Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and some spinning enterprises in a state of inventory accumulation and poor profitability, which affects raw material procurement willingness [2]. - Cotton is in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking speed is slow due to the off - season. The market is generally oscillating slightly stronger, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,805 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 30,048 lots, a decrease of 2,088 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 269 lots, a decrease of 59 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton is 560,465 lots, a decrease of 2,771 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 22,405 lots, an increase of 382 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 10,190, a decrease of 21; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 2, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,163 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,688 yuan/ton, down 221 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,925 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 14,409 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,714 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,257 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 826,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 803 yuan/ton, an increase of 210 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773,700 US dollars, an increase of 197,117,900 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177,300 US dollars, an increase of 5,210,900 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.37%, a decrease of 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.8%, a decrease of 0.02% [2]. Industry News - As of the week ending June 29, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, compared with 47% the previous week and 50% in the same period last year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US in 2025 is 10.12 million acres, higher than the previous market forecast of 9.735 million acres. The actual cotton planting area in the US in 2024 was 11.183 million acres [2].

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-30 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 但是消费淡季导致去库存速度缓慢，整体震荡略偏强，持续关注天气和宏观因素。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13740 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19990 | -115 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -33777 | 2608 棉纱期货前20名净持仓( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's growth report shows that as of the week ending June 22, 2025, the U.S. cotton good-to-excellent rate was 47%, down from 48% the previous week and 56% in the same period over the past three years. The decline in the good-to-excellent rate, unfavorable weather in the production areas in the coming days, and the spill - over effect of the rebound in crude oil prices have boosted the U.S. cotton futures market [2]. - Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season. Enterprises have poor performance in new orders, with limited overall growth in summer orders. Orders are mostly short - term and small, and some enterprises have reduced shifts and lowered the overall operating rate. Some spinning enterprises are in a state of inventory accumulation, with poor profit margins, which affects their raw material procurement. The old - crop fundamentals change little, and short - term prices are volatile. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang, and attention should be paid to the impact of the new - season cotton growth on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 38,534 lots, up 1,087 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 161 lots, down 97 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract open interest: 584,196 lots, up 24,084 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 21,614 lots, down 306 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 10,334 lots, down 45 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 2 lots, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,726 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,436 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S) arrival price: 21,924 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S) arrival price: 23,713 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,360 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 826,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton import volume: 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 563 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 21.12 days, up 0.14 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.54 days, up 1.37 days [2]. - Cloth output: 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; yarn output: 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons [2]. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1.3577737 billion US dollars, up 197.1179 million US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1.2631773 billion US dollars, up 5.2109 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 12.29%, up 4.36%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 12.29%, up 4.35% [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 6.47%, down 0.24%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 12.78%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - As of June 25, 2024, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2024/25 season was 30,121,873 bales, totaling 6.801796 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.77%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.43177 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.21% [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13645 | 35 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19995 | 90 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -39621 | -5919 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -64 | 20 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 560112 | 18170 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 21920 | 576 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10379 | -40 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 2 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 14938 | 55 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20300 | 0 | | /吨) | 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders for enterprises, slow inventory - reduction, and minor changes in the old - crop fundamentals. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the growth of new - season cotton in major producing areas on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,610 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,905 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 33,702 hands, up 1,314 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 84 hands, down 52 hands [2]. - Cotton main contract position volume is 541,942 hands, up 26,586 hands; cotton yarn main contract position volume is 21,344 hands, up 185 hands [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 10,419 sheets, down 74 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 2 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,883 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,438 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count (arrival price) is 21,869 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count (arrival price) is 23,659 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,417 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 82.6 million tons, down 0.7 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import quantity is 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import quantity is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit is 644 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, up 0.14 days; grey fabric inventory days are 32.54 days, up 1.37 days [2]. - Cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 0.036 million tons [2]. - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, up 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, up 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option is 11.65%, up 3.66%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option is 11.66%, up 3.66% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.64%, unchanged; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.61%, down 0.02% [2]. 3.7 Industry News As of the week ending June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 47%, down from 48% the previous week and 56% in the same period of the past three years. High - temperature weather in the producing areas is unfavorable for crop growth, which boosts the US cotton futures [2]. 3.8 Suggestion Pay continuous attention to the impact of the growth of new - season cotton in major producing areas on the market, as there is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang [2].

，去库存速度缓慢，基本面驱动力不足，以震荡走势为主，关注主产区新季棉花生长情况。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13540 | 15 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19840 | 65 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -39265 | -2616 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -267 | -225 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 533427 | -119 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 21634 | 933 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10651 | -31 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 2 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 14857 | -5 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20300 | 0 | | /吨) | 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) | ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13525 | -5 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19775 | 10 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -36649 | 2758 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -42 | 55 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 533546 | -3983 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 20701 | 329 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10682 | -43 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 2 | 0 | | /吨) | 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | 14862 | 42 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, 元/吨) | 20300 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 13691 | 17 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may fall due to potential increases in production and inventory, with short - term fluctuations in domestic prices. There's a chance of reaching 8300 yuan. US policy proposals may boost soybean oil demand, but domestic inventory increases could drag down prices [1]. Sugar - Short - term, raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. Domestic sugar prices are supported currently but may face limited upside due to expected import increases, with a forecast range of 5800 - 5950 yuan [3]. Cotton - Domestic cotton prices may oscillate in the short term. New cotton supply looks good, while downstream demand is slightly weak. Attention should be paid to the 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton pressure level [4]. Eggs - Abundant supply and general demand lead to a slightly tense supply - demand situation. Egg prices may decline slightly and then stabilize this week [6]. Meal - US soybean prices are pressured by biodiesel policy uncertainty and smooth sowing. Domestic supply is increasing, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to soybean meal performance around 2900 yuan [9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market is stable with a sideways trend. In the long term, supply tightening and increased demand will support prices. Suggest buying on dips during corrections [11]. Pigs - Pig prices are expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract is driven by funds, with limited upside and downside potential. Attention should be paid to the second - fattening slaughter [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: Soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu dropped 0.84%, palm oil in Guangdong fell 2.27%, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased 0.31%. Futures prices also declined, while some basis values changed [1]. - **Policy Impact**: US policy proposals may increase soybean oil demand in biofuel production [1]. Sugar - **Market Data**: Futures prices declined slightly, while some spot prices increased. Production and sales increased year - on - year, and inventory decreased [3]. - **Industry Outlook**: Brazil's sugar production was affected by rain, but the 25/26 season is expected to be a bumper harvest [3]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices dropped slightly, and some spot prices rose. Commercial inventory decreased, and import volume declined [4]. - **Market Situation**: Downstream demand is weakening, and new cotton supply is promising [4]. Eggs - **Price and Profit**: Futures prices declined, and the basis increased. Egg - layer chick prices were stable, and breeding profits improved [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is abundant, and demand is general [6]. Meal - **Price and Spread**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices changed, and various spreads also adjusted. US soybean prices are under pressure, and domestic supply is increasing [9]. - **Market Factors**: Uncertain US biodiesel policy and smooth sowing affect the market [9]. Corn - **Price and Inventory**: Corn and corn starch prices changed. Corn inventory increased slightly, and starch inventory was stable [11]. - **Market Trends**: Short - term stability and long - term upward trend due to supply - demand changes [11]. Pigs - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices declined, and the spread between 7 - 9 contracts decreased. Spot prices were stable, and some indicators changed [15]. - **Market Conditions**: Stable supply - demand and potential second - fattening slaughter [15][16].