展情况。 泉青城山生产基地。 省人大常委会组成人员参观的农夫山 现场教学环节，走进产业园了解区域产业发 □四川日报全媒体记者 刘佳 文/图7月23日—25日，2025年省人大常委会组成人员学习会在成都举 行，这是四川省人大常委会已坚持30年的一项重要制度性安排。开班动员会上，省委书记、省人 大常委会主任王晓晖要求，要在理论学习和参观考察中结合人大职能职责认真研究思考，不断提 高运用理论认识问题、分析问题、解决问题的能力。重点是要深入思考"十五五"人大工作怎么 干、人大如何在发展全过程人民民主中发挥职能作用、如何更好以科技赋能人大工作、人大如何 更好助力我省对外开放合作等一系列重大问题，从而更加自觉把自身工作摆到全省中心大局中来 谋划，确保全省人大工作顺应时代要求、适应四川发展需要、更加富有成效。带着问题去学习， 大家收获了什么？又有什么新的思考和打算？深学细悟筑牢履职尽责的思想根基"学习会犹如一 场'及时雨'，既为我们盘点过往、校准方向提供了思想坐标，也为锚定新目标、开启新征程注入 了强劲动能。"眉山市人大常委会主任刘先伟说，"王晓晖书记在开班式上发出的'四问'，帮助我 们进一步深化了对人大工作更好服务中心大 ...

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain strategic determination and focus on domestic issues amidst increasing international uncertainties[13] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a resilient economic performance despite structural challenges[15] - The overall goal for the next five years is to achieve qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, promoting comprehensive development and common prosperity[14] Policy Implementation - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on "four stabilizations": stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[17] - Policies will prioritize the effective implementation of existing measures rather than introducing new incremental policies[17] - Emphasis on enhancing the flexibility and predictability of macroeconomic policies while maintaining continuity and stability[18] Consumer and Investment Strategies - The government plans to boost consumer demand through direct subsidies and expanding basic public services, particularly in education and childcare[20] - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow at a cumulative year-on-year rate of 2.8% in Q2 2025, reflecting ongoing investment challenges[19] Capital Market Focus - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery[25] - The capital market has shown resilience, rebounding since September 2024, and is expected to continue improving with supportive policies[26]

Core Insights - The market experienced its smoothest main upward phase since the beginning of the year in July, with a 3.74% increase and a maximum drawdown of 1.18% [3][6] - The "anti-involution" policies and the emphasis on stabilizing growth in key industries contributed to market acceleration and improved profit-making effects [3][6] - Small-cap, growth, and loss-making stocks outperformed in July, with sectors like steel, pharmaceuticals, building materials, and communications leading the gains [3][10] Market Performance Summary - In July, the market saw a significant increase, with the main index rising 3.74% and achieving the highest monthly Sharpe and Calmar ratios of the year [6][8] - The average number of stocks hitting the daily limit dropped from over 70 to around 50 by the end of July, indicating a slight easing in profit-making effects [3][43] - The small-cap index outperformed the large-cap index, with small-cap stocks rising 5.54% compared to 3.48% for large-cap stocks [10] Industry Analysis - The report highlights the importance of identifying companies that only incur losses in profits but maintain positive cash flow, particularly in the cement and chemical sectors [3][98] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive excess returns, with a projected initial pulse of around 20 percentage points, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks [3][91] - Industries experiencing supply contraction and rising demand include upstream coking coal, midstream engineering machinery, and downstream white goods and pharmaceuticals [3][115] Thematic Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the significance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the industries benefiting from childbirth subsidies, including maternal and infant products, children's healthcare, and early education services [3][118] - Key areas of focus include digital transformation in industries and consumption services, particularly in regions like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the Yangtze River Delta [3][120]

【导读】六位券商、公募"首席"解读中央政治局会议精神：释放多重积极信号，政策"组合 拳"巩固市场向好势头 中国基金报记者 李树超 方丽 曹雯璟 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 此次中央政治局会议释放出哪些积极信号？下半年宏观政策如何调整？资本市场哪些机会值 得关注？为此，中国基金报专访了六位来自券商、公募的 "首席"，他们是 中信证券首席经济 学家明明、华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘、招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛、创金合信 基金首席经济学家魏凤春、中航基金副总经理兼首席投资官邓海清和博时基金首席权益策略 分析师陈显顺 。 会议释放多重积极信号 中国基金报：此次中央政治局会议释放出哪些积极信号？哪些内容是你比较关注的？ 明明： 一是我国经济运行稳中有进，主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力加快形成，高质量 发展取得新成效。二是会议强调 "持续发力、适时加力"，明确后续若遇外部冲击或下行压 力，将有能力及时加大财政政策和货币政策支持。此次会议有关"十五五"计划的定调、地产 方面的城市更新工作、扩内需政策、稳外贸工作以及地方化债工作等都非常值得关注。 易峘： 此次会议延续 ...

