美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特：如果沃什出任美联储主席，希望他能（在利率政策问题 上）与总统特朗普对话。经济数据表明，美国CPI朝着美联储2%目标靠拢。美联储的职责是保持独立。 我们不会有10月家庭（就业）调查。 ...

[ 特朗普表示，他认为利率应该"为1%甚至可能更低"，并预计将在"未来几周内"选出下一任美联储主 席。 ] [ 据知情人士透露，美国财政部在11月开启对候选人的第二轮面试的同时，也对华尔街大行、机构高管 进行了一对一谈话征询意见。债券投资机构高管普遍担心哈塞特接任美联储主席会大幅度激进降息取悦 特朗普，进而威胁美联储独立性。 ] 美联储主席热门人选又有新进展——又有一位"凯文（Kevin）"浮出水面。 据报道，美国总统特朗普在最新采访中表示，凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）和凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）均是他心中领导美联储的人选。 特朗普预计，下一任美联储主席将在利率问题上与他协商，这将颠覆美联储独立性的传统。 特朗普表示，他认为利率应该"为1%甚至可能更低"，并预计将在"未来几周内"选出下一任美联储主 席。 此前，华尔街已经向特朗普政府表态，对哈塞特"接棒"的前景表示忧虑，威胁美联储独立性。 据知情人士透露，摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙在11日晚在纽约举行的该行资产管理首席执行官私人会议上 表示，他赞同沃什关于美联储的观点。同时他还告诉华尔街高管，哈塞特更有可能支持特朗普提出的降 息要求。 美联 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve and the redefinition of safe assets in the context of geopolitical conflicts and currency wars, highlighting the historical opportunity for the renminbi to emerge as a new "safe haven" for investors [1][26]. - The traditional view of safe assets, primarily centered around US Treasury bonds and the US dollar, is evolving due to political pressures and market dynamics, leading to a more diversified asset cluster that includes various sovereign assets, gold, and high-standard institutional arrangements [1][8]. - The article emphasizes the need for China to leverage the current global financial landscape to position the renminbi as a credible and reliable asset in international portfolios, rather than aiming to replace the US dollar's dominance [26][27]. Group 2 - The historical evolution of the Federal Reserve's independence is outlined, noting its critical role in maintaining the credibility of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, particularly after the abandonment of the gold standard [2][3]. - The political pressures during the Trump administration, including public criticism of the Federal Reserve and attempts to exert influence over its decision-making processes, have raised concerns about the central bank's independence and its implications for the dollar's status [4][5]. - Market reactions to recent economic policies, including a rare simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, signal a potential shift in investor confidence regarding US assets, indicating a structural break in traditional safe-haven correlations [6][7]. Group 3 - The article identifies a supply-demand imbalance in the current safe asset landscape, with increasing demand from emerging markets and aging developed economies, while the supply of high-quality sovereign bonds remains limited outside the US [9][10]. - Geopolitical events, such as the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, have altered perceptions of sovereign asset security, prompting central banks to diversify their reserves away from the dollar and increase holdings in gold and alternative currencies [10][11]. - The renminbi's role has been highlighted as it has shown resilience compared to other emerging market currencies during geopolitical tensions, with increased usage in trade settlements and a growing demand for renminbi-denominated assets [12][13]. Group 4 - The revival of gold as a key reserve asset is noted, with central banks significantly increasing their gold holdings in recent years, driven by concerns over geopolitical risks and the desire for a neutral asset that is not tied to any country's liabilities [14][15]. - The article discusses the systemic implications of a weakened Federal Reserve independence on the international monetary system, suggesting that if the Fed's decisions are increasingly influenced by political considerations, it could lead to a revaluation of US Treasury securities and a decline in their perceived safety [15][16]. - The potential for a multipolar international monetary system is explored, with the euro and other currencies gradually increasing their share in global reserves, reflecting a shift towards a more diversified asset allocation among central banks [18][19]. Group 5 - The article outlines strategic recommendations for China to enhance the internationalization of the renminbi, including strengthening the domestic bond market, improving liquidity mechanisms, and expanding the use of renminbi in cross-border transactions [20][21]. - Emphasizing the importance of central bank independence, the article suggests that China should highlight the People's Bank of China's commitment to professional neutrality and institutional stability to build investor confidence in renminbi assets [21][22]. - The need for a differentiated internationalization strategy is discussed, focusing on establishing the renminbi as a "anchor currency" for official reserves while enhancing its appeal as an investment currency for private sector entities [23][24].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in the U.S. and global economy, with monetary policy implementation being its key tool for economic influence [1][2] - The Federal Reserve System consists of three main entities: the Board of Governors, 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for formulating monetary policy [2][5] - The Federal Reserve's primary objectives are maximum employment and price stability, and it operates independently while being accountable to Congress [2][13] Group 2 - The FOMC is the core institution responsible for determining monetary policy, with its main mission being to achieve maximum employment and price stability [7][8] - FOMC decisions require a voting process, with 12 voting members including 7 Board Governors and the New York Fed President, while other regional Fed Presidents participate in discussions [8][11] - The decision-making process involves analyzing economic conditions, discussing policy options, and publishing economic forecasts and policy intentions after meetings [11][12] Group 3 - The current composition of the Federal Reserve Board may allow for greater influence from former President Trump, as he could potentially nominate multiple members by 2026 [14][15] - The selection of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump would require candidates to demonstrate loyalty, management capability, and market trust [16][17] - The potential for changes in regional Federal Reserve Bank leadership could also be influenced by Trump's administration, particularly with upcoming expirations of terms [15]

