Core Insights - International spot gold prices have recently surged, breaking historical records, primarily driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing US-China trade tensions, and political uncertainties prompting safe-haven buying [1][2] - Silver and other precious metals have also experienced significant price fluctuations amid these market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices have reached approximately $2,180 per ounce, with an intraday high of $2,185, marking a historical peak [1] - The recent decline in US Treasury yields has reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on economic assessments being impacted by government shutdowns and slowing job market growth have been interpreted as signals for potential monetary policy easing [2] Group 2: Trade Relations and Political Factors - Ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations continue to affect market sentiment, reinforcing gold's role as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - The US government's "Section 232" investigation into critical minerals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, has entered its final stages, raising concerns about potential changes in trade policy [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Year-to-date, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have all recorded substantial gains, driven by central bank purchases, increased ETF holdings, and expectations of rate cuts from major central banks [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering terminating some trade relations with China, including those related to edible oils, as stated by President Trump [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown affecting the Fed's economic assessment [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.029%, while the real yield dropped nearly 3.5 basis points to 1.728%, which is favorable for gold prices [2] Group 2 - FPG analyst Felix believes that gold prices are likely to rise above the $4100 per ounce mark, driven by dovish comments from Powell and increased safe-haven buying due to U.S.-China trade tensions [3] - Technical indicators show that gold remains in a strong upward trend, with the 20-day simple moving average currently at $3863.90 per ounce [3] - Analyst Chad indicates that gold has room for further increases, with support levels at $4123.20, $4090.00, and $4078.10 per ounce, and resistance at $4200.00 per ounce [4] Group 3 - Current market indicators for gold show a bearish daily direction, with resistance levels at 4186, 4200, and 4210, and support levels at 4170, 4161, and 4149 [5] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% [5] - The euro to dollar exchange rate shows a bearish daily direction, with resistance at 1.1628, 1.1657, and 1.1714, and support at 1.1603, 1.1577, and 1.1554 [6]

日线图上，黄金本周连续三个交易日，刷新历史新高，短期表现十分强势。黄金下方支撑，可以关注亚盘金价冲高遇阻后的回落低点附近4020美 元，其次关注亚盘金价突破整数位置4000美元；黄金上方压力，关注日内高点，也是目前历史高点附近4050美元的突破情况，进一步上涨则顺势上 看，上不猜顶，上方空间可以暂时关注4100美元整数关口。5日均线与MACD指标金叉向上，RSI指标超买区金叉向上，KDJ指标超买区金叉轻微下 拐，短期技术面显示多方保持优势，黄金连续冲高处于超买状态，市场看涨情绪强烈。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，本周黄金继续大涨，连续突破3900美元和4000美元整数关口，继续保持上升趋势，降息预期与避险买盘，是支 撑金价冲高的重要因素。具体来看，市场对美联储进一步降息的预期持续升温，是支撑黄金价格上涨的核心动力，为金价提供了重要的底部支撑， 美联储在9月已经降息25个基点，截止10月8日，市场预期10月降息25个基点的概率是94%，12月累计降息50个基点的概率是81%；地缘政治风险， 是近期推动黄金加速大涨的新动力来源，主要事件是美国政府停摆进入第二周，市场对政府长期关门的担忧加剧，恐慌情绪 ...

来源：黄力晨 昨日周一我们认为，市场对美联储进一步降息的预期升温，对美国政府长期停摆的担忧加剧，在降息预期与避险买盘的支撑下， 黄金价格再创历史新高，走势继续保持上升趋势，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑可以关注3920和3900美元，上方压力关注3950 美元附近的突破情况，若金价进一步上涨，继续刷新历史新高，则顺势上看，上不猜顶。从之后的走势看，昨日周一欧盘盘中， 黄金在刷新历史高点3949美元后，走势震荡回落，美盘开盘后跌至3926美元企稳，在第二次回落试探3926美元支撑后，黄金震荡 上涨，继续刷新历史新高至3970美元；周二开盘，黄金继续冲高，刷新历史新高至3977美元，亚盘盘中金价三次试探这里遇阻回 落，欧盘跌至3940美元企稳，目前暂时交投于3960美元附近。总体来看，黄金回落接近我们给出的3920美元支撑企稳上涨，继续 刷新历史新高，走势维持上升趋势。Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，本周黄金再创历史新高，除了市场对美联储进一步降息的 预期升温，为黄金提供重要的底部支撑外，美国政府停摆危机与法国政治危机，加强黄金避险买盘，也为金价的上涨提供了助 力。具体来看，美联储9月降息25个基点，市场 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks, leading to a strong upward trend in gold prices [1][2][4] - Gold has experienced its eighth consecutive week of gains and has set new historical highs for six consecutive weeks, indicating a robust market performance [2] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, market expectations for two additional rate cuts this year have intensified, providing a solid support base for gold prices [2] Group 2 - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, have heightened risk aversion, further bolstering demand for gold [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold has broken through key resistance levels, with support levels identified at $3920 and $3900, while the upper resistance is at $3950 [4] - Indicators such as the 5-day moving average and MACD suggest that bullish sentiment remains strong, although gold is currently in an overbought state [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices due to increased safe-haven buying amid the U.S. government shutdown, with gold reaching a historical high of $3892.60 per ounce and silver hitting a 14-year high [1][3] - The U.S. government shutdown, the first in nearly seven years, is expected to disrupt the jobs of hundreds of thousands of Americans and interrupt many public services, potentially leading to economic impacts such as a spike in unemployment rates [1] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector for September, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 52,000 jobs, further supporting the bullish sentiment in the gold and silver markets [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis for December gold futures shows that bulls have a strong overall recent technical advantage, with the next upward target being to break the solid resistance level of $4000 [2] - The silver futures for December delivery also saw an increase, closing at $47.41 per ounce, reflecting a rise of 1.24% [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will further increase by 6% to reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong structural demand from central banks and the Federal Reserve's accommodative policies [1]

