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宏观纵览 | 中央定调明年经济工作:宏观政策更加积极有为
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 09:44
Economic Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for 2026 to ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - The focus has shifted from "stability while seeking progress" to "stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency," indicating a stronger emphasis on the quality and effectiveness of long-term growth [2][4] Economic Performance and Challenges - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, with a probability of meeting the annual target of around 5.0%, but the growth rate fell to 4.8% in the third quarter, highlighting weakening growth momentum and structural issues [4] - Key economic challenges include limited consumer spending power, insufficient innovation capacity, and pressures on the real economy from rising costs and financing constraints [4][6] Policy Implementation - The meeting calls for a combination of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth, with an emphasis on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [5][6] - Experts suggest maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% to signal continued fiscal expansion and stabilize social expectations [6] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The monetary policy will focus on structural tools, with recent adjustments including rate cuts and the introduction of new monetary policy frameworks [8][9] - The emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" indicates a shift towards addressing medium- to long-term structural issues rather than solely relying on traditional counter-cyclical measures [9] Domestic Demand and Risk Management - The meeting stresses the importance of domestic demand in driving economic growth and the need for innovative and high-quality development [11] - There is a focus on addressing key risks in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, with proposals for systemic policy measures to stabilize the housing market [14]
最近,越来越多地区忙着“先投后股”
母基金研究中心· 2025-12-09 09:02
最近,越来越多地区开始探索这项招商引资的新工具 ——"先投后股"。 我们关注到, "先投后股"作为财政资金创新支持方式的代表性举措,正成为各地推动科技成 果转化的重要手段与招商引资的新工具 。 "先投后股"是一种通过调整财政资金支持方式、分阶段持续助力科技成果转化与初创型科技企 业成长的创新机制。从支持对象看,该模式聚焦"有技术、缺资金"的初创企业,推动其将科研 成果转化为现实生产力;从支持阶段看,分为"先投"和"后股"两个环节。 在 "先投"阶段,财政资金以科技项目资助形式支持企业进行研发及成果转化,并预先约定未来 转股条件和比例;进入"后股"阶段后,若企业实现市场化融资或发展趋于稳定,财政资金按照 既定机制转为股权,并在企业进一步成长后,依据"适当收益"原则有序退出,实现财政资金的 回笼与再利用。 从支持方式看, "先投后股"既区别于传统无偿补贴,提升了财政资金的使用效率,又强化了管 理机构对企业全生命周期的跟踪与赋能,构建了财政资金可持续"循环使用"的长效机制;与政 府引导基金、种子基金、天使基金等早期股权投资工具相比,"先投后股"更像是一种"科技期 权"式支持工具。它不将年度经营业绩作为试点企业的刚性 ...
重提跨周期——政治局会议通稿要点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 05:24
Core Viewpoint - The overall macro policy framework is expected to remain stable, with a focus on the rhythm and direction of economic work for the upcoming year [2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Politburo meeting emphasizes the need to better coordinate domestic economic work and international trade struggles, indicating that domestic economic stability will be prioritized during intensified international trade conflicts [2]. - The meeting introduces the concept of developing new productive forces tailored to local conditions and advancing the construction of a unified national market, highlighting the importance of optimizing local government behavior and addressing market competition [2]. - The goal for economic growth is likely to remain around 5%, necessitating the use of existing policies and the introduction of new policies, with a recent announcement of 500 billion yuan in new financial tools aimed at project investment to kickstart economic activity [2][3]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterates the implementation of a more proactive macro policy, continuing with an active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, while suggesting a slight increase in fiscal policy space [3]. - The emphasis on cross-cycle regulation and the integration of existing and new policies indicates that the policy rhythm will be crucial to monitor, with a focus on utilizing existing policy space unless external conditions change [3]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand is prioritized as the primary focus of economic work, with a strong emphasis on improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, aligning with the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session [3]. - The meeting highlights the construction of a strong domestic market as a foundation for responding to complex external environments, requiring macro policies to invest more in improving livelihoods and enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [3]. Group 4: Key Work Priorities - The meeting outlines eight key priorities for the upcoming year, maintaining the same order for the top four: domestic demand, technology/industry, reform, and openness, while risk prevention has dropped to the eighth position, indicating a reduction in systemic risk challenges [4]. - The real estate sector, which previously faced significant risks, is notably absent from the meeting's discussions, reflecting a structural adjustment that has reduced its contribution to GDP from 17.7% in 2017 to an estimated 9.0% by next year [4].
