1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the double festivals, leading to a low - level repair of steel prices. However, the rebound height may be limited as the supply - demand gap in September, although alleviated, remains at a high level. After the contraction of per - ton steel profit, the driving force for further decline slows down. The raw material varieties show obvious differentiation, and short - term attention should be paid to cost fluctuations. Currently, the long - short game is intense, and prices remain fluctuating within the range. The rebound pressure is concerned with off - peak electricity cost, and cautious operation is recommended [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Price and Output**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3260 yuan (+70), and the price of hot - rolled coil was 3420 yuan (+20). As of September 18, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 17,800 tons. The inventory in steel mills decreased by 11,400 tons, and the social inventory increased by 62,700 tons. The apparent demand was 8.5033 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 tons [5] - **Profit**: As of September 19, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3135 yuan, with a profit of about 95 yuan per ton; the cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 185 yuan per ton. In the electric - arc furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of East China rebar was about 3335 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3208 yuan. The profit of flat - rate electricity was about - 245 yuan per ton, and the profit of off - peak electricity was about - 118 yuan per ton [5] - **Scrap Steel**: As of September 18, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 32.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 531,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,300 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,500 tons, with an increase rate of 5.1%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.325 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,500 tons, with an increase rate of 0.9% [6] - **Macro Data**: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 1.7%. The pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 2.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron was 579 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 672 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [20] - **Investment and Real Estate Data**: From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In August, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.85% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 19.95% year - on - year. From January to August, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing start - up area was 398.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area was 276.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [28][31] 3.2 Main Variety Basis, Main Variety Inter - Period, Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has been falling from a high level this week [42] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Long - Process Supply**: As of September 19, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points, with an increase rate of 0.19%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4700 tons, with an increase rate of 0.20% [45] - **Short - Process Supply**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 32.3% (- 2.8). As of September 19, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 13 yuan (- 59) [48] - **Scrap Steel Arrival, Consumption, and Inventory**: The daily arrival of 255 steel mills increased, the daily consumption decreased, and the inventory increased [6] 3.4 Demand - Related Data - **Building Materials Transaction**: The transaction volume data of building materials in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [64][67][68] - **Cement Mill Start - Up Rate**: The average start - up load of cement mills has increased to a certain extent. The average start - up load of national cement mills is 44.88%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points, and the increase rate has narrowed by 1.97 percentage points. The demand growth is still weak, and most regions have no obvious increase and are still in a fluctuating state [73] - **Real Estate Sales**: The high - frequency data of real estate sales in 30 cities are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [75] 3.5 Product - Specific Supply and Demand - **Rebar**: This week, the original sample rebar output was 2.0645 million tons (- 54,800), including 1.7972 million tons of long - process output (- 48,500) and 267,300 tons of short - process output (- 6300). The original sample rebar mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons (- 15,600), the social inventory was 4.8521 million tons (- 20,200), and the total inventory was 6.5028 million tons (- 35,800) [61][78] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 326,490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,500 tons. The apparent demand was 321,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,400 tons. In terms of inventory, the mill inventory increased by 4200 tons, the social inventory increased by 42,500 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 46,700 tons [81] 3.6 Other Data - **Cold - Hot Price Difference**: As of September 19, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 510 yuan/ton (- 10) [88] - **Export Situation**: As of September 19, the FOB export price in China was 485 US dollars (+6), the export profit was - 5.7 US dollars (- 2), and the outbound volume of 32 domestic major ports was 2.8305 million tons (+122,200) [92]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating and bullish, while the medium - term view is oscillating. The market sentiment has warmed up, and with the pre - holiday restocking expectation, bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices. However, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that bullish factors are fermenting, leading to the bullish operation of ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and the night - session ore price has risen again. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to run smoothly. The terminal consumption of ore has increased, and with the approaching holiday restocking, the demand is good, providing strong support for ore prices. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, but the shipment of overseas miners has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, reaching a new high for the single week of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian ore will increase, and the supply of domestic ore has recovered, so the ore supply will increase. - Overall, although bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is rising. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [3].

Group 1 - Coking coal and coke prices surged over 4% due to multiple factors, including production halts and rising expectations of supply constraints [1] - A coal mine in Shanxi province ceased operations on September 14, with an uncertain resumption timeline, affecting a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and a daily output of approximately 3,000 tons [1] - The recovery in iron and steel production, along with pre-holiday stockpiling expectations, is expected to lead to weaker coking coal supply compared to the same period last year [1][2] Group 2 - The operating rate of coking enterprises reached 75.92%, the highest level this year, driven by rapid recovery in downstream iron production [1] - Despite the traditional peak demand season for steel, overall steel demand remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 45.94 million tons in apparent consumption of five major steel products [2] - Steel mills are experiencing compressed profits due to high production and low demand, limiting the potential for further increases in iron production [2][3] Group 3 - Coking enterprises have begun to slow down their inventory replenishment, focusing more on consumption, with coking coal inventories dropping to 8.83 million tons [3] - The current high levels of iron production may limit support for steel prices, which in turn could suppress raw material prices [3] - Future price trends for coking coal may not be overly pessimistic, as potential supply reduction policies could emerge in the fourth quarter [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of policy-driven inventory replenishment expectations on the price of ethylene glycol, raising questions about the sustainability of this price increase [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - Recent policies have led to increased expectations for inventory replenishment, which is influencing the price dynamics of ethylene glycol [1] - The market anticipates that demand from end-users will rise in August, further affecting price trends [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The article raises concerns about how long the current price increase of ethylene glycol can be sustained amid changing market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the main futures contract for coking coal has risen by over 1% in the night session, driven by expectations of inventory replenishment despite weak actual demand in the market [1] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that future prices may be influenced by the balance between replenishment needs and the current demand weakness [1]