides the basis data of thermal coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025. During this period, the basis values are - 125.4, - 129.4, - 131.4, - 131.4, and - 123.4 respectively, and the spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It presents the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [9] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [19] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given [18] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [27] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 31, 2025, are presented [30] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [36] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on January 5, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 98790, LME spot is 12526, ratio is 7.86; March price is 98380, LME March is 12496, ratio is 7.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.94 with a profit of - 1808.32, spot export profit is - 455.42 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 23310, LME spot is 3081, ratio is 7.56; March price is 23310, LME March is 3117, ratio is 5.52. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.36 with a profit of - 2455.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 22460, LME spot is 2966, ratio is 7.57; March price is 22950, LME March is 2993, ratio is 7.59. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.33 with a profit of - 2249.88 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 135050, LME spot is 16455, ratio is 8.21. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.03 with a profit of 1259.30 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17150, LME spot is 1971, ratio is 8.69; March price is 17360, LME March is 2015, ratio is 11.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.60 with a profit of 177.81 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 560, - 420, - 420, - 450 respectively, theoretical spreads are 596, 1090, 1593, 2096 [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 125, - 90, - 65, - 20 respectively, theoretical spreads are 220, 346, 472, 598 [4] - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 25, 0, 30, 65 respectively, theoretical spreads are 226, 353, 479, 606 [4] - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 45, 55, 50 respectively, theoretical spreads are 212, 319, 427, 534 [4] - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 2450, 2650, 2930, 3220 respectively [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is - 3570, theoretical spread is 6744 [4] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 15, - 545 respectively, theoretical spreads are 327, 790 [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 90, - 35 respectively, theoretical spreads are 124, 259 [4] - **Zinc (repeated data)**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 90, - 35 respectively, theoretical spreads are 204, 335 [5] - **Lead**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 165, 205 respectively, theoretical spreads are 150, 264 [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 4.22, 4.29, 5.67, 0.98, 1.32, 0.74 in Shanghai and 3.98, 4.15, 6.18, 0.96, 1.49, 0.65 in London [5]

品 研 2026年1月5日 能化套利范式总结7 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 1) 终点支持:即顺着终点方向做优化,而非逆着终点方向做路径; 2) 路径大幅偏离下:若发生路径大幅偏离,对冲策略本身逐步转变成单品种矛盾,此时另一腿换成 其自身产业链品种会相对合理且安全; 3) 路径演绎上:波动率上仍然关注气体>液体>固体（即波动率大的品种往往会抢跑） 因而在 "做矮子里面拔将军"这件事情的时候要额外关注波动率带来的短期影响; 无论是跨期套利还是对冲套利形式,底层逻辑仍然有效,但由于资金来源多样化以及交易路径变化, 底层逻辑展现形式开始分化,跨期套利上,市场交易预期行情带来月间结构畸形以及熊市正套等进感维行 情，而跨品种对冲套利上由于能化商品逻辑趋于一致,不以终点为锚的路径交易反而事倍功半,而顺着终 点的路径优化策略仍然是当下最优解。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 chenxinchao@gtht.com 所有商品板块中,能源化工作为以对冲为主要策略载体的板块一直以来是对冲策略的高地。由于成本 端犹动以及网状供需结构,能化板块套利逻辑的开发及总结已经成为市场参与该板块的主要形式。能化板 块 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sentiment boost drives the polyolefin market to stop falling and rebound, but the change in the supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. - For PE, the supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited new planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand remains weak, and there is still pressure on price and inventory removal. - For PP, although there is an expectation of supply reduction and cost support, the short - term rebound depends on whether the scale of device maintenance can increase, and the price increase space is limited due to insufficient demand improvement. - Suggested strategies include short - term cautious short - selling hedging for LLDPE, waiting and seeing for PP, and specific operations for cross - period and cross - variety spread trading [3][5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价6472元/吨（+11）, PP主力合约收盘价6348元/吨（+27）. LL华北现货6300元/吨（+0）, LL华东现货6450元/吨（+50）, PP华东现货6160元/吨（+0）. LL华北基差 - 172元/吨（+9）, LL华东基差 - 72元/吨（ - 11）, PP华东基差 - 188元/吨（ - 17） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE上月产量301万吨（+12）, LLDPE产量143万吨（+9）, PE开工率84%（+0%）; PP上月产量356万吨（+9）, PP开工率77%（ - 3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润64.5元/吨（+78.3）, PP油制生产利润 - 415.5元/吨（+78.3）, PDH制PP生产利润 - 828.8元/吨（ - 35.7） [1]. - **Import and Export**: PE11月进口量106万吨（+5）, 11月出口量9万吨（+0）; PP11月进口量30万吨（+3）, 11月出口量26万吨（+2）. LL进口利润99.3元/吨（ - 2.5）, PP进口利润 - 351.2元/吨（+7.4）, PP出口利润 - 22.4美元/吨（ - 0.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率45%（ - 5%）, PE下游包装膜开工率49%（ - 2%）, PP下游塑编开工率44%（+0%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率63%（+0%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply and demand issues. In late December, it rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and the short - term rebound drive is limited [3]. - **Supply**: Only a new 50 - million - ton/year FDPE device of Zhanjiang BASF was put into production in December. In 2026, the new production slows down, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%. There is a new production vacuum period in Q1. The planned maintenance in January is limited, and the import window is open again, increasing supply pressure. Some devices may switch production [3]. - **Import and Export**: In November, the import volume was 106.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04%. The import window reopened in December, and the expected increase in low - cost imported goods may impact domestic supply [4]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall downstream PE开工 continues to decline. The demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak, and the demand support remains weak [4]. - **Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory accumulates. The inventory removal of each link in the industrial chain may slow down, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure around the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2.2 Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply - demand imbalance. Near the end of the month, it rebounded, but the rebound height depends on whether the device maintenance can be realized [6]. - **Supply**: No new device was put into production in December. Only a 15 - million - ton external - propylene - purchasing PP device of Huizhou Lituo is expected to be put into production in Q1 2026, but there is uncertainty. The profit pressure may lead to more device maintenance [6]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import volume was 30.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.64%, and the export volume was 25.