地缘政治因素对美元的提振效应有限。尽管美国介入委内瑞拉事务并引发外界对局势升级的担忧，但市场反应相对冷静，美元指数反而小幅回落。这表明短 期内，政治风险尚未转化为系统性避险需求，投资者更倾向于等待更明确的风险信号，而非提前大规模调整仓位。 从市场表现来看，美元指数在短暂反弹后再度走弱，并在亚洲交易时段徘徊于98.50附近，这一走势反映出当前市场对美元的支撑因素并不稳固。 美元通常被视为避险资产，但在近期地缘政治事件的刺激下，其避险属性并未被明显放大，说明投资者的关注重点仍然集中在美国自身的经济基本面和货币 政策前景上。 从数据层面分析，即将公布的美国12月ADP就业人数和ISM非制造业PMI成为市场关注的核心。 这两项指标分别反映就业市场和服务业景气度，是判断美国经济韧性的重要参考。在美联储政策高度依赖数据的背景下，任何超出或低于预期的结果，都可 能迅速影响市场对利率路径的判断，从而直接作用于美元走势。 美联储内部立场分化正在成为压制美元的重要因素。一方面，有官员主张通过大幅降息来支撑经济增长，另一方面，也有声音对就业前景表达谨慎态度，提 醒失业率可能出现突然上行。这种分歧使市场难以形成对未来政策的清晰预期， ...

格隆汇1月6日｜由于投资者将注意力转向本周公布的一系列关键美国经济数据，以寻求更多货币政策前 景的线索，金价在早盘交易中扩大涨幅。在上一个交易日，由于美军抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗激发了避 险需求，黄金价格出现攀升。三菱日联金融集团Soojin Kim指出："黄金刚刚经历了自1979年以来最强 劲的年度表现。但短期内，金价可能面临商品指数再平衡的压力，这可能会促使被动基金在去年创纪录 的涨势后削减头寸。" ...

投资者正密切关注将于周五公布的美国9月核心个人消费支出物价指数，这是美联储偏好的通胀指标， 其结果可能影响货币政策前景。 本交易日关注美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数(万人)、美国至11月29日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国 11月全球供应链压力指数等数据，根据昨日公布的ADP和市场预期来看，大概率将利好银价。 【最新白银t+d行情解析】 短期而言，白银td倾向于调整，上方压力关注13850-14000，下方支撑关注12500-13000。 周四(12月4日)午后盘，白银t+d加速下挫，日内跌幅扩大至2.00%，截至发稿白银td价格最高触及13799 元/千克，最低下探至13304元/千克，目前来看，白银td盘内短线偏向走跌走势，多头惨遭绞杀，空头下 一个目标位剑指何方？ 【要闻速递】 市场对美联储降息的预期居高不下，CME FedWatch工具显示，市场认为下周降息的概率高达89%，主 要经纪商也普遍预期FOMC将在此次会议上放宽政策。支撑这一预期的数据包括周三公布的ADP就业报 告，其显示美国11月民间就业岗位减少3.2万个，为两年半来最大降幅。 ...

