中国经济增长5.3%，美国仅1.25%- 这组数字一公布，华尔街的交易大厅里静得出奇。 人民日报罕见发文向全球通告这一"喜讯"，而特朗普却在任期过半时就匆忙指定了接班人万斯。 这场持续数年的贸易博弈，真正的赢家到底是谁？美国的如意算盘为何打得如此响亮，结果却如此打脸？ 5.3%对1.25%，这组数字让华尔街沉默了 数字从来不会撒谎。当国际货币基金组织公布这组对比数据时，全世界都看到了答案。 中国上半年经济增长5.3%，这个数字在全球主要经济体中依然亮眼，制造业和消费保持稳定增长。 反观美国，同期GDP增长仅为1.25%，消费支出和投资双双放缓，经济活力明显不足。这种巨大差距，用脚趾头都能想明白说明了什么。 更让人玩味的是，就在这组数据公布后不久，人民日报发文向全球通告。 "中国市场是全球增长最快的增量区"，这句话不是吹牛，而是铁一般的事实。 前言 美国商务部长卢特尼克还在为每月500亿美元的关税收入沾沾自喜，殊不知这点钱在中国5860亿美元的贸易顺差面前，简直是小巫见大巫。 华尔街的分析师们心里都明白，数字背后隐藏的真相。 特朗普当初拍胸脯说要通过关税平衡贸易，让制造业回流美国。 结果呢？美国企业成本飞涨，老 ...

2025年4月的白宫椭圆形办公室里，特朗普对着幕僚们断言： "中国会是第一个举手投降的。"他手中挥舞着中美贸易逆差数据，坚信庞大的出口额意味着中 国对美国市场的"绝对依赖"。 彼时，这份充满傲慢的预判，被视作开启对华关税战的"底气"。 然而，现实的剧本却朝着完全相反的方向展开。当中方的反制清单落地时，不仅特朗普的幻想碎了一地，更牵一发而动全身，重塑了全球经济博弈的格局。 而这场由误判点燃的较量，至今仍在改写大国竞争的逻辑。 美国的预判 2025年4月，特朗普政府突然宣布对中国输美商品加征"对等关税"，税率从34%飙升至84%，涉及金额超3000亿美元，这一举措被特朗普称作"让美国重新伟 大的关键一步"。 其团队私下推演的剧本是， 中国对美出口占总出口的19%，如此规模的依赖足以让北京在三个月内妥协。 《纽约时报》披露的内部文件显示，美方决策的核心依据是2024年中美贸易逆差数据，中国对美顺差达2758亿美元，美方认为，中国比美国更需要这场交 易。 但第一个意外很快出现。 4月10日，中国商务部公布对等反制清单，对美国所有商品加征对等关税，涉及金额与美方完全对等。 这场"以牙还牙"的反击，让白宫的"速胜剧本"首 ...

Core Points - The ongoing economic and geopolitical rivalry between the US and China has created significant uncertainty in the global economy, affecting ordinary citizens with high prices and economic instability [1] - The trade conflict is rooted in long-standing tensions that escalated after the Trump administration adopted a comprehensive strategy to pressure China, starting from January 2025 [2] - The US has implemented a series of tariffs and trade restrictions on Chinese goods, significantly increasing the total tariff level and impacting Chinese exports [2] - In response to US actions, China has enacted strong countermeasures, including export bans on critical materials and increased tariffs on US goods, which have disrupted US supply chains [6][10] - The trade war has led to a rise in effective tariff rates in the US, reaching the highest level since 1934, and has resulted in market volatility and negative employment data [12] Trade Policies - The US imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports in March 2025, which escalated to a total tariff level of 54% by April 2025, affecting various sectors from agriculture to electronics [2] - The US further increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 104% and initiated investigations into Chinese maritime logistics and shipbuilding, targeting key industries [2] - China's countermeasures included banning exports of gallium, germanium, and other critical materials to the US, which are essential for various advanced technologies [6] Geopolitical Dynamics - The US has sought to strengthen alliances in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China's influence, criticizing China's actions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea [5] - Despite tensions, there remains potential for cooperation between the US and China in areas such as climate change and technology exchange, depending on the US's approach [14] Economic Impact - The trade war has resulted in an additional tax burden of approximately $1,300 per American household due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [2] - The escalation of tariffs has led to increased costs for US consumers and businesses, contributing to economic instability and market downturns [12]

