Core Insights - The report highlights a significant performance divergence among the funds managed by Beixin Ruifeng, with some equity products achieving returns exceeding 80% while others recorded negative returns, reflecting varying strategies and styles in the current market environment [1][3]. Fund Performance - The top-performing fund, Beixin Ruifeng Advantage Industry (013242.OF), achieved an annual return of 84.45%, with a quarterly scale increase of 0.14 billion, reaching a total of 0.63 billion [2][3]. - Another notable fund, Beixin Ruifeng Quantitative Selection (007808.OF), delivered a 62.80% return, growing its scale to 0.17 billion [3]. - Funds managed by Hu Jianqiang and Yu Junhua, focusing on high-end manufacturing and industry research, also performed well with annual returns of 46.88% and 37.13%, respectively [3]. Consumer Sector Performance - In contrast, the Beixin Ruifeng Preferred Growth Fund (009954.OF) focused on consumer sectors, recorded a negative return of -3.26%, remaining stagnant at a scale of 0.23 billion [4]. - The Beixin Ruifeng Health Life Theme Fund (001056.OF) achieved a positive return of 32.46%, but its scale only increased by 0.01 billion, indicating a disparity in performance among products managed by the same fund manager [4]. Fund Scale and Market Position - The total scale of the nine disclosed products is approximately 3.24 billion, with an average scale of less than 0.4 billion per product, indicating a predominance of small funds [5][6]. - The Beixin Ruifeng Health Life Theme Fund stands out with a scale of 0.90 billion, while several other products remain below 0.7 billion [5]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that the performance divergence among funds is linked to the varying success of different asset styles in the current market [7]. - With the upcoming policy window for the "14th Five-Year Plan," there may be new opportunities for investment in domestic consumption and technological innovation, which are critical for Beixin Ruifeng to enhance its overall performance and scale [7].

Group 1 - The third quarter fund reports have begun to be disclosed, showing strong performance in equity funds due to the robust A-share market, while bond funds are focusing on maintaining stable returns amid market pressures [1][2] - New public funds are increasingly adopting a strategy of limiting initial fundraising sizes, with several well-known fund managers setting lower caps for their new products, leading to rapid completion of fundraising [1][2] Group 2 - The number of private equity firms with over 10 billion yuan in assets continues to grow, reaching 96, with quantitative strategies being the most prevalent among these firms [2] - The introduction of eSIM technology marks a significant shift towards a "no card" era in mobile communications, with advantages such as flexibility and space-saving, although security risks remain a concern [2] Group 3 - Sany Heavy Industry has announced its IPO price range for H-shares, set between 20.30 and 21.30 HKD per share, with a total issuance of approximately 580 million shares [5] - Wintime Technology has faced operational disruptions due to a system shutdown affecting its semiconductor division, prompting a focus on domestic supply chain management [5] - Zhongding Holdings has launched a series of liquid cooling systems for energy storage, leveraging its expertise in thermal management systems [5]

