Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China, marked by a bipartisan congressional delegation's visit to China, which is seen as a step towards stabilizing bilateral relations after years of tension [1][2][4] - The delegation, led by Adam Smith, emphasizes the need for increased communication and cooperation between the two nations, particularly in economic and military dialogues, to break the current deadlock in relations [1][2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang expresses the importance of a stable and sustainable U.S.-China relationship, advocating for mutual respect and cooperation to benefit both countries and the international community [2][4] Group 2 - The visit is notable as it is the first official congressional delegation to China since 2019, indicating a renewed focus on U.S.-China relations after a period of limited engagement due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions [1][4] - The U.S. ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, underscores the critical role of this bipartisan team in managing U.S.-China relations, reflecting a broader commitment to dialogue and cooperation [4] - The articles reference past tensions, including Nancy Pelosi's controversial visit to Taiwan, which strained relations, highlighting the need for careful diplomatic engagement moving forward [5][6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the state of U.S.-China relations and its implications for the capital markets, focusing on trade negotiations and geopolitical dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Normalization of U.S.-China High-Level Dialogue** The normalization of high-level dialogues between the U.S. and China suggests that negotiations will become more frequent, potentially occurring quarterly or biannually, which may help both sides reach a consensus [1][2][6] 2. **Shift in U.S. Policy Towards China** The U.S. may be shifting its policy from containment to strategic stability, with a focus on ensuring security in the Western Hemisphere, which could alter its strategy in the Asia-Pacific region [1][15] 3. **China's Economic Resilience** China has demonstrated economic resilience in response to the trade war, prompting the U.S. to reassess the balance of power between the two nations and possibly adjust its policy towards China [1][28] 4. **U.S. Treasury Secretary's Approach** U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson's pragmatic and flexible approach to negotiations, focusing on debt and dollar issues rather than advocating for strategic decoupling, may lead to more balanced U.S.-China economic discussions [1][11] 5. **Impact of New U.S. Ambassador to China** The arrival of new U.S. Ambassador to China, Pompeo, has improved high-level interactions and communication between the two countries, positively influencing the development of U.S.-China relations [1][12] 6. **Future High-Level Meetings** Upcoming events, such as the APEC summit in October and Trump's planned visit to China in early 2026, are expected to significantly impact U.S.-China relations [1][6][7] 7. **Current State of U.S.-China Trade Negotiations** The trade negotiations are in two phases, with the first phase focusing on tariffs and the second phase addressing broader issues like investment and technology. A new consensus has emerged, including a joint venture for TikTok in the U.S. [1][9] 8. **China's Position on TikTok** China has made concessions regarding TikTok but demands improvements in the business environment for Chinese companies in the U.S. as a condition for moving forward with the TikTok agreement [1][5] 9. **U.S. Economic Challenges** The U.S. faces economic challenges, including rising unemployment and inflation, which may influence Trump's policies and focus on economic improvement ahead of the midterm elections [1][17] 10. **China's Military Display and Its Impact** The recent military display by China has led the U.S. to reassess its military and economic strategies, indicating a potential shift from deterrence to seeking strategic stability [1][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Diplomatic Language Changes** The absence of the term "at the request" in recent communications reflects a subtle shift in diplomatic language, indicating a desire to avoid implying that the U.S. is dependent on China [1][3] 2. **Internal U.S. Coordination Issues** There are indications of poor internal coordination within the U.S. government, as evidenced by conflicting actions following negotiations, which could complicate future discussions [1][14] 3. **Potential for Future Cooperation** The upcoming leaders' meeting is expected to yield specific outcomes, particularly in areas like drug trafficking cooperation, which could enhance bilateral relations [1][19] 4. **Investment Opportunities in Renewable Energy** China has a comparative advantage in the renewable energy sector, which may see increased investment opportunities as the U.S. government may be more open to such investments to create jobs and generate tax revenue [1][29][30] 5. **Long-Term Economic Planning in China** China is preparing for its next five-year plan, which historically has been completed ahead of schedule, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [1][16]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the implications of recent immigration policies under the Trump administration. