Core Viewpoint - The upcoming data over the next two months will be crucial for economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] Group 1 - If inflation caused by tariffs is milder than expected, or if there are signs of a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to resume easing measures in the fall [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged amid uncertainties in inflation and the labor market, while continuing to monitor economic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, unchanged after all five policy meetings this year [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 2 to maintain the rate, with two members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity growth slowed in the first half of the year, with a low unemployment rate and a solid labor market [1]. - The second quarter GDP growth rate was reported at 3%, following a contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter, leading to an estimated growth rate of approximately 1.2% for the first half of 2025 [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Trade Policy - Inflation remains elevated compared to the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, despite a decline from the 2022 peak [2]. - The impact of government policy changes, including higher tariffs, on economic activity and inflation is still uncertain, with potential short-term and long-term effects [2][3]. Group 4: Labor Market and Housing - The labor market is described as being in a balanced state, consistent with maximum employment [2]. - The housing market is experiencing a slowdown due to high mortgage rates and supply constraints, with a long-term housing shortage persisting [5][6]. Group 5: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve emphasizes the importance of maintaining its independence from political pressures, which allows for data-driven decision-making [7].

美联储主席鲍威尔：仍认为劳动力市场是我们拥有的最佳经济数据。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场数据总体显示市场稳健，但存在下行风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the inflow of labor into the market has significantly slowed down, largely due to the impact of immigration policies [1] Group 1 - The labor market's inflow rate has decreased markedly [1] - Immigration policies are a major factor contributing to this slowdown [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market has not weakened, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The statement from Powell suggests confidence in the resilience of the labor market, which may influence monetary policy decisions [1] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects market reactions to Powell's comments, indicating expectations of sustained economic strength [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场下行风险显然存在。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场存在下行风险。 ...

鲍威尔：劳动力市场面临下行风险。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场状况大致平衡。 ...