1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Iron ore: -2 (most bearish) [5] - Rebar: 0 (neutral) [9] - Hot-rolled coil: 0 (neutral) [9] - Ferrosilicon: -1 (bearish) [13] - Silicomanganese: -1 (bearish) [13] - Coke: -1 (bearish) [16] - Coking coal: -1 (bearish) [16] - Thermal coal: 0 (neutral) [19] - Logs: -1 (bearish) [24] 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore faces downward price risks due to weak demand expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate at low levels with negative feedback expectations leading [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon will experience weak oscillations due to poor demand expectations, and silicomanganese will also have weak oscillations as port ore transactions are under pressure [2][11]. - Coke has seen the second round of price cuts implemented and is expected to oscillate weakly, while coking coal is also expected to oscillate weakly [2][14]. - Thermal coal is stabilizing at the bottom stage [2][17]. - Logs are expected to oscillate weakly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 702.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan (-0.71%); open interest decreased by 1,831 hands. Spot prices of various iron ores declined, with the largest drop of 5.0 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also changed slightly [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.77%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.55%). Spot prices in most regions decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the weekly data on May 29, rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 13.87 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 1.55 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons. On May 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week - on - week; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week; the daily average pig iron output was 241.91 tons, down 1.69 tons week - on - week. In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, pig iron output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and steel output increased by 1.9% month - on - month [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicomanganese increased by 120 yuan/ton, while that of ferrosilicon decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of May 30, prices of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Manganese ore inventory at major ports decreased by 13.83 million tons week - on - week as of May 30. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions decreased, and that of coke also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: Coking coal quotes at northern ports were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts in the top 20 members of the DCE changed [14][16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Quotes of foreign trade thermal coal at southern ports and domestic thermal coal at production areas were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of the ZC2506 contract in the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of most log products remained stable, with only a few showing small fluctuations [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% year - on - year [24].

Core Viewpoint - New York copper futures saw a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 4.5% at one point [1] Group 1 - The surge in copper futures indicates strong market demand and potential bullish sentiment in the commodities sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by export data and support from crude oil prices, but the MACD indicator suggests potential caution for future price movements [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Export data has positively influenced the palm oil market, contributing to its strong performance [1] - Crude oil prices are providing additional support to the palm oil market, enhancing its bullish momentum [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator is revealing contrasting signals, indicating that while the market is currently strong, there may be underlying risks that could affect future price trends [1]

Core Insights - The aviation fuel market is experiencing a significant shift, referred to as the "golden route," indicating potential premium support for Brent crude oil prices [1] - A market turning point is anticipated next month, which could influence pricing dynamics in the aviation fuel sector [1] Industry Summary - The aviation fuel market is currently under observation for emerging trends that could lead to increased pricing power for Brent crude oil [1] - The potential for a premium on Brent crude oil suggests a favorable outlook for oil producers and related stakeholders in the aviation sector [1] - Upcoming developments in the market are expected to be critical, with a pivotal moment projected for next month that may alter the current trajectory of aviation fuel pricing [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for freight rates to rise due to a surge in shipping demand driven by a trade window period and the approach of the traditional peak season [1] Group 1: Freight Rates and Demand - There is an expectation that freight rates may experience an increase as a result of heightened shipping activity [1] - The upcoming traditional peak season is anticipated to further amplify this demand for shipping services [1] Group 2: Shipping Trends - The article raises questions about when the peak arrival period at ports will occur, indicating a focus on logistics and supply chain dynamics [1] - The current trade window period is identified as a catalyst for a rush in shipping activities, suggesting a temporary spike in demand [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the weak export performance of U.S. soybeans and the uncertainty surrounding biodiesel policies, raising questions about when soybean and soybean oil markets will experience a trend reversal [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Exports - U.S. soybean exports are currently underperforming, indicating a potential challenge for the market [1] - The sluggish export activity may impact pricing and demand dynamics for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 2: Biodiesel Policy Uncertainty - The future of biodiesel policies remains uncertain, which could further complicate the market outlook for soybean oil [1] - The lack of clarity in biodiesel regulations may hinder investment and production decisions within the industry [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The combination of weak exports and unresolved biodiesel policies suggests that a significant market trend for soybeans and soybean oil may not materialize in the near term [1] - Stakeholders are closely monitoring these developments to identify potential investment opportunities or risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contracts for crude oil have experienced a significant increase, with