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Divergent Views on Monetary Policy** The Federal Reserve exhibits significant internal disagreement regarding future monetary policy, with some officials advocating for two more rate cuts while others suggest only one or even an increase in rates [3][4][8] 2. **Market Interpretation of Rate Cuts** The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve was perceived as less dovish than expected, leading to a more hawkish interpretation by the market. This was due to the absence of a larger 50 basis point cut that some market participants anticipated [2][9] 3. **Impact of Employment Issues on Monetary Policy** The primary economic challenges in the U.S. are centered on employment rather than demand. Rising corporate costs are leading to reduced hiring, which is exacerbated by tariffs and immigration policies. The Federal Reserve is urged to focus on inflation and price pressures rather than solely stimulating demand through rate cuts [7][19] 4. **Stock Market Performance and Risks** Despite the S&P 500 index reaching new highs, there are concerns about excessive optimism in the market, particularly driven by a few technology giants. The overall earnings expectations for the majority of companies have not improved, raising risks associated with market concentration [10] 5. **U.S.-China Relations and Strategic Stability** Future U.S.-China relations are expected to remain competitive but strategically stable. Both countries are focusing on localizing key industries to enhance self-sufficiency, which may lead to a prolonged period of tension without significant escalation [14][15] 6. **Changes in H1B Visa Policy** The Trump administration has increased fees for H1B visa applications significantly, aiming to limit foreign labor influx and protect domestic workers. This policy could lead to higher operational costs for companies reliant on foreign talent [5][20] 7. **Macroeconomic Implications of Immigration Policies** The new immigration policies may result in increased corporate costs and inefficiencies. Companies may face higher expenses if they continue hiring foreign talent or struggle with skill mismatches and higher wage demands when hiring locally. This could contribute to inflationary pressures and potential stagflation risks [21] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Federal Reserve's Limited Aggressiveness in Rate Cuts** The expectation for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is tempered, indicating a cautious approach in response to economic data [9][8] 2. **Public Sentiment on Trump's Policies** There is a noted decline in public satisfaction with Trump's policies, particularly regarding inflation, which is affecting lower-income groups disproportionately [17][18] 3. **Economic Disparities and Political Implications** The growing economic divide and pressures on low-income individuals could complicate the political landscape, especially with upcoming elections [16][19]

Macro and Market News - President Xi Jinping and US President Trump had a phone call discussing the current state of US-China relations and strategic guidance for future development [2] - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of mutual respect and cooperation in resolving issues, particularly regarding TikTok [2][4] - The State Council held a meeting to discuss the implementation of domestic product standards in government procurement, aiming to ensure fair competition [2] Company News - The IPO of Moer Thread will be reviewed on September 26, 2025, focusing on the development of GPU chips and related products [14] - Sunflower plans to acquire 100% equity of Xipu Materials and 40% equity of Beid Pharmaceutical, with its stock resuming trading on September 22, 2025 [17] - Absolute Food reported that it failed to disclose revenue accurately from 2017 to 2021, leading to a change in its stock name to "ST Absolute" starting September 23, 2025 [18][19] - ST New Power is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations [20] - Fudan Fuhua reported inflated profits in its annual reports from 2019 to 2023, leading to a name change to "ST Fuhua" starting September 23, 2025 [20] - Creative Information reported overstatement of revenue in its 2022 and 2023 reports, resulting in a name change to "ST Creative" starting September 23, 2025 [21] Industry News - The National Medical Insurance Administration released the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, emphasizing principles of clinical stability and quality assurance [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing a development plan for the new battery industry to prevent low-level redundant construction [11] - Some banks are experiencing tight supply of large-denomination certificates of deposit with interest rates exceeding 2% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and the U.S. Congressional delegation led by Smith emphasizes the importance of stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations, which aligns with the mutual interests of both countries and the expectations of the international community [1] Group 1 - China expresses willingness to engage with the U.S. based on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation [1] - Li Qiang highlights the need for both countries to act as partners in development, fostering sincerity, mutual empowerment, and shared achievements [1] - The Chinese side advocates for resolving concerns through communication, emphasizing equality, respect, and