Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is prepared to continue raising interest rates if the Japanese economy accelerates and core inflation steadily approaches the 2% target [1] - BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated that the central bank will not preset policy paths but will make decisions based on actual data performance, reflecting a "data-dependent" policy approach [1] - Recent GDP data for Q1 2025 showed a 1.8% annualized decline, indicating weak external demand affecting recovery, yet the BOJ maintains a view that rising wages and prices will support gradual policy normalization [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen below key technical levels, with the conversion line at 145.55 and the base line at 144.26, indicating bearish sentiment [2] - There are significant options expirations at various levels, including 144.35-50, 145.00, and 145.50-55, which may influence market movements [2] - The USD/JPY is forming a bullish hammer pattern above 145, but is facing resistance from the cloud chart above [3] Group 3 - Resistance levels for USD/JPY are identified at 146.45 (cloud bottom), 147.67 (high on May 15), and 148.17 (Bollinger Band upper limit) [4] - Support levels are noted at 144.17-144.26 (21-day moving average and base line) and 144.00 (high on May 7) [5]

5月19日，日本央行副行长內田真一重申央行的观点，即不确定性极高，将不带着先入之见来监测经济 前景。内田表示，如果物价趋势最终将升向2%的目标实现，央行将加息。受美国关税措施影响，日本 经济增长预计将放缓，这将对通胀造成压力。 ...

日本央行副行长内田真一：近期通胀受到成本推动因素的影响。 预计增长放缓将对通胀构成压力。 若经济前景实现，日本央行将加息。 不确定性相当高。 将不带成见地审视经济前景。 ...

日本4月份核心通胀率或创两年来最快增速 金十数据5月16日讯，路透调查显示，日本4月核心通胀可能录得两年来最快增速，因能源补贴减少和食 品价格上涨，这加大了日本央行加息的压力。对19位经济学家进行的一项调查显示，日本4月份核心 CPI预计将同比上涨3.4%。这一数字将是自2023年4月以来的最高水平，而3月份为3.2%。瑞穗研究技术 的一位分析师表示："尽管从4月份开始取消高校学费将是降低成本压力的一个因素，但非易变质食品和 餐厅服务价格的修正将是推高通胀的一个因素。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Toyoaki Nakamura, suggests that rushing to raise interest rates may negatively impact consumer spending, indicating that maintaining policy stability is currently appropriate [1] Group 1 - The urgency to increase interest rates could lead to a decline in consumer expenditure [1] - Maintaining a stable policy is deemed suitable at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The weak GDP data for Japan in the first quarter suggests that the Bank of Japan may delay interest rate hikes longer than previously anticipated [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's first quarter GDP data was below expectations, particularly disappointing in personal consumption, which remained flat compared to the previous quarter [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to hinder Japan's export growth, leading to a more pessimistic economic outlook from the Bank of Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates as early as July appears to be decreasing based on the current economic indicators [1]

