Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $3,392.69 per ounce after a high of $3,400.04 and a low of $3,370.57 [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [3] - The dot plot indicates a median interest rate forecast of 3.9% for 2025, with expectations of two rate cuts, while 7 out of 19 officials believe there will be no cuts this year [3][4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating a slight increase in inflation outlook [4] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook shows reduced uncertainty but remains at a high level, with GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025 and 2026 lowered to 1.4% and 1.6% [4] - Current economic growth is estimated between 1.5% to 2%, with the labor market remaining robust and unemployment rates low [6] Communication Strategy - The Federal Reserve plans to review its communication framework by the end of summer, considering improvements to tools like the dot plot [7] - There is a divergence among officials regarding future rate cuts, with 10 expecting at least two cuts this year, while 7 believe there will be no changes [7] Trade and Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced intentions to reach a trade agreement with India [8] - The UN Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting regarding the Israel-Iran conflict [9] - Reports indicate that Iran is open to talks with the U.S. following Trump's proposal [10] - Israel anticipates U.S. involvement in potential strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities [11] - Russia has threatened intervention if the U.S. engages in the Israel-Iran conflict [12]

美联储货币政策报告：政策已做好等待更明确经济前景的充分准备。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The voting ratio was 6:3, with members including Dingra, Ramsden, and Taylor supporting a rate cut [1] - The outlook for interest rates suggests a gradual and cautious approach, with Governor Bailey indicating rates will "gradually decline" [1] Group 2 - The second quarter GDP is projected to grow approximately 0.25% quarter-on-quarter, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.1% [1] - The mid-term CPI path risks are seen as two-sided, with significant wage slowdown expected for the remainder of the year [1] - CPI is anticipated to peak at 3.7% in September, remaining below 3.5% for the rest of the year [1] Group 3 - Preliminary analysis indicates that the impact of tariffs on global GDP may be smaller than previously expected in May [1] - Recent global developments did not significantly influence the decision to maintain interest rates in June [1] Group 4 - The GBP/USD exchange rate experienced a short-term decline, with traders increasing bets on an 80% probability of a rate cut in August [1] - There are expectations for an additional 50 basis points cut by the central bank within the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, is set to deliver a speech regarding the economic outlook, inflation trends, and interest rates in Canada [1] Group 1 - The speech will address the economic prospects for Canada [1] - It will cover the trends in inflation that are currently affecting the economy [1] - The discussion will also include insights on interest rate policies and their implications [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the easing of trade tensions presents an upside risk to Singapore's economic outlook, while geopolitical tensions pose a downside risk [1] Group 2 - Economists highlight that the current geopolitical landscape could significantly impact economic forecasts for Singapore [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan unanimously decided to maintain interest rates, with future rate hikes dependent on the likelihood of achieving economic expectations [1] - The Japanese economy is showing moderate recovery, although some signs of weakness remain, with downward risks to both the economy and prices being more severe [1] - Inflation expectations in Japan have not stabilized at the 2% target level, with core inflation not rising at an accelerated pace [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan plans to reduce monthly government bond purchases, with a target of 325 billion yen for 3-5 year bonds from July to September, down from 275 billion yen previously [2] - By March 2027, the total amount of government bonds held by the Bank of Japan is expected to decrease by approximately 16-17% from the levels in June 2024 [2] - A new bond purchase plan will be announced in June next year for the period starting April 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated a cautious approach to reducing bond purchases due to concerns about market volatility impacting the economy [1] Group 1 - The decision on interest rates will depend on the likelihood of achieving economic outlooks [1] - The overall functionality of the bond market was considered in making decisions [1]

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in June unexpectedly rose to 60.5, significantly above the market expectation of 58 and much higher than May's 52.2, indicating a subtle change in American households' views on the economic situation and future prospects [1][3] - The index for current economic conditions increased to 63.7, up 8.1% month-over-month, while the future economic conditions index jumped from 47.9 to 58.4, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 21.9%, suggesting reduced concerns about the short-term economic outlook [3] - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year dropped significantly from 6.6% in May to 5.1%, while the five-year long-term inflation expectation slightly decreased to 4.1%, indicating a downward trend that may provide more flexibility for monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Despite the short-term rebound in confidence, the overall confidence level remains low, influenced by fluctuating energy and food prices, high interest rates, and mortgage costs, which have significantly pressured American consumers' purchasing power [3][4] - The potential for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in September or December may strengthen if inflation continues to ease and consumer confidence improves further [3] - The rise in consumer confidence in June serves as a positive signal for economic sentiment and provides short-term support for recent asset market fluctuations, but the sustainability of this optimism will depend on key economic data in the coming months, particularly in the labor market and core inflation [4]

Economic Data and Events - Key economic data and events to focus on include speeches from Federal Reserve officials regarding economic outlook and banking policies [1] - Germany's industrial production and trade balance for April will be released, along with the Halifax house price index for the UK [1] - France's industrial production and trade balance for April are also scheduled for release [1] - Eurozone's first quarter GDP year-on-year revision and employment figures will be published [1] - Retail sales data for April in the Eurozone will be reported [1] - Canada and the US will release employment figures for May, including unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data [1] - The total number of oil rigs in the US will be updated for the week ending June 6 [1]

Core Insights - Corporate optimism in the U.S. has significantly declined, continuing and deepening the downward trend observed in the first quarter, marking a stark reversal compared to the optimism seen after Donald Trump's re-election [1] Summary by Categories - **Corporate Sentiment** - Only 27% of surveyed executives expressed optimism about the economic outlook for the next 12 months, a notable decrease from 47% in the first quarter and 67% in the fourth quarter of the previous year [1]