Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a steady recovery, led by the technology sector, with the S&P 500 rising by 5.3% and the Nasdaq increasing by 7.2% [3] - Significant capital inflows have been observed, particularly in the semiconductor and automotive sectors, indicating strong investor interest [4] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 constituents have been slightly adjusted upwards, with traditional industries showing the most significant upward revisions [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 increased by 5.3% and the Nasdaq by 7.2% this week, with the automotive and semiconductor sectors leading the gains at +16.2% and +13.3% respectively [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflows for the S&P 500 constituents reached +$25.71 billion this week, a significant increase from the previous week's +$2.99 billion [4] - The semiconductor sector saw the highest inflow at +$9.17 billion, followed by automotive at +$6.59 billion [18] Earnings Forecasts - The dynamic F12M EPS expectations for the S&P 500 were adjusted up by 0.1%, with 19 sectors seeing upward revisions, particularly real estate (+0.7%) and materials (+0.5%) [5]

美国关税政策再度传来变数。当地时间5月16日，美国总统特朗普表示，未来两到三周内，美国可能会单方面 对许多贸易伙伴设定新的关税税率。 特朗普突然改口。 与此同时，特朗普不断喊话力挺美股，试图缓解投资者对关税政策的担忧情绪。特朗普于日前表示，美国财长 贝森特很了解市场，只要贝森特一出现在电视上，股市就会上涨。在此之前，他曾直言："现在就是买入的好 时机。" 美东时间5月16日，美股集体高开高走，标普连涨第五天，道指收复年内所有跌幅。截至收盘，道指涨 0.78%，标普500指数涨0.7%，纳指涨0.52%；道指本周累涨3.41%，标普500指数本周累涨5.27%，纳指本周 累涨7.15%。大型科技股多数走高，特斯拉涨超2%，谷歌C涨超1%。中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收 涨0.52%，本周累涨4.56%。 但对于美股后市，华尔街机构的预期并不乐观。有分析称，美股市场在创纪录的时间内从超卖飙升至超买。当 前市场走势似乎更多是由情绪驱动，而不是美国经济数据发出的明确信号。德意志银行警告称，美国股票估值 相比全球其他市场已达到了历史高点。 特朗普宣布 据英国《金融时报》报道，当地时间5月16日，美国总统特朗普表示， ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the US stock market has experienced a strong rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices rising by 6.4% and 4.5% respectively [3][4] - The primary catalyst for this rally was the unexpected positive outcome of the US-China trade negotiations, which led to significant reductions in bilateral tariffs [6][9] - The report highlights that sectors closely tied to global manufacturing and supply chains, such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and telecommunications, outperformed the S&P 500 index [3][5] Economic Factors - The US tariffs have become a dominant factor influencing the performance of the US stock market, primarily due to the widespread impact of Trump's tariff policies [9] - Concerns about tariffs potentially causing a rebound in US inflation and hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates have been alleviated by the recent tariff reductions [9][14] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021, which further supports the bullish sentiment in the stock market [10][14] Market Outlook - The report suggests that while the immediate outlook for the US stock market appears positive due to improved trade relations, uncertainties remain regarding the long-term effects of tariff policies and potential inflation risks [15] - The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut have been pushed back from July to September, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing economic assessments [14][15] - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance towards the US stock market, anticipating a period of consolidation in the near term [15]

美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，纳指涨0.72%，标普500指数涨0.1%，道指跌0.21%。大型科技股多数上 涨，特斯拉、英伟达涨超4%。 ...

