今天分享的是：2025贸易摩擦与资产配置逻辑：财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦 报告共计：25页 2025贸易摩擦透视：关税政策背后的多方角力与全球影响 当前，全球贸易格局正被一场围绕关税政策的复杂博弈所牵动。美国特朗普政府推行的关税政策不仅是其贸易策略的核心，更 深度纠缠于财政平衡、司法争议、货币政策及国际博弈之中，其走向正深刻影响着全球经济的节奏。 关税：特朗普经济政策的"平衡支点" 在特朗普政府的经济框架中，关税政策扮演着特殊角色——它既是贸易保护的工具，也是财政平衡的"调节器"。其核心逻辑是 通过"国内减税、国外加税"的税负转嫁策略，在维持国内减税政策的同时，试图通过关税收入弥补财政缺口。 这一策略的关键载体是"大而美"法案（OBBBA）。政府宣称，该法案通过削减支出和新增关税，能在10年内减少数万亿美元赤 字；但美国国会预算办公室（CBO）却持相反观点，认为法案会扩大赤字。争议的焦点在于基线设定：白宫以"现有政策"为基 准，强调法案的减赤效果；而CBO以"现有法律"为基准，认为法案会加剧赤字。这种分歧凸显了关税对特朗普财政计划的重要 性——若没有关税带来的额外收入，减税政策可能导致赤字大幅扩张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump has deteriorated significantly, leading Musk to announce the formation of a new political party in response to Trump's policies and actions [1]. Group 1: Relationship Dynamics - On June 11, Musk expressed regret over his previous comments about Trump, indicating a potential thaw in their relationship, while Trump stated reconciliation was not a priority [1]. - By June 29, Musk criticized Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill as "extremely crazy and destructive," and called for the establishment of a new political party, threatening to financially support efforts to overturn the bill's supporters [1]. - On July 1, Trump threatened to review the subsidies Musk received, to which Musk responded that he would prefer to have them all cut off immediately [1]. Group 2: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, which Trump signed on July 4, is viewed by Musk as a catalyst for potential national bankruptcy due to increasing deficits [1]. - Following the bill's passage, Musk announced the formation of the "American Party" on July 5, aligning this move with his criticism of the bill's implications for the country [1].

当地时间7月5日，美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称，"美国党"于当日成立，以还给人 民自由。 近期，马斯克与美国总统特朗普就"大而美"税收和支出法案产生分歧。6月30日，马斯克猛批特朗普力 推的所谓"大而美"税收和支出法案并表示，如果法案通过，第二天就会成立"美国党"。当地时间7月4 日，美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，使其生效。法案签署成法的几个小时前，马斯克再 次在社交平台上发布有关建立新党派"美国党"的投票。在收到的约124.9万网络投票中，65.4%的网民支 持成立新党。 据了解，马斯克于6月5日首次提出这一想法。 不满"大而美" 马斯克"独立日"再提成立美国新政党 针对亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克近日连发帖文炮轰"大而美"税收和支出法案，美国总统特朗普当地时间1日表 态，称可能会考虑"将马斯克驱逐出境"。 特朗普说，美国政府效率部应该好好调查一下马斯克经营的特斯拉和美国太空探索技术公司所获政府补 贴的情况。 据央视新闻报道，在美国总统特朗普7月4日将"大而美"法案签署成法的几个小时前，特朗普的前盟友、 企业家埃隆·马斯克通过社交平台发起了一项关于成立美国新政党的投票。 独立日这天正 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月5日，美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称，"美 国党"于当日成立，以还给人民自由。 图源/ 央视新闻 此前，国际货币基金组织发言人表示，美国特朗普政府的税收与支出法案会进一步扩大美国 的财政赤字。这与该组织关于美国应在中期内降低财政赤字的建议背道而驰。 来源：央视新闻 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年初重返白宫后推出的标志性立法议程。 该法案主要内容包括延 长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企业和个人减税措施，让小费和加班工资收入免 于纳税等，其核心条款是降低企业税。 该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及大企业减税等而备受争议。 据央视新闻援引《纽约时报》指出， 这一法案使美国走上新的、更危险的财政道路。 初步分 析显示，该法案不仅会在未来10年使美国赤字增加约3.3万亿美元，还会减少国家几十年内的 税收收入。此种缺口可能会导致美国的财政轨迹开始发生翻天覆地的变化，并加剧债务危机 的担忧。 图源/ 央视新闻 为了抗议这项大规模税收与支出法案，众议院少数党领袖、民主党众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯7月 3日行使了允许无限辩论的领袖特权，在众议院进行了创纪录的8 ...

