1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Newly harvested cotton in Xinjiang has faster picking and selling progress than last year, but recent cold and snowy weather in the production area will slow down the picking progress. The current mainstream price of new cotton is around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the cost still has overall support. The spinning mills' operating rate remains low, and the peak season continues to be weak. It is expected that the enthusiasm for restocking by spinning mills will be low in the later period. Overall, the centralized acquisition and processing of cotton in the new season bring a large number of hedging needs, with significant upward pressure and cost support below. It is expected that cotton prices will fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,540 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,775 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 107,544 lots, down 10,544 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 262 lots, down 60 lots. The main - contract position of cotton is 593,229 lots, up 231 lots; the main - contract position of cotton yarn is 23,282 lots, up 1,127 lots. The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 2,579, down 19; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,052 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 14,007 yuan/ton. The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,200 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,466 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,742 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged. The daily profit of imported cotton is 672 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, up 10 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.4145904 billion US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2393202 billion US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 8.28%, up 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 8.33%, up 0.11%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.29%, up 0.99%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.93%, up 0.29% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 177,200 tons of cotton in the first three weeks of October, with a daily average export volume of 13,600 tons, a 7% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 12,770 tons in October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 280,900 tons. The ICE cotton futures fell slightly on Monday. The December cotton futures contract on ICE closed down 0.12 cents, or 0.19%, at 64.16 cents per pound [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market's commercial inventory has dropped to a low level compared to the same period. Xinjiang's seed cotton purchase price has slightly increased, with machine - picked cotton around 3.0 yuan per catty and hand - picked cotton around 3.50 yuan per catty. New cotton is gradually coming to the market, and the new year's harvest is obvious, leading to increasing supply - side pressure. On the demand side, textile mill orders have not improved significantly, the operating rate is still lower than last year, and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season in the downstream has not emerged. It is recommended to keep a wait - and - see attitude for now and pay attention to the new cotton purchase price [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,270 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 74,836 hands, down 8,212 hands; the main contract's cotton position is 580,856 hands, up 12,867 hands; cotton's warehouse receipt quantity is 2,773 sheets, down 50 sheets. The main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 19,325 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 506 hands, up 54 hands; the main contract's cotton yarn position is 18,204 hands, up 1,792 hands; cotton yarn's warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 12,808 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 14,674 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,856 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 21,224 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 22,491 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,766 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the daily import cotton profit is 889 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days; the monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.4145904 billion US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns and fabrics is 1.2393202 billion US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 9.06%, down 0.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 9.06%, down 0.65%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.98%, down 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.77%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of October 9, the yarn inventory of major textile enterprises decreased, mainly due to accelerated pre - holiday shipments and a reduction in the operating rate of textile enterprises. The inventory of large factories in Xinjiang is about 35 days, and that of inland enterprises is 10 - 15 days. ICE cotton futures declined slightly on Tuesday due to weakening global cotton demand expectations [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market has low commercial inventory, but the new - year harvest is significant, increasing supply pressure. The demand side shows no obvious improvement in textile factory orders, with the operating rate lower than the same period last year, and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season did not occur. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to post - holiday restocking and the listing rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 13,265 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closed at 19,290 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 66,624 lots, up 551 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 560 lots, down 214 lots. - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 567,989 lots, up 4,581 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 16,412 lots, up 2,780 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 2,823, down 44; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the landed price of imported cotton yarn (pure - combed 32 - count) was 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China's imported cotton price index (sliding - scale duty) was 13,866 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the landed price of imported cotton yarn (pure - combed 32 - count) was 22,524 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,685 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 903 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 9.72%, up 0.95%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 9.71%, up 0.98%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.29%, down 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.76%, unchanged [2] Industry News - In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 221.6863 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. - The ICE cotton futures closed down on Monday due to lingering demand concerns caused by trade tensions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the domestic cotton market is gradually increasing as new cotton is being listed and the new season shows a significant bumper harvest. Meanwhile, the demand side has not improved significantly, with textile mills' orders not showing obvious improvement and the operating rate lower than the same period last year. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has not emerged. It is expected that the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures will be weak after the holiday [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,295 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 19,545 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 37,086 lots, down 4,866 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 106 lots, down 41 lots [2] - The main contract holding volume of cotton is 550,497 lots, up 15,043 lots; the main contract holding volume of cotton yarn is 3,221 lots, down 687 lots [2] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 3,030, down 51; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,739 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,530 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,146 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,311 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax) is 14,068 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count combed cotton yarn is 22,497 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,791 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] - The daily profit of imported cotton is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.17%, up 0.5%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.17%, up 0.5% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.51%, up 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.65%, up 0.26% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In October, the temperature in southern Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton - growing areas is expected to be higher and precipitation lower, which is conducive to cotton boll opening and harvesting; the northern Xinjiang cotton - growing area may experience low - temperature and frost due to cold air, which is not conducive to cotton harvesting and drying; most of the Yellow River Basin cotton - growing areas