Group 1 - The number of domestic private equity firms with over 10 billion yuan in assets has increased to 96, with 5 new firms added in September 2025 [1] - Among the 96 firms, quantitative strategies dominate, with 45 firms (46.88%) employing this approach, followed closely by 42 firms using subjective strategies [1] - The trend of global expansion is evident, with 65 out of 96 firms (67.71%) obtaining Hong Kong's Type 9 license [1] Group 2 - Stock strategies remain the primary focus for 74 firms (77.08%), while multi-asset and bond strategies are used by 12 and 6 firms, respectively [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average return for 62 reporting firms was 28.80%, with 98.39% of firms achieving positive returns [2] - The performance of quantitative private equity firms was particularly strong, with an average return of 31.90%, surpassing the 24.56% average return of subjective firms [2][3] Group 3 - Among the 32 firms with average returns exceeding 30%, 24 are quantitative firms, representing 75% of this group [3] - Factors contributing to the strong performance of quantitative firms include market style alignment, systematic operations reducing emotional interference, and ongoing strategy iteration and risk control upgrades [3]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly quantitative strategy report on stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, and commodity CTA strategies, covering market reviews, strategy performance tracking, and future strategy recommendations [4][56][71] 1. Stock Index Futures 1.1 Market Review - The market declined significantly last week. Electronics and power equipment contributed to the main decline in each index, while banks contributed to the main increase. The trading volume of each contract increased month - on - month, and the basis of each variety weakened significantly [4] 1.2 Basis Strategy - The basis weakened due to market sentiment. IH remained at a premium, IF at a shallow discount, and IC and IM at a deep discount. The current hedging demand in stock index futures is still mainly short - side. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to build a long - short spread arbitrage position when the discount narrows driven by market sentiment. The roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4] 1.3 Arbitrage Strategy - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: Last week, the performance of each strategy was differentiated. The annualized basis rate factor lost 0.6%, the long - short spread strategy gained 0.4%, and the momentum factor gained 0.8% (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor turned to a long - short spread signal [5] - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: The market style shifted to large - cap stocks. The net value of the inter - variety time - series synthetic strategy lost 0.6% last week. The latest signal of the inter - variety strategy recommends holding an empty position in IC/IF and a 50% long - IM and short - IC position [5] 1.4 Timing Strategy - The daily timing strategy was generally profitable last week. The Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 gained 2.2%, lost 1.0%, gained 0.4%, and gained 2.0% respectively. The latest signal of the timing model is bullish on each index [6] 2. Treasury Bond Futures 2.1 This Week's Strategy Focus - **Basis and Inter - period**: The IRR of Treasury bond futures declined this week, and the inter - period spread fluctuated strongly. Since the continuous decline of IRR has realized the long - short spread profit to a certain extent, the subsequent long - short spread space is relatively limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile operation [56] - **Interest Rate Timing and Hedging Signal**: The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, with strong bearish signals from the macro, production, inventory, and price factors. It is recommended to choose high - duration varieties for hedging [56] - **Futures Timing Strategy**: The multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral. The main bullish factors are the basis factor and the high - frequency factor, while the main bearish factors are the spread factor and the volume - price factor [56] - **Futures Inter - variety Arbitrage Strategy**: The latest signal of the Treasury bond futures inter - variety arbitrage strategy TS - T is neutral, and the T - TL signal is also neutral [56] 3. Commodity CTA 3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Most commodity varieties in the market declined last week, with only a few varieties such as gold, silver, and polysilicon rising. Among the commodity factors, the volume - price trend factors and value factors performed prominently, while the spot - futures basis factors and warehouse receipt factors declined by more than 0.5%. The overall commodity trend may still be highly volatile due to external macro - factor disturbances. Compared with short - cycle strategies, medium - and long - cycle trend - following CTA strategies may face certain risks [71] 3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different strategies have different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, and maximum drawdown. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.3%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.58, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81% [71]

Core Viewpoint - The private equity fund market is experiencing a significant rebound, with new product issuances increasing and many funds surpassing the 10 billion yuan mark [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Product Issuance - In the first three quarters, a total of 8,935 private equity securities products were registered, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 89.38% from 4,718 products [2][3] - The growth in registration numbers is attributed to three main factors: improved market conditions, regulatory guidance enhancing transparency and compliance, and active expansion by institutions [3] - Stock strategies remain the dominant force, with 5,849 products registered, accounting for 65.46% of the total, and showing a year-on-year growth of 99.35% [3] Group 2: Performance of Private Equity Funds - The average return for private equity funds in the first three quarters was 25%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [2][5] - Among the five major strategies, stock strategies led with an average return of 31.19%, with 93.52% of the 5,976 funds achieving positive returns [5][6] - Quantitative long strategies showed exceptional performance, with an average return of 35.95% and a positive return rate of 96.71% [6] Group 3: Growth of Billion-Yuan Private Equity Funds - The average return for the 62 billion-yuan private equity funds reached 28.80%, with 98.39% of them reporting positive returns [7] - A total of 14 funds achieved returns exceeding 40%, while 18 funds had returns between 30% and 40%, indicating strong overall profitability [7] - The number of billion-yuan private equity funds increased to 96 by the end of September 2025, up from 91 at the end of August [8][9] Group 4: Industry Structure and Competition - The registration structure indicates a shift in the competitive landscape, with top quantitative private equity funds dominating the registration rankings [8] - Among the 26 private equity firms with at least 40 registered products, 23 are billion-yuan institutions, highlighting a significant head effect [8] - The industry is witnessing increased concentration, with leading firms expanding while smaller firms actively seek breakthroughs [8]

