法人先前推估，台积电12月营收约在2925亿元新台币至3109亿元新台币间，实际表现优于预期，包括汇 率有利因素，预估第4季美元财测已超标，也优于预期。实际美元营收数据预计在15日的法说会公布。 台积电预计1月15日召开法人说明会，此次线下与线上同步举行。外界认为，台积电释出的2026年景气 展望与资本支出规划等将成为科技产业重要风向标。 台积电预定1月15日召开线下法说会，外界关注2026年首季展望以及涨价议题。法人预期，台积电今年 首季可望淡季不淡，甚至受惠于先进制程涨价生效，美元营收可能较去年第四季度季增或至少持平，有 机会再创单季历史新高。 法人分析，台积电受惠于英伟达与AMD等新平台陆续推出，加上博通等非苹客户积极扩大AI应用领 域，3nm以下先进制程持续供不应求，大客户群抢先预订产能，台积电先进制程持续拥有领先者红利。 台积电日前已公布2025年12月合并营收3350亿元新台币，月减2.5%，年增20.4%，创历年同期新高，带 动去年第四季度新台币营收首度突破1万亿元新台币关卡，达到10460.8亿元新台币，季增5.7%，年增 20.5%，创单季新高。 台积电去年12月营收优于预期，挹注2025年 ...

Yardeni认为我们正处于"咆哮的2020年代"。基于每股收益（EPS）预计在2027年达到350美元， 标 普500指数有望在2026年底冲向7700点，并最终在本十年末挑战10000点大关。 与此同时， 黄金长 期目标同样看至10000美元 ，而白银等贵金属受工业需求驱动也将同步走强。 Ed Yardeni表示，当下正处于"咆哮的2020年代，经济韧性与AI生产力跃迁有望驱动标普500于2026 年看齐7700点，本十年末挑战万点。投资主线将由AI生产者转向受益于降本增效的"493家"使用者。 美债收益率稳于4%以上，而金价长期有望同步看齐万美金。 近日，Ed Yardeni分享了他对2026年股票、债券和黄金市场的展望，并剖析了未来一年可能影响这些 资产类别的关键驱动因素。 Yardeni表示，AI领域已从垄断走向"军备竞赛"，竞争加剧正收窄科技巨头的护城河。市场逻辑正在发 生深刻转变：投资重点将从AI技术的生产者（七巨头）扩散至AI技术的使用者，后者通过AI提升利润 率的潜力巨大。 以下为要点总结： 我们仍然认为，在 2026 年，市场涨幅将从"七巨头"扩散到那令人印象深刻的"493 家公司"。 现 ...

Core Insights - OpenAI officially released the GPT-5.2 series model on December 11, showcasing significant advancements in reasoning, professional knowledge work, financial modeling, and productivity tools like PPT/Excel, surpassing previous generations and leading in multiple reasoning benchmark tests against Google's Gemini 3 [1] - The global AI arms race is intensifying, with OpenAI being pressured by competitors like Google and Anthropic, prompting accelerated development of large models [1] - The recent approval of NVIDIA's H200 chip for export to China, which has nearly six times the performance of the previous H20 chip, is expected to alleviate the domestic high-end computing power shortage and accelerate AI computing infrastructure development in China [1] Industry Implications - The breakthroughs in large model speed and stability will drive increased demand for AI training and inference computing power, impacting the global supply chain for core hardware components such as servers, specialized chips, optical modules, advanced packaging, high-speed interconnects, high-bandwidth storage, liquid cooling, and copper cables [1] - Despite the easing of restrictions on the H200 chip, the U.S. strategy to maintain long-term control over core computing power in China remains unchanged, emphasizing the urgency for domestic self-sufficiency in computing power [2] - The acceleration of AI computing infrastructure in China is expected to benefit various segments related to computing power, including server manufacturing, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), optical modules, PCBs, copper cables, and liquid cooling, highlighting potential investment opportunities in leading companies within these sectors [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main reason for the recent weakness in the bond market is that the central bank's open - market operations and external expectation management since November have been overall prudent and did not match the market's high expectations. The concerns about policy tone adjustment and “short - term tightening and long - term easing” are more of an emotional interpretation. [1][3] - The bond market is currently facing potential pressures from inflation improvement and the mismatch between supply and demand of ultra - long - term bonds. [8] - Suggestions for responding to the market situation include staying on the sidelines in the near term and paying attention to short - term opportunities and long - term opportunities to steepen the yield curve. [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Reasons for the Decline - **Monetary Policy Factor**: The market's expectations for monetary policy were not met. After the central bank restarted treasury bond trading in late October, the follow - up policy guidance and actual open - market operations were restrained. The third - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - November did not echo the over - heated policy expectations. Near the end of the year, discussions about policy setting and the description of “short - term tightening and long - term easing” in the media also affected the bond market. [1][2][3] - **Institutional Behavior Factor**: Concerns about public fund redemption rules and banks selling old bonds are institutional behavior disturbances. The suspension of five - year large - denomination certificates of deposit by large banks and the adjustment of medium - and long - term time deposits by small and medium - sized banks led to a decline in the duration of the liability side and weakened the demand of the allocation disk. The central bank's investigation into banks' selling of old bonds also affected the market. [6] - **Potential Risk Factor**: The bond market is facing inflation pressure from statistical