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.49%. The import window is not open, and the export may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工 is weak, except for BOPP. The policy in 2026 is beneficial to demand, but the overall support is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The upstream inventory pressure exists, and the inventory removal of each link is not smooth. There is still inventory removal pressure due to limited demand [7]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell and hedge for LLDPE at high prices; wait and see for PP, and pay attention to device maintenance and cost disturbances [8]. - **Cross - period**: Do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 contract spreads at high prices [8]. - **Cross - variety**: Do short - selling operations for the long - term L - PP spread at high prices [8]. 3.4 Polyolefin Basis Strategy - **PE Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of LLDPE continues to weaken. In January, the basis may fluctuate weakly in the range of - 100 to - 200. It is recommended to do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 spreads at high prices [13]. - **PP Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of PP fluctuates weakly in the range of - 130 to - 210. The basis may continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the realization of device maintenance, and the month - spread fluctuates within a range [13].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 31 日 铂：节前宽幅震荡 钯： 情绪偏弱 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 589. 85 | | -7.02% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 565. 12 | | -11. 31% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2220.00 | | 3. 79% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2178. 00 | | 3.59% | | | | 包金期货2606 | 447. 45 | | -9.44% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货纪金 | 406. 00 | | -16. 97% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.685.50 | | -0. 59% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 1.601.00 | | -1.23% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on December 31, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, profits, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 31, 2025, the domestic spot price was 97,700, LME price was 12,516, and the ratio was 7.86; the three - month domestic price was 98,240, LME price was 12,477, and the ratio was 7.84. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.95 with a profit of - 1,171.20 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 23,290, LME price was 3,091, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 23,420, LME price was 3,123, and the ratio was 5.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37 with a profit of - 2,576.06 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 22,180, LME price was 2,941, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 22,620, LME price was 2,974, and the ratio was 7.54. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33 with a profit of - 2,321.75 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 131,750, LME price was 16,358, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.04 with a profit of 1,259.30 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,400, LME price was 1,979, and the ratio was 8.74; the three - month domestic price was 17,510, LME price was 2,021, and the ratio was 11.48. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.60 with a profit of 273.72 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were - 630, - 480, - 420, and - 460 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 596, 1089, 1592, and 2094 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 180, 220, 265, and 295, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 344, 469, and 594 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 50, 105, 145, and 180, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 348, 473, and 597 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 65, 70, 70, and 110, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 429, and 537 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads for 次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were 7,080, 7,360, 7,630, and 7,870 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1,410, and the theoretical spread was 6,712 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 1,150 and 520 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 489 and 936 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 90 and 90, and the theoretical spreads were 146 and 282 (also mentioned 185 and 325) respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40 and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 136 and 252 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 31, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.19, 4.34, 5.61, 0.97, 1.29, 0.75 in Shanghai (three - consecutive) and 4.02, 4.21, 6.25, 0.95, 1.48, 0.64 in London (three - consecutive) [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 30, 2025, offering insights for potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 100950 domestically and 12584 on LME with a ratio of 7.80; March price is 98940 domestically and 12553 on LME with a ratio of 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.96 with a loss of 1855.70 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 23380 domestically and 3086 on LME with a ratio of 7.58; March price is 23285 domestically and 3116 on LME with a ratio of 5.65. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.38 with a loss of 2484.97 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 22490 domestically and 2934 on LME with a ratio of 7.66; March price is 22625 domestically and 2972 on LME with a ratio of 7.66. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.34 with a loss of 1994.64 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 130850 domestically and 15520 on LME with a ratio of 8.43. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.05 with a profit of 1196.97 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17475 domestically and 1967 on LME with a ratio of 8.83; March price is 17465 domestically and 2011 on LME with a ratio of 11.63. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.62 with a profit of 421.73 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 260, 340, 400, 390; theoretical differences are 595, 1088, 1590, 2092 [4] - **Zinc**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 55, 85, 130, 130; theoretical differences are 219, 344, 469, 594 [4] - **Aluminum**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are 235, 290, 325, 340; theoretical differences are 223, 346, 470, 594 [4] - **Lead**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are - 50, - 75, - 95, - 125; theoretical differences are 213, 321, 430, 539 [4] - **Nickel**: Differences between subsequent months and spot month are - 730, - 410, - 140, 200 [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 difference is 1320 with a theoretical difference of 6865 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are - 2120 and - 1860; theoretical differences are 26 and 620 [4] - **Zinc**: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are - 180 and - 125; theoretical differences are 119 and 288 [5] - **Lead**: Differences between current - month and subsequent - month contracts and spot are 65 and 15; theoretical differences are 144 and 260 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 4.25, 4.37, 5.67, 0.97, 1.30, 0.75 in Shanghai and 3.96, 4.14, 6.09, 0.96, 1.47, 0.65 in London [8]