从“营商”到“赢商”,河南正厚植沃土
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 03:32
图① 中豫具身智能实验室机器人。本报记者 王铮 摄 从全省实有民营经济主体超过1100万户,到在A股上市的豫企中民营企业占比超64%,再到今年1—10月全省 民间投资增长7.3%……推动高质量发展的快车道上,我省民营经济正展现出蓬勃的生机活力。 而这背后是河南将"营商"环境持续优化为"赢商"沃土的必然结果。 法治护航 让营商环境更有确定性 图② 第十八届中国—拉美企业家高峰会全方位展示了中拉合作的深度与广度。 本报记者 王铮 摄 郑州机场"多式联运",做大做强货运航线"空中丝路",融入服务全国统一大市场建设。 本报记者 聂冬晗 摄 本报财经全媒体中心 出品 图③ 我省高规格开展经贸交流活动,多维度彰显中原地区扩大开放、融通全球的蓬勃活力。本报记者 王铮 摄 □本报记者 石可欣 胡舒彤 陈小平 市场经济犹如"候鸟经济",哪里的营商环境优、服务质量好、办事效率高、投资成本低,企业就会到哪里聚 集,资金就会往哪里涌动。 河南对营商环境建设始终常抓不懈。前不久闭幕的省委十一届十次全会还将营造"便利高效的营商环境"列为 推动高效能治理、营造"六个环境"的重要内容之一,足见我省对营商环境建设的重视程度。 "通过!" 12 ...
债市早报:中共中央政治局召开会议分析研究2026年经济工作;资金面稳定均衡,主要期限国债收益率窄幅震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 02:55
Group 1: Domestic Market Updates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a small-scale net injection of funds, with the overall liquidity remaining stable, and the main repo rates slightly increased [1][8] - Wanda Commercial Management is seeking a two-year extension on its $400 million bond [1] - Country Garden's overseas debt restructuring plan has been officially recognized by the court [1] - New World Development has completed the final settlement of its exchange offer, resulting in the cancellation of $2.5 billion of existing bonds [1] Group 2: Economic Policy and Trade - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and a proactive macro policy [2] - China's goods trade import and export value for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports by 0.2% [3] Group 3: International Market Updates - Japan's GDP for the third quarter shrank by 2.3%, exceeding initial estimates, marking the first contraction in six quarters [5] - Major European economies saw a rise in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield increasing by 7 basis points to 2.87% [21] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on the 10-year Chinese government bond rose by 0.40 basis points to 1.8325% [11] - In the secondary market, several bonds experienced significant price deviations, with some bonds from Vanke showing increases of over 20% [14] - The convertible bond market saw a collective rise, with the total trading volume reaching 652.92 billion yuan, an increase of 51.39 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17]
习近平主持召开中共中央政治局会议 分析研究2026年经济工作审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-09 01:48
会议强调,做好明年经济工作,要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,深入贯彻党的二十大 和二十届历次全会精神,完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念,加快构建新发展格局,着力推动高质量发展, 坚持稳中求进工作总基调,更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争,更好统筹发展和安全,实施更加积 极有为的宏观政策,增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性,持续扩大内需、优化供给,做优增量、盘活存量, 因地制宜发展新质生产力,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,持续防范化解重点领域风险,着力稳就业、 稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长,保持社会和谐稳定,实现"十 五五"良好开局。 会议指出,明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。要坚持内需主导,建设强大国内市场;坚持创新驱动,加紧培育壮大新动能;坚持改革攻坚,增强 高质量发展动力活力;坚持对外开放,推动多领域合作共赢;坚持协调发展,促进城乡融合和区域联 动;坚持"双碳"引领,推动全面绿色转型;坚持民生为大,努力为人民群众多办实事;坚持守牢底线 ...
新华指数・博鳌发布|担当时代使命 共创未来新篇——展望“十五五”新机遇
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 01:17
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of indices as tools for understanding trends and unlocking opportunities in the context of China's economic development and modernization efforts [2][3]. Economic Growth and Development - China's manufacturing investment continues to grow, contributing to the establishment of a modern industrial system, with equipment manufacturing playing a crucial role [2][3]. - The "China Innovation Index" shows consistent improvement, reflecting the country's commitment to high-quality development [2][3]. Emerging Industries and Green Economy - The green economy is increasingly prominent, with one-third of electricity in China now sourced from renewable energy, supporting emerging industries like artificial intelligence [5]. - Inner Mongolia's modern energy economy development index is projected to grow by 24.21% year-on-year in 2024, while the new energy high-quality development index is expected to rise by 11.37% [5]. New Consumption Trends - The report identifies five key opportunity sectors focused on human-centered economic trends: cultural consumption, health consumption, silver economy, beauty economy, and pet economy [6][9]. - The cultural industry, particularly digital culture, is projected to contribute nearly 5% to GDP by 2024, highlighting its role as a significant economic growth engine [8]. Silver Economy and Health Consumption - The silver economy is expanding rapidly, with an annual growth rate of 15.27% since 2022, driven by the aging population and new business models [9]. - Health consumption trends are transforming traditional products into popular items, with innovations in functional foods and traditional remedies gaining traction [9]. Market Dynamics and Data Utilization - The establishment of a unified national market is crucial for high-quality development, with data elements playing a key role in addressing existing market inefficiencies [11]. - Price indices are acting as vital indicators for market operations, helping to stabilize and guide various agricultural sectors [13]. Cultural and Brand Development - Indices serve as digital representations of regional brand value, linking cultural heritage with modern economic opportunities [16]. - Cities are leveraging unique cultural identities to enhance their market competitiveness and global presence, exemplified by initiatives in places like Yan'an and Shaanxi [16][17].