8月7日，苹果公司宣布重大投资计划，承诺向美国追加1000亿美元投资，显著提速其本土化战略进程。至此，苹果未来四年在美国的总投资承诺将达到 6000亿美元。 与此同时，苹果揭晓了一项雄心勃勃的"美国制造计划"（American Manufacturing Program，AMP），旨在将更多供应链环节与先进制造能力引入美国本 土。该计划不仅将深化苹果自身在美国各地的投资布局，更将有力推动其全球合作伙伴在美国扩大关键零部件的生产。 作为人才战略的核心，苹果计划未来四年在美国直接创造2万个就业岗位，其中绝大多数将聚焦于研发、芯片工程、软件开发以及人工智能与机器学习等 尖端技术领域。 几乎就在同时，特斯拉在美国的供应链出现危机。据美国媒体报道，特斯拉在北美市场被指长期存在拖欠供应商账款的问题，这一行为已经致使至少两家 美国小型企业走向破产。 回顾过去五年，在得州，特斯拉被承包商提起的留置权索赔总额累计超过了1.1亿美元。与之形成鲜明对比的是，苹果公司在该州雇佣当地承包商建设总 部时，拖欠的留置权款项仅约120万美元，还不到特斯拉拖欠金额的十分之一。 一位与特斯拉有过合作的分包商透露，在奥斯汀，特斯拉让供应商难堪是出 ...

【文/观察者网 观察者网 编辑/高莘】据俄罗斯卫星通讯社援引俄罗斯工业贸易部的数据显示，2025年1—7月俄罗斯小轿车的销量为64.67万辆，同比下降 24%；1—7月卡车的销量为3.14万辆，同比大跌55%，7月单月的销量更大跌61%至4400辆； 另据路透社此前报道，俄罗斯最大的卡车制造商卡玛斯（KAMAZ）于7月末宣布自8月1日起每周实行4天工作制，直至市场需求恢复。俄罗斯另外两大汽车 巨头AvtoVAZ和高尔基汽车厂（GAZ）也计划在8月或9月实行4天工作制以应对危机。 俄工贸部还表示，俄罗斯1—7月电动汽车销量为6106辆，同比大跌51%。 此外在今年上半年，俄罗斯市场共售出4.7万辆豪华品牌新车，同比大跌41%；大巴车的销量也大跌52%至5900辆。 7月22日，俄罗斯牧首基里尔参观卡玛斯工厂 视觉中国 卡玛斯还将上半年销量暴跌归咎于国内汽车进口商的"短视政策"，指责其去年进口过多汽车导致需求过剩。据卡玛斯透露，目前库存卡车数量超过3万辆， 即使以倾销价格出售也没有市场需求。 近年来，中国汽车品牌在俄罗斯市场增长迅猛。2024年，中国出口俄罗斯的汽车数量一度达到128万辆，创下历史新高。 近一两年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade protectionist policies of the Trump administration, characterized by high tariffs, have significantly disrupted the global economic landscape, escalating tensions and testing the global trade order [2][8]. Group 1: Tariff Policies - The Trump administration initiated a tariff war starting in late July, imposing tariffs as high as 250% on various countries, including the EU, UK, Israel, Japan, and India [2]. - Initially, tariffs ranged from 10% to 41%, targeting economic partners and allies that had previously reached trade agreements with the U.S. [2]. - The announcement of additional tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals was made on August 5, with claims that it would promote domestic production and lower drug prices, despite expert opinions suggesting it would harm American consumers [2][3]. Group 2: Global Reactions - Countries that previously conceded to U.S. tariffs, such as Japan and the EU, are now reflecting on their decisions, realizing that concessions did not prevent further tariff impositions [5][6]. - Brazil and other nations are preparing countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, indicating a shift towards resistance rather than submission [5][6]. - The ongoing tariff policies are causing negative impacts on the U.S. economy, with rising costs leading to potential layoffs and business closures [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - The current situation presents a critical juncture for nations to choose between continued submission or collective resistance against U.S. trade policies [6][8]. - The trade dynamics suggest that a united front among countries could diminish the effectiveness of Trump's tariff strategies, promoting a return to a more balanced global trade order [8].

Group 1 - Industrial Fulian reported a record high revenue of 360.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, with a net profit of 12.11 billion yuan, up 38.6% [2] - In Q2, the revenue exceeded 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 200.34 billion yuan, a 35.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.88 billion yuan, up 51.1% [2] Group 2 - A-share indices collectively rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year, up over 2% for the week [3] - The market is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, with quality tech assets expected to yield significant excess returns in Q3 [3] Group 3 - Major foreign investment projects are progressing steadily, with new policies to encourage foreign investment being implemented [4] - Cities like Wenzhou, Dalian, and Xuzhou have GDP growth rates exceeding 6%, with potential to join the "trillion-dollar club" by year-end [4] Group 4 - In July, the consumer price index (CPI) in Guangdong turned positive, rising 0.5% month-on-month, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% [5] - Hong Kong saw a record number of registered local companies, exceeding 1.5 million, with significant direct investment and job creation [5] Group 5 - Nearly 50 A-share companies have disclosed interim dividend plans, with major firms like China Mobile announcing substantial dividends [6] - The Hong Kong Investment Management Company is focusing on nurturing local startups and investing in quality enterprises [7] Group 6 - The A-share market is expected to face some resistance in the short term but remains in a bull market, with industry rotation accelerating [8] - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of 900.8 billion HKD, indicating a strong preference for Chinese concept stocks [8] Group 7 - The new science and technology bond policy has led to a significant issuance of 880.66 billion yuan in three months, with a low average coupon rate [21] - Gold futures prices reached a historical high, driven by geopolitical factors and central bank policies [22]

