瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 库存处于低位，价格震荡略偏强 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 关 注 微信服 务 号 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况及期权 4、期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2510价格震荡，周度上涨0.55% 苹果市场周报 行情展望：新季苹果方面，产区套袋工作结束，产量问题逐渐明朗，根据市场对 陕西苹果主产区坐果和套袋情况调研来看，陕西今年坐果套袋情况较去年同期减 产幅度预计在5%-10%。根据Mysteel数据，截至2025年7月2日，全国主产区苹果 冷库库存量为99.31万吨，环比上周减少7.60万吨，淡季走货速度不快，环比上周 放缓，同比有所减慢。山东产区库容比为13.98%，较上周减少0.78%，去库速度 同比减慢。山东产区目前客商数量不多，客商仍青睐性价比高的货源，整体走货 不快。陕西产区库容比为6.43%，较上周减少0.68%，走货较上周表现略慢。陕西 产区交易仍集中于陕北地区，其余产区清库。当前库存处于五年同期低位，对价 格具有较强支撑，只是夏季消暑水果大 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On July 3, 2025, the apple market showed a weak trend. The new - season apple in Shaanxi is expected to have a 5% - 10% reduction in production compared to last year. The current inventory is at a five - year low, which strongly supports the price. However, due to the listing of summer fruits, the demand for apples is weak, and the selling intention of fruit farmers has increased after bagging. The apple market will run slightly stronger in the short - term with oscillations. Follow - up attention should be paid to the production situation [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 7,764 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 88,743 lots, a decrease of 2,756 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,696 lots, an increase of 1,406 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4.5 yuan/jin. The spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares. The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.73 yuan/kg, and that of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg. The national apple cold - storage inventory is 99.31 million tons, a decrease of 7.6 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 13.98%, a decrease of 0.78%. The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 6.43%, a decrease of 0.68%. The monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 2,201,050.17 million US dollars, and the monthly apple export amount is 5,152.5 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of pears is 6.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of bananas is 6.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of watermelons is 3.96 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 7.8, a decrease of 2.45. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11, a decrease of 3.25. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 18.8, a decrease of 3.45 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.26%, an increase of 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.26%, an increase of 0.12% [2] Industry News - On July 3, 2025, the apple production area trading was light. The remaining goods in the western production area were few, mainly self - stored goods of merchants. In the Shandong production area, the price of merchant goods was stable, while the price of fruit - farmer goods was affected by quality, showing a differentiated market [2]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 07 月 02 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日份格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 113.20 | 112.93 | 0.27 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.34 | 7.39 | -0.05 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | | | 指标 | रे रि | 昨收 | 涨跌 | ...

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 苹果产业日报 2025-06-30 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7701 | 4 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7701 | 4 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 93259 | 5851 仓单数量:苹果(日,张) | 0 | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 4497 | -719 | | | | 现货市场 | 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | 4.1 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 0 | 4.5 | 0 | | | 二级果农货)(日,元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - New - season apple production in Shaanxi is expected to decrease by 5% - 10% compared to last year. As of June 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 106.91 million tons, with a slowdown in the shipping speed. Summer fruits' large - scale listing and increased substitution lead to weak apple demand. After bagging, farmers' willingness to sell increases, pressuring apple prices. However, the current low inventory provides strong price support. The apple price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and continued attention should be given to production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - long Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of apple futures 2510 fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.44% [5][9]. - **Market Outlook**: Shaanxi's apple production is expected to decrease by 5% - 10%. As of June 25, the national cold - storage inventory was 106.91 million tons, with a slowdown in shipping speed. Summer fruits increase substitution, and farmers' selling intention rises after bagging, but the low inventory supports prices. The apple price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat the apple 2510 contract as a fluctuating market [5]. - **Future Transaction Tips**: Monitor the de - stocking rate, consumption, and new crop production [6]. 3.2. Futures Market - The price of apple futures 2510 fluctuated this week, with a weekly decline of 0.44%. As of the end of the week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 5,216 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [9][15]. 3.3. Spot Market - As of June 27, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 4.1 yuan per catty, and the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.7 yuan per catty [18]. 