金十数据5月16日讯，凯投宏观亚太区负责人Marcel Thieliant表示，早些时候公布的日本第一季度GDP 数据弱于预期，意味着日本央行可能会等待更长时间才加息。"相对于我们的预测，主要令人失望的是 个人消费，与上季度持平。"由于美国的关税将拖累日本的出口增长，日本央行在上次会议上对经济前 景变得更加悲观的判断似乎是正确的。因此，"看起来越来越有可能的是，日本央行不会像我们目前预 测的那样，最早在7月份加息"。 凯投宏观：日本季度GDP疲软暗示日央行或推迟加息时间 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a significant rebound, moving from a one-month low of $3120/oz to around $3220 following the release of key economic data from the US [2] - A perfect V-shaped reversal was noted in gold prices, with a critical level at $3200; if prices hold above this level, further upward movement is expected [3][5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips around $3200 and targeting resistance levels at $3265-3675, while support is seen at $3225-3215 [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The US EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 3.5 million barrels, raising concerns about supply exceeding demand, which led to a decline in oil prices [6] - The WTI crude oil price fell by $1.33 to $61.82 per barrel, reflecting market reactions to the inventory data and concerns over supply-demand mismatches [6] - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend for oil prices, with expectations of further declines towards the $50 mark, while short-term strategies recommend selling on rebounds [7]

日本央行副行长内田真一：需要密切关注经济前景是否能够实现。 若经济前景实现，将会加息。 不确定性非常高。 汇率的快速波动增加了前景展望的不确定性。 汇率带来的影响因经济实体而异。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring changes in trade policy and their impact on productivity and economic outlook [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's attention to trade policy changes indicates a proactive approach to understanding economic dynamics [1] - The focus on productivity suggests that the Federal Reserve is considering how trade policies may influence overall economic efficiency [1] - The implications of trade policy on economic prospects highlight the interconnectedness of global trade and domestic economic health [1]

美联储威廉姆斯未对经济和货币政策前景发表评论。 ...

美联储理事巴尔：贸易政策增加了不确定性，导致经济前景变得黯淡，影响了消费者和企业的信心。 ...

瑞典央行：经济前景似乎比三月份的预测略微疲软一些。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of maintaining rates in May due to strong employment data and easing inflation pressures [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May exceeds 96%, indicating a strong consensus in the market [3]. - April's non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly surpassing the expected 138,000, reflecting a robust labor market [3]. - The March PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE dropping to 2.6%, suggesting reduced short-term pressure for rate hikes [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Recent tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have emerged, with President Trump suggesting that the Fed should lower rates, which could undermine the Fed's independence [3][4]. - The upcoming press conference is crucial for understanding Fed Chair Powell's stance on inflation, economic outlook, and political pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - A hawkish signal from Powell could lead to a rebound in the dollar index, putting short-term pressure on the Chinese yuan, while long-term trends will depend on domestic economic resilience [5]. - If the Fed signals a stable liquidity environment without aggressive rate hikes, technology stocks may continue to perform well, driven by AI trends [5]. - Gold prices are sensitive to interest rates; maintaining current rates could enhance its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while oil prices will depend on the Fed's economic outlook [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Current market expectations indicate a 35% probability of a rate cut in June, suggesting that most believe the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The focus should be on whether the Fed's policy logic shifts from "anti-inflation priority" to "balancing growth and inflation," which will influence asset allocation strategies in the coming months [5].

日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济前景发生变化，我们将需要调整我们的货币政策。此次展望可能不如 以往准确。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：经济前景不如以往那样确定。 ...