全球化裂痕：谁在真正"收割"？ 特朗普坚称高额关税将"重振美国制造业"，然而，现实却与他的豪言壮语大相径庭。5至7月美国新增就 业人数创疫情以来新低，经济学家指出，若制造业真正回流，关税收入反而会下降，这暴露出"制造业 回流"的虚妄。 与此同时，供应链正在加速"去美化"。越南、泰国等国正积极吸引外资工厂迁移，欧盟 企业也减少对美出口，转而寻求亚洲新兴市场。特朗普的"午夜宣言"，实则正在重构全球贸易规则，而 这重构并非建立在互利的基石上，而是以牺牲全球经济稳定为代价。 盟友翻脸与绝地反击：反制措施席卷全球 瑞士的钟表商们正经历着"39%噩梦"。瑞士商品税率飙升至发达国家最高的39%，瑞士总统紧急访美寻 求谈判，却遭遇闭门羹。瑞士钟表业面临数十亿美元的损失，全国GDP可能萎缩0.8%。 巴西则以雷霆 之势予以反击。关税生效24小时内，巴西宣布对美国大豆加征40%的报复性关税。巴西总统卢拉更与印 度总理莫迪联手，商讨共同反制措施，并呼吁金砖国家联合应对美国的单边主义行径。 中国则早已采 取了"精准拆弹"的策略。早在4月份，中国便将美国商品关税提升至84%，并对稀土和半导体设备实施 出口管制，同时联合俄罗斯、印度在W ...

贸易战从来没有赢家——它削弱全球经济活力，发起方自身最终也会付出沉重代价。开放合作才是实现 共同繁荣的唯一正确道路 巴西高度重视与中国等主要贸易伙伴的合作。巴中两国在农业、能源、基础设施、绿色转型等领域的互 补性强，双方近年来不断深化产业链、供应链的衔接与协作。这不仅体现了南南合作的潜力，也为全球 经济治理贡献了新兴市场国家的智慧与力量。 展望未来，巴西将继续坚持开放、包容、透明的原则，与所有愿意推动开放贸易和可持续发展的伙伴携 手合作。国际社会应共同反对滥用关税，通过对话与协商化解分歧，不断完善全球治理机制，让贸易真 正成为连接各国、促进福祉的桥梁。 （文章来源：人民日报） 事实证明，开放合作才是实现共同繁荣的唯一正确道路。过去几十年，不少亚洲和拉美国家借助稳定的 国际贸易环境，实现了快速增长和大规模减贫，发达国家也通过海外投资与技术输出获得了可观回报。 多边贸易体制提供了规则的稳定性，使各国能够充分发挥比较优势，实现互利共赢。当前，面对关税滥 用和贸易保护措施，国际社会应保持清醒、积极应对、加强合作，共同反对保护主义，推动全球治理体 系的改革与完善。 关税不应成为胁迫他国、干涉他国内政的工具。当前，巴西正 ...

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Trump's willingness to visit China is contingent on reaching a favorable agreement, indicating a fluctuating stance on U.S.-China relations [1][3] - Ongoing trade negotiations have seen three rounds of discussions, with persistent disagreements on issues like agricultural procurement and market access [3] - The U.S. has tightened export restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chips to China, raising questions about the sincerity of U.S. negotiations [3] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on approximately $120 billion worth of Chinese imports, with rates as high as 250% on certain products like chips and pharmaceuticals [3][4] - The pharmaceutical sector is a key target, as 35% of U.S. prescription drug imports come from China, and high tariffs could significantly increase costs [4] - The unilateral imposition of tariffs contradicts existing agreements, such as the U.S.-EU Digital Products Tariff Reduction Agreement, which includes many of the products targeted by Trump's tariffs [7] Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - Concerns over U.S. trade policy uncertainty have risen, with the EU Trade Representative's office expressing dissatisfaction and indicating a reevaluation of trade agreements with the U.S. [7] - Japanese companies are advised to reduce reliance on U.S. supply chains, while South Korean firms like Samsung are shifting production back to Korea due to tariff concerns [7] - China's countermeasures against U.S. tariffs have led to a significant decrease in imports from the U.S. and an increase in exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries, showcasing a successful diversification strategy [9]