Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. The supply will increase as maintenance work is completed and new production capacities come online, while the demand is moderate, and the export situation is weakening. The high inventory and futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply is increasing as new maintenance and capacity increase co - exist. The demand from the alumina sector is stable but affected by environmental control, and non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. However, the potential new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,638 yuan/ton (-32), with an East China basis of -58 yuan/ton (+12) and a South China basis of -8 yuan/ton (+2) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,580 yuan/ton (-20), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -763 yuan/ton (-40), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -545 yuan/ton (+16), and the PVC export profit is 1.6 US dollars/ton (+1.1) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory is 33.8 tons (+0.4), social inventory is 54.5 tons (-1.0), the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 76.47% (+4.82%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.50% (-0.06%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.09% (+3.35%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 tons (+13.9) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,303 yuan/ton (-33), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 197 yuan/ton (+33) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 806.6 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 103.78 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 979.23 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.26 tons (+2.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.73 tons (+0.28), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.30% (+3.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 85.86% (-0.41%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 68.06% (+0.75%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.66% (+1.05%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Maintenance work has been completed this week, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production. The supply is expected to be abundant [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate has increased, but the purchasing sentiment is average. Exports are relying on price cuts, and the export orders are weakening [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory level is high. The high - level futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: New maintenance and capacity increase co - exist, and the operation rate is rising. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from alumina in Shandong are stable, but the operation rate of alumina in Hebei has decreased slightly due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased slightly [3]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate in a wide range. Consider positive arbitrage between futures and spot [4]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate within a range [5]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.42%, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing open interest. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strong cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil plate was running weakly with a daily decline of 1.03%, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and open interest. At present, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot-rolled coils remains unchanged, and the concerns about demand have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, hot-rolled coils are under pressure to weaken, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.71%, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing open interest. At present, the supply of iron ore is high, while the demand continues to weaken, and the weak fundamentals of iron ore remain unchanged. Under the dominance of the real logic, the high-valued iron ore price is prone to decline under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In October, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.7%, remaining in the expansion range. Although the logistics business volume index had a slight correction, the overall demand maintained an expansion trend. Industrial logistics demand represented by bulk commodities declined to some extent, while consumer logistics demand showed an accelerating growth trend [6]. - Affected by the decline in output and weak demand, the manufacturing activity in the United States shrank for the eighth consecutive month in October. The manufacturing index of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) dropped 0.4 to 48.7. The output and employment indicators also declined [7]. - On October 31, 2025, Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry issued an announcement, making a positive final anti-dumping ruling on galvanized sheets originating from or imported from China, South Korea, and Vietnam. Anti-dumping duties will be levied on the涉案 products from these countries at the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) price. The anti-dumping duty rate for China is 0% - 26.80% [8]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Tianjin price was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national average price was 3,234 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. For hot-rolled coil plate, the Shanghai price was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,338 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 110 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,010 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 783 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 817 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars/ton; the ocean freight from Brazil was 23.11 US dollars/ton, down 0.21 US dollars/ton. The SGX swap price (current month) was 105.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.18 US dollars/ton; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 105.85 US dollars/ton, down 1.55 US dollars/ton [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,044 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The highest price was 3,084 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,040 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,016,465 lots, a decrease of 134,111 lots; the open interest was 1,966,544 lots, an increase of 47,527 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil plate futures active contract was 3,265 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The highest price was 3,299 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,260 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 375,271 lots, a decrease of 137,680 lots; the open interest was 1,396,130 lots, a decrease of 26,705 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.71%. The highest price was 784.