2月10日，中国驻美国大使馆举办"稳中求进在马年"新春招待会。谢锋大使致辞强调，元首外交是中美 关系的"指南针"和"定盘星"，我们应该坚持元首战略引领不动摇。谢锋说，上周通话时，习近平主席表 示，愿同特朗普总统继续引领中美关系这艘大船穿越风浪、平稳前行，多办一些大事、好事。特朗普总 统表示，乐见中国成功，美方愿与中方加强合作，推动两国关系取得新发展。双方应珍视并落实好两国 元首重要共识，坚定不移沿着两国领导人指明的方向前进，不折不扣将元首的战略引领转化为实实在在 的政策、行动与实践，推动中美关系巨轮不偏航、不失速、向前进。 ...

问：近日，美国驻孟加拉国大使克里斯滕森接受路透社采访，称美方对中国在南亚地区影响力持续上升 表示关切，将向孟方阐明在某些领域与中国开展合作可能存在的风险。对此中方有何评价？ 答：我馆已就有关问题严正阐明立场。美驻孟大使老调重弹，对中孟关系说三道四，搬弄是非，用心险 恶。我愿再次强调，中孟两国相互尊重、相互支持，树立了国与国之间友好交往、互利合作的典范。中 国是南亚国家可信赖的伙伴，中国同南亚国家的友好合作维护了地区和平稳定、促进了发展振兴，得到 各国人民的支持和拥护。中孟以及中国同南亚国家的关系不针对第三方，也不受任何第三方影响，任何 干涉阻挠的企图必将失败。 来源：中国驻孟加拉国大使馆 ...

Group 1 - The recent victory of Japan's ruling coalition in the House of Representatives elections has elevated the political stature of Kishi Sanae, indicating a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape, particularly in U.S.-China relations [1][3][5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant's remarks suggest that Japan's strengthened position may provide the U.S. with renewed opportunities to engage in competition with China, highlighting Japan's potential role as a key player in this geopolitical rivalry [5][9] - The upcoming military sales plan to Taiwan, potentially worth $20 billion, could significantly impact the Taiwan Strait situation and challenge China's bottom line, indicating the complexities of U.S.-China relations [7] Group 2 - Elon Musk's predictions regarding U.S.-China technological competition emphasize that by 2026, China's power generation capacity may reach three times that of the U.S., underscoring the importance of technological innovation for national economic strength [9][10] - Musk warns that without breakthroughs in technology, particularly in AI, humanoid robots, and electric vehicles, the U.S. risks falling behind China, highlighting vulnerabilities in U.S. strategic resources like rare earth elements [10][12] - The attitudes of Europe, Russia, and India towards U.S.-China relations are crucial, with European leaders expressing support for Japan's new leadership, while India's Prime Minister Modi acknowledges Kishi Sanae's potential contributions to regional stability [13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose with stable domestic oil and fat supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral with improving demand. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventory. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased 5.46% month - on - month to 1829800 tons, exports increased 8.55% month - on - month to 1316500 tons, and end - of - month inventory increased 7.59% month - on - month to 3050600 tons. The report is slightly bearish with inventory data exceeding expectations. Current shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data in January increased 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 302, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, but up 14.7% year - on - year. [2] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season with a 29% month - on - month increase in January export data. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8960, with a basis of 20, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase and up 46% year - on - year. [3] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract turned to short positions. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100. [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season with a 29% month - on - month increase in January export data. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9900, with a basis of 804, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease and down 44% year - on - year. [4] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300. [4] 3.4 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

再说个具体的，路透社最近报道了一组金融数据，中国持有的美国国债规模虽然在波动，但依然维持在七千多亿美元的高位。你可能会说， 这算什么？但你看看美联储最新的利率会议纪要，美国现在的债务利息支出已经快要压垮联邦预算了。 如果真的到了撕破脸那一步，金融市场的踩踏式崩盘不是开玩笑的。我昨天在想，华尔街那些精明到骨子里的人，怎么可能允许这种自杀式 的胜利发生？他们要的是利润，不是一片焦土后的荒凉。 我问你个问题，你觉得现在这局势，真的是美国不敢打吗？我这几天盯着屏幕，反复看那些枯燥的进出口账单和五角大楼的推演报告，我心 里其实憋了一口气。 很多人总觉得开火就是按个电钮的事，但我查了下数据，尤其是看到这两天美联储和美国商务部刚放出来的消息，我发现这事儿根本没那么 简单。这根本不是胆量的问题，这是一个关于赢了之后怎么办的绝望算计。 就在2026年2月，我看到美国商务部公布的一份内部评估，里面提到美国目前有超过百分之三十的核心制造零部件依然无法完全脱离亚洲供 应链，尤其是来自中国的初级加工件。这让我想到，如果你是一个工厂的老板，你手里握着世界上最先进的武器，但你的流水线轴承、你的 电路板电容甚至你员工穿的工服，全在对方手里， ...