当地时间7月5日，美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称，"美国党"于当日成立，以还给人民自由。 近期，马斯克与美国总统特朗普就"大而美"税收和支出法案产生分歧。6月30日，马斯克猛批特朗普力推的所谓"大而美"税收和支出法案并表示，如果法案 通过，第二天就会成立"美国党"。当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，使其生效。法案签署成法的几个小时前，马斯克再次在 社交平台上发布有关建立新党派"美国党"的投票。在收到的约124.9万网络投票中，65.4%的网民支持成立新党。 据了解，马斯克于6月5日首次提出这一想法。 不满"大而美" 马斯克"独立日"再提成立美国新政党 据央视新闻报道，在美国总统特朗普7月4日将"大而美"法案签署成法的几个小时前，特朗普的前盟友、企业家埃隆·马斯克通过社交平台发起了一项关于成 立美国新政党的投票。 独立日这天正好问问大家：你们是否想从两党制（有人会说这是"同一政党"）中独立出来？我们要不要创立一个"美国党"？ 当地时间7月4日，马斯克再次在社交平台上发布有关建立新党派"美国党"的投票。截至目前，已经有 超过108万个账号 参与投票，其中 64.4%选择 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk announced the establishment of a new political party called "American Party" in response to the recently signed "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill by President Trump, which he criticized for exacerbating fiscal deficits and benefiting the wealthy [1][4][6]. Group 1: Formation of the American Party - Musk initiated a poll on social media regarding the creation of the "American Party," receiving over 1.24 million votes, with 65.4% in favor of its establishment [1][3]. - The idea of forming a new party was first proposed by Musk on June 5, with a previous poll showing over 80% support for creating a party that represents centrist views [2][3]. Group 2: Criticism of the "Big and Beautiful" Bill - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, signed into law on July 4, is criticized for potentially increasing the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade and reducing tax revenues significantly [6]. - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, which has led to concerns about its impact on federal assistance and long-term debt [6]. Group 3: Political Reactions - Musk's criticism of the bill has led to a public dispute with Trump, who defended the bill and criticized Musk's reliance on government subsidies for his businesses [5][6]. - The bill's passage has sparked significant debate in Congress, with Democratic leaders highlighting its negative effects on vulnerable populations [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing at least a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the U.S. [1] - The U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva have made significant progress, establishing a trade negotiation mechanism [1] - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy has led to a rise in tariffs on various trade partners, with tariffs on Chinese goods peaking at 145% [3] Group 2 - The ongoing trade war has caused significant volatility in global stock markets and has severely impacted U.S.-China economic relations [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the government's cash reserves and debt control measures may be exhausted by August [3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has resulted in increased consumer price index (CPI) growth, affecting households across different income levels [3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's stance appears to soften, with indications of a potential agreement with China, and a reduction in tariffs from 30% to 10% on Chinese goods [5] - Despite some concessions, the U.S. government continues to take actions that complicate U.S.-China relations, such as restricting funding for collaborations with Chinese universities [5][8] - Elon Musk has criticized the Trump administration's proposed "big and beautiful" bill, warning it could lead to significant job losses and strategic damage to the U.S. [6] Group 4 - The current state of U.S.-China trade relations shows signs of easing, but uncertainties remain regarding the sincerity of the U.S. government's intentions [8] - Musk's comments reflect the broader challenges and potential risks associated with U.S. trade policies [8][9] - The future trajectory of U.S.