美国总统特朗普正在对美联储主席候选人进行最后一轮面试，前美联储理事凯文·沃什突然成为热门人选，而现任主席鲍威尔在最近一次降息后，再次遭到 总统的公开批评。 白宫内，特朗普和他的团队正在对最终入围的美联储主席候选人进行最后一轮面试。这场面试的背景是，美联储刚刚宣布今年第三次降息，将联邦基金利率 目标区间下调至3.50%至3.75%之间。 这些候选人包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、米歇尔·鲍曼以及贝莱德固定收益主管里克·里德。 以下是主要候选人的背景与特点： 凯文·哈塞特 而特朗普对这一降息幅度仍不满意，公开表示"降息幅度太小，本可以更大"。就在几周前，特朗普还在社交媒体上发文表示，通胀率较低，美联储应该降息 3个百分点。 01 最终角逐 特朗普对美联储主席人选的遴选已进入最后阶段。政府高官透露，总统和财政部长斯科特·贝森特已排定日程，会见了前美联储理事凯文·沃什。 凯文·哈塞特目前仍被视为最有希望的候选人。他已在特朗普麾下工作近十年，是特朗普政府中任职时间最长的经济顾问之一。 尽管如此，白宫继续推进额外的面试表明，哈塞特的提名尚未板上钉钉。有官员甚至提出，哈塞特可能只担任缩短任期的主席。 02 候选人阵营 贝森 ...

当地时间12月12日，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储前理事凯文·沃什和白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特 是下一任美联储主席职位的主要人选。 特朗普还预计，下一任美联储主席将在利率问题上征求他的意见。有外媒指出，这将意味着美联储长期以来的 独立性传统将被颠覆。 当被问及希望一年后的利率水平时，特朗普12日表示，应该在1%或更低水平。本周三，美联储宣布降息25个 基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%—3.75%。 美联储主席热门人选：沃什、哈西特 特朗普当地时间12月12日表示，凯文·沃什和凯文·哈西特是下一任美联储主席的主要人选，并预计下一任美联 储主席将在利率问题上征求他的意见。 特朗普周五接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示，美联储前理事沃什已成为挑战哈西特的最有力竞争者之一。特朗 普称，沃什位列他心目中的名单前列。特朗普同时称，"沃什和哈西特两人都不错。当然还有其他几位候选人 也很优秀。" 最近几周，特朗普多次暗示已选定美联储主席人选，哈西特被愈发视为头号热门。但特朗普的最新表态显示， 沃什仍稳居竞争行列。 沃什目前是斯坦福大学访问学者，他于2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事。特朗普2017年曾就美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, believing he would be a "great chairman" and warning against Kevin Hassett's potential influence from the White House, which could undermine the Fed's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Dimon's Analysis - Dimon warns that if Hassett is appointed, he may quickly lower short-term interest rates to align with Trump's economic demands, but the Fed can only control short-term rates while long-term rates are determined by the market [2]. - Concerns arise that aggressive rate cuts under Hassett could ignite inflation expectations, leading to a rise in long-term rates, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, due to investor sell-offs [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Since reports of Hassett's candidacy emerged, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, indicating market pricing for the associated risks [3]. - There is growing anxiety among bond market traders regarding inflation, as the 5-year forward inflation swap rate has recently risen by 0.06 percentage points, reaching a one-month high [3]. Group 3: Investor Concerns - Senior investors managing a $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market have expressed concerns to Treasury officials about Hassett's political ties to Trump, questioning the potential impact on the credibility of monetary policy [5]. Group 4: Selection Process - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jay Powell's policies and has indicated that loyalty and willingness to cut rates are key criteria for his selection of a new chair [7]. - The selection process, led by incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen, continues, with Trump expected to interview more candidates soon [9].