reciprocity [1] Group 2 - There is a call for the U.S. Congress to play a constructive role in promoting friendship and common development between the two nations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - The bond market remained volatile in September. Regulatory disturbances occurred in the first half, and the better-than-expected China-US negotiations in the second half. The current financial market's interbank idle circulation is not severe, so there's no need for large-scale financial supervision. The central bank maintains a supportive stance, so the pattern of a ceiling on interest rates won't change. The 10-year Treasury bond at 1.8% and the 5-year at 1.6% have allocation value. It's recommended to seize the left-side opportunity, hold old 10-year Treasury bonds and 2 - 3-year medium to high-grade credit bonds in the short term, and gradually switch to 25T6 later [3]. - Under weak fundamentals, strict financial supervision is likely, but the regulatory risk in this round is limited compared to history. The current idle circulation problem in the financial market is not prominent, and the central bank's "anti-idle circulation" in the Q2 2025 monetary policy report mainly refers to the "enterprise - finance" level. The possibility of a systematic adjustment in the bond market is limited [3]. - The China-US phone call has a complex impact on the stock market. In the short term, it's more beneficial. For the bond market, the implementation of the negotiation results may delay the use of aggregate monetary policy tools in Q4. Considering the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate ceiling of about 1.9% in Q1 and the 10bp interest rate cut in May, the current 1.8% 10-year Treasury bond has significant allocation value [3]. - From September 15th to 19th, funds were slightly tight, and yields generally rose. The progress of China-US negotiations, poor Treasury bond issuance results, and Shanghai's property tax adjustment were negative factors, while the weak economic data in October was positive. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 1.19BP to 1.88%, and the 10-year CDB bond yield fell 0.93BP to 2.02% [3]. - As of September 14th, the wealth management scale increased slightly, and the duration decreased. The public fund duration decreased to 2.30, and the divergence degree decreased, with a slight increase in market consensus [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Whether to Worry about Strict Regulatory Risks - In a weak economic environment, financial institutions may engage in regulatory arbitrage due to profit - seeking motives under loose monetary conditions. However, the current financial market's idle circulation is not serious, and the central bank maintains a supportive attitude, so the bond market may adjust, but the pattern of a ceiling on interest rates remains [7][15]. 1.1 2013: On - balance - sheet Interbank Expansion and the Money Crunch - In the first half of 2013, the macro - background was weak fundamentals, loose monetary policy, and strong expectations of stimulus policies. Banks had a strong motivation for business expansion, leading to significant growth in interbank liabilities and a surge in wealth management business. The tightening of monetary policy and financial supervision had a significant impact on the bond market [16][21][25]. 1.2 2016: Liability - side Driven Capital Out of the Balance Sheet - In 2016, the economic downturn led to weak real - sector financing demand. Banks faced pressure on the liability side and used active liability management and asset - side allocation to form inter - bank chains. The financial de - leveraging starting from October 2016 and the subsequent tightening of fundamentals, inter - bank supervision, and monetary policy had a large impact on the bond market [28][35][38]. 2. How to View This Round of the Head - of - State Phone Call - Analyzing Trump's social media posts after the two phone calls, this round of the phone call achieved more results. It's expected that the scope of trade restrictions may be narrowed, and the fentanyl tariff may be reduced. For the stock market, it's more beneficial in the short term, but it may reduce the possibility of large - scale domestic incremental policies. For the bond market, it may delay the use of aggregate monetary policy tools in Q4, and the 1.8% 10 - year Treasury bond has allocation value [39][41][44]. 3. The Decline of the Bond Market Slows Down - From September 15th to 19th, the central bank's open - market operations were net injections, and funds were slightly tight. Bond yields generally rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 1.19bp to 1.88% and the 10 - year CDB bond yield falling 0.93bp to 2.02%. Different factors affected the bond market on each trading day [46][50][51]. 4. The Wealth Management Scale Increases Slightly - As of September 14th, the wealth management's existing scale reached 31.07 trillion yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 238.2 billion yuan. The new - issued wealth management scale from September 8th to 14th was 207.76 billion yuan. In September, the scale of fixed - income products increased, and the net - breaking rate decreased slightly [52][54][57]. 5. Duration - From September 15th to 19th, the public fund duration decreased by 0.02 to 2.30 compared to September 12th, with a weekly average of 2.39. The duration divergence degree decreased, and market consensus increased slightly [61].