-China trade relations remains unpredictable, with global stakeholders closely monitoring developments [9]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around Elon Musk's proposal to establish a new political party called the "American Party," which aims to represent the centrist majority in the U.S. This proposal gained significant traction, with over 1.08 million accounts participating in a poll, where 64.4% voted in favor of its creation [1] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, signed by President Trump, is a key legislative agenda that extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals, and includes provisions such as exempting tips and overtime pay from taxation [4] - The bill has faced criticism for potentially exacerbating the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt risks, with estimates suggesting it could increase the deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [5] Group 2 - Musk has publicly criticized the "Big and Beautiful" bill, suggesting that those who support it should feel ashamed, and indicated that he would establish the "American Party" if the bill passed [2] - The bill has been labeled as a "transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich," raising concerns about its impact on federal assistance and long-term debt [5] - The International Monetary Fund has expressed that the tax and spending bill would further widen the U.S. fiscal deficit, contradicting its recommendations for the U.S. to reduce deficits in the medium term [5]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed by President Trump, aims to extend tax cuts for corporations and individuals, with a significant focus on reducing corporate taxes [3] - The Act is projected to incur over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next decade, with an increase in the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion and a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling [3] - Critics argue that the Act disproportionately benefits high-income individuals and corporations while cutting social welfare programs, leading to significant reductions in healthcare coverage for low-income Americans [5][6] Group 2 - The Act represents a dramatic shift in U.S. economic and fiscal policy compared to the Biden administration, reversing many of the social welfare expansions and clean energy initiatives [5] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that nearly 12 million people could lose their healthcare coverage as a result of the new law [6] - Discussions among financial analysts suggest that the expansion of the fiscal deficit may support economic stability in the short term, while also raising concerns about long-term debt sustainability [9]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed by President Trump, aims to extend tax cuts and includes various provisions affecting multiple industries, while also raising concerns about long-term fiscal implications and increasing federal deficits [1][2]. Winners - **Chip Manufacturers**: The Act increases tax credits for chip manufacturers building new factories in the U.S. from 25% to 35%, incentivizing domestic production [3]. - **Energy Companies**: The Act reopens oil and gas leasing auctions and lowers royalty rates, benefiting oil and gas producers [5]. - **Airlines**: A $12.5 billion fund is allocated for modernizing air traffic control systems, which is supported by airline executives [6]. - **Real Estate Developers**: The Act expands tax incentives for commercial real estate investors, including a 12% increase in low-income housing tax credits [7]. - **Defense Contractors**: The Pentagon plans to invest approximately $150 billion over five years in defense projects, benefiting companies like Lockheed Martin [8]. - **Private Student Loan Institutions**: Changes in federal student loan limits may drive more students to private lenders like SoFi [9]. - **Manufacturers**: The Act provides tax deductions for manufacturing costs for factories that begin operations after January 19, 2025 [10]. Losers - **Electric Vehicle Manufacturers**: The Act terminates subsidies for electric vehicle purchases, posing challenges for companies like Tesla and Ford [12]. - **Solar and Wind Energy Companies**: The expiration of specific tax credits for renewable energy projects may lead to a decline in orders and customer retention [13]. - **AI Companies**: The removal of a provision to pause state-level AI regulations may hinder innovation in the sector [13]. - **Certain Colleges**: A new tiered tax rate on investment income for private colleges may negatively impact prestigious institutions like Harvard and Yale [14]. - **Food Companies**: Cuts to the SNAP program could lead to decreased sales for major food companies reliant on SNAP beneficiaries [15]. - **Logistics Companies**: The elimination of tax exemptions for small packages may reduce demand for shipping services from companies like FedEx and UPS [16].