周四(12月4日)亚市盘中，现货白银短线突然急跌，日内跌幅超1.00%，截至发稿今日银价最高触及58.75 美元/盎司，最低下探至57.31美元/盎司，银价短期仍具上行潜力，但真正的方向将由本周晚些时候公布 的初请失业金与PCE通胀决定。 他提到，印度作为全球第五大经济体，其白银进口量正在飙升。他透露，印度10月进口了大约6000万盎 司白银，而一年前约为1500万盎司。 除了印度的珠宝和银条需求之外，贝克表示，面对更高的价格和更紧张的库存，工业买家也在改变他们 的行为模式。 日内将可关注美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数(万人)、美国至11月29日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国 11月全球供应链压力指数等数据，根据昨日公布的ADP和市场预期来看，大概率将利好白银。 投资者正密切关注将于周五公布的美国9月核心个人消费支出物价指数，这是美联储偏好的通胀指标， 其结果可能影响货币政策前景。 【最新白银行情解析】 【要闻速递】 周三ADP数据意外下跌，增强了美国下周降息的预期，现货白银创下历史新高的58.98美元后回落，最 终收涨0.02%，报58.45美元/盎司。 今年以来银价已上涨100%，正录得自1979年以来最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, driven by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and a global tech stock sell-off, highlighting the market's sensitivity to monetary policy outlook [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices initially rose to a high of $4,132 before retreating to a low of $4,055, indicating a complete reversal of gains for the day [2] - The surge in gold prices was primarily fueled by a wave of selling in global tech stocks, which increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, emphasizing caution regarding interest rate cuts, dampened bullish sentiment in the gold market [1][2] - The dollar index rebounded, approaching a six-month high, which placed additional pressure on gold prices denominated in dollars [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key price levels for gold were identified: resistance at $4,082, $4,100, and $4,132, with support at $4,055, $4,050, and $4,000 [5] - The market is expected to oscillate within the $4,050 to $4,100 range, with close attention needed on Federal Reserve communications and U.S. economic data [5]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is generally limited, with the market showing a mainly weak - oscillating trend [2]. - Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [3]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost fluctuations, and different commodities have different market outlooks and investment suggestions [2 - 48]. Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.77%. The U.S. is promoting a Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing geopolitical risk premiums. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 342,600 barrels last week. The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not appeared, and the market is mainly weak - oscillating [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The logic of high - sulfur fuel oil being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is strong due to supply - side disruptions, but there is medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may become looser in the medium term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The expected import cost of international LPG in December is rising. The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units boosts the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting operations, and the demand for the combustion end has improved. LPG is expected to be strong - oscillating [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information in this report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the price has declined. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the price may be weak - oscillating [17]. - **Steam Coal**: No relevant information in this report. - **Uranium**: No relevant information in this report. Metals - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight, precious metals were strong - oscillating with sharp intraday fluctuations. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed serious differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. Precious metals are waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Platinum & Palladium**: No relevant information in this report. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose, and SHFE copper was oscillating with reduced positions. The Fed's meeting minutes showed differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Chile raised its average copper price forecast for this year and next. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 87,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum was oscillating. This week, non - ferrous metals as a whole adjusted, and SHFE aluminum fell back from a high level. The market is still looking for economic prospects and interest rate cut clues, and the aluminum market is expected to be short - term oscillating [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of both domestic and overseas mines decreased, and smelters' production cuts in November gradually materialized. Domestic zinc social inventories decreased, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating and medium - term bearish [8]. - **Lead**: The external and domestic inventories increased, and the market fundamentals weakened. The support level for SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 17,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel had narrow - range fluctuations, and the market trading was dull. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel - iron increased, and nickel prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose first and then fell, and SHFE tin opened high and closed low. The resumption of production in low - grade mines and the efficiency of Indonesia's production capacity rectification are the keys to deepening the tight supply. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 295,000 yuan [11]. - **Rare Earths**: No relevant information in this report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The two - olefin futures continued to decline, with a divergence between short - term futures and spot prices. The supply pressure of plastic and polypropylene is difficult to alleviate, and the long - term trend is bearish [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The cost support for PVC weakened, and it continued to decline. The demand for PVC exports to India improved, but the overall demand boost was limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend [29]. - **PX & PTA**: Oil prices fell, but PX was strong, supporting PTA prices. PTA's profitability was poor, and the number of device overhauls increased. The terminal demand for PTA weakened [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the medium - term demand is weak [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. Bottle - chip demand is fading, and there is long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. - **Glass**: Glass continued to decline. The inventory pressure in the middle - stream is high, and the profit is narrowing. The follow - up may fluctuate with the cost side [33]. - **20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the price of Thai raw materials rose. The demand is slowly weakening, and the supply of natural rubber is decreasing while that of synthetic rubber is increasing [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost side of soda ash moved down, and it continued to decline. The industry inventory decreased slightly. The long - term supply is expected to be in excess [35]. Agriculture - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The night - session of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures followed the decline of U.S. soybeans. The South American soybean planting progress is slow, and the domestic soybean supply is sufficient while the crushing profit is poor [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Overnight, U.S. soybean oil fell. The policy change may narrow the price difference between global vegetable oils and U.S. domestic vegetable oils. Palm oil may have a phased bottom [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the supply side. The impact of Australian rapeseed on the supply side is mainly on the March contract and far - month contracts. The short - term strategy is bearish [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of the main contract of soybean No.1 futures fell rapidly from a high level. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased, and imported soybeans may be strong - oscillating in the short term [39]. - **Corn**: The night - session of Dalian corn futures was weak - oscillating. The new corn supply in Northeast China increased less, and farmers were more reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract may continue to correct [40]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pig**: The pig futures were weak - oscillating, and the spot price rebounded slightly. The pig price may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [41]. - **Chicken & Eggs**: The egg spot price continued to fall, and the market may be weak in the short term. Hold short positions in near - month contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton fell back, waiting for the weekly export data. The domestic Xinjiang cotton purchase is basically over, and the new cotton listing brings pressure to the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be range - oscillating [43]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, U.S. sugar was oscillating. India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush sugar, and the domestic market's focus is on the new - season output forecast [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price of apples was oscillating at a high level. The spot price of cold - stored apples is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contracts [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price of timber was oscillating. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand supports the price. The low inventory provides strong support [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures continued to fall. The port inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was average. The price may continue to correct [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The market has digested the expected price increase of container shipping in early December. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the far - month contracts are expected to be low - level oscillating [20]. - **Financial Futures**: - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares were boosted by the rise of heavy - weight sectors, and the performance of futures contracts was differentiated. The short - term stock market should adopt a relatively defensive strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The market risk preference change may bring new opportunities [48].

美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中未对经济或货币政策前景发表评论。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker did not comment on the economic and monetary policy outlook [1] Group 1 - The absence of comments from Harker indicates a potential wait-and-see approach regarding future economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller did not provide any comments regarding the economic outlook or monetary policy direction [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Outlook - No comments were made by Federal Reserve Governor Waller on the economic outlook [1] - Monetary Policy - There were no insights provided on the future direction of monetary policy by Waller [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve's Williams did not comment on the economic and monetary policy outlook [1] Group 1 - The absence of comments from Williams may indicate a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve regarding future economic conditions [1]