未来一周：持续关注中美互动；联合国大会；地缘冲突；美国关税及其他内 政。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 21 日 聚焦中美关系后续进展 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：中美第四轮经贸会谈及中美元首通话；王毅外长访问欧洲；地缘冲 突；美国关税及其他内政。 ❑ 未来一周关注： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）9 月 14-15 日中美第四轮经贸会谈；9 月 19 日中美元首通话。中美经贸 会谈仍延续此前先解决短期风险、稳定市场预期，同时继续推动更深层 次磋商、积累互信，但坚持底线不急于达成最终协议的风格。除经贸议 题，近期中美在军事外交上也持续互动。考虑到特朗普政府目前在其他 地缘冲突议程上缺乏进展、对俄油买家制裁威胁实施难度大、美国内政 问题持续占据政府精力，持续关注中美后续互动及双边关系进展，关注 下一轮经贸会谈、10 月底在韩国举办的 APEC 峰会。 2）9 月 12-16 日王毅外长访问奥地利、斯洛文尼亚、波兰。其中，中国波 兰双方讨论了中国稀土相关物项对波出口许可事宜，且愿 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng and Sinclair Broadcast Group's prominent host Atkinson focused on U.S.-China relations and media coverage of China [1] - Ambassador Xie emphasized China's policy stance on developing U.S.-China relations and encouraged objective and comprehensive reporting on China to enhance mutual understanding [1] - Sinclair Broadcast Group is the largest local television operator in the U.S., owning or operating nearly 200 television stations, covering 40% of American households [1]

图 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯在接受智通财经采访时表示，这次通话释放了积极和建设性的信 号，两国领导人肯定了最新一轮中美经贸谈判取得的成果，并表达了双方将继续努力在其他领域取得更 多成果的希望。同时，通话也明确了中美关系接下来的走向，"那就是两国领导人的会晤和互访，通过 元首外交来引领中美关系的发展。" 视觉中国 智通财经记者 聂舒翼 据新华社报道，9月19日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，就当前中美关系和共同关心的 问题坦诚深入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。通话是务实、积极、建设性的。 习近平强调，中美关系十分重要。中美完全可以相互成就、共同繁荣，造福两国、惠及世界。要实现这 个愿景，双方都要相向而行、付出努力，实现相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢。双方团队最近的磋商体 现了平等、尊重和互惠的精神，可继续妥善处理两国关系中的突出问题，争取实现双赢的结果。 视觉中国 中国人民大学国际关系学院教授、美国研究中心副主任刁大明对智通财经表示，此次通话表明，元首外 交持续在中美关系中，发挥着战略引领、定向把舵引航的不可替代的关键作用。他表示，这次通话"确 认了过去一段时间以来，中美通过沟 ...

9月19日，习近平主席同美国总统特朗普通电话，就当前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深入交换意 见。这次通话务实、积极、具有建设性，为下阶段两国关系的发展作出至关重要的战略指引。 探寻中美两个大国正确相处之道，可以从历史中找寻答案。在世界反法西斯战争中，中美两国人民并肩 战斗，共同为捍卫世界和平与正义作出重大贡献。飞虎队的故事在中国广为人知，中国军民奋勇救助杜 立特中校等美国飞行员的故事感动了很多美国朋友。二战结束80年来，血与火铸就的中美两国人民友谊 代代相传。为了世界和平与国际正义，中美曾真诚携手。当今世界变乱交织，全球经济增长乏力，中美 理应汲取历史智慧，着眼双方和全球共同利益，开展卓有成效的合作。这是历史赋予中美双方的责任， 也是国际社会的共同期待。 元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用。过去几个月，正是在两国元首重要共识指引下， 双方经贸团队先后在日内瓦、伦敦、斯德哥尔摩、马德里举行会谈，达成积极共识。双方的磋商体现了 平等、尊重和互惠的精神，推动中美经贸关系朝着健康、稳定、可持续方向发展。这充分表明，确保中 美这两艘巨轮共同前行，不偏航、不失速，必须坚持两国元首的战略引领不动摇，坚持落实两国 ...