improvement and the strong performance of commodities, as well as the problem of the increasing mismatch between supply and demand of ultra - long - term government bonds. [8] Response Measures - **Stay on the Sidelines**: Pay attention to the tone of the year - end meetings and the central bank's statements to observe the bottom of the recent decline. Wait for the central bank's supportive statements to avoid the potential systemic risk of concentrated redemptions caused by the over - decline of ultra - long - term bonds. [8] - **Focus on Opportunities**: Focus on short - term opportunities and long - term opportunities to steepen the yield curve. Short - and medium - term varieties have higher anti - decline attributes and allocation value. [9]

Core Insights - The latest Forbes Billionaires list reveals significant changes among the world's wealthiest individuals, particularly in the tech sector, driven by stock price fluctuations and advancements in AI technology [1][2][3]. Group 1: Wealth Changes Among Billionaires - Larry Page, co-founder of Google, has risen to the second position on the Forbes list with a net worth of $262 billion, an increase of $30 billion from November 1 due to a 14% rise in Alphabet's stock price [1][3]. - Sergey Brin, also a co-founder of Google, saw his wealth increase by $27 billion to approximately $242 billion, moving him up to the fifth position [1]. - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed nearly $5 billion in Alphabet shares, leading to a $9 billion increase in his wealth, bringing it to about $152 billion and elevating him to the tenth position [2][30]. Group 2: Notable Losers - Larry Ellison, founder of Oracle, experienced a significant loss, with his wealth decreasing by $67 billion to $253 billion due to a 23% drop in Oracle's stock price [3][11]. - Jensen Huang of Nvidia saw his wealth decrease by $22 billion to $154 billion, although he maintained the eighth position [3][23]. - Elon Musk, despite a $15 billion decrease in wealth due to a 6% drop in Tesla's stock price, remains the richest person in the world with an estimated net worth of $483 billion [3][8]. Group 3: Overall Billionaire Rankings - As of December 1, 2025, the total wealth of the top ten billionaires is $2.4 trillion, unchanged from the previous month [4]. - The top ten billionaires are predominantly from the United States, with Bernard Arnault from France being the only exception [33]. - All ten individuals on the list are male, with each having a net worth of at least $152 billion [34].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in technology stocks is viewed as a buying opportunity, despite the challenges faced by major players like Tesla, Microsoft, Palantir, and Nvidia due to risk aversion among investors [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Analysts from Wedbush Securities, led by Daniel Ives, noted that the tech sector experienced a difficult trading day, raising concerns about the sustainability of the tech bull market [1] - The sell-off was exacerbated by fears surrounding the "AI bubble" and concerns over Nvidia's revenue being impacted in China, alongside discussions about the implications of OpenAI being "too big to fail" [1] Group 2: Earnings and Growth Projections - The third quarter earnings season revealed strong cloud business performance from Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, indicating robust growth potential [1] - Analysts project that capital expenditures from tech giants could increase significantly, from approximately $380 billion this year to between $550 billion and $600 billion by 2026, driven by the ongoing AI revolution [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing AI arms race is expected to drive growth, with tech giants' spending remaining strong through 2026, as evidenced by Cisco's optimistic quarterly results [2] - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to serve as a critical validation point for the AI revolution and act as a positive catalyst for tech stocks through the end of the year [2]

Core Insights - Microsoft is launching a new chapter in its AI infrastructure by creating a distributed "AI super factory" that connects large data centers across different states, aiming to accelerate AI model training at an unprecedented scale and speed [1][2] - The company plans to double its data center footprint in the next two years to meet the surging demand for computing power, highlighting its core position in the AI infrastructure sector [1][2] Group 1: AI Super Factory Concept - The "AI super factory" concept integrates geographically dispersed data centers into a virtual single supercomputer, differing from traditional data center designs [3] - This distributed network will connect multiple sites, consolidating tens of thousands