Group 1 - The private equity fund registration market has significantly rebounded in 2023, with 8,935 private securities funds registered in the first three quarters, a nearly 90% increase compared to 4,718 in the same period last year [1] - The rise in registration numbers is driven by three main factors: improved market conditions, ongoing regulatory efforts enhancing industry transparency, and proactive business expansion by private equity firms [1] - Among the strategies, stock strategy products dominate with 5,849 registrations, accounting for 65.46% of the total, nearly doubling year-on-year, driven by structural market trends in sectors like technology and new energy [1] Group 2 - Multi-asset strategy products follow with 1,278 registrations, representing 14.30% of the total, and showing an 84.68% year-on-year growth, appealing to investors seeking stability amid market fluctuations [2] - Quantitative products have shown remarkable performance, with 3,958 registrations, making up 44.30% of all registered private securities products, more than doubling from 1,953 last year [2] - The surge in quantitative product registrations is attributed to superior performance compared to subjective strategies, advancements in AI and machine learning, and a positive cycle of performance driving scale and registration [2] Group 3 - A total of 2,322 private securities fund managers registered products, with the majority (1,879) registering five or fewer products [3] - Most fund managers (1,560) manage funds below 500 million, while 80 managers oversee over 10 billion, contributing significantly to the total number of registered products [3] - Among the 26 managers with at least 40 registered products, 23 are in the 10 billion category, with 21 being quantitative firms, highlighting the dominance of larger firms in product registration [3]

Group 1 - In September, the enthusiasm for new private equity products surged, with 1,028 private securities funds registered, a year-on-year increase of 171% [1] - Equity strategy private funds dominated the market, with 668 equity strategy products registered, accounting for over 60% of the total [1] - Quantitative products were particularly active, with 364 quantitative private funds registered, representing 35.4% of the total [1] Group 2 - Leading private equity firms maintained a significant advantage in product registration, with Shanghai Liwei leading with 23 products, followed by Maoyuan Quantitative and Shanghai Yinye Investment with 13 and 12 products respectively [2] - Among 27 private equity firms that registered at least 5 products, 16 had assets under management exceeding 100 billion, indicating a concentration of resources [2] - The performance of 57 billion-level private equity firms showed an average return of 24.99% in the first eight months of the year, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Group 3 - The total number of billion-level private equity firms reached 94 by the end of September [3] - Institutional investors continue to dominate the influx of new capital into A-shares, with personal investors' demand for stock assets still accumulating [3] - There is an increasing interest from overseas funds in A-shares, although the overall allocation remains low [3]

Core Insights - The private equity market is showing increased activity, with a significant year-on-year growth in the number of registered private securities funds, despite a month-on-month decline in September [1] Group 1: Market Activity - In September, 1,028 private securities funds were registered, a decrease of 10.22% from August's 1,145 funds, but a substantial increase of 171.24% compared to the same month last year [1] - The stock strategy private equity funds remain dominant, with 668 funds registered in September, accounting for over 60% of the total [1] - Multi-asset strategy funds followed with 155 registrations, while bond strategy and futures/derivatives strategy funds had similar numbers at 71 and 69, respectively [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The strong performance of stock strategies is attributed to a recovering equity market and increased investor confidence, driven by policy support for technology innovation and high-end manufacturing [1] - Quantitative products are particularly active, with 364 registered in September, making up 35.41% of the total [2] - Among quantitative products, stock long-only strategies led with 166 registrations, representing 45.60% of all quantitative products [2] Group 3: Fund Management Landscape - Leading private equity firms continue to dominate in terms of product registration, reinforcing the trend of "the strong getting stronger" [2][3] - In September, Shanghai Liwei Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. led with 23 registered products, followed by Maoyuan Quantitative and Shanghai Yinye Investment with 13 and 12, respectively [2] - Among the 27 firms that registered at least five products, 16 had assets under management exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating a concentration of market power [2][3] Group 4: Quantitative Strategy Appeal - The appeal of quantitative strategies is evident, with 15 out of the 27 firms being quantitative private equity, highlighting their attractiveness in the current market environment [3] - Firms like Maoyuan Quantitative and Beijing Borun Yintai Investment Management registered at least 10 products in September, showcasing the strength of quantitative strategies [3]