Market Outlook - The market is expected to show a fluctuating pattern in early August, returning to an upward trend in late August, potentially reaching new highs [1][2] - The overall demand is recovering, with government spending and exports performing well, while real estate and investment face pressure [2][5] Earnings Reports - The earnings season is anticipated to reveal mixed results, with some stocks facing adjustment pressure before disclosures [1][2] - The second quarter earnings reports are expected to confirm improvements in operating cash flow for leading companies [2][5] Investment Strategy - A "dumbbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high ROE and free cash flow companies on one side, and sectors like AI on the other [3][4] - Key sectors to watch include military trade, semiconductor autonomy, and new consumption [3] Style and Sector Allocation - In August, the market is expected to experience increased volatility, favoring mainstream styles [4] - Recommended indices include Sci-Tech 50, CSI 1000, and Hang Seng Technology [4] Industry Focus - Attention should be given to sectors with expected earnings recovery, including non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, machinery, defense, and computing [5][7] - Key investment themes include AI applications, AI hardware, non-bank finance, defense, and innovative drugs [5][6] Liquidity and Fund Supply - There is an expectation of continued net inflow of incremental funds, with active participation from financing, private equity, and industry ETFs [5][6] - The macro liquidity remains loose, but potential tightening may occur due to increased government bond supply [5][6] Economic Indicators - High-performing sectors in July included resources, midstream manufacturing, and information technology, with price increases noted in steel and coal [7] - The overall A-share earnings report is expected to face pressure, but certain sectors may still show robust growth [6][7]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a volatile pattern in early August, followed by a return to an upward trend in late August, potentially reaching new highs[2] - Concerns regarding the US-China tariff conflict may persist until around August 12, after which risk appetite is likely to recover[3] - The overall free cash flow of listed companies is anticipated to improve, reinforcing the logic for re-evaluating A-shares[3] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, indicating a stable economic environment[17] - The second quarter earnings growth for listed companies is expected to remain between 0% and 5%[16] - The market has successfully surpassed key resistance levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3450 and the WIND All A Index above 5400 points[18] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high ROE and free cash flow companies on one side, and sectors like AI and defense on the other[19] - Key sectors to watch include non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, electric power equipment, and machinery[21] Fund Flows - Incremental capital is expected to continue flowing into the market, driven by financing, private equity, and industry ETFs[7] - The net inflow of funds is likely to persist, supported by the positive feedback loop from the market's performance[25] Industry Focus - Attention should be given to sectors with high earnings growth or marginal improvement, particularly in TMT, manufacturing, and essential consumer goods[8] - The focus on "de-involution" competition is expected to drive capacity clearing in various industries, enhancing profitability[21]

Group 1: Planning and Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and will focus on enhancing core competitiveness and functionality of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has been successfully implemented, with major indicators such as economic growth and R&D expenditure meeting expectations, and 8 indicators exceeding expectations [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize the development of new productive forces and the optimization of strategic emerging industries [2] Group 2: Key Industries and Focus Areas - The focus will be on strategic emerging industries, including marine economy, artificial intelligence, new energy and green environmental protection, next-generation information communication, and biomedicine [34] - The marine economy is highlighted as a significant development direction, with policies aimed at enhancing marine technology and optimizing marine economic layout [35] - Artificial intelligence is recognized as a new economic growth engine, with ongoing support for its integration into various sectors [38] Group 3: Implementation and Risks - SOEs are encouraged to enhance five values: value addition, functional value, economic value added, revenue from strategic emerging industries, and brand value [30] - The plan includes a focus on three concentrations of state capital: critical industries related to national security, public services, and strategic emerging industries [30] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and changes in the macroeconomic environment [2]

