Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 15% [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects the bank's strategy to control inflation and stabilize the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, citing economic fluctuations due to trade issues and tariffs [1] Economic Growth and Forecast - Canada experienced strong economic growth in the first quarter due to preemptive exports related to tariff issues, but the GDP is expected to decline by approximately 1.5% in the second quarter [1] - The decline is attributed to a sharp reversal in exports following the initial surge and decreased demand for Canadian goods from the U.S. due to tariff threats [1] - Economic indicators suggest an increasing surplus in the Canadian economy since January [1] Trade Policy and Economic Outlook - Despite recent clarity in U.S. trade policies, the unpredictability of U.S. trade actions and ongoing trade negotiations remain a concern [1] - The Bank of Canada forecasts that under current tariff conditions, economic growth will rebound to about 1% in the second half of the year, with continued economic weakness expected until 2026 [1] - A quicker rebound in economic growth is anticipated if tariff issues are alleviated, while an escalation of these issues could lead to continued economic contraction within the year [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Canada previously lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in March and has kept it unchanged in April and June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, citing economic fluctuations due to trade issues and tariffs [1] Economic Performance - Canada experienced strong economic growth in the first quarter due to preemptive exports related to tariff issues, but the GDP is expected to decline by approximately 1.5% in the second quarter [1] - The decline is attributed to a sharp reversal in exports following the initial surge and decreased demand for Canadian goods from the U.S. due to tariff threats [1] - Economic indicators suggest an increasing surplus in the Canadian economy since January [1] Trade Policy and Forecast - Despite recent clarity in U.S. trade policies, the unpredictability of U.S. trade actions and ongoing trade negotiations remain a concern, with new industry tariff threats persisting [1] - The Bank of Canada forecasts that under current tariff conditions, economic growth will rebound to about 1% in the second half of the year, supported by stabilizing exports and gradual increases in household spending [1] - However, economic weakness is expected to continue until 2026, with potential for faster growth if tariff issues are resolved or further contraction if they escalate [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Canada previously lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in March, maintaining this rate in April and June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18%, marking the second rate cut since June 2023, aligning with market expectations [1][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - On July 25, the Central Bank of Russia announced a reduction of the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18%, which was anticipated by the market [1]. - This decision follows a previous rate cut in June, where the rate was reduced by 100 basis points [5]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Central Bank's statement indicated that inflation pressures are decreasing faster than expected, with the seasonally adjusted annualized price growth rate dropping from 8.2% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q2, and core inflation falling from 8.8% to 4.5% [4]. - The bank projects inflation to decline to 6.0% - 7.0% by 2025 and return to the target level of 4.0% in 2026 [4]. - Despite the downward trend in inflation, long-term inflation expectations remain high, posing a risk to sustainable inflation reduction [4]. External Environment and Economic Predictions - The Central Bank has revised its oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026 down to $55 per barrel, citing trade frictions among major economies and increased supply from OPEC+ [4]. - Consequently, the bank has also slightly lowered its forecasts for exports and current account surplus for the next two years [4]. Currency and Monetary Policy - The statement highlighted that the ruble's exchange rate is influenced by both current account flows and capital account factors, with high interest rates maintaining the attractiveness of ruble assets [5]. - The Central Bank aims to ensure that inflation sustainably returns to 4% by maintaining a tight monetary policy when necessary [5]. Future Rate Expectations - Analysts predict that the Central Bank will continue to gradually lower the benchmark interest rate by 100 to 200 basis points at each policy meeting, targeting a rate of 14% by the end of the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Liberia has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 17.25% to stabilize the economy and control inflation [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects the bank's strategy to manage economic stability [1] - The current rate of 17.25% indicates a cautious approach in response to economic conditions [1] - This rate has implications for borrowing costs and investment decisions within the country [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance scale of floating - rate bonds in China has shown a fluctuating upward trend in the past 30 years, with significant shrinkage in the past three years. The benchmark interest rate has changed from single to diverse, and the dominant bond varieties have alternated between policy - bank bonds and asset - backed securities. The issuance term has evolved from high concentration to dispersion and then back to concentration [29][35][45]. - The valuation of floating - rate bonds is based on the discounted cash flow method (DCF). The key difficulties lie in predicting future coupon payments and selecting the discount rate. The change in the benchmark interest rate and the term spread △y can affect the value of floating - rate bonds [106][109][144]. - Floating - rate bonds are more resistant to decline in a bear market but weaker in a bull market compared to fixed - rate bonds. The absolute value change of floating - rate bonds is complex, and its value is affected by the relative changes of the benchmark interest rate and the market interest rate [161][168][197]. - Based on the analysis of the cash - flow simulation of floating - rate bonds, the market implies that the 1 - year LPR will decline steadily in the next two years and then rise. The floating - rate bonds of China Development Bank imply a stronger expectation of interest - rate cuts than those of Agricultural Development Bank [319][339]. - Considering the expected interest - rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [353][356]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Floating - Rate Bond Historical Changes and Current Situation - **Historical Changes** - **Issuance