1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the double festivals, leading to a low - level repair of steel prices. However, the rebound height may be limited as the supply - demand gap in September, although alleviated, remains at a high level. After the contraction of per - ton steel profit, the driving force for further decline slows down. The raw material varieties show obvious differentiation, and short - term attention should be paid to cost fluctuations. Currently, the long - short game is intense, and prices remain fluctuating within the range. The rebound pressure is concerned with off - peak electricity cost, and cautious operation is recommended [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Price and Output**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3260 yuan (+70), and the price of hot - rolled coil was 3420 yuan (+20). As of September 18, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 17,800 tons. The inventory in steel mills decreased by 11,400 tons, and the social inventory increased by 62,700 tons. The apparent demand was 8.5033 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 tons [5] - **Profit**: As of September 19, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3135 yuan, with a profit of about 95 yuan per ton; the cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 185 yuan per ton. In the electric - arc furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of East China rebar was about 3335 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3208 yuan. The profit of flat - rate electricity was about - 245 yuan per ton, and the profit of off - peak electricity was about - 118 yuan per ton [5] - **Scrap Steel**: As of September 18, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 32.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 531,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,300 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,500 tons, with an increase rate of 5.1%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.325 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,500 tons, with an increase rate of 0.9% [6] - **Macro Data**: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 1.7%. The pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 2.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron was 579 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 672 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [20] - **Investment and Real Estate Data**: From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In August, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.85% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 19.95% year - on - year. From January to August, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing start - up area was 398.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area was 276.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [28][31] 3.2 Main Variety Basis, Main Variety Inter - Period, Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has been falling from a high level this week [42] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Long - Process Supply**: As of September 19, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points, with an increase rate of 0.19%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4700 tons, with an increase rate of 0.20% [45] - **Short - Process Supply**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 32.3% (- 2.8). As of September 19, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 13 yuan (- 59) [48] - **Scrap Steel Arrival, Consumption, and Inventory**: The daily arrival of 255 steel mills increased, the daily consumption decreased, and the inventory increased [6] 3.4 Demand - Related Data - **Building Materials Transaction**: The transaction volume data of building materials in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [64][67][68] - **Cement Mill Start - Up Rate**: The average start - up load of cement mills has increased to a certain extent. The average start - up load of national cement mills is 44.88%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points, and the increase rate has narrowed by 1.97 percentage points. The demand growth is still weak, and most regions have no obvious increase and are still in a fluctuating state [73] - **Real Estate Sales**: The high - frequency data of real estate sales in 30 cities are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [75] 3.5 Product - Specific Supply and Demand - **Rebar**: This week, the original sample rebar output was 2.0645 million tons (- 54,800), including 1.7972 million tons of long - process output (- 48,500) and 267,300 tons of short - process output (- 6300). The original sample rebar mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons (- 15,600), the social inventory was 4.8521 million tons (- 20,200), and the total inventory was 6.5028 million tons (- 35,800) [61][78] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 326,490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,500 tons. The apparent demand was 321,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,400 tons. In terms of inventory, the mill inventory increased by 4200 tons, the social inventory increased by 42,500 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 46,700 tons [81] 3.6 Other Data - **Cold - Hot Price Difference**: As of September 19, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 510 yuan/ton (- 10) [88] - **Export Situation**: As of September 19, the FOB export price in China was 485 US dollars (+6), the export profit was - 5.7 US dollars (- 2), and the outbound volume of 32 domestic major ports was 2.8305 million tons (+122,200) [92]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating and bullish, while the medium - term view is oscillating. The market sentiment has warmed up, and with the pre - holiday restocking expectation, bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices. However, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that bullish factors are fermenting, leading to the bullish operation of ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and the night - session ore price has risen again. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to run smoothly. The terminal consumption of ore has increased, and with the approaching holiday restocking, the demand is good, providing strong support for ore prices. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, but the shipment of overseas miners has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, reaching a new high for the single week of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian ore will increase, and the supply of domestic ore has recovered, so the ore supply will increase. - Overall, although bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is rising. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [3].

Group 1 - Coking coal and coke prices surged over 4% due to multiple factors, including production halts and rising expectations of supply constraints [1] - A coal mine in Shanxi province ceased operations on September 14, with an uncertain resumption timeline, affecting a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and a daily output of approximately 3,000 tons [1] - The recovery in iron and steel production, along with pre-holiday stockpiling expectations, is expected to lead to weaker coking coal supply compared to the same period last year [1][2] Group 2 - The operating rate of coking enterprises reached 75.92%, the highest level this year, driven by rapid recovery in downstream iron production [1] - Despite the traditional peak demand season for steel, overall steel demand remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 45.94 million tons in apparent consumption of five major steel products [2] - Steel mills are experiencing compressed profits due to high production and low demand, limiting the potential for further increases in iron production [2][3] Group 3 - Coking enterprises have begun to slow down their inventory replenishment, focusing more on consumption, with coking coal inventories dropping to 8.83 million tons [3] - The current high levels of iron production may limit support for steel prices, which in turn could suppress raw material prices [3] - Future price trends for coking coal may not be overly pessimistic, as potential supply reduction policies could emerge in the fourth quarter [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of policy-driven inventory replenishment expectations on the price of ethylene glycol, raising questions about the sustainability of this price increase [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - Recent policies have led to increased expectations for inventory replenishment, which is influencing the price dynamics of ethylene glycol [1] - The market anticipates that demand from end-users will rise in August, further affecting price trends [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The article raises concerns about how long the current price increase of ethylene glycol can be sustained amid changing market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the main futures contract for coking coal has risen by over 1% in the night session, driven by expectations of inventory replenishment despite weak actual demand in the market [1] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that future prices may be influenced by the balance between replenishment needs and the current demand weakness [1]