3.4. Industry Chain - **Supply Side**: As of June 25, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 106.91 million tons, a decrease of 9.58 million tons from last week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased by 0.84% and 0.91% respectively, and the shipping speed was slow [5][26]. - **Demand Side** - As of June 27, the average daily early - morning vehicle arrival volume at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased, and the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan per catty [30]. - As of June 20, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.56 yuan per kilogram, a 1.27% increase; the average wholesale price of all apples was 9.63 yuan per kilogram, a 0.42% increase [34]. - As of June 20, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.66 yuan per kilogram, a 0.91% decrease [38]. - In May 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 39,369.54 tons, a 26.36% month - on - month decrease from April and a 9.22% year - on - year decrease from May 2022 [42]. 3.5. Option Market - The report shows a graph of the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week, but no specific data is provided [43]. 3.6. Futures - Stock Correlation - The report shows a graph of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit, but no specific data is provided [46]

苹果产业日报 2025-06-26 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7726 | 36 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7726 | 36 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 94077 | 6407 仓单数量:苹果(日,张) | 0 | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 5006 | 904 | | | | | 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | 4.1 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 0 | 4.5 | 0 | | 现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the low inventory of apples this season, it is expected to effectively support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April had a negative impact on fruit setting in some areas of Shaanxi, and it is predicted that the fruit - setting performance of apples in Shaanxi this year is slightly poor. Currently, the price of the October futures contract has fallen to the current level, and it is expected that the apple futures price will mostly maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The index of Wangxingtang is 112.24, up 0.05; the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.48, up 0.08. The prices of apples in various regions such as Qixia, Luochuan, Penglai, and Yiyuan remained stable [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 7586, up 16; AP05 closed at 7703, down 2; AP10 closed at 7690, up 16. The spreads between different contracts also changed, for example, AP01 - AP05 increased by 18, and AP05 - AP10 decreased by 18 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01 decreased by 16, and against AP10 decreased by 16, while against AP05 increased by 2 [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of June 18, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 1.1649 million tons, a decrease of 109,700 tons from the previous week. The shipment speed was basically the same as last week but slower than the same period last year [4]. - **Market Transaction**: Yesterday, the mainstream transaction price of apples in the origin was stable, the cold - storage transaction was average, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was not high. Affected by seasonal fruits, the shipment speed was slow, and the price in individual markets declined slightly. The profit of storage merchants of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.9 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.2 yuan per catty from last week [7]. - **Spot Price in Shandong**: The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The prices of different grades and varieties of apples were given, and the purchasing of merchants was cautious with low trading volume [7]. - **Trading Logic**: Low inventory supports the opening price of early - maturing apples, poor fruit - setting in Shaanxi, and the futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased strategy on dips for unilateral trading; suggest waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options trading [9]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, the spread between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in some markets, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple shipment volume, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [13][15][21][27].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 06 月 23 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 112.24 | 112.19 | 0.05 | 洛川半南品纸袋70 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.52 | 7.49 | 0.03 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 关注早熟品种开称价 2025年6月16日-6月22日 2025年6月22日 —苹果周报 • 招商农业-李依穗 • liyisui1@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：0755-82959861 • 执业资格号：Z0020997 苹果周观点：关注早熟品种开称价 ➢ 风险提示：天气。 2 4 ➢ 市场表现：过去一周主力合约收7725元/吨，周涨幅0.09%。山东烟台栖霞苹果价格平稳，80#以上一二级货源果农货片红3.5-3.8元 /斤，条纹3.5-4.5元/斤，客商货片红4.0-4.5元/斤，条纹4.0-5.0元/斤。统货2.8-3.0元/斤，三级客商货2.5-3.0元/斤。 1 ➢ 供给方面：截至2025年6月20日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为116.49万吨，库存量环比减少10.97万吨，处于历史低位水平。 ➢ 需求方面：截至2025年6月20日，全国主产区苹果冷库出库量为10.97万吨，库存量较上周增加0.23万吨。 ➢ 基本面：早熟品种占苹果总产量约20%，早熟品种的开称指向新季苹果的现货价格。陕西、陕西地区的早熟品种因成熟时间较早， 今年大风干旱影响对早熟品种影响 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 苹果市场周报 多空因素交织，苹果宽幅震荡 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 关 注 微信服 务 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况及期权 4、期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2510价格上涨，周度上涨1.92%。 行情展望：新季苹果方面，产区套袋工作收尾，产量问题逐渐明朗，根据市场对 陕西苹果主产区坐果和套袋情况调研来看，陕西今年坐果套袋情况较去年同期减 产幅度不会特别大，预计在5%-10%。截至2025年6月18日，全国主产区苹果冷库 库存量为116.49万吨，环比上周减少10.97万吨，走货速度较上周基本持平，同比 去年同期有所减缓。山东产区库容比为16.43%，较上周减少0.86%，去库速度环 比减慢。山东产区目前处于农忙阶段，整体交易清淡。陕西产区库容比为8.9%， 较上周减少0.76%，走货较上周表现略慢。其他水果竞争和替代增加，苹果需求清 单，走货速度放缓，而且农忙结束后，果农卖货意愿或有所好转，令苹果价格承 压，不过当前库存较低，对价格仍有支撑， ...