根据纽约联储的月度调查，12月份美国通胀预期上升，而对就业机会的看法则处于至少12.5年来的最低 水平。根据报告，消费者预计未来一年物价将上涨3.4%，高于11月份的3.2%。消费者对失业后找到新 工作的概率估计值降至43.1%，这是该 银行自2013年中期开始进行消费者预期调查以来的最低值。这些 数据凸显了美联储官员中更关心通胀与认为失业率上升风险更大的人之间的分歧。这一差距很可能阻碍 美联储在本月晚些时候的下一次政策会议上调整利率。 ...

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate hike during its last meeting of 2025, with concerns about a potential "hawkish rate cut" that could affect future cuts [2][5] - Traders are focused on the implications of sticky inflation and a slowly improving job outlook, which may influence the tone of Chairman Powell's commentary [5] Stock Market Performance - Major indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.38% at 47,560, the S&P 500 flat at 6,840, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 23,576 [2] Treasury Bonds - Treasury yields were mixed, with a strong demand for a $58 billion auction of 3-year notes, indicating a good appetite for shorter-term debt [3] - The 30-year bond yield finished at 4.81%, while the benchmark 10-year note was at 4.19% [3] Oil and Gas Market - Oil prices continued to decline due to abundant supplies and expectations of slowing demand, with Brent Crude at $62.05 (down 0.70%) and West Texas Intermediate at $58.35 (down 0.90%) [4] - Iraq's restoration of production at the West Qurna 2 oilfield added approximately 460,000 barrels per day to global supply, impacting market dynamics [4] - Natural gas prices fell significantly, closing at $4.56, down 7.21% due to profit-taking and weather-related factors [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the stability of consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. for November, with a maintained one-year inflation expectation of 3.2% and a three to five-year expectation of 3% [1] - The New York Fed's survey indicates an improvement in consumer sentiment regarding the job market, with the probability of unemployment decreasing to 13.8%, the lowest level this year [1] - Despite the positive outlook on employment, a significant portion of households reported worsening financial conditions, with 39% stating their financial situation is worse than a year ago, the highest level in two years [1] Group 2 - Senior aides to former President Trump are urging him to address inflation and economic issues more effectively, as concerns over living costs are impacting his presidency and the Republican Party [4] - Trump has dismissed the focus on "affordability" as a Democratic narrative, claiming it is a misleading term that does not resonate with the public [5] - There are plans for Trump to shift his public engagements to focus more on economic issues, especially in light of the upcoming midterm elections, with a particular emphasis on addressing inflation [5][6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Waller indicated that home builders are expressing concerns about poor employment prospects, which is hindering potential homebuyers from entering the market [1] Group 1 - Home builders are reporting negative employment outlooks [1] - These employment concerns are impacting the willingness of potential buyers to purchase homes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 37th day, is projected to cause significant economic damage, with estimates of weekly losses ranging from $10 billion to $30 billion, potentially impacting the fourth-quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points [3][5][6]. Economic Impact - Historically, government shutdowns have had temporary effects, with furloughed employees receiving back pay. However, this shutdown is expected to have more severe consequences due to its prolonged duration and the current economic fragility, with many Americans concerned about inflation and job prospects [5][6]. - The shutdown is affecting millions, particularly as many will lose access to food assistance during the holiday season. This contrasts with previous shutdowns, where the impact was more localized to federal employees [5][6]. - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has announced a 10% reduction in flight volumes at 40 major airports due to air traffic controller shortages caused by the shutdown [6]. Broader Economic Consequences - The shutdown's repercussions extend beyond federal employees, with significant wage losses reported across the U.S. For instance, the unemployment rate could rise from 4.3% to 4.7% due to furloughed federal workers being counted in unemployment statistics [8]. - An estimated $24 billion in federal goods and services spending has been paused, affecting contractors and suppliers reliant on these funds [8][9]. - Small businesses are also facing challenges, with approximately 4,800 businesses having $2.5 billion in loans frozen due to the shutdown, impacting their daily operations and expansion plans [9][10]. Consumer Confidence and Future Outlook - The shutdown is expected to further erode consumer confidence, particularly if it extends into the critical holiday shopping season. Previous shutdowns have shown a tendency to negatively impact consumer sentiment, and current economic indicators may not mitigate this effect [10].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy, emphasizing the Fed's ongoing efforts to maintain economic and financial stability while adapting policies based on economic conditions rather than preset paths [1][3]. Economic Outlook - Current data indicates that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since September, despite some delays in government data due to the shutdown [3][4]. - Economic activity growth may be more robust than previously expected, with the unemployment rate remaining low as of August, although non-farm employment growth has slowed [3][4]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with rising risks to employment, as evidenced by low levels of layoffs and hiring, alongside declining perceptions of job opportunities among residents and businesses [3][4]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate was 2.9% year-on-year as of August, slightly up from earlier in the year, primarily due to rising core goods prices [4]. - Short-term inflation expectations have increased this year, while most long-term inflation expectations remain aligned with the Fed's 2% target [4]. - The rising risks in the labor market have influenced the Fed's assessment of risk balance, leading to a more neutral policy stance being deemed appropriate [4]. Federal Reserve Operations - Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction may conclude in the coming months, with the Fed aiming to ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system to manage short-term interest rates and market volatility [1][3]. - The tightening liquidity conditions and rising repo rates have led to temporary liquidity pressures, highlighting the need for a flexible approach to the balance sheet based on experiences since 2020 [1][3].

