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纪源资本对话聚复科技:3D打印的潜力还远远没有被发挥——投资笔记第241期
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-22 03:32
Core Insights - 聚复科技, also known as Polymaker, is a pioneer in the 3D printing materials sector, which has gained renewed attention as the consumer market for 3D printing expands [2][4] - The company was founded by four alumni from Fudan University, and its name reflects their educational background [4] - The 3D printing industry has experienced significant fluctuations, with periods of overestimation and underestimation of its potential [6][7] Industry Development - The 3D printing sector has gone through two major cycles of hype and subsequent downturns, with the first bubble occurring around 2013-2014 [6][7] - The second cycle saw a shift in expectations, with many companies that emerged during this period now facing challenges [7] - Despite short-term setbacks, long-term trends indicate that the market for 3D printing materials is growing, with millions of low-cost 3D printers shipped [9] Importance of Materials - Materials play a crucial role in 3D printing, affecting the stability and consistency of printed products [10] - The properties of materials determine their application breadth and depth, which cannot be fulfilled solely by the printing equipment [10][12] - Consumer-grade materials may differ in complexity from industrial-grade materials, but they still have significant demands for safety, aesthetics, and tactile qualities [10][12] R&D and Market Needs - The development of materials often requires a balance between engineering-driven innovation and market-driven needs [14] - Early R&D efforts were sometimes disconnected from market demands, leading to a reassessment of the approach to align better with customer needs [14] - The challenge lies in finding a balance between proactive innovation and reactive development based on customer feedback [14] Global Competition - Historically, the 3D printing industry was led by Western companies, but Chinese firms are now becoming increasingly influential [17] - While Chinese companies may contribute less to innovation, they excel in engineering and product capabilities [17] Future Outlook - The 3D printing market is still in its early stages, with significant room for technological advancement and broader adoption [18] - The potential of 3D printing remains largely untapped, and its integration into manufacturing processes is expected to grow [18][20] - A future where 3D printing is a standard option in manufacturing processes would signify the technology's maturity [20][22]
北京独角兽冲刺港交所,多地国资下注的智谱终于要IPO了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 03:00
文 / 零度 来源 / 节点财经 据港交所12月19日披露,北京智谱华章科技股份有限公司(以下简称"智谱")向港交所主板递交上市申请,中金公司为独家保荐人。 如果智谱冲击港交所成功,那么它将成为全球首家上市的大模型公司。 而智谱这份招股书,不仅展现了当前大模型企业的盈利情况,也揭示了在百模大战后,大模型企业商业化落地的样本。 值得注意的是,这场"第一股"之争并非独角戏。 12月17日,智谱与同为大模型"六小虎"的MiniMax(上海稀宇极智)双双通过港交所上市聆讯,前者主攻文本基座模型,后者聚焦多模态领域,形成"一 北一南"的竞争格局。 短短两天后,智谱率先披露招股书,被市场解读为在竞速赛中抢占先机。 但资本市场的估值逻辑从来不止于"速度"。对于烧钱属性极强的大模型企业而言,持续亏损的收窄潜力、商业化落地的可持续性,才是决定其能否通过资 本考验的核心。 01 325%营收高增背后,累计亏损62亿 智谱招股书披露的财务数据,精准折射出当前独立大模型厂商的普遍困境。收入高增长与亏损大幅扩大并存,且亏损增速远超收入增速,盈利平衡点尚遥 不可及。 从收入端看,智谱的增长表现堪称亮眼。2022年至2024年,营收分别为 ...
X @Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal· 2025-12-22 02:47
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Development - The industry has observed a rapid advancement in AI capabilities, transitioning from basic chatbots to systems with an estimated IQ of 140+ across various subjects within three years [1] - The industry suggests that AGI, defined as surpassing the average human intelligence, was achieved last year [2] - The industry anticipates AGI surpassing 99% of human intelligence within a year [2] Economic Impact and Future Implications - The industry highlights the potential for an "Economic Singularity," emphasizing a limited timeframe of five years to leverage AI technology for economic gain before potential displacement [2] - The industry notes a reluctance to officially announce AGI due to concerns about the potential replacement of humans as the dominant intelligence [1]
狂奔AGI,Claude年终封王,自主编码近5小时震惊全网
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-22 02:02
Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive capabilities of Anthropic's programming model, Claude Opus 4.5, which has outperformed competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5.1-Codex-Max in coding tasks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - Claude Opus 4.5 can autonomously code for up to 5 hours without crashing, showcasing significant advancements in AI coding agents [2]. - The 50% task completion time for Claude Opus 4.5 is approximately 4 hours and 49 minutes, which is the longest reported to date, while GPT-5.1-Codex-Max can complete tasks in 2 hours and 53 minutes [14]. - Despite its longer 50% task completion time, Opus 4.5's 80% task completion time is only 27 minutes, which is lower than GPT-5.1-Codex-Max's 32 minutes, indicating a smoother success rate curve for longer tasks [17][20]. Group 2: Future Projections - By 2026, AI agents are expected to independently complete a full human workday, with capabilities increasing to handle tasks equivalent to several months of human work by 2028 [13]. - The article suggests that the advancements in AI coding agents are accelerating, moving from minute-level tasks to hour-level tasks, indicating a significant leap in capabilities [9][10]. Group 3: Memory Challenges - The article identifies memory as the final barrier to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), emphasizing that current AI models lack the ability to retain long-term memory effectively [25][30]. - Current AI systems primarily rely on retrieval-based memory, which is insufficient for complex tasks, highlighting the need for a more sophisticated memory system that mimics human memory [33][35]. - The industry anticipates breakthroughs in memory systems within the next year, which could significantly enhance AI's learning capabilities and overall performance [40][41].