Core Insights - In September, a total of 1,028 private securities products were registered, representing a 10.22% decrease from August's 1,145 products, but a significant year-on-year increase of 171.24% compared to 379 products in the same month of 2024 [1] Strategy Distribution - Among the registered products, equity strategies dominated with 668 products, accounting for 64.98% of the total. Multi-asset strategies followed with 155 products (15.08%), while bond strategies (71 products, 6.91%) and futures and derivatives strategies (69 products, 6.71%) were nearly equal in scale. Combination funds were relatively niche with 51 products (4.96%) [1][2] Quantitative Products Performance - Quantitative products showed strong performance in September, with 364 products registered, making up 35.41% of the total. Within this category, equity strategies contributed the most, with 166 long-only quantitative products (45.6%) and 69 market-neutral equity strategies (18.96%). In the futures and derivatives category, quantitative CTA strategies stood out with 45 products (12.36%) [2][3] Manager Distribution - The majority of registered products came from leading private equity firms, indicating a growing industry concentration. The top firm, Liwei Private Equity, registered 23 products, followed by Maoyuan Quantitative (13 products) and Yinye Investment (12 products). Among the 27 firms that registered at least five products, 16 were over 10 billion in assets, while 4 were between 5 billion and 10 billion, with top firms accounting for 74.07% of the total [3][4] Market Trends - Since the "9.24" market event, the profitability of equity markets has gradually become apparent, and policies continue to support sectors like technology innovation and high-end manufacturing. This has enhanced the appeal of equity strategies, leading to a rise in investor willingness to allocate to equity assets, thus maintaining high registration numbers for these strategies [4] Competitive Landscape - The registration advantages of leading private equity firms reflect resource aggregation. Large firms with assets over 10 billion have stronger research capabilities, risk control systems, and brand reputation, making it easier for them to gain recognition and funding. In contrast, smaller firms struggle with fundraising and research resources, further reinforcing the trend of industry concentration [4]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market consists of 2,655 listed companies, with mainland enterprises accounting for 57% [6] - The Hang Seng Composite Index and Hang Seng Index focus on large-cap companies, with average market capitalizations of HKD 1,377 billion and HKD 4,916 billion respectively, translating to approximately RMB 1,256 billion and RMB 4,481 billion [6] - The volatility of the Hong Kong market is significantly lower than that of the A-share market, with a more stable annual return over the past 20 years [6][9] Group 2: Macro Drivers of the Hong Kong Stock Market - The global liquidity measured by the US dollar index has a strong negative correlation of 0.75 with the Hang Seng Index since 2017, indicating that fluctuations in the dollar index significantly impact the Hong Kong market [18][20] - The growth rate of private sector financing is a key macro factor influencing the long-term performance of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with an upward trend generally leading to positive market performance for the Hang Seng Index [25][30] - The upward turning point of Hong Kong's M2 growth rate is a critical indicator for market rebounds, with current M2 growth supporting the positive outlook for the Hang Seng Index [31][33] - The decline in China's sovereign CDS spreads reflects an increase in foreign investor preference for Chinese assets, which has historically correlated with positive performance in the Hong Kong market [34][37] - The increasing share of southbound funds in the Hong Kong market indicates a growing marginal pricing power, with transaction volumes reaching over 50% this year [38][40] Group 3: Monthly Timing Strategy for Hong Kong Stocks - A backtest of five macro indicators from 2014 to 2022 shows that strategies based on the US dollar index, private sector financing growth, Hong Kong M2 growth, sovereign CDS spreads, and net buy transactions from the Hong Kong Stock Connect have annualized returns of 13.3%, 16.8%, 12.8%, 7.8%, and 24.5% respectively [2][43] - The composite macro indicator strategy, which uses an equal-weight voting method, achieved an annualized return of 22.3% in the out-of-sample period, outperforming individual indicators [2][47] - The overall annualized return of the composite strategy since 2014 is 13.9%, with a bullish signal win rate of 64.7% [76]