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 773.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 276,598 lots, a decrease of 130,128 lots; the open interest was 547,754 lots, an increase of 12,824 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report includes charts on steel inventories (rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil plate inventory), iron ore inventories (national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory), steel mill production situation (blast furnace operating rate, electric furnace operating rate, steel mill profitability), etc., but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [15][20][29] 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand continue to rise. The production of construction steel mills is active, and the weekly output of rebar increased by 5.52 tons week-on-week, reaching a relatively high level this year. The inventory is high, and the pressure has increased. At the same time, the demand for rebar has improved seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 6.17 tons week-on-week, and the high-frequency daily trading volume has also increased. However, both supply and demand are still at relatively low levels in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the improvement space is limited. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved in the current situation of increasing supply and demand, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strong cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot-rolled coil plate: The supply-demand pattern has not changed much. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 1.10 tons week-on-week, remaining at a high level this year. The inventory reduction at a high level is limited, and the supply pressure is still relatively large, continuing to put pressure on the price of hot-rolled coils. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coils is acceptable, with the weekly apparent demand increasing week-on-week and remaining at a high level in the same period. However, the high-frequency trading volume is relatively weak, and the fundamentals of the main downstream cold-rolled products have not improved, so the demand concerns have not subsided. The relatively positive factor is the marginal improvement in external demand, but it needs to be tracked after the price rebounds. At present, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot-rolled coils remains unchanged, and the demand concerns have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Under the dominance of industrial logic, hot-rolled coils are under pressure to weaken, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [37]. - Iron ore: The supply-demand pattern continues to weaken. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal demand for iron ore continues to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore decreased week-on-week, and the decline continued to expand. The demand is clearly in a weakening trend. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, coupled with frequent seasonal production restriction disturbances, the demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decline, and the weak demand is likely to drag down the iron ore price. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded as expected, while the shipments of overseas miners have declined, but both are at relatively high levels. Coupled with the increase in domestic iron ore supply, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased. In general, the supply of iron ore is high, while the demand continues to weaken. The weak fundamentals of iron ore remain unchanged. Under the dominance of the real logic, the high-valued iron ore price is prone to decline under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommend buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggest holding a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggest range trading; bearish on glass, recommend selling call options [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper at low prices, suggest holding small long positions cautiously without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, suggest taking profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized; neutral on nickel, suggest waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggest range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggest range trading [1][9][10][11][14][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol, suggest range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommend a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy [1][19][21][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on PTA, suggest range trading; neutral on apples, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on jujubes, suggest range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on eggs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on corn, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy; bullish on soybean meal at low prices, suggest holding long positions; neutral on oils and fats, suggest a high - level adjustment strategy with a focus on the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1][38][40][42][44][46][52] Core Views - The positive results of the Sino - US talks and the positive stance of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggest that subsequent policies are worth looking forward to, and stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] - The Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment lead to a complex situation for government bonds, which are expected to fluctuate [5][6] - In the black building materials sector, the short - term supply shortage of coking coal and the low valuation of rebar support their prices, while the fundamentals of glass are deteriorating [7][8] - For non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply shortages, policy expectations, and seasonal changes affect the prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, with different trading strategies recommended for each [9][10][11][14][16][18] - In the energy and chemicals sector, factors like cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies influence the prices of various products, and most are expected to fluctuate [19][20][21][22][24][25][27][28][29] - In the cotton and textile industry chain, the supply - demand situation and market sentiment affect the prices of cotton, PTA, apples, and jujubes, with different trends expected [34][35][36] - In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality affect the prices of pigs, eggs, corn, soybean meal, and oils and fats, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [38][40][42][44][46][52] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: The Sino - US talks achieved positive results, and the 15th Five - Year Plan has a positive stance. Stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: Affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment, government bonds are expected to fluctuate [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and prices are on an upward trend. The short - term supply shortage supports the price [7] - **Rebar**: The price is at a relatively low valuation, and the demand has rebounded while the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamental situation is deteriorating, and it is recommended to sell call options for the 01 contract [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage and positive policy expectations support the price, but the high price suppresses demand. It is recommended to hold small long positions at low prices without chasing highs [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity and inventory situation are complex, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized [11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty, and the long - term supply is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15][16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and interest rate cut expectations, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term and have support in the medium term. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 4800 for the 01 contract [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract paying attention to the pressure at 2400 [21][22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply - demand situation lead to an expected range - bound movement between 6300 - 6700 [23][24] - **Rubber**: The high raw material price suppresses demand, and it is expected to fluctuate around 15000 [24][25] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1700 [25][26] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, the downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is under pressure. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2230 - 2330 [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has an increasing expectation, the demand improvement is slow, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE and PP contracts should pay attention to the support at 7000 and 6600 respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for the 01 contract [30][32] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand situation improves, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [34] - **PTA**: The oil price and supply - demand situation lead to a low - level range - bound movement between 4400 - 4700 [34][35] - **Apples**: The quality decline and cost increase support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [35] - **Jujubes**: The price is stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price change after the new season's centralized listing [36][37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is loose in the medium term, and it is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [38][39][40] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 contract and wait and watch for the 01 contract [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop's listing pressure is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The cost increase drives the price up, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the M2601 contract and pay attention to the basis trading [44][45][46] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is under pressure, but there is support below. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [46][47][52]

Group 1: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced a hearing on the anti-dumping case related to pork and pork products, scheduled for October 31, 2025, focusing on dumping, damage, and causality [1] - A preliminary ruling indicated that imported pork and pork products from the EU were found to be dumped, leading to temporary anti-dumping measures starting September 10, 2025, requiring importers to provide corresponding deposit rates to customs [1] - In 2024, China imported approximately 2.36 million tons of pork and related products, with around 1.12 million tons (47%) coming from EU member states [1] - The implementation of anti-dumping measures is expected to increase import costs, potentially reducing supply pressure on the domestic market and raising the price level of domestic pigs in the medium to long term [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Muyuan Foods, a leading pig farming enterprise, reported a significant increase in slaughter volume, reaching 11.41 million heads in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 110.87%, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.72% [2] - Zhenghong Technology, which focuses on feed products, pig farming, and feed raw material sales, is actively integrating quality profitable assets based on strategic alignment and risk control [2]

Core Points - The Ministry of Commerce's Trade Remedy Investigation Bureau has announced a hearing regarding the anti-dumping case related to pork and pork by-products [1] - The hearing is scheduled for October 31, 2025, at 9:00 AM, located at the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing [1] - The focus of the hearing will be on the preliminary ruling concerning dumping, injury, and the causal relationship between the two, excluding other matters [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has issued a definitive anti-dumping ruling against steel track shoes originating from China, imposing a 62.5% anti-dumping duty on specific products [1] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Ruling - The ruling applies to steel track shoes under the Combined Nomenclature codes 8426, 8429, or 8430, regardless of whether they are equipped with rubber pads or assembled on track chains [1] - The maximum length of the steel track shoes affected by this ruling is 3000 millimeters [1] - Additionally, the ruling includes conveyor belts classified under code 8428, which will also be subject to the same anti-dumping duty of 62.5% [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jiaao Environmental Protection Company Overview - **Company**: Jiaao Environmental Protection - **Industry**: Biofuels, specifically focusing on bio-jet fuel and biodiesel Key Points and Arguments Sales and Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, Jiaao Environmental Protection sold **105,000 tons** of bio-jet fuel, benefiting from delayed shipments from June, with an average monthly shipment of **30,000 tons** from July to September [2][3] - The price of bio-jet fuel increased from **11,500 RMB/ton** in July to over **15,000 RMB/ton** in September, with an expected price of **17,000 RMB/ton** in October (approximately **2,500 USD**) [2][5] - The company reported a net profit of **53 million RMB** in Q3 2025, with a loss of **40 million RMB** from its main business, while the bio-jet fuel segment contributed **90 million RMB** to the profits [3] Business Challenges - The biodiesel segment faced instability in orders and frequent production stoppages, leading to losses [2][6] - Funding was primarily allocated to the Lianyungang project and raw material procurement, limiting the production capacity of biodiesel [6] Market Dynamics - SaaS prices are rising due to insufficient market supply and strong demand, particularly in Europe, where production capacity is limited [2][7] - The second-generation biodiesel in China is at a disadvantage due to anti-dumping issues, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [7] Future Projections - The company anticipates that low-carbon policies, such as B24 (24% biodiesel mixed with 76% low-sulfur fuel), may help mitigate losses in the biodiesel segment in Q4 [6] - Price expectations for Q1 2026 are projected to remain high, with stability expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, but uncertainty exists for the following quarters [8] Strategic Partnerships - Jiaao Environmental Protection has a long-term cooperation agreement with BP, ensuring a stable supply chain and fixed annual supply volumes, with prices adjusted according to market conditions [13] - The company plans to increase its stake in Lianyungang Jiaao due to improved profitability [15] Project Developments - The progress of the second-phase project is contingent on domestic policies, with potential construction starting in 2026 and production in 2027 [2][9] - The investment for the second phase is expected to be significantly lower than the first phase, with reduced unit depreciation costs [10][11] Pricing Strategies - Domestic bio-jet fuel prices may adopt a guiding pricing mechanism to stabilize production, contrasting with the market-driven pricing in international markets [12] - The pricing mechanism for products like Dafu is based on average prices, which may reflect in the following month's performance due to a lag effect [16] Market Opportunities - The impact of Haike Chemical's **300,000 tons** capacity on the market is noted, with a call for China to seize the opportunity to expand supply amid European project delays [9] Additional Important Insights - The company is focused on ensuring long-term stable procurement from partners like China National Aviation Fuel, which aligns with their investment strategies [14]

Core Viewpoint - China has adopted rapid and firm countermeasures in response to a new round of trade provocations from the United States, showcasing a new strategy and rhythm in trade negotiations [1] Group 1: China's Countermeasures - The Ministry of Transport in China has introduced new regulations to impose special port fees on U.S.-flagged vessels, mirroring previous U.S. actions against Chinese vessels [1] - The Chinese government has implemented a uniform 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, marking a significant escalation in retaliatory measures [5][6] - China has also imposed export controls on seven categories of rare earth elements, emphasizing its strategic position in critical supply chains [6] Group 2: Targeted Sanctions - The Ministry of Commerce has blacklisted the South Korean company Hanwha Ocean's U.S. subsidiary for its involvement in U.S. anti-subsidy investigations against China's shipping industry, reflecting a strategy of precise targeting [3] - This approach aims to deter other third-party companies from cooperating with U.S. actions against China, signaling that such cooperation will incur costs [3] Group 3: U.S. Response and Domestic Pressure - Following China's countermeasures, the U.S. has softened its tone, expressing willingness to continue negotiations and inviting Chinese representatives for discussions, indicating domestic pressures such as inflation and consumer sensitivity to price increases [3][6] - Small businesses in the U.S. have filed lawsuits against the government, arguing that the imposition of tariffs without Congressional approval is unconstitutional [8] Group 4: Global Trade Implications - The U.S. unilateral tariff policies violate the most-favored-nation principle of the World Trade Organization, raising concerns about the global trade outlook [9][15] - China's actions reflect a mature strategy, adhering to proportionality in its countermeasures while maintaining a cautious approach compared to the U.S.'s broad tariff increases [9][11] Group 5: Industry-Specific Impacts - The semiconductor sector is particularly affected, with China initiating anti-dumping investigations into U.S. imported analog chips, which have seen a significant price drop despite increasing market share [13] - Various industries, such as electronics, textiles, and automotive, face different levels of impact from the tariffs, with some experiencing price pressures and others accelerating domestic replacements [13][16] Group 6: Long-term Strategic Shifts - The trade friction is prompting China to enhance its industrial capabilities and reduce reliance on U.S. technology, while also diversifying its export markets towards ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America [13][16] - The ongoing trade conflict is expected to reshape the global economic landscape, with the evolution of the global trade system heavily influenced by the outcomes of the U.S.