人均「95后」,账上超十亿美金,MiniMax叩响港股大门
机器之心· 2025-12-21 17:22
Core Viewpoint - The rapid pace of IPOs for AI startups, exemplified by MiniMax, highlights the growing significance and potential of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the market [2][5]. Company Overview - MiniMax, founded in December 2021 and headquartered in Shanghai, focuses on developing multi-modal artificial intelligence technologies [4]. - The company is recognized for its foundational models MiniMax M1 and M2, as well as AI-native products like Hailuo AI and Xingye [4]. Market Position and User Base - MiniMax is poised to set a record as the fastest AI company from establishment to IPO [5]. - The company has over 2.12 billion personal users across more than 200 countries and regions, with over 100,000 enterprises and developers [9]. - The average monthly active users of AI-native products surged from 3.14 million in 2023 to 27.62 million in the first nine months of 2025, indicating strong user engagement [9]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, MiniMax reported revenues of $53.44 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 174.7% [9]. - The revenue primarily comes from AI-native product subscriptions and enterprise services, with a gross margin of 69.4% for B2B services [10]. - The adjusted net loss for the same period was $186 million, reflecting a slight increase of 8.6% despite significant revenue growth [22]. Research and Development - MiniMax has a strong focus on R&D, with expenditures reaching $180 million in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 337.4% of total revenue [22]. - The company has made significant advancements in multi-modal AI technologies, launching several models that have gained international recognition [13][15]. Leadership and Organizational Structure - The executive board of MiniMax is notably young, with an average age of 32, reflecting the company's tech-driven and innovative culture [29][30]. - The leadership team is deeply involved in R&D and business operations, aligning with the company's focus on long-term technological investment and efficiency [31]. Future Plans - MiniMax plans to use approximately 70% of the funds raised from the IPO for R&D over the next five years, focusing on model upgrades and AI-native product development [34]. - The company aims to enhance social productivity and individual quality of life through its vision of "Intelligence with Everyone" [37].
MiniMax叩响港股大门:4年累计亏损5亿?账上现金超过10亿美金!
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-21 16:54
(原标题:MiniMax叩响港股大门:4年累计亏损5亿?账上现金超过10亿美金!) 4年累计亏损5.3亿,这是不是一家值得投资的公司? 商业闭环:70%海外收入的全球化突围 技术领先若不能变现,终将沦为实验室展品。但MiniMax早已跑通一条可持续、高毛利、全球化的商业 化路径。 它是中国最会赚钱的AI公司之一。2025年前九个月,营收达5344万美元,同比增长170%。更关键的 是,其收入结构健康多元:C端订阅占比超71%(Talkie、海螺AI等),B端API毛利率高达69.4%——而同 行同口径业务毛利几乎为零。公司毛利从2023年的-24.7%快速转正,于2024年达到12.2%,并在2025年 前九个月进一步提升至23.3%。 B端同样势不可挡。MiniMax是唯一被亚马逊AWS Bedrock唯一点名引入的中国大模型,同时登陆谷歌 Vertex AI、微软AI Foundry三大云平台。其客户横跨科技、创意、硬件、广告等多个领域,如LinkedIn 用其生成广告视频;Veed用其驱动数字人…… 这种双轮驱动模式带来极强的抗风险能力。截至2025年9月,MiniMax拥有2.12亿个人用户和13万企 ...
MiniMax叩响港股大门:4年累计亏损5亿?账上现金超过10亿美金!