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - The final consumer confidence index for April in the U.S. is 52.2, a significant drop from 57 in March, marking one of the lowest levels since the late 1970s [1] - Consumers expect an average inflation rate of 4.4% over the next 5-10 years, the highest since 1991, with a one-year inflation expectation of 6.5%, the highest since 1981 [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates rising asset valuation risks and high U.S. Treasury yields, with global trade risks identified as the top threat to financial stability [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance and Predictions - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator signaling a potential new upward cycle, historically leading to a 100% success rate of gains in the following 12 months [3] - Despite the rebound, analysts caution that the market may face volatility due to macro uncertainties, particularly regarding trade negotiations [3][4] - Bank of America suggests that the rebound may not be sustainable unless three conditions are met: a trade agreement, a Fed rate cut, and resilient consumer spending [3][4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a record outflow of $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold ETF, the largest single-day outflow since 2011 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the current pullback in gold prices may present a buying opportunity, advocating for a 10% allocation in gold within investment portfolios [5] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive despite short-term risks, as inflation persists and the Fed maintains a neutral policy stance [5][7] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - Novo Nordisk achieved a significant legal victory, allowing the FDA to take action against the production of generic versions of its diabetes and weight loss drugs, which had previously faced shortages [8] - The court ruling is seen as a positive development for Novo Nordisk, which has faced stock price declines due to competitive pressures and underwhelming new product performance [8] - The market for weight loss drugs is now highly competitive, with Novo Nordisk's main competitor being Eli Lilly, posing ongoing challenges for the company's stock performance [8] Group 5: Autonomous Driving Regulations - The U.S. Department of Transportation announced a major relaxation of regulations for autonomous vehicles, streamlining the accident reporting process and facilitating the commercial rollout of self-driving cars [10] - This regulatory change is particularly beneficial for Tesla, which plans to launch its Cybercab service in Texas, and may enhance the testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles [10] - Despite an 18% rebound in Tesla's stock, concerns remain regarding the company's performance metrics and the influence of CEO Elon Musk's political activities on stock volatility [10][11]

本周，美股市场将面临多重考验。苹果、微软、亚马逊和Meta等逾180家标普500指数成分股将密集发 布财报，同时美国月度就业报告和关键通胀数据将出炉，市场波动或加剧。 本周五，伯克希尔.哈撒韦将召开2025年度股东大会，"股神"巴菲特将与接班人格雷格.阿贝尔(Greg Abel)和保险业务主管阿吉特.贾恩(Ajit Jain)同台，回答股东提问。 美股市场迎来多项重磅数据 本周，包括苹果、微软、亚马逊和Meta等在内的180余家公司将发布季度财报，这些公司的市值占标普 500指数市值的40%以上。 其中，微软计划在周三收盘后发布最新财报，分析师预计，微软收入和收益将同比增长约10%。 Meta的第一季度财报也将在周三收盘后发布。市场分析师预计，第一季度公司利润和销售额将实现两 位数增长。目前，Meta股价已从历史高点下跌超过30%，由于估值较低和稳健的广告增长，Seeking Alpha的量化评级系统将其从卖出转为持有。 周四盘后，市场将迎来苹果的最新财报。分析师认为，下行风险已体现在苹果的股价中，预计每股收益 和收入将同比增长5%。 亚马逊预计在周四收盘后公布第一季度收益，分析师预计利润将增长38%。 目前 ...

美股持续走高， 纳指涨幅扩大至2%， 标普500指数现涨1.7%， 道指涨1.6%。 ...

中国基金报记者伊万 【导读】美股三大指数集体收跌，奈飞逆市上涨！英伟达突传利空盘后大跌！特朗普最新签署！ 美东时间4月15日，关税政策不稳定性仍存，美股反弹受阻，三大指数当日集体收跌。 流媒体巨头奈飞逆市上涨近5%！英伟达突传利空，盘后跌超6%！ 关税不稳定性导致美股集体收跌 流媒体巨头奈飞逆市上涨近5% 美东时间4月15日，奈飞收涨4.83%，报976.28美元，最新总市值达4176亿美元。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数收跌155.83点，跌幅为0.38%，报40368.96点；纳指收跌8.32点，跌幅为0.05%，报16823.17点；标普500指数收跌9.34点，下跌 0.17%，报5396.63点。 科技股多数下跌。脸书跌逾1%，谷歌跌逾1%，亚马逊跌逾1%，微软跌0.54%，苹果跌0.19%，特斯拉涨0.7%，英伟达涨逾1%。 | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 112.200 | 1.35% | | --- | --- | --- | | NVDA.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 254.110 | 0.70% | | TSLA.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 202.140 | - ...

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on April 14, 2025, at 10 AM to discuss the first quarter economic data [1] - Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, will introduce the import and export situation for the first quarter of 2025 and answer questions from reporters [1]