为避免联邦政府停摆，在9月29日晚间，特朗普在白宫会见国会两党领袖，讨论临时拨款法案。这次会谈被视为在10月1日凌晨美国联邦政府停摆大限到来 之前，两党弥合分歧、达成预算共识的最后机会。但会后双方的表态表明民主与共和两党并未谈拢，美国联邦政府再次停摆或已在所难免。 在29日晚间的会谈结束后，美国副总统、共和党人万斯直截了当地表示："我认为我们正走向停摆"。万斯还透露了双方的一大分歧点，也就是医保政策。 万斯表示，"美国的医疗保健政策已经崩溃"，共和党在过去执政的8个月中不断尝试解决这一问题。 距离美国联邦政府资金彻底耗尽已不足24小时。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，一旦美联邦政府"关门"，可能导致大量联邦雇员被裁。他还表示，若不满意军方将领，将"当 场解职"。 对于低收入家庭，打击会更快到来。数百万孕妇和儿童的食品券将受影响，住房援助和能源补贴也会因资金断档而延迟，联邦政府对学前教育和学校午餐 的支持可能被迫由地方政府垫付，州县财政压力骤增。 此外，交通、旅行、医疗、公共卫生等都将受到影响。人手短缺不仅会导致航班延误、排队频繁，并且新航线审批、飞行员培训和执照发放也会停止；此 外， ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国众议院议长约翰逊表示，对避免政府停摆持"怀疑态度"。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government is facing a shutdown crisis as funding is set to run out at midnight on September 30 [2] - President Trump indicated that a government shutdown could lead to significant layoffs of federal employees [1] - After a meeting with congressional leaders, it was reported that there are substantial disagreements between the two parties, with little progress in negotiations to prevent the shutdown [2]

Core Points - Stock futures are lower due to concerns over a potential government shutdown, with Dow futures down 40 points or 0.1% [1] - The S&P 500 futures also fell by 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures remained flat [1] - A government shutdown could delay the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly jobs report, impacting market sentiment and investor uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2]

Core Points - The U.S. stock index futures are collectively down due to ongoing risks of a government shutdown, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.3%, and Dow futures down 0.2% [1][3] - Gold prices have reached a new historical high, rising nearly 1% to $3868.8 per ounce, reflecting market concerns over the potential government shutdown and global trade tensions [1][12] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Bilibili up approximately 5%, Xpeng Motors up about 2%, and Alibaba up around 1% [1][3] - BHP's U.S. stock fell nearly 7% in after-hours trading [1][6] Market Performance - Asian stock markets showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.2%, the Seoul Composite down 0.2%, and the Vietnam VN Index down 1%, while the Singapore Strait Index and Malaysia Index both rose 0.4% [1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.15% to 97.79 [3] - Brent crude oil fell by 0.5% to $66.73 per barrel [11] Economic Implications - If the government shuts down, the release of economic data will cease, impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to set interest rate paths [2]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government is facing a potential shutdown if bipartisan agreement on funding is not reached by midnight on September 30 [2][4] - The current political standoff is primarily centered around the Affordable Care Act, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse [4][5] - This shutdown could be different from previous ones due to the White House's directive for federal agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs, potentially leading to permanent job losses [3][7] Group 1: Government Shutdown Context - A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass budget appropriations, leading to the cessation of non-essential services [3] - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced over 20 shutdowns since the 1970s, with the longest one occurring during Trump's first term, lasting 35 days [6][10] - The current political landscape, with the Republican party controlling Congress and the White House, complicates the passage of spending bills due to the need for Democratic support [4][5] Group 2: Implications of the Shutdown - If a shutdown occurs, hundreds of thousands of federal employees may face unpaid leave or be required to work without pay, impacting consumer spending and market confidence [9][11] - Essential services like Social Security and Medicare will continue, but other services may be delayed or interrupted, affecting various sectors [9][12] - The potential for long-term economic impacts exists, as prolonged shutdowns could disrupt market order and erode public trust [10][12] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Trump's administration may leverage the shutdown to expand executive power, potentially undermining congressional authority over fiscal matters [8] - The ongoing negotiations reflect significant divisions between the parties, with Democrats seeking immediate discussions on healthcare while Republicans push for a simple funding extension [4][5] - The outcome of this standoff could set a precedent for future budget negotiations and the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches [8]

