十五五规划
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大变局、新蓝海:九方智投首席策略荟解码“十五五”投资新坐标
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 13:51
Core Insights - The event held by Jiufang Zhituo focused on investment opportunities and challenges in the context of China's economic landscape as it transitions into the 14th Five-Year Plan's conclusion and the 15th Five-Year Plan's initiation [1][2] Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of 4% to 5% in 2026, supported by fiscal policies and technological advancements [1][4] - The global economy is projected to continue its stable recovery, with the U.S. economy growing around 3% and Europe experiencing moderate recovery [4] Policy and Market Dynamics - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes stabilizing economic growth, enhancing consumption rates above 50%, and driving industrial upgrades through technological innovation [4][6] - The capital market is shifting from a "financing main channel" to a "capital allocation hub," focusing on innovation and balanced investment [11] Investment Opportunities - High-end manufacturing, technology consumption, and artificial intelligence are identified as key sectors for structural investment opportunities [1][4] - The A-share market is expected to see a growth range of 10% to 20% in 2026, with a focus on technology, resources, and consumer sectors [10][12] Sector-Specific Insights - The AI sector is anticipated to shift from upstream computing power to downstream applications, with significant investment opportunities in mobile technology and AI healthcare applications [14][19] - The precious metals market is expected to remain strong, with gold and silver benefiting from ongoing demand and market dynamics [15][21] Technological Advancements - The fourth technological revolution, characterized by AI, green energy, and quantum information, positions China to potentially lead in new technological arenas during the 15th Five-Year Plan [7][19] - The nuclear fusion sector is highlighted as a strategic focus, with significant investment opportunities in companies involved in core equipment and large scientific projects [21]
大变局、新蓝海:九方智投首席策略荟解码“十五五”投资新坐标
第一财经· 2025-12-31 13:06
在 2025年收官之际,九方智投首席策略荟于12月31日在上海成功举行。本次活动以"遇见十五五解码政策新坐 标,抢占投资新蓝海"为主题,通过主题演讲和圆桌对话的形式,从宏观策略、行业等多个维度来解码投资机遇。 九方智投总经理、九方金融研究所所长程伟在致辞中表示, 2025年中国经济在压力之下彰显韧性,随着"十四 五"规划圆满收官与资本市场改革深化,为新质生产力发展提供了坚实土壤。展望2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之 年,市场将面临确定性机遇与不确定性挑战交织的复杂图景,预计进入深度分化、结构性机会主导的新阶段。 会上,九方智投首席经济学家、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所全球宏观经济研究室主任肖立晟分析称, 2026年中国经济有望在财政发力与科技突破中稳步前行。展望"十五五"期间中国经济与资本市场走势,他认为, 2026年全球经济将延续稳定复苏态势,中国经济在财政主导的政策支持下有望保持4%~5%增长,资本市场或现先 扬后抑格局,结构性机会集中于高端制造、科技消费与人工智能领域。 宏观研判" 十五五"新篇, 科技创新成破局关键 具体看来,会议以 "宏观研判"环节开篇,复旦大学美国研究中心教授、博士生导师韦 ...
2026年度策略:破晓,军工逐步进入复苏期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-12-31 12:30
Group 1: Core Insights - The report predicts that the defense industry will gradually enter a recovery phase in 2026, driven by increased military spending and the release of backlog orders from the previous five-year plan [2][19][20] - The military expenditure is expected to rise significantly, with a notable increase in defense budgets across various countries, indicating a positive trend for the global military market [23][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of military trade, particularly in light of recent geopolitical events that have opened up long-term growth opportunities for the industry [15][46] Group 2: Focus Areas - Key areas of focus include main battle equipment such as missiles, unmanned systems, and new production models, as well as military trade which is anticipated to reshape the global market [3][25] - In the realm of new combat capabilities, attention is directed towards military AI, aerospace satellites, and deep-sea technology, which are expected to drive innovation and growth [4][25] - The report highlights the significance of military-civilian integration, particularly in sectors like nuclear fusion and large aircraft manufacturing, which present substantial market opportunities [5][26] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that are well-positioned in the market, have strong pricing power, and are likely to benefit from military trade and new equipment production [6][38] - Specific companies to watch include those involved in missile production, unmanned systems, and new equipment, which are expected to experience significant growth in the coming years [27][29] - The report suggests that the military trade sector is poised for a transformation, with increased global military spending driving demand for military equipment and services [41][46]
人民日报社论:满怀信心 砥砺奋进 开创新局 ——元旦献词
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-31 12:25
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of confidence and determination in advancing China's modernization and economic development, highlighting achievements in 2025 and setting a positive outlook for the future [2][3][4]. Economic Performance - In 2025, China's economic total is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan, with significant grain production and notable technological innovations [2]. - The country has made substantial progress in building a modern industrial system and deepening reforms, contributing to a stable and robust economic foundation [2]. International Engagement - China has expanded its openness to the world, with record transaction amounts at the China International Import Expo, showcasing the country's market potential [2]. - The successful hosting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin reflects China's commitment to global governance and cooperation [2]. Strategic Focus - The article stresses the need to focus on domestic economic stability and international trade, while effectively managing risks in key sectors [3]. - It highlights the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and resilience in the face of challenges, emphasizing the significance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][5]. Collective Effort - The article calls for unity and practical action among the people to achieve national development goals, emphasizing the role of collective effort in overcoming obstacles [6]. - It draws parallels between historical struggles and current challenges, encouraging a spirit of perseverance and determination [6].