智通财经网· 2025-12-21 16:28
3年半亏损5.11亿美元,且最近半年亏损1.86亿美元,这是不是一家值得投资的公司? 这不是科幻小说的桥段,而是一家名为MiniMax稀宇科技)的中国公司在2025年12月21日向港交所递交的招股书中,所揭示的真实图景。在AI行业深陷"算力 军备竞赛"与"DAU内卷"的焦虑之际,MiniMax用三年多时间完成了一场近乎"反常识"的叙事重构。 它并非OpenAI的复刻品,而更像一份写给"AI集权时代"的叛逃宣言——当行业陷入"算力军备竞赛"和"DAU内卷"时,它以极致效率重构技术壁垒的底层逻 辑,以全球化视野打破地域桎梏的产业格局,在OpenAI高达7500亿美元估值的宏大叙事旁,坚定地写下了自己的中国注脚。 破局者登场:29岁组织的效率密码 要理解MiniMax,首先需打破两个根深蒂固的"常识"。 但在这亏损的另一面,是:385人,平均年龄29岁,累计融资15亿美元,实际花费仅5亿,便跻身全球全模态AGI四强,70%收入来自海外,服务覆盖200个 国家与地区的2.12亿用户。 | | | | 截至12月31日止年度 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2022年 | ...
腾讯研究院AI速递 20251222
腾讯研究院· 2025-12-21 16:01
Group 1: Moore Threads Technology Roadmap - Moore Threads has unveiled its new generation full-featured GPU architecture "Huagang," which boasts a 50% increase in computing density and a 10-fold improvement in energy efficiency, supporting full precision calculations from FP4 to FP64 and capable of supporting over 100,000 card intelligent computing clusters [1] - The company is set to release the "Huashan" AI training and inference integrated chip and the "Lushan" high-performance graphics rendering GPU, with a computing power of 10 EFLOPS for the Wan Card intelligent computing cluster, and the S5000 single card inference sets a new record for domestic GPU performance [1] - The AI computing book MTT AIBOOK, equipped with the "Yangtze River" SoC chip, offers 50 TOPS heterogeneous AI computing power and can locally run large models with up to 30 billion parameters, now available for pre-sale on JD.com [1] Group 2: OpenAI's GPT-5.2-Codex Launch - OpenAI has launched GPT-5.2-Codex, which is considered the most advanced intelligent coding model to date, achieving state-of-the-art performance in SWE-Bench Pro and Terminal-Bench 2.0 benchmark tests [2] - Compared to GPT-5.2, it has improved instruction-following capabilities, long context understanding, and network security features, with better performance in Windows environments and significant improvements in token efficiency at mid-high inference levels [2] - The model is now available to paid ChatGPT users across all Codex platforms, with plans to open access to API users in the coming weeks and provide more lenient access for defensive cybersecurity professionals [2] Group 3: Google's Gemma Models - Google has open-sourced two models from the Gemma 3 family, T5Gemma 2 and FunctionGemma, with T5Gemma 2 being the first multi-modal long-context encoder-decoder model, available in sizes of 270M-270M, 1B-1B, and 4B-4B [3] - FunctionGemma is optimized for function calls, running on just 270 million parameters, suitable for mobile and browser devices, and supports precise structured data output for external API calls, making it ideal for edge AI agent applications [3] - T5Gemma 2 returns to the classic Encoder-Decoder architecture, surpassing similarly sized Gemma 3 models in multi-modal performance, code reasoning, and long context capabilities, while FunctionGemma can be reduced to 135MB for operation through quantization [3] Group 4: NVIDIA's NitroGen Model - NVIDIA has open-sourced the NitroGen foundational model, designed to play over 1,000 games, using game video frames as input to output real controller operation signals, and supports rapid adaptation to new games through post-training [4] - The model is based on the GR00T N1.5 architecture and utilizes 500 million parameters, trained by automatically extracting action labels from 40,000 hours of publicly available game videos, covering various game types including RPGs, platformers, and racing [4] - It can accomplish non-trivial tasks without fine-tuning, achieving a task success rate improvement of up to 52% compared to models trained from scratch, and the dataset, evaluation suite, and model weights have been made open-source [4] Group 5: OpenAI's Codex Agent Skills Support - OpenAI has announced that Codex now fully supports Agent Skills, integrating with industry-standard specifications led by Anthropic, which include markdown commands and optional script resources [5] - It allows for explicit calls (via /skills command or $selection) and implicit calls (automatically matching descriptions based on tasks), with skill storage prioritized from the current working directory to the user's personal directory [5] - Built-in tools like $skill-creator and $skill-installer are provided to automatically generate skill frameworks or install skills from third-party repositories like GitHub, with an official Skill library released by OpenAI [5] Group 6: Luma AI's Ray3 Modify - Luma AI has launched the Ray3 Modify feature, emphasizing a "real person first, AI follows" approach to video production, where actor performances and camera movements serve as the foundational input for AI processing [6] - It supports keyframe