12月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0656，下调18点。 美联储明年1月维持利率不变的概率为75.6% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为75.6%。到 明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为41.9%，维持利率不变的概率为49.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 8.3%。 哈塞特谈接掌美联储：考虑特朗普意见 但坚持决策独立性 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，如果他被选中领导美联储，他会考虑特朗普的政策意见，但 美联储的利率决定仍将保持独立。哈塞特周日表示："总统对于我们应该做什么，持有非常强烈且有充 分根据的看法。但最终，美联储的职责是保持独立，并与理事会和FOMC的成员们合作，就利率应处于 的水平达成集体共识。"哈塞特表示："就算当了美联储主席，每天也会很乐意与总统交谈，直到我们俩 都去世，因为和他交谈'太有趣了'。"然而，他驳斥了总统的意见将与FOMC有投票权的成员具有同等分 量的说法，称政策制定者可以自由地拒绝他的意见并"以不同的方式投票"。哈塞特说："不，不，他不 会有任何分量。只是，如果他的意见是好的、基于数据的，那它才重要。" 来源 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of Dongwu Securities, Lu Zhe, believes that 2025 will mark the end of the RMB depreciation cycle over the past three years and may initiate a new appreciation phase [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Forecast - It is expected that by 2026, under the backdrop of a structurally weak US dollar index, China's current account surplus and net inflow of securities investment funds will likely push the RMB/USD exchange rate above the 7.0 mark [1] - If the annualized exchange rate volatility can be maintained within the range of 3.0% to 4.0%, the RMB/USD exchange rate may rise to the range of 6.70 to 6.80 by the end of 2026 [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月10日，人民币兑美元即期午后涨幅扩至88点逼近7.06元关口，创2024年10月9日以来 新高。 ...

（原标题：人民币兑美元中间价上调20个基点后，已升破7.07） 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，12月10日，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币 7.0753元，相较前一日中间价7.0773元，调升20个基点。 截至上午10点05分，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元的汇率分别为7.0622、7.0615。 ...

"哎，今天美元又换多少人民币？我朋友说要换点美金给孩子交学费，结果拖了几天，汇率又变了！"这话最近在不少家长、海淘族甚至做外贸的小老板嘴里 都能听到。确实，年底这会儿，人民币兑美元的汇率就像天气一样，看着平静，其实暗流涌动。12月9日这天，一美元兑人民币中间价是7.0764，波动不 大，但背后的故事可不少。 普通人该怎么应对？ 如果你只是偶尔换点美元旅游、留学，其实不用太纠结这几天的波动。7.07和7.05，差不了几百块，真没必要天天盯盘。但如果你手头有大额外汇需求，比 如几十万美金的货款，那可以分批操作，别一次性全换了。另外，与其赌汇率，不如把精力放在主业上——毕竟，赚美元的能力，比省那点汇差重要得多。 外资为啥又开始买人民币资产？ 你可能不知道，11月境外机构一口气买了800多亿的人民币债券，北向资金也连续流入。这不是瞎投，而是人家看中了咱们经济的底子。制造业PMI重回扩 张区间，说明工厂又忙起来了；出口增长超预期，说明东西还是卖得动。这些实实在在的数据，比啥口号都有说服力。说白了，钱往哪儿跑，就说明哪儿有 希望。 别看现在汇率稳，但眼睛还得盯着大洋彼岸。12月12号，老美要公布CPI数据，这直接关系到他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article explains the fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate, emphasizing that these changes are influenced by various economic factors rather than random occurrences. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The stability of the domestic economy is a key factor, with signs of recovery in manufacturing and consumption contributing to a stronger RMB [4]. - The easing environment in the U.S. also plays a role, as expectations of interest rate cuts can enhance the comparative strength of the RMB [4]. - The direction of capital flows is crucial; an influx of foreign investment into the domestic market can bolster the RMB's value [4]. Group 2: Observations on Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB's performance over the past year has shown variability, with periods of gradual increase and sudden spikes, resembling a runner's pace [6]. - The outlook suggests a "steady but not frantic" approach, with the RMB likely to fluctuate around the 7.0 mark in the short term, influenced by domestic stability and external uncertainties [6]. - Long-term trends are expected to be non-linear, with gradual progress rather than sharp movements, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for the RMB [6]. Group 3: Public Perception and Practical Advice - For the general public, the exchange rate should be viewed as an economic signal rather than a daily concern, especially for those not involved in foreign trade or cross-border investments [8]. - Individuals are advised to consider exchange rate ranges for currency conversion rather than reacting to daily fluctuations, focusing on overall trends instead [8].

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89.2%，维持利率不变的概率为10.8%。美联 储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为66.6%，维持利率不变的概率为7.7%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为25.7%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89.2% 12月3日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0754，上调40点。升值至2024年10月14日以来最高。 ...

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.0794, reflecting a decrease of 35 points [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 87.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 12.4% [4] - The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by January next year is 69.3%, with a 9.3% chance of no change, and a 21.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4]

Group 1 - The central bank of China has adjusted the RMB to USD exchange rate to 7.0759, marking a 30-point increase and reaching the highest level since October 14, 2024 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is at 87.4%, with a 12.6% chance of maintaining the current rate [4] - Goldman Sachs indicates that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to lower rates in the upcoming December meeting, with market pricing for a 25 basis point cut reaching approximately 85%-86% [5] - Key factors influencing the Fed's decision include a weakening job market and the need for policy risk management, with no significant data expected to alter this direction [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the RMB against the USD is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. monetary policy, domestic economic recovery, and global risk sentiment. The RMB is expected to maintain a stable range in the near term, with potential fluctuations based on these influences [1][3][7]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of November 25, 2025, the RMB to USD central parity rate is reported at 7.0847, an increase of 28 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating the central bank's intention to stabilize the exchange rate [1]. - The RMB has experienced significant fluctuations over the past year, with a low of 7.25 in 2024 due to a strong USD and tightening U.S. trade policies, followed by a rapid appreciation to around 7.00 due to rising risk aversion [3]. - In 2025, the RMB's exchange rate fluctuated between a "policy floor" and a "market ceiling," with a cumulative appreciation of 0.93% for the year, reflecting a narrowing volatility range compared to previous years [3][4]. Influencing Factors - U.S. monetary policy remains a critical factor, with market predictions suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could exert downward pressure on the USD and influence the RMB [3][4]. - The pace of domestic economic recovery is also crucial, as China's GDP growth met expectations in Q3, but consumption and export recovery remain incomplete, with capital flows facing pressure [4]. - Global risk sentiment, particularly due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has increased demand for USD as a safe haven, putting additional pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB [4][6]. Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a range between 7.05 and 7.15 by the end of 2025, with the strength of the USD and the pace of domestic economic recovery being the primary influencing factors [6]. - If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as anticipated and the domestic economy continues to recover steadily, the RMB could potentially return to around 6.98 in 2026 [6]. - Investors should remain vigilant regarding exchange rate fluctuations, as unexpected events, such as changes in the Middle East situation or global economic uncertainties, could lead to short-term volatility [6][7].