Scale**: It has experienced three rounds of expansion and adjustment in the past 30 years. The first round (1995 - 2002) was an exploration period with the first breakthrough to the 10 - billion - level. The second round (2003 - 2013) was a consolidation period with the scale reaching 50 - billion - level. The third round (2014 - 2024) was a mature and fluctuating period with the peak exceeding 60 - billion - level, but it has shrunk significantly in the past three years [35][37]. - **Benchmark Interest Rate**: It has changed from a single 1 - year fixed - deposit interest rate to a diverse range, including 7 - day repo rate average, LIBOR, SHIBOR, LPR, etc. Currently, LPR and DR series have become the mainstream [41][45][48]. - **Bond Varieties**: Policy - bank bonds and asset - backed securities have alternately dominated. Policy - bank bonds were dominant in the early stage, and asset - backed securities took the lead in 2014. Since 2022, policy - bank bonds have regained the dominant position [50][60][61]. - **Issuance Term**: It has evolved from high concentration in the 7 - 10 - year term to dispersion and then back to concentration in the 2 - 3 - year term [65][71][72]. - **Current Situation** - As of the end of 2024, the stock of floating - rate bonds in China was 50.08 billion yuan, accounting for 0.3% of the total bond balance. The top three in terms of bond varieties are policy - bank bonds, ABS, and non - financial corporate credit bonds. The top three in terms of benchmark interest rates are 1 - year LPR, DR007, and 5 - year LPR [78]. 2. Floating - Rate Bond Valuation Method - **Valuation Principle and Theoretical Calculation Method**: It is based on the DCF method. The key is to predict future coupon payments and select the discount rate. The China Foreign Exchange Trade System has a specific valuation formula for non - option - embedded and non - early - repayment floating - rate bonds. However, the simple model does not reflect the market's expectation of future interest rates [106][112][116]. - **Analysis of Factors Affecting Investment Value**: The change in the benchmark interest rate can affect the value of floating - rate bonds. Generally, an increase in the benchmark interest rate leads to a decline in bond value, and vice versa. The impact is greater when the valuation date is farther from the reset date. The term spread △y also affects the bond value, and its impact needs to be considered in combination with the benchmark interest rate [120][139][144]. 3. Relative Value Assessment of Floating - Rate Bonds (Based on Historical Backtracking) - Floating - rate bonds are more resistant to decline in a bear market but weaker in a bull market compared to fixed - rate bonds. In a rising - interest - rate environment, the price decline of floating - rate bonds is smaller than that of fixed - rate bonds. In a falling - interest - rate environment, the performance of fixed - rate bonds is better [161][162][180]. 4. Absolute Value Assessment of Floating - Rate Bonds (Based on Historical Backtracking) - The absolute value change of floating - rate bonds is complex. By observing the historical trends of two floating - rate bonds with DR007 as the benchmark interest rate, it is found that when the benchmark interest rate and the market interest rate change in opposite directions, the value change direction of floating - rate bonds is clear; when they move in the same direction, the value change direction cannot be determined; when they are flat, the value center is stable [197][269][271]. 5. Future Interest - Rate Cut Path Implied by Current Floating - Rate Bonds - By simulating the cash flows of three actively traded floating - rate bonds of Agricultural Development Bank, it is inferred that the 1 - year LPR will decline steadily in the next two years and then rise. The floating - rate bonds of China Development Bank imply a stronger expectation of interest - rate cuts and a faster interest - rate cut speed than those of Agricultural Development Bank [319][339]. 6. Consideration of Floating - Rate Bond Investment Value - Considering the expected interest - rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds. For DR007 floating - rate bonds, the decline of DR007 may compress the coupon income, and different interest - rate cut scenarios will affect the capital gains of floating - rate bonds [353][356][362].

7月22日，匈牙利央行宣布将基准利率维持在6.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the upcoming policy meeting, as officials wish to observe the impacts of US-Japan trade negotiations and domestic political changes on fiscal policy before taking further action [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan's policy committee, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, is expected to decide to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% [1]. - Officials believe that the recent electoral defeat of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will have minimal impact on the central bank's gradual rate hike stance [1][5]. - The decision to pause rate hikes is influenced by ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations, with officials wanting to assess the potential effects of any trade agreements on inflation and the economy [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan officials consider it appropriate to continue raising the benchmark interest rate if the economic outlook aligns with expectations, but they require more time to evaluate external and internal uncertainties [5]. - Despite the ruling coalition losing its majority in the upper house elections, this has not immediately altered the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory [5]. - The central bank is closely monitoring the government's fiscal policy direction, which may be influenced by the election results [5]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - There is an increasing risk of upward inflation pressure, primarily due to rising prices of rice and other food-related items, which have exceeded the central bank's expectations [5]. - Some central bank officials believe that if the government significantly loosens fiscal policy, it will be necessary to monitor its potential upward impact on inflation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its benchmark interest rate unchanged next week, indicating that the upcoming elections will have little impact on its monetary policy stance [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to keep the interest rate steady reflects its assessment of the current economic conditions [1] - The central bank believes that the elections will not significantly influence its interest rate policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate next week, indicating that the upcoming elections will have little impact on its monetary policy stance [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan plans to observe the effects of trade negotiations before making any decisions on interest rate hikes [1] - There is a concern that significant fiscal easing could lead to upward risks in prices [1]