与2020年框架大修相比，此次调整将更为微妙 尽管市场普遍期待获得降息线索，但鲍威尔很可能将焦点转向更具实质意义的议题。 有分析认为，这次演讲的核心将是美联储对其货币政策框架的评估，即如何履行充分就业和价格稳定双 重使命的蓝图。 尽管一些经济学家呼吁进行重大改革，但一些分析认为，今年的框架更新将更加微妙。预计将进行一些 调整，重点是采取"对称性"的通胀应对方法，并改进美联储的经济预测摘要（SEP），许多评论家认为 该摘要不够透明。 今晚（15日）20:40，美联储主席鲍威尔将在一场活动上致开幕词。 美联储上次彻底改革其货币政策框架是在2020年。当时，利率接近于零，美联储正在向金融系统注入流 动性。 然而，自那以来，情况发生了巨大变化。通货膨胀在2022年飙升至9.1%的峰值，促使美联储采取了40 年来最激进的加息行动。 尽管目前物价压力已经有所缓解，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。 这次演讲也恰逢政治压力再次浮现。周三，特朗普继续"炮轰"鲍威尔，写道： "美联储必须像欧洲那样降低利率。太迟的鲍威尔怎么了？这对准备好蓬勃发展的美国不公 平？就让一切发生吧，那将是一件美好的事情！" 此外，特朗普的关税威胁笼罩在美联储 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices declined due to the fulfillment of the positive impact of temporary tariff relaxation but rebounded after the release of inflation data. The US April CPI annual rate decreased, but the month - on - month increase was 0.2%. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks led to a better - than - expected reduction in tax rates. The Fed remained on hold in the May interest - rate meeting, and it's difficult for the Fed to make a clear statement in the short term. Economic data starting from May will show a more obvious stagflation trend. Geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand continue to provide support. Gold may enter a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum in the short term. However, gold will still be supported in the third quarter when the US economic recession is verified [5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 763.08, 769.38, 8192.00, and 8260.00 respectively, with price drops of - 2.32, - 2.26, - 27.00, and - 24.00, and declines of - 0.30%, - 0.29%, - 0.33%, and - 0.29% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 112779, 27316, 445790, and 45686 respectively, and the open interests are 69033, 55794, 188738, and 122135 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 0.32, - 5.98, 22.00, and - 46.00 respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Silver were 763.4, 752.62, and 32.89 respectively. The price increases were 5.25, 2.86, and 0.32, and the increases were 0.69%, 0.38%, and 0.98% respectively [2] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 6.30, 68, 92.94, 7.31, and 7.77 respectively [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver changed by 0, 7231.00, 153359.33, and - 1238348 respectively [2] 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Ratios**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.9827, 5886.55, 4.49, 66.6, and 7.1968 respectively, with changes of - 0.82%, 0.72%, 0.90%, 0.01%, and - 0.04% respectively [2] 3.5 Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold changed by 1.00, 1.00, 481, and - 1451 respectively [2] 3.6 News - **US - Saudi Agreement**: Saudi Arabia promised to invest $600 billion in the US, including $80 billion in high - tech companies and a nearly $142 billion arms sales agreement. The Saudi Crown Prince aims to increase the investment to $1 trillion [3] - **US Tax Bill**: The US House Ways and Means Committee announced a tax bill, planning to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next decade [3] - **US Trade Negotiations**: US Treasury Secretary downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the EU but was optimistic about agreements with Asian partners [3] - **India's Response**: India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs, and the Indian Commerce Minister will visit the US to discuss tariff issues [3] - **Central Bank Stances**: The Bank of Japan is determined to maintain the rate - hike stance, and the European Central Bank may cut rates again by summer [4]

【资讯导读】 ·中国央行与巴西央行续签双边本币互换协议 ·美财长贝森特认为与欧盟快速达成贸易协议可能性低 ·欧洲央行管委：可能于夏季再次降息 ·美国4月CPI同比上涨2.3% 连续三个月低于预期 【市场资讯】 ·中国央行与巴西央行续签双边本币互换协议，规模为1900亿元人民币/1570亿巴西雷亚尔，协议有效期 五年，经双方同意可以展期。 ·美国财长贝森特认为与欧盟快速达成贸易协议可能性低，指出欧盟的"集体行动问题"影响谈判进度。 相较之下，他对与亚洲伙伴如日本和印尼的谈判进展表示乐观。 ·美元指数下跌0.82%报100.9827，欧元兑美元上涨0.88%报1.1185，英镑兑美元上涨0.98%报1.3305，澳 元兑美元上涨1.53%报0.6470，美元兑日元下跌0.66%报147.4910，美元兑加元下跌0.27%报1.3936，美元 兑瑞郎下跌0.72%报0.8395。 【日内重点关注】 ·14:00 德国4月CPI月率终值 ·日本央行副行长内田真一表示，尽管美国关税政策带来不确定性，但预计薪资和物价将上涨，表明日 本央行坚持加息立场。 ·美国4月CPI同比上涨2.3%，连续三个月低于预期，创2021年2 ...

日经225指数大涨超2% 5月13日早间，日本股市大幅高开，随后直线拉升，日经225指数大涨超2%，站上38000点，为3月 26日以来首次。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/13，不作投资推荐） 个股方面，三菱日联金融集团、丰田、东京电子均涨超4%。 | 三菱重工 | 2,724.0 | | --- | --- | | © 8:14:48 日本东京 | -12.5 (-0.46%) | | 三菱日联金融集团 | 1,933.5 | | ⊙ 8:14:48 日本东京 | +94.0 (+5.11%) | | Advantest Corp. | 7,478.0 | | © 8:14:47 日本东京 | +178.0 (+2.44%) | | 川崎重工 | 8,611.0 | | © 8:14:48 日本东京 | -41.0 (-0.47%) | | 东京电子 | 23.980.0 | | 58.14.48 日本车章 | +1 090 0 (+4 76%) | 5月13日早间，国际金价小幅调整，截至发稿，现货黄金报3238美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货涨 0.53%，报3245.1美元/盎司。 ...