of advanced GPUs, exabyte-scale storage, and millions of CPU cores to support future AI model training with trillions of parameters [3][4] Group 2: New Data Center Design and Technology - The new "Fairwater" series data centers are specifically designed for AI workloads, with the Atlanta facility covering 85 acres and over 1 million square feet [4] - Key features include high-density architecture, advanced chip systems with NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72, efficient liquid cooling systems, and high-speed internal connectivity [4][5] Group 3: AI WAN and Power Distribution Strategy - Microsoft has deployed 120,000 miles of dedicated fiber optic cables to create an AI WAN, allowing data to be transmitted at near-light speed without congestion [6] - The decision to build across states rather than centralizing power is driven by land and electricity supply considerations, ensuring that no single grid is overburdened [6] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Microsoft is not alone in this race; competitors like Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Oracle are also making significant investments in data center infrastructure [7] - By connecting data centers into a unified distributed system, Microsoft is preparing to meet the substantial demands of top AI companies [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: Credit Business Weekly Report - Date: November 3, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhongtai Securities Research Institute - Analysts: Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - The positive outcome of the China-US economic and trade consultations and the continuous advancement of domestic reform policies have released dual positive signals, boosting market confidence. Future policies and market trends are expected to revolve around the core logic of "great power competition," benefiting the continuous development of domestic and global asset trends [8]. - Investment suggestions focus on three main lines: geopolitical competition (gold, military, rare earths, non-ferrous metals, etc.), technological competition (AI - related sectors), and supply - chain reconstruction (power equipment, polysilicon, etc.) [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Observation: Market Changes after the Positive Outcome of China - US Economic and Trade Consultations Market Performance - A - share major indices showed a "high - then - low" pattern last week. The CSI 300, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index rose in the first half - week and fell in the second half. The CSI 300 and STAR 50 ended the week down 0.43% and 3.19% respectively, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.5%. The CSI 2000 rose 0.95%. The large - cap growth index showed the most obvious "high - then - low" pattern, while the small - cap growth style was strongly supported. The technology sector declined, while the manufacturing and cyclical sectors were stronger [6]. - In terms of sectors, the technology sector declined due to unmet expectations in some aspects, while the manufacturing sector was supported by the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the cyclical sector benefited from geopolitical factors. Non - ferrous metals, steel, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery performed well [6]. Capital Flow - ETF funds showed net inflows, with funds for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index turning from outflows to inflows. The CSI 2000 had a continuous and accelerating inflow, and only the dividend index had a small net outflow. Northbound funds increased significantly, leveraged funds grew steadily, and the margin balance reached a new high on October 29. The pressure of major shareholder reduction remained low [7]. Market Review Market Performance - Most major market indices rose last week, with the CSI 1000 having the largest increase of 1.18%. Among the large - category industry indices, the material index and industrial index performed better, rising 2.98% and 1.36% respectively, while the financial index and information technology index performed weakly, falling 1.43% and 0.93% respectively [9][17]. - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries rose. The power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and steel industries had relatively large increases of 4.29%, 2.56%, and 2.55% respectively, while the communication, beauty care, and banking industries had relatively large declines of 3.59%, 2.21%, and 2.16% respectively [19]. Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 23253.35 billion yuan (previous value: 17973.14 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (94.10% in the three - year historical quantile) [22]. Valuation Tracking - As of October 31, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 22.01, a decrease of 0.58 from the previous week, at the 89.20% quantile in the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 18 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) were repaired [27].