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs due to increased market risk aversion, driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown [1] - The political landscape is tense as bipartisan negotiations are ongoing to avoid a government shutdown, with differing priorities between Democrats and Republicans [1] - The weakening U.S. dollar and falling oil prices have provided additional upward momentum for gold and silver [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 30, December gold futures rose by $47.00 to $3,855.80, while December silver futures increased by $0.434 to $47.09 [1] - The market sentiment is bullish for both gold and silver, with gold's next target being $4,000 and silver aiming for $50.00 [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - December gold futures show strong bullish momentum, with resistance levels at $3,875 and $3,900, and support levels at $3,800 and $3,785.50 [2] - December silver futures also exhibit a strong bullish trend, with key support at $44.00 [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The current bull market for gold and silver is maturing, indicating potential for a price correction in the short term, but still possessing upward potential [2] - Investors are advised to balance short-term risk aversion with long-term value allocation, while being mindful of possible high-level fluctuations and corrections [2]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on September 22, with the main silver contract rising over 3% and gold contracts increasing by more than 2% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1459.65 points, up 7.48 points or 0.52% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals remain the market's highlight, with silver prices continuing to rise and spot gold prices surpassing $3700 per ounce, reaching new highs [2] - The market sentiment for gold and silver is overwhelmingly bullish due to ongoing positive factors and increased safe-haven buying amid rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown [2] Group 3: Shipping and Transportation - The shipping index (European line) experienced a rebound, attributed to emotional recovery after a significant drop last week due to airline pricing adjustments during the off-season [2] - The market sentiment for shipping is stabilizing as the main contract transitions to a relatively busier season, with cautious expectations for further price declines [2] Group 4: Other Commodities - Oilseeds and oils showed an overall rebound, with prices for various soybean and oil products rising approximately 1% [3] - The main contract for polysilicon saw a significant decline of 3.63%, driven by a lack of new stimulus from policies and a still loose supply-demand balance [4] Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector - The SC crude oil main contract fell by 1.67%, with a general downturn in the oil and gas sector as demand weakens with the arrival of the off-season [4] - Despite geopolitical tensions potentially affecting oil supply, the overall market is expected to face a widening supply-demand surplus, leading to a bearish outlook for crude oil prices [4]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced profit-taking, dropping below $3,680 after reaching a record high of $3,703 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is considering imposing tariffs on more imported auto parts based on national security reasons, which could benefit gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Gold prices have risen over 40% this year due to geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the global economy [2] Group 2 - Investors and analysts widely expect gold prices to continue rising, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach around $5,000 per ounce [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may continue to rise, with a cautious approach recommended for high positions, as a correction may occur if prices do not break above $3,705 [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 782.72 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.16% [1] - The London gold and silver prices rose by 0.1% and 0.11% respectively, closing at 3396.495 USD per ounce and 38.56 USD per ounce [1] - The Shanghai silver futures contract increased by 0.02%, closing at 9327 CNY per kilogram [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 11.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 88.7% [2] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 5.5%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability at 49% and a 50 basis point cut at 45.5% [2] Group 3 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was generally dovish, leading to a temporary increase in market bets for a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - The ongoing crisis regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to higher overall inflation in the U.S. in the long term [3] - The political turmoil in France has renewed safe-haven buying for gold, suggesting that precious metals may continue to experience strong fluctuations at high levels [3]