Domestic Economic Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to actively prepare for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and to complete the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.1% [12][14] - Industrial profits in June showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of -4.3%, compared to -9.1% previously, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [19][21] - High-frequency indicators in transportation, such as subway passenger volume, showed a rebound, indicating some recovery in activity [26] International Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July were below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly lower than the anticipated 110,000 [33] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.2%, reflecting a cooling labor market [33][34] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not lower interest rates in July, with future decisions dependent on economic data [33] Industry Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, which is showing signs of overheating [3] - Emphasis is placed on the need for structural monetary policy tools to support economic recovery and innovation in key industries [10][11]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic development amidst external uncertainties, suggesting that the core idea of "concentrating efforts on one's own affairs" will continue to be reflected in the 15th Five-Year Plan [2] - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to include significant themes such as the construction of a national unified market, technological innovation leading to new productive forces, digital economy and artificial intelligence, and high-quality urban development [4][5] - The report predicts that the focus on "anti-involution" in market competition will be a key aspect of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with an emphasis on optimizing market competition order and regulating local investment attraction [5] Group 2 - The urbanization strategy is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, with a focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in existing urban areas, as indicated by recent central government meetings [6] - Technological innovation is expected to lead the development of new productive forces, moving away from traditional industries and focusing on advanced production factors [7] - The integration of artificial intelligence with the digital economy is anticipated to be a major theme in the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the role of AI in driving high-quality economic development [10] Group 3 - The report highlights the need for enhancing domestic demand, particularly in the context of improving income distribution and social security systems, which are expected to release significant consumption potential [11] - Large-scale infrastructure projects are likely to be prioritized in the 15th Five-Year Plan, with specific mentions of major water conservancy, transportation, and energy projects [12][30] - The necessity of ensuring supply chain security and addressing technological bottlenecks in key areas such as semiconductor manufacturing is emphasized, with expectations for continued support in these sectors in the upcoming plan [13] Group 4 - The report suggests that the 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on the development of future industries, including advanced manufacturing, new materials, and future energy technologies [25][27] - Cultural development and enhancing national cultural soft power are expected to be significant components of the 15th Five-Year Plan, aligning with the goal of building a "cultural power" by 2035 [19] - The construction of a community with a shared future for mankind and strengthening multilateral diplomatic relations are anticipated to be included in the 15th Five-Year Plan, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [20]

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic development amidst external uncertainties, suggesting that the core idea of "concentrating efforts to do our own things well" will continue to be reflected in the 15th Five-Year Plan [2] - The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to include around 20 chapters, with potential standalone themes such as "National Unified Market Construction," "Technological Innovation Leading New Quality Productivity Development," "Digital Economy and Artificial Intelligence," and "High-Quality Urban Development" [3] - The report anticipates a shift in urban development focus from rapid growth to quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, indicating that the 15th Five-Year Plan will likely continue this trend [4] National Unified Market Construction - The concept of "anti-involution" in supply-side policies is expected to be further developed in the 15th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on optimizing market competition order and regulating local investment attraction [3] Technological Innovation - The report highlights the significance of "new quality productivity," which aims to break away from traditional economic growth models and focus on high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-quality development [5] Digital Economy and AI - The integration of artificial intelligence with the digital economy is anticipated to be a key theme in the 15th Five-Year Plan, with AI serving as a core engine for driving high-quality economic development [7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The report notes that domestic demand is becoming increasingly important, with significant potential for consumer spending to be released, particularly in the service sector [8] Investment in Infrastructure - The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to outline significant investments in large-scale infrastructure projects, including major water conservancy, transportation, and energy projects [9][19] Supply Chain Security - The necessity for enhancing supply chain security and addressing technological bottlenecks in critical areas such as semiconductor manufacturing is highlighted as a priority in the upcoming plan [10] Industrial Upgrading and Future Industries - The report suggests that the 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging industries, with an emphasis on high-end, green, and intelligent development [11][12] Modern Infrastructure Development - The report anticipates that the 15th Five-Year Plan will continue to prioritize modern infrastructure development, particularly in new infrastructure and transportation sectors [13] Cultural Development - The promotion of cultural confidence and the enhancement of national cultural soft power are expected to be included in the 15th Five-Year Plan, aligning with the goal of building a "cultural strong nation" [14] International Relations - The report indicates that the 15th Five-Year Plan will likely address the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind, emphasizing the importance of multilateral diplomatic relations [15]