Core Viewpoint - The phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump emphasizes the importance of mutual respect, equality, and reciprocity in addressing concerns between the two nations, which is crucial for the stability of U.S.-China relations and the global economy [1][2]. Group 1: Key Points on U.S.-China Relations - U.S.-China relations are significant not only for the two countries but also for the global economy and international order, with stability in these relations providing certainty for the international community [1]. - Differences in social systems, development stages, and cultural histories between the U.S. and China are acknowledged as inevitable, and the focus should be on how to manage and address these differences [1][2]. - The principles of equality, respect, and reciprocity are essential for resolving complex issues between the two nations, and deviation from these principles can exacerbate conflicts and erode the foundation for cooperation [2]. Group 2: Importance of Trust and Commitment - Trust is fundamental for the long-term stability of U.S.-China relations, and it must be built through consistent actions and commitments from both sides [2]. - China emphasizes the importance of keeping promises and taking concrete actions to enhance stability and predictability in U.S.-China relations [2]. - The expectation is for the U.S. to respond to China's calls for cooperation with tangible actions that reinforce mutual trust and commitment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The statements made by Draghi highlight the perceived risks facing the EU, including potential domination, fragmentation, and deindustrialization, urging for faster integration and transformation into a "true federation" to avoid being left behind in global trends [2] Group 1: Economic Relations and Trade - Draghi's comments suggest that Western countries' trade with China post-WTO accession has led to political backlash, contributing to reduced global trade and weakened rules, ultimately impacting Europe's economic standing [2] - The narrative that EU-China economic cooperation has been detrimental is challenged, as the EU has benefited from exports in sectors like automotive and luxury goods, while Chinese goods have lowered production and living costs in Europe [4][6] Group 2: Internal EU Challenges - The decline in EU competitiveness is attributed to internal issues such as insufficient innovation investment, fragmented markets, high energy costs, and geopolitical risks, rather than external factors like China [6] - Europe's structural problems, including aging population and welfare system rigidity, along with energy policy missteps, have led to significant economic challenges, including industrial migration due to high energy prices [7] Group 3: External Pressures and Political Dynamics - The real threats to Europe are seen as stemming from U.S. hegemony and protectionist policies, which have undermined global trade rules and European economic foundations, rather than from China [7][9] - Draghi's remarks reflect a strategic anxiety among European politicians, caught between U.S. pressures and internal issues, leading to a tendency to externalize blame onto China [9] Group 4: Future Directions for Europe - The focus for Europe should shift from scapegoating to addressing internal challenges and fostering independent diplomatic and development strategies, recognizing that cooperation with China is essential for recovery [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Report Date: February 6, 2026 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: 0575-85226759 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the imported inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary of Different Oils 3.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey institutions show that Malaysia's palm oil export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,422, the basis is 318, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. [2] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) will fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300. [2] 3.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the report is slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,032, the basis is -10, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 46%. [3] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil (P2605) will fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [3] 3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report data as above, slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,980, the basis is 836, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. [4] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) will fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400. [4] 4. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil tremor season. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Oil prices are at a historically high level, domestic oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

新华社电 2月4日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。 特朗普表示，美国和中国都是伟大的国家，美中关系是世界上最重要的双边关系。我同习近平主席有着 伟大的关系，我很尊重习近平主席。在我和习近平主席引领下，美中在经贸等领域进行了良好互动。我 乐见中国成功，美方愿与中方加强合作，推动两国关系取得新发展。我重视中方在台湾问题上的关切， 愿同中方保持沟通，在我任内保持美中关系良好稳定。 习近平指出，过去一年，我们保持着良好沟通，在釜山成功会晤，为中美关系领航把舵，受到两国人民 和国际社会欢迎。我高度重视中美关系。新的一年，我愿同你继续引领中美关系这艘大船穿越风浪、平 稳前行，多办一些大事、好事。美方有美方的关切，中方有中方的关切。中方言必信，行必果，说到做 到。只要双方秉持平等、尊重、互惠的态度相向而行，就可以找到解决彼此关切的办法。今年中美两国 各自都有不少重要议程，中国"十五五"开局起步，美国将迎来建国250周年，两国将分别主办亚太经合 组织领导人非正式会议、二十国集团领导人峰会。双方要按照我们达成的共识，加强对话沟通，妥善管 控分歧，拓展务实合作，不以善小而不为，不以恶小而为之，一件事一件事去做，不断积累 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of maintaining good communication and cooperation between China and the United States, with both leaders expressing a commitment to navigate challenges together [1][2] - Xi Jinping highlighted the significance of the Taiwan issue as the most critical aspect of Sino-U.S. relations, asserting China's stance on national sovereignty and territorial integrity [1] - Both leaders acknowledged the upcoming significant events in 2026, including the 250th anniversary of the United States and the APEC and G20 summits, indicating opportunities for enhanced dialogue and cooperation [1][2] Group 2 - Trump expressed respect for Xi Jinping and acknowledged the positive interactions in trade and other areas under their leadership, indicating a willingness to strengthen bilateral relations [2] - The dialogue reflects a mutual understanding of each country's concerns, particularly regarding Taiwan, with an emphasis on maintaining stable relations during Trump's presidency [2]