will have normal temperature but more precipitation, which may cause continuous rainy weather, affecting cotton boll opening and picking and reducing cotton quality [2]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report anticipates that the cotton price will continue to be weak in the later period, and suggests a short - term bearish approach [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract is 13,350 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 19,495 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 20,406 lots, an increase of 1,066 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 167 lots, a decrease of 47 lots [2]. - The position volume of the main cotton contract is 530,559 lots, a decrease of 4,260 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract is 5,258 lots, a decrease of 1,382 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 3,173, a decrease of 224; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,953 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index of pure - combed cotton 32 - count yarn is 20,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,301 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed cotton 32 - count yarn is 21,380 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 14,158 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed cotton 32 - count combed yarn is 22,650 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,627 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily import cotton profit is 899 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, a decrease of 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, a decrease of 1.31 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, an increase of 10 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, an increase of 36,400 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1414.5904 million US dollars, a decrease of 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1239.3202 million US dollars, an increase of 78.9193 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for cotton is 13.26%, an increase of 2.61%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for cotton is 13.26%, an increase of 2.64% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.92%, a decrease of 1.64%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.29%, an increase of 0.07% [2]. Industry News - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 69,367 lots, a decrease of 751 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 114,787 lots, an increase of 2,020 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 45,420 lots, an increase of 2,771 lots from the previous week [2]. - As of September 23, about 49% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 41% the previous week [2]. - From September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton for the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks; the export shipment volume was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week and a 6% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2]. View Summary - In China, cotton harvesting has started in northern Xinjiang, with a strong expectation of increased production. The purchase price of seed cotton has decreased, and the downstream textile enterprises are not enthusiastic about restocking, mostly adopting a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [2]. - The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the continuous accumulation of cotton yarn inventory has further pressured the market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] Core Viewpoints - The new cotton season shows a significant increase in production, with the expected total cotton output in 2025 reaching 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% and an upward adjustment of 32.1 million tons from the previous period, hitting a new high since 2013. With only a small amount of new cotton on the market and the lack of a peak season in the downstream, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,780 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 23,381 lots, an increase of 1,105 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 87 lots, an increase of 134 lots. The main contract positions for cotton are 525,141 lots, down 3,151 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 9,561 lots, down 2,220 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 3,583 sheets, down 133 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,336 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,181 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,615 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,464 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; for imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn, it is 22,652 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 million tons, an increase of 54 million tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,532 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 87 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 7 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The daily import cotton profit is 881 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.17 million tons, down 70.81 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, an increase of 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 202.79 million tons, an increase of 3.64 million tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,414,590.4 million US dollars, down 101,585.5 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,239,320.2 million US dollars, up 78,919.3 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.95%, down 1.49%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.95%, down 1.49%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.29%, up 0.26%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.17%, down 0.01% [2] Industry News - As of September 18, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 66.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%, but the recovery of the operating rate has slowed down. Although it is the peak season, the downstream orders have limited growth. Most inland textile enterprises maintain a balance between procurement and sales, with an operating rate of 50% - 60% in inland areas and about 90% in Xinjiang. ICE cotton futures closed down on Wednesday, pressured by the strengthening US dollar [2] Viewpoint Summary - The 2025 national cotton is expected to have a total output of 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, hitting a new high since 2013. With a small amount of new cotton on the market and the lack of a peak season in the downstream, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] 2. Core View of the Report - With a small amount of new cotton on the market, a significant increase in production in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened. Therefore, short - term operations are recommended to be bearish [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,555, up 15; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 24,486, down 5,549; main contract open interest for cotton (daily, lots): 528,292, down 4,509; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 3,716, down 199 - Cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,860, up 200; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 47, up 121; main contract open interest for cotton yarn (daily, lots): 11,781, down 2,500; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,062, down 71; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,336, up 69; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty (daily, yuan/ton): 14,181, up 34 - China Yarn Price Index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 20,615, unchanged; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,442, up 10; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton combed yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 22,628, up 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 616, up 54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,553, up 71; industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 87, up 1.3 - Cotton import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 7, up 2; cotton yarn import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 130,000, up 20,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 986, down 86; commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 148.17, down 70.81 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 26.58, down 0.65; inventory days of grey cloth (monthly, days): 33.87, down 1.31 - Cloth production: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 27.01, up 0.01; yarn production: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 202.79, up 3.64 - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,414,590.4, down 101,585.5; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,239,320.2, up 78,919.3 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.04; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.03 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 9.03, up 0.09; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 7.18, up 0.17 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of September 19, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.1426 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1292 million tons (a decrease of 10.16%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 0.5646 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0852 million tons (a decrease of 13.11%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 0.