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon is initiating its largest-ever layoff, cutting approximately 30,000 corporate employees, primarily affecting white-collar workers rather than warehouse staff, in response to a combination of pandemic-related overstaffing and competitive pressures from the AI arms race [4][5][12]. Group 1: Layoff Details - The layoff will occur in two phases: an initial cut of 14,000 employees followed by a second wave in January 2025, potentially affecting an additional 16,000 or more [12][15]. - As of October 27, 2025, the total number of layoffs in the tech industry has reached over 128,000, with Amazon's actions accounting for about 25% of this total [10][11]. Group 2: AI Competition and Market Position - Amazon's layoffs are partly attributed to the decline in demand post-pandemic, which led to an overstaffing situation as the company doubled its workforce during the pandemic [16][17]. - The company faces increasing pressure from competitors like Microsoft and Google, whose cloud services are growing at significantly higher rates (Microsoft Azure at 39% and Google Cloud at 32%) compared to Amazon Web Services (AWS) at 17.5% [19][20]. - Concerns about AWS's competitive position in the AI space have prompted Amazon's leadership, including founder Jeff Bezos, to express worries about falling behind in the AI race [21][22]. Group 3: Automation and Workforce Transformation - Amazon is pursuing a significant automation strategy, aiming to replace over 500,000 employees with robots and increase automation in operations to 75% [31][33]. - The company has already made substantial investments in robotics, starting with the acquisition of Kiva in 2012, and plans to replicate highly automated warehouses globally by 2027 [35][36]. Group 4: Impact on Employment Landscape - A recent study indicates that the AI wave is disproportionately affecting mid-level white-collar workers, particularly those with average qualifications, while top-tier and low-tier workers are less impacted [42][48]. - The layoffs at Amazon reflect this trend, with significant cuts in HR and entry-level technical positions, which are more susceptible to automation [51][52]. Group 5: Management and Cultural Shifts - The layoffs extend to middle and senior management, with a directive to reduce labor costs by 10% to 15%, indicating a shift in Amazon's management culture towards a leaner structure [65][66]. - CEO Andy Jassy's push for efficiency and reduction of bureaucratic layers is evident in the current restructuring efforts, which aim to streamline decision-making processes [24][66]. Group 6: H-1B Visa Holders and Workforce Dynamics - The layoffs have particularly impacted H-1B visa holders, who face significant challenges in finding new employment within the 60-day grace period after being laid off [76][79]. - Amazon's simultaneous hiring of foreign workers while laying off domestic employees has raised concerns and criticisms regarding its labor practices [80].

Core Insights - The A-share market has shifted from a downward trend in 2023 to a structural market deepening by 2025, providing opportunities for active equity funds to demonstrate their research capabilities [1] - As of September 30, 22 fund companies achieved an arithmetic average return of over 30% in active stock investment over the past three years, highlighting the ability of active equity funds to navigate a differentiated market [1] - Smaller public funds have outperformed larger institutions by leveraging flexible strategies and focused sectors, while larger institutions have overcome scale limitations through systematic research capabilities [1] Fund Performance - The active equity fund landscape has evolved from single-point breakthroughs to a diversified product system, catering to varied investor needs with both long-term stability and short-term flexibility [2] - Notably, 26 active equity products from Nuoan Fund have doubled their returns since inception, with 15 products achieving an annualized return exceeding 10% [2] - The success of these funds is attributed to accurate industry trend predictions and proactive investment strategies, exemplified by Nuoan Fund's focus on AI and semiconductor sectors [2] Investment Strategies - Smaller institutions have achieved success by focusing on niche technology sectors, allowing for agile responses to industry changes [3] - Larger institutions maintain sensitivity to industry trends through comprehensive research systems, avoiding performance dilution from scale while achieving long-term stable returns [3]