fuel oil rising over 3% and SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil both rising over 2% [1] Group 1 - The primary crude oil futures contracts have shown a sharp upward trend [1] - Fuel oil prices have surged by more than 3% [1] - SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil have both increased by over 2% [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. corn crop is experiencing its worst start in six years in terms of good-to-excellent ratings, raising concerns about future yields and market dynamics [1] - The upcoming weather patterns in June are expected to influence market speculation, particularly regarding soybean prices [1] Group 1 - The current good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn is at its lowest level in six years, indicating potential challenges for the crop yield [1] - Market participants are advised to monitor weather developments closely as they will play a crucial role in shaping the agricultural commodity prices in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The focus will shift to how soybean prices will react to the anticipated weather changes, which could lead to increased volatility in the market [1] - The period after June is expected to be critical for weather-related trading activities, impacting both corn and soybean markets [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the supply has decreased and demand has recovered, but there is still inventory accumulation. In the medium - short term, production is under downward pressure, with insufficient downstream procurement potential and weak demand. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation. The futures price lacks continuous upward momentum, and the price will re - enter a downward channel with a likely weak and volatile trend [8]. - For glass, the supply has significantly declined and may continue to fall. The demand is in a traditional off - season with weak cyclical demand, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve. With the deep adjustment of the real estate industry, the demand for glass is not effectively boosted. In the short term, as it enters the traditional off - season, the overall enterprise inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price may show a strong and volatile trend, with short - term rebound opportunities [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market on May 27**: The main futures contract SA509 fluctuated downward, hitting a new contract low. The closing price was 1231 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 2.30%, with an increase of 56,719 lots in positions. The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in the central China region was 1380 - 1460 yuan/ton, with a change of 0/-20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the light - quality soda ash price remained unchanged. As of May 22, the weekly production of soda ash in China dropped to 663,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 78.63%. The enterprise shipment volume was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.81%, and the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy - quality soda ash remained at 860,000 tons with a slight reduction [7][8]. - **Glass Market on May 27**: The main futures contract FG509 had an opening price of 1022 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1031 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.17%, with a decrease of 28,030 lots in positions. The FG601 contract had a closing price of 1084 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.55%, with an increase of 6745 lots in positions. In the future, the glass supply has dropped significantly to the level of February this year and may continue to fall. The demand is in a traditional off - season, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve in the short term [7][9]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue the 2025 Special Treasury Bonds (Phase II) for Capital Injection into Central Financial Institutions on June 4. The re - issued bonds are 7 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds with a competitive tender face value of 105 billion yuan and no additional bids from Class A members. The coupon rate is the same as the previously issued bonds of the same period, at 1.57%. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the market price of baking soda in Henan is stable with average trading. The mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda is estimated at 1180 - 1260 yuan/ton. - The domestic float glass market is generally stable with minor fluctuations. Some factories slightly lowered their prices, and the trading atmosphere is average. In North China, the price is stable with weak demand support; in East China, some factories lowered the price by 1 yuan per weight box; in Central China, the price is stable with strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment; in South China, factories adjusted their ex - factory policies for shipment at the end of the month, with some offering discounts and others planning price increases; in Southwest China, the price is stable with average trading [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Spot Price and Futures Data - On May 26, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6200 yuan/ton with no change; in Kunming it was 5970 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 6260 yuan/ton with no change [4] - The price of SR09 was 5835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; SR01 was 5699 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spread between SR09 - 01 was 136 yuan, down 4 yuan [4] Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1915, down 0.0291; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar's main contract was 17.31, with no change; the price of London white sugar's main contract was 573, up 3; the price of Brent crude oil's main contract was 65.03, with no change [4] Supply and Market Analysis - In the second half of April in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume increased year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio remained high, and the expected sugar production in the 2025/2026 crushing season may reach 42 million tons, leading to a strong global supply surplus [4] - Earlier, when ICE raw sugar fell below 18 cents per pound, it triggered domestic sugar purchases. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons. Imported sugar is expected to arrive at ports gradually from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The cost of out - of - quota imports from Brazil dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot prices narrowed to 150 yuan/ton. The recovery of import profits will stimulate subsequent purchases [4] - From January to March, the import of syrups and premixes was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continue to squeeze the consumption space of domestic sugar [4]