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0395 million tons (a decrease of 11.92%) - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose on Tuesday, ending a four - day losing streak, driven by strong demand. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.42 cents, or 0.50%, to settle at 66.64 cents per pound [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton grower branch surveyed the cotton growth situation and the second - estimated output of 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provincial - level regions and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The survey shows that the national estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, an upward adjustment of 0.321 million tons from the previous period, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the support for cotton prices is weakening due to the small - scale listing of new cotton, significant production increase in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish stance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,540 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,660 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 18,937 lots, up 1,458 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 168 lots, up 299 lots [2] - Cotton main contract open interest: 532,801 lots, up 10,524 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 14,281 lots, down 1,753 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 3,915 lots, down 181 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 0 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,133 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,615 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,267 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,147 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,432 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,618 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,482 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] - Cotton import volume: 70 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons [2] - Imported cotton profit: 1,072 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 14817 thousand tons, down 7081 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.58 days, down 0.65 days;坯布 inventory days: 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - Cloth production: 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; yarn production: 20279 thousand tons, up 364 thousand tons [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 1414590.4 million US dollars, down 101585.5 million US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 1239320.2 million US dollars, up 78919.3 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton: 11.48%, down 0.35%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton: 11.47%, down 0.33% [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.94%, down 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.02%, up 0.06% [2] Industry News - As of September 16, 2025, non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,118 lots, down 53 lots from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 112,767 lots, down 8,738 lots; net short positions were 42,649 lots, down 8,685 lots [2] - In August 2025, the survey by the Cotton Growers Branch of the China Cotton Association showed that the national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and the national cotton output was expected to be 7216 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, 321 thousand tons higher than the previous forecast, reaching a new high since 2013 [2] - ICE cotton futures were stable on Monday after hitting a more than two - week low. The December cotton futures contract fell 0.07 cents, or 0.09%, to settle at 66.22 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton investment [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - New cotton has started to be available in small quantities, with a significant increase in production in the new season. Given the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 13,610 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closed at 19,675 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,395 lots, down 804 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 467 lots, up 10 lots [2] - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 522,277 lots, up 13,028 lots; for cotton yarn, it was 16,034 lots, down 1,410 lots [2] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 4,096, down 136; for cotton yarn, it was 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,224 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,705 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,284 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the FCIndexM with sliding - scale duty was 14,152 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2] - The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,433 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn, it was 22,703 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,481 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton was 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; for cotton yarn, it was 110 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The profit from importing cotton was 1,059 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 1481.7 thousand tons, down 708.1 thousand tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the坯布 inventory days were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - The monthly cloth output was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2027.9 thousand tons, up 36.4 thousand tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1414.59 million US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it was 1239.32 million US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 11.83%, up 0.37%; for at - the - money put options, it was 11.8%, up 0.35% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.14%, down 1.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.96%, down 0.25% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton farmers' branch surveyed 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provinces and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The national cotton sown area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [2] - As of the week ending September 16, about 41% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 32% the previous week [2] - From September 5 - 11, 2025, the net export signing volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 42.2 thousand tons, a 44% increase from the previous week and a 13% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. China signed to import 998 tons [2] - The shipment volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 27.3 thousand tons, an 8% decrease from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [2] - The survey showed that the national cotton output in 2025 was expected to be 7216 thousand tons, an 8.3% year - on - year increase, 321 thousand tons higher than the previous forecast, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase, while the estimated ending inventory will decrease, which is relatively bullish for the cotton market [2] - In the domestic market, inventory remains low, market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinners' operating rates remain low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,910 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 34,624 lots, up 325 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 390 lots, down 218 lots [2] - The main contract holdings of cotton are 491,292 lots, down 1,339 lots; the main contract holdings of cotton yarn are 19,602 lots, down 680 lots [2] - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 4,615 sheets, down 144 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 87 sheets, down 2 sheets [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,775 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,388 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,419 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,224 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,771 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,465 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The daily import cotton profit is 1,076 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1481.7 thousand tons, down 708.1 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days [2] - The monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1991.5 thousand tons, down 73.5 thousand tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 11.97%, up 0.91%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 11.96%, up 0.87% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.6%, down 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.12%, up 0.07% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 52%, compared with 54% the previous week and 39% the same period last year [2] - ICE cotton futures rose on Tuesday due to the falling US dollar exchange rate. The December ICE cotton futures contract rose 0.84 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at 67.68 cents per pound [2] - The USDA's September global cotton supply - and - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is 25.622 million tons, up 231 thousand tons from last month; global consumption is up 183 thousand tons to 25.872 million tons; and global ending inventory is down 168 thousand tons to 15.924 million tons [2]