Core Viewpoint - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. is expected to be unprecedented, with more significant unpredictability and potential damage compared to previous shutdowns [1] Group 1: Historical Context - Since 1976, the U.S. federal government has experienced 21 shutdowns, with most employees receiving back pay afterward [3] - The longest shutdown lasted 35 days, affecting approximately 800,000 federal employees, with 40% on unpaid leave and 60% required to work without pay [3] Group 2: Legislative Framework - The Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019 ensures that all employees, regardless of their position, receive full back pay after a shutdown [5] - This act has not been previously challenged, providing a safety net for federal employees [5] Group 3: Current Developments - Trump's threat of "permanent layoffs" targets non-essential employees, leading to legal challenges regarding the compliance of the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) layoff directives [6][8] - Approximately 25,000 probationary employees are currently affected, with the legality of their potential layoffs becoming a focal point of litigation [8] Group 4: Operational Impact - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are essential services, but past shutdowns have shown significant operational disruptions, such as a 10% absentee rate among TSA agents during the 2019 shutdown [9] - If 44,000 TSA employees face unpaid work again, there is a risk of airport shutdowns across the U.S. [10] Group 5: Economic Consequences - The shutdown could delay critical economic reports, including the September employment report and mid-month inflation data, affecting data quality for several months [12][14] - The 2019 shutdown lowered GDP by 0.2%, resulting in a loss of $11 billion, and a similar impact is anticipated if the current shutdown persists [14] Group 6: Broader Implications - The Federal Reserve's independence may be compromised due to recent political tensions, raising concerns about potential administrative interference in monetary policy [15] - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, reliant on Federal Reserve funding, may face operational paralysis during the shutdown [17] - The ongoing political standoff has led to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by both S&P and Fitch, reflecting the severity of the situation [17]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/9/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 780.50 | -3.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 447,365 | -26627↓ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 21 | -0.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -15349 | -2809↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 0.00 | -700.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 103.7 | +0.68↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 845 | -1↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 832 | -2↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 766 | -5↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 51 | ...

Core Points - The U.S. stock index futures are collectively down due to ongoing risks of a government shutdown, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.3%, and Dow futures down 0.2% [1][3] - The dollar is under pressure, and gold prices have reached a new historical high, reflecting market concerns over the potential government shutdown and global trade tensions [1][7] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Bilibili up approximately 5%, Xpeng Motors up about 2%, and Alibaba up about 1% [1][3] - BHP's U.S. stock fell nearly 7% in after-hours trading [4] Market Performance - Asian stock markets showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.2%, the Seoul Composite down 0.2%, and the Vietnam VN Index down 1%, while the Singapore Strait Index and Malaysia Index both rose 0.4% [1] - The dollar index decreased by 0.15% to 97.79 [3][4] - Spot gold increased nearly 1% to $3868.8 per ounce, marking a 47% rise this year, potentially the largest annual increase since 1979 [7] - Brent crude oil fell by 0.5% to $66.73 per barrel [10]

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, reported a holding of 15,521.35 tons of silver as of September 29, an increase of 159.51 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On September 29, the spot silver price closed at $46.89 per ounce, up 1.85%, with an intraday high of $47.17 and a low of $45.92 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. federal government is facing a shutdown crisis as funding is set to run out at midnight on September 30 [3] - Following a meeting with President Trump, congressional leaders expressed significant divisions and minimal progress in negotiations to prevent the government shutdown [4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that if funding is interrupted, it will halt all data collection, affecting the release of key reports such as the non-farm payroll report and consumer price index (CPI) [4]