Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 92, 2025) [1] Report Release Date - June 3, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Fluctuation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Viewpoints - EUA is more correlated with TTF as it returns to the energy fundamentals [2] Market Conditions Auction - On June 2, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.58 euros/ton (0.06%), the auction volume was 324,550 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.5, and the auction revenue was 229.07 million euros [2][4] Secondary Market - EUA futures settlement price was 70.91 euros/ton (0.71%), with a trading volume of 26,300 lots (0.66) [2] Strategy - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Expected to fluctuate within the range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - Weaker renewable energy generation and rising electricity demand in Western Europe are expected to push up the residual load [2] Bearish Factors - The US announced to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, pressuring the European market; The June option expiration date is approaching, with the largest open interest of put options at €65 and call options concentrated at €80 [2] Other Factors - The US draft requires Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities, and Iran rejected the US proposal on its nuclear program; Russia proposed a short and limited ceasefire and agreed to exchange prisoners with Ukraine [2][3] Data Charts - There are 6 charts showing EUA auction price, bid coverage ratio, futures and spot market information, price and basis, and December contract positions [4][5]

金十整理：钢铝关税明起翻倍，美国哪些产品要涨价了？ 1. 汽车和卡车：钢材是汽车的主要材料，约占其重量的60%；新的关税水平可能会使汽车价格上涨2000 至4000美元。 2. 铝罐食品和饮料：50%的关税或使每罐食品/饮料的价格提高约1美分，此前对铝征收25%的关税，在 2018-2022年期间给美国饮料行业造成了17亿美元的损失。 3. 主要家用电器：冰箱、洗碗机和洗衣机等主要家用电器在一定程度上依赖钢铁，此前25%的钢铝关 税，让这些家用电器的价格在2018年6月至2019年4月期间上涨了5%至10%。 ...

5月底，美国总统特朗普威胁要将钢铝关税翻倍至50%。 据媒体报道，美国在致谈判伙伴的信函中敦促各国在周三前提出最佳关税方案。 道指目前下跌约100点，"特朗普关税输家指数"目前跌1.2%，成分股Fluence Energy跌5.6%，AEO跌 4.7%，纽威跌4.5%，Rivian跌3.4%。 ...

Group 1 - U.S. Steel Corporation (X) is currently down 0.4%, narrowing its cumulative gain over the last five trading days to 3.1% [1] - Mexican President López Obrador is awaiting U.S. President Trump's announcement to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% on June 4 [1] - A meeting was held on June 2 between López Obrador and Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard to discuss the potential impact of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures fell over 0.3% following President Trump's announcement to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% [1] - Spot gold increased by 0.4%, reaching $3,329 per ounce [1] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.8%, priced at $61.96 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.7% after OPEC+ raised oil supply [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative's office announced an extension of the exemptions for China's 301 tariffs related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation, moving the expiration date from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [1][2] - The extension is based on public comments received and ongoing evaluations during the four-year review process, with 164 exclusions extended and 14 new exclusions added [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has repeatedly raised concerns about the 301 tariffs, which have been deemed a violation of WTO rules, highlighting the unilateral and protectionist nature of these measures [1][2][3] Group 2 - President Trump announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, which has drawn strong opposition from the EU and Canada [4][5] - The EU expressed regret over the tariff increase, indicating readiness to implement countermeasures, which could take effect as early as July 14 if no acceptable solution is reached [4] - Canadian industry leaders criticized the tariff increase as a direct attack on Canadian workers, warning of severe impacts on the steel and aluminum sectors and calling for immediate government action to protect jobs [5][6]