Group 1 - The preliminary report from the University of Michigan indicates a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index to 55.4 in September, marking the lowest level since May and a second consecutive month of decline [1][2] - The report highlights that the long-term inflation expectations have risen for two consecutive months, contributing to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2] - The decline in consumer confidence suggests potential reductions in consumer spending, which could negatively impact overall economic growth [2] Group 2 - Analysts point out that the ongoing decrease in consumer confidence reflects the dual pressures of slowing growth and rising inflation facing the U.S. economy [2] - The increase in the probability of personal unemployment among consumers indicates heightened concerns about job market stability, which weighs heavily on consumer sentiment [2] - Recent data shows that in August, U.S. employers added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2]

Group 1 - The changing score lines reflect the market and employment trends, indicating a shift in focus from prestigious universities to professional prospects and job security among students and parents [1][3][4] - High-scoring students are increasingly opting for universities like Fuyao University, which has surpassed several 985 and 211 universities in admission scores, demonstrating a preference for institutions with strong employment outcomes [1][2] - New research-oriented universities are emerging successfully, with their admission scores matching or exceeding those of established 985 and 211 universities, indicating a shift in the higher education landscape [1][4] Group 2 - There is a growing trend among students to prioritize universities and majors that offer job security over traditional prestigious institutions, as seen in the case of Shanghai Customs College in Jiangsu, where its admission score surpassed many 985 universities [2][3] - The perception of top-tier universities like Tsinghua and Peking University is changing, with some students choosing to apply to other top universities for more popular majors, reflecting a more pragmatic approach to education [2][3] - The emergence of new universities with clear positioning and alignment with economic needs is fostering healthy competition among higher education institutions [4]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $3,392.69 per ounce after a high of $3,400.04 and a low of $3,370.57 [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [3] - The dot plot indicates a median interest rate forecast of 3.9% for 2025, with expectations of two rate cuts, while 7 out of 19 officials believe there will be no cuts this year [3][4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating a slight increase in inflation outlook [4] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook shows reduced uncertainty but remains at a high level, with GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025 and 2026 lowered to 1.4% and 1.6% [4] - Current economic growth is estimated between 1.5% to 2%, with the labor market remaining robust and unemployment rates low [6] Communication Strategy - The Federal Reserve plans to review its communication framework by the end of summer, considering improvements to tools like the dot plot [7] - There is a divergence among officials regarding future rate cuts, with 10 expecting at least two cuts this year, while 7 believe there will be no changes [7] Trade and Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced intentions to reach a trade agreement with India [8] - The UN Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting regarding the Israel-Iran conflict [9] - Reports indicate that Iran is open to talks with the U.S. following Trump's proposal [10] - Israel anticipates U.S. involvement in potential strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities [11] - Russia has threatened intervention if the U.S. engages in the Israel-Iran conflict [12]