河南省政协2026年新年茶话会在郑州举行 刘宁讲话 王凯出席 孔昌生主持
He Nan Ri Bao· 2025-12-31 11:54
元辰启嘉瑞,岁律焕新章。12月31日,河南省政协2026年新年茶话会在郑州举行。省委书记刘宁出席并 讲话,代表省委、省政府向各民主党派、工商联和无党派人士,向全省各族人民、驻豫人民解放军指战 员、武警部队官兵,向所有关心支持河南发展的各界朋友、港澳台同胞、海外侨胞和国际友人,致以诚 挚问候和新年祝福。省长王凯出席,省政协主席孔昌生主持。 刘宁表示,一年来,全省各级政协始终坚持党对政协工作的全面领导,围绕党建引领基层高效能治 理、"十五五"规划编制等深入开展调查研究、协商议政、民主监督,为推动经济社会发展作出了重要贡 献。希望全省各级政协贯彻落实习近平总书记关于加强和改进人民政协工作的重要思想,认真履行政治 协商、民主监督、参政议政职能,充分发挥专门协商机构的优势和作用,为实现新时代新征程目标任务 充分汇聚各方智慧和力量。 现职省级领导同志,离退休省级老同志和社会各界人士出席。(记者 刘婵 李点 张笑闻) 孔昌生代表省政协向各界人士致以节日祝福。他指出,要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为 指导,在中共河南省委坚强领导下,持续加强专门协商机构建设,围绕中心、服务大局,紧扣推 进"1+2+4+N"目标任务体 ...
早谋划早部署早启动早落实 切实抓紧抓好“十五五”开局
Jie Fang Ri Bao· 2025-12-31 10:23
龚正指出,明年是"十五五"开局之年,各区、各部门要早谋划、早部署、早启动、早落实,切实抓紧抓 好开局工作。要全力以赴抓好稳增长,进一步优化稳增长机制,强化科学调度、精准施策,推动重点区 域、重点行业、重点企业尽快行动、抓好落实,确保一季度实现"开门红",为全年稳增长奠定扎实基 础。 龚正指出,要坚决守牢城市安全底线,切实绷紧安全这根弦,以"时时放心不下"的责任感,深入开展安 全隐患排查整治,强化节日期间应急值守和应急准备,确保不发生重特大安全事故,保障城市安全有序 运行。要确保市场供应平稳有序,主副食品供应充足、价格稳定,水电气等正常供应、服务便捷。要扩 大优质商品和服务供给,结合节日消费特点和群众需求,创新多元消费场景,营造浓厚节日氛围,激发 假期消费潜力。 龚正指出,要有效保障困难群众基本生活,做好帮困送温暖,确保广覆盖、不遗漏。特别是要聚焦困难 老人、困难残疾人、因病致贫家庭等特殊群体,多做雪中送炭的事。要做好重点行业企业工资支付情况 督促检查,着力化解矛盾纠纷。同时,各委办局要主动服务和参加好市"两会"。龚正强调,越是年节期 间,越是不能放松纪律这根弦。要巩固深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育成果,严守 ...