-China trade negotiations [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Ranging pattern [1] - Polysilicon: Recommended to buy on dips [2] Core Viewpoints - The report presents detailed fundamental data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, etc., and also mentions relevant macro and industry news [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511 closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, with a volume of 209,588 lots and an open interest of 131,649 lots; PS2511 closed at 52,575 yuan/ton, with a volume of 266,129 lots and an open interest of 78,885 lots [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium/discount varies with different benchmarks; polysilicon's spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) is +1385 yuan/ton [2] - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9950 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 52750 yuan/ton [2] - **Profit**: Silicon plant profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2699.5 yuan/ton, and polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.0 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory is 56.2 million tons, enterprise inventory is 16.8 million tons, and polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 25.3 million tons [2] Macro and Industry News - On September 29, 2025, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued an anti - dumping affirmative final ruling on solar cells from China, recommending a 3 - year anti - dumping tax based on CIF. Different Chinese producers have different tax rates [2][4] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium - long term; Treasury bonds are advised to be kept under observation [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to be kept under observation [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to be held long on dips; Aluminum is advised to set up long positions on pullbacks; Nickel is recommended to be kept under observation or shorted on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold is to be bought on dips; Silver is for range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; Polyolefins are to have wide - range oscillations; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is for narrow - range oscillations; Apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate strongly [1][33][35][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies; Eggs are to be shorted on rallies; Corn is for wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is for low - level oscillations; Oils are expected to have limited pullbacks [1][38][40][44][45][50] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, international trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors. Different industries and varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific situations [5][8][11] Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: On October 13, the A - share market opened low and closed high. The market may oscillate, but is optimistic in the medium - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rebounded. The bond market may oscillate around the theme of Sino - US game, and it is advisable to keep under observation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend. There is an expected increase in demand for early heating, and it is for range trading [8] - **Rebar**: The price oscillated down on Monday. The static valuation is low, and the demand in October is to be focused on. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with a suggestion to go long around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but the shipment was restricted. The supply increased, and the inventory rose. The demand is weak. It is advisable to keep under observation, focusing on the changes in Shahe production lines [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by Sino - US trade relations, the price may have high - level oscillations. The long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic, and it is recommended to hold long on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite price declined, the production capacity increased steadily, the demand is in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation is normal. It is advisable to set up long positions on pullbacks [13] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to keep under observation or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US economic data and interest - rate cut expectations, they are expected to oscillate. It is advisable to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 pressure [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, the demand is increasing marginally, and it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [23][24] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is not good, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 6600 - 6900 range [24][25] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price may oscillate, with a focus on the 15,000 support [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on factors such as compound fertilizer production and exports [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and it is expected to oscillate [30] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The PE 2601 and PP 2601 contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the 6900 and 6600 supports respectively [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak after the festival, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and there is uncertainty in Sino - US relations. The market may oscillate with a bearish expectation [33][34] - **PTA**: The crude oil price is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the PTA is accumulating inventory. It is for narrow - range oscillations in the 4500 - 4750 range [34][35] - **Apples**: Affected by weather, the supply time of red apples is postponed. The quality is lower, and the price may oscillate strongly [35][36] - **Jujubes**: The sales during the National Day were flat. The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested, and the price may oscillate strongly [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and the supply is large in the medium - long term. Different contracts have different strategies, such as reducing short positions for the 11 contract and short - selling for the 01, 03, 05 contracts in the long - term [38][39] - **Eggs**: The demand is weak after the festival, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term price may oscillate at a low level. The 11 - contract short positions can be partially closed, and the 12 and 01 contracts are to wait for rallies to short - sell [40][41][42] - **Corn**: The new corn is on the market, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The demand is weak, and the price may oscillate. The 11 - contract is for a short - selling strategy, and an attention is to be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the harvest pressure and slow exports of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, focusing on the support of 2900 - 2930 for the M2601 contract [45] - **Oils**: The short - term pullback is limited. The 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil should focus on the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively, with a strategy of going long after the pullback [50]