美联储主席的宝座之争，终于有了新动向！ 特朗普12日接受《华尔街日报》专访时直接点名，美联储主席鲍威尔的接班人，大概率从"两个凯文"里选——一个是白宫国家经济委员会主席凯文·哈 西特，另一个是前美联储理事凯文·沃什。 明眼人都能看出，他要的不是一个"独立"的央行掌门，而是能紧跟自己步调的"降息急先锋"。 这两位"凯文"能被点名，早有铺垫。 本月2日的白宫会议上，特朗普介绍哈西特时就埋下伏笔："我们这里有一位未来的美联储主席"，当时就把哈西特推上了热门人选的宝座。 而沃什也不是新人，2017年特朗普第一次选美联储主席时，就曾面试过他，如今算是"二次入围"。 反观现任主席鲍威尔，日子早就不好过了。 特朗普多次公开炮轰他"行动太慢"，吐槽美联储降息幅度跟不上节奏。就在10日美联储刚宣布降息25个基点，特朗普就嫌不够，直言"本该至少降一 倍"。 当记者追问"沃什是不是领跑者"时，特朗普毫不含糊："我认为是的。两位凯文都很优秀。" 就在两天前的10日，特朗普已经悄悄会见了沃什，当面传递了核心要求——必须进一步降息。 事实上，特朗普对降息的执念早已不是秘密。 他这次更直接放话，下一任美联储主席制定利率政策时，"必须跟我多 ...

12月13日，欢迎来到股市早观点，我们来看看今天有哪些消息热点？ 美国总统特朗普最新表示：倾向于让沃什或哈塞特担任美联储主席，下一任美联储主席应就利率问题与 他进行沟通。 特朗普一直隔空喊话美联储应降息以降低政府借款成本，但美联储官员并不买账，甚至公开回怼。美联 储古尔斯比周五表示，央行在制定利率政策时不应考虑政府融资成本，并称这是美联储独立性至关重要 的关键原因。 "令我痛心的是，为什么一群政府之外、行政部门之外的人要来决定利率？"古尔斯比在芝加哥联储经济 研讨会上表示，"甚至有人提出，美联储应该降息，以降低政府举债成本。这实际上是将债务货币化。 这正是我们希望美联储保持独立的根本原因。"另外，周五多位美联储官员发声，给降息前景泼冷水。 关注我，更多股市资讯告诉你！ ...

美联储主席热门人选又有新进展——又有一位"凯文（Kevin）"浮出水面。 据报道，美国总统特朗普在最新采访中表示，凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)和凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)均是 他心中领导美联储的人选。 特朗普预计，下一任美联储主席将在利率问题上与他协商，这将颠覆美联储独立性的传统。 特朗普表示，他认为利率应该"为1%甚至可能更低"，并预计将在"未来几周内"选出下一任美联储主 席。 此前，华尔街已经向特朗普政府表态，对哈塞特"接棒"的前景表示忧虑，威胁美联储独立性。 据知情人士透露，摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙在11日晚在纽约举行的该行资产管理首席执行官私人会议上 表示，他赞同沃什关于美联储的观点。同时他还告诉华尔街高管，哈塞特更有可能支持特朗普提出的降 息要求。 美联储前高级经济学家、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷在近期接受第一财经记者采访时表 示：第一，美联储的基本运作规则与文化应会延续；第二，美联储主席在多大程度上听取总统意见，始 终存在一定弹性空间。"也就是说，若哈塞特上任，他可能会更认同特朗普的观点，但美联储决策仍遵 循数据导向的基本原则，不可能完全脱离这一框架，否则将沦为笑话 ...