control (start and end frames), character reference capabilities, and retains the integrity of performances, allowing the same performance to be placed in different scenes for various content versions without reshooting [6] - Integrated into the Dream Machine platform, it targets film production, advertising creativity, and post-production processes, enabling creators to maintain control without the need for repeated filming [6] Group 7: METR Report on Claude Opus 4.5 - The METR report indicates that Claude Opus 4.5 can sustain coding for approximately 4 hours and 49 minutes, marking the longest time span reported to date, surpassing GPT-5.1-Codex-Max's 2 hours and 53 minutes [9] - The task duration for AI coding agents is showing exponential growth, doubling every 7 months from 2019 to 2024, and expected to double every 4 months from 2024 to 2025, with predictions that AI will complete a full workday's tasks by April 2026 [9] - The industry views long-term memory as the final challenge towards achieving AGI, as current models rely on retrieval tools and context compression, lacking true self-learning and persistent memory capabilities [9] Group 8: Google AI's Success Story - Josh Woodward, the head of Google AI products, has driven the Gemini application’s monthly active users from 350 million in March to 650 million in October, surpassing ChatGPT to top the App Store rankings [10] - At 42 years old and from Oklahoma, he joined Google through an internship in 2009, contributing to Chromebook development, founding the NBU initiative, and leading the expansion of Google Pay, before taking over as Gemini application head in April 2025 [10] - He has promoted the NotebookLM project to break Google's traditional practices by utilizing Discord for community engagement, establishing a "Block" ticketing system to eliminate bureaucratic obstacles, and initiating the "Papercuts" plan to address minor issues, emphasizing the balance between AI innovation and social responsibility [10]
海外市场收入贡献占比超70% MiniMax何以用385人“小团队”撬动全球AGI市场?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-21 14:49
Core Insights - MiniMax is poised to set a record for the fastest IPO from establishment to listing among AI companies, having been founded only four years ago [1] - The company aims to be the "first global AGI stock" listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing its technological advancements and global market reach [2] Technological Advancements - MiniMax has developed a multi-modal general model matrix, with its open-source text model M2 ranking in the top five globally and first in the open-source category according to the Artificial Analysis (AA) evaluation [2][14] - The company has launched a series of AI-native products, including MiniMax Agent and Talkie, which support multiple languages and cater to both consumer and business markets [3][7] Global Market Strategy - MiniMax has established a global presence, serving over 200 million individual users and 100,000 enterprises across more than 200 countries and regions [3] - The company reported a revenue growth of over 170% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, with over 70% of its revenue coming from international markets [3] Business Model and Revenue Streams - MiniMax has diversified its revenue channels, including subscription services, in-app purchases, and enterprise APIs [9] - The number of paid users for its AI-native products is projected to grow from approximately 119,700 in 2023 to about 177,160 by September 30, 2025 [8] Team and Management - The company has a youthful workforce, with an average employee age of 29 and 74% of its staff in research and development roles [11] - The flat management structure has contributed to its rapid technological advancements and global product development [11] Vision and Future Outlook - MiniMax's founder emphasized the importance of serving customers directly and maintaining a technology-driven approach as core principles for the company's growth [6] - The company aims to make AGI accessible and beneficial to the public, moving beyond theoretical models to practical applications [15][16]
MiniMax冲击港股:现金储备超11亿美元,海外收入超七成
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-12-21 14:12
新京报贝壳财经讯(记者罗亦丹)12月21日晚,AI独角兽MiniMax(稀宇科技)首次刊发其聆讯后资料 集(PHIP)版本的招股书资料。作为一家2022年初成立的公司,MiniMax有望刷新纪录,成为从成立到 IPO 历时最短的AI公司。 具体来看,MiniMax 打造了覆盖C端与B端的AI原生产品矩阵,招股书中披露的产品包括MiniMax、 MiniMax语音、海螺AI、Talkie/星野(注:Talkie即星野海外版),以及为企业用户和开发者提供开放 平台服务。记者注意到,海螺AI和Talkie/星野是该公司的主力营收产品,2025年前9个月上述两项产品 的收入分别达到1746.4万美元、1875万美元。同时,开放平台及其他基于AI的企业服务的营收也达到了 1541.7万美元。 不过,如果参考"经调整净亏损(Non-IFRS)"指标(全球科技初创公司衡量业务可持续性的通用标 准),MiniMax经调整净亏损在2025年前9个月的数据为1.86亿美元,与2024年同期的1.7亿美元近乎持 平,照此看来亏损有正在收窄的趋势。 MiniMax获得米哈游、阿里、腾讯、小红书、高瓴、IDG、红杉、经纬、明势、云启等 ...