2026年1月份投资策略报告:春季行情或逐步开启-20251231
Dongguan Securities· 2025-12-31 09:31
Market Overview - In December 2025, the A-share market exhibited a "high-level fluctuation and structural switching" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.17%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.93% [8][13][45] - The market sentiment improved significantly towards the end of December, with the Shanghai Index achieving eleven consecutive gains, driven by easing concerns over AI bubbles and favorable policy expectations for 2026 [8][45] Economic Environment Analysis - Global economic indicators showed signs of stabilization but with a slowdown, as evidenced by the marginal decline in the US and Eurozone PMI indices [19][39] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December marked the third reduction of the year, with expectations for a slower pace of future cuts in 2026 due to internal divisions within the FOMC [20][44] - Domestic economic indicators reflected weak internal growth momentum, with November's industrial value-added growth at 4.8% and fixed asset investment declining by 2.6% year-on-year [21][25] Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at enhancing growth and addressing risks [29][33] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply was reiterated, with a commitment to maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% to support economic stability and transformation [31][32] Sector Allocation - Recommendations for sector allocation in January include overweighting mechanical equipment, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and non-ferrous metals [46] - The mechanical equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased demand in robotics and infrastructure projects, while the TMT sector may see growth driven by rising raw material prices and technological advancements [46][48]
习近平:学习好贯彻好党的二十届四中全会精神
清华金融评论· 2025-12-31 09:06
学习好贯彻好党的二十届四中全会精神※ 习近平 这次全会,听取了中央政治局工作报告,分析了当前形势和任务,审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的 建议》,圆满完成各项议程。 全会通过的《建议》,立足于夯实基础、全面发力,对"十五五"时期事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务作出部署,是指导"十五五"时期经济社 会发展的纲领性文件。学习好贯彻好全会精神,是当前和今后一个时期全党全国的一项重大政治任务。 下面,我代表中央政治局,就贯彻落实全会精神讲几点意见。 要迅速掀起学习贯彻全会精神的热潮,通过各种方式组织好全会精神的学习、宣讲、宣传,使全党全社会领会好全会精神。 第一,深刻领会"十五五"时期经济社会发展的重大意义。按照经济社会发展规律确定奋斗目标,一以贯之锚定目标团结奋进,是我们党的一 个鲜明特点和独特优势。实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程,需要不懈努力、接续奋斗。在基本实现社会主 义现代化进程中,"十五五"时期具有承前启后的重要地位。全党要认识到,抓好"十五五"时期经济社会发展,对于实现党的二十大描绘的宏伟 蓝图、分阶段有步骤推进中国式现代化,有效应对复杂严峻的外部 ...
2025年A股收官!沪指11连阳全年涨超18% “科技牛”行情贯穿全年
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 07:43
新华财经北京12月31日电(胡晨曦) 2025年最后一个交易日,A股三大指数涨跌不一,沪指全天震荡微 涨0.09%,录得11连阳;创业板指则震荡下挫。截至今日收盘,沪指报3968.84点,涨幅0.09%,成交额 约8295亿元;深成指报13525.02点,跌幅0.58%,成交额约12157亿元;创业板指报3203.17点,跌幅 1.23%,成交额约5491亿元。 从今日的盘面上看,航天航空、航空机场、教育、互联网服务、计算机设备、文化传媒板块涨幅居前, 医药商业、船舶制造、电池、石油行业、半导体板块跌幅居前。 纵观2025全年,沪指于10月28日一举突破4000点大关,创下近十年新高,全年收涨18.41%;深证成指 全年收涨29.87%;创业板指全年大涨49.57%;科创50指数全年涨35.92%,北证50指数全年涨38.8%。A 股总市值跃升至近109万亿元,年内新增近23万亿元,一举刷新历史纪录。个股同样表现亮眼,胜宏科 技、新易盛、中际旭创等多只科技龙头全年涨幅超过3倍。板块方面,CPO、存储芯片、商业航天、有 色金属等方向领涨。 机构观点 巨丰投顾:周三市场震荡运行,卫星互联网板块涨幅居前。从目前趋势 ...
从决胜到开局
Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-31 07:14
Group 1 - The year 2025 is significant as it marks both the decisive year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the planning year for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference focuses on the current economic situation and outlines strategies for expanding domestic demand, supporting the private economy, advancing artificial intelligence, promoting institutional openness, facilitating green transformation, ensuring coordinated development, and enhancing urban-rural integration [1] - These strategies are crucial not only for the long-term strategic layout of the country but also closely related to the daily lives and happiness of the citizens [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the implications of the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions, particularly in the context of consumption upgrades and the integration of quality goods and services into everyday life [2] - It highlights opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises in the AI era and addresses challenges related to home-based elderly care [2] - The publication aims to provide valuable development references for the new journey of the "15th Five-Year Plan" by interviewing experts, scholars, and business representatives [2]