新华鲜报|活力足!税收大数据里的中国经济亮点
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-09 00:51
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience and vitality of China's economic development as reflected in the tax revenue data released by the State Taxation Administration [1] Group 2 - The effects of policies are becoming evident, with the economy showing stability and improvement [2] - A series of incremental and stock policies have been implemented this year, leading to a 10.7% year-on-year increase in the amount spent by enterprises on machinery and equipment purchases [3] - Consumer promotion policies are yielding results, with sales revenue in the telecommunications and home appliance retail sectors increasing by 20.3% and 26.5% year-on-year, respectively [3] Group 3 - The resilience of enterprise exports is notable, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in export tax refunds processed by tax authorities [4] - In the first 11 months, tax revenue exceeded 29 trillion yuan, with tax income surpassing 16 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.1% year-on-year growth [4] Group 4 - Support for technological innovation remains a key focus of tax and fee reduction policies, with 23.725 billion yuan in tax reductions and refunds for innovation and manufacturing in the first 10 months [5] - High-tech industry sales revenue grew by 14.7% year-on-year, while digital technology procurement by enterprises increased by 10.2% [5] Group 5 - The energy structure is undergoing continuous optimization, with sales revenue in clean energy sectors like wind, solar, and hydropower increasing by 14.9% year-on-year, now accounting for 38% of total electricity sales [6] - Wind power and solar power sales revenue grew by 16.8% and 35.7% year-on-year, respectively, while thermal power sales revenue decreased by 7.2% [6] Group 6 - The construction of a unified national market is accelerating, with tax authorities playing a significant role [7] - There has been a nearly fourfold increase in cross-regional tax-related business handled by tax authorities this year [8] - Inter-provincial trade sales accounted for 41.1% of national sales revenue, with over 50% of tax-related business entities involved in cross-province sales, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase from the previous year [8][9]
从“营商”到“赢商”,河南正厚植沃土丨经探号
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 00:33
河南日报社记者 石可欣 胡舒彤 陈小平 市场经济犹如"候鸟经济",哪里的营商环境优、服务质量好、办事效率高、投资成本低,企业就会到哪里聚集,资金就会往哪里涌动。 河南对营商环境建设始终常抓不懈。前不久闭幕的省委十一届十次全会还将营造"便利高效的营商环境"列为推动高效能治理、营造"六个环境"的重要内容 之一,足见我省对营商环境建设的重视程度。 从全省实有民营经济主体超过1100万户,到在A股上市的豫企中民营企业占比超64%,再到今年1—10月全省民间投资增长7.3%……推动高质量发展的快 车道上,我省民营经济正展现出蓬勃的生机活力。 而这背后是河南将"营商"环境持续优化为"赢商"沃土的必然结果。 法治护航 让营商环境更有确定性 "通过!" 12月4日,省十四届人大常委会第二十一次会议表决通过了修订后的《河南省优化营商环境条例》(以下简称《条例》),将于2026年3月1日起施行。 "作为此前出台条例的升级版,新修订的《条例》聚焦加快建设市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境,以经营主体需求为导向,以政府职能转变为核 心,创新体制机制,对标先进水平,为激发市场活力,融入服务全国统一大市场,推动经济社会高质量发展提供了有 ...
法治护航 让营商环境更有确定性 从“营商”到“赢商”,河南正厚植沃土
He Nan Ri Bao· 2025-12-08 23:23
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuous improvement of the business environment in Henan Province, highlighting the recent legislative changes aimed at creating a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment to stimulate economic growth and attract investment [8][19]. Group 1: Business Environment Optimization - Henan has over 11 million private economic entities, with private enterprises accounting for over 64% of listed companies in A-shares, and private investment growth of 7.3% from January to October this year [6]. - The newly revised "Henan Province Optimizing Business Environment Regulations" will take effect on March 1, 2026, focusing on creating a first-class business environment that meets market demands and government function transformation [8][9]. - The regulations aim to eliminate barriers to market access, break local protectionism, and ensure fair competition, thereby facilitating the free flow of production factors [9][10]. Group 2: Government and Enterprise Interaction - The government is transitioning from a management role to a service-oriented approach, enhancing communication with enterprises to address their needs effectively [10][13]. - The regulations mandate that government agencies strengthen their responsibilities in business environment construction and improve service capabilities through training [10][11]. - A rapid response mechanism for enterprise issues is being established to ensure timely assistance and support for businesses [10][12]. Group 3: Legal Framework and Internationalization - The regulations emphasize the importance of law in creating a stable business environment, which is seen as essential for fostering confidence and promoting development [11][19]. - Henan is committed to expanding high-level openness, with a focus on integrating into global markets and enhancing international trade channels [16][18]. - The province's private enterprises achieved an import and export value of 508.34 billion yuan from January to October, reflecting a growth rate of 14.7%, which is 7.5 percentage points higher than the national average [18].