Core Insights - Naxin Micro (688052) has launched a series of automotive-grade SerDes chipsets based on a fully domestic supply chain and utilizing the HSMT public protocol [1] - The product line includes a single-channel serializer chip NLS9116 and a four-channel deserializer chip NLS9246, designed for high-speed data transmission in ADAS (cameras, domain controllers) and intelligent cockpit (cameras, displays, domain controllers) systems [1] - The current value of SerDes chips per vehicle is approximately several tens of dollars, with potential for increase as the number of cameras and displays in vehicles rises [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canalys recently released the second evaluation results of the "2025 China ADAS SoC Vendor Leadership Matrix," recognizing seven companies as "Champion Vendors," including Nvidia, Qualcomm, Horizon, Texas Instruments (TI), Mobileye, Ambarella, and Chipone, highlighting their significant contributions to the automotive industry's development [1] Group 1: Evaluation Criteria and Results - The evaluation method for ADAS SoC vendors includes feedback from ADAS Tier 1 suppliers, automotive OEMs, and ecosystem partners, combined with professional assessments of vendors' technical solutions and market strategies [2] - A total of 17 ADAS SoC vendors were covered in this evaluation, with the recognized "Champion" vendors demonstrating industry-leading comprehensive strength across multiple key dimensions, including technological innovation, market performance, collaboration depth, and ecosystem influence [2] Group 2: Market Evolution and Trends - In 2024, China's ADAS technology is expected to accelerate, with mainstream L2 solutions maturing and L2+ features, particularly high-speed NOA (Navigation Assisted Driving), being introduced to more cost-effective models [4] - The ongoing "price war" from 2024 to 2025 is shifting from a price-centric competition to a focus on enhancing product value and technological content, driving manufacturers to accelerate the launch of new products and versions to maintain competitive advantages [4] Group 3: Strategic Importance of ADAS - ADAS is now considered a critical component of automotive strategy, significantly influencing product planning and market advancement strategies, with OEMs actively building scalable ADAS solutions supported by robust SoC chips and software platforms [5] - The optimization of ADAS functions is ongoing to address more complex driving scenarios, enhancing the overall safety and practicality of the systems, making platformization and serialization capabilities of ADAS chips a core demand for OEMs [5] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Global Expansion - As NOA hardware and software improve and become more widespread, the market is witnessing an influx of participants, with OEMs placing greater emphasis on mass production capabilities and rapid iteration of AI models and algorithms to enhance ADAS system effectiveness [6] - With China becoming the world's largest automotive exporter, Chinese automakers are actively expanding into international markets, driving additional demand for ADAS chips, particularly in L2 systems, where SoC vendors offering competitive low to mid-range ADAS solutions will gain a significant advantage [6] Group 5: Global Market Adaptation - The scalability of ADAS SoCs is becoming a crucial success factor, requiring vendors to possess a global perspective in technology and solution design to meet diverse regional demands and standards [7] - Despite challenges posed by changes in U.S. tariffs and potential countermeasures from China, these dynamics present opportunities for innovation and strategic adjustments within the global automotive industry [7]

Champions冠军 持续展现出卓越的综合实力，通过高效的协同合作推动行业进步，充分发挥自身优势，保障 业务的稳定持续，并通过有竞争力的技术方案与前瞻性的战略升级，加速市场拓展，在ADAS SoC领域树立了 标杆地位。 其他厂商则被划分为 Contenders竞争者 （需要提高竞争力和/或改善合作伙伴关系的市场领跑厂商）、 Scalers攀登者 （具备吸引生态伙伴合作特质的潜在"新星"厂商）以及 Foundations初级者 （合作伙伴满意度 较低和/或承诺不足的厂商）。 Canalys近日发布《2025年中国ADAS SoC供应商领导力矩阵》第二期评估结果，共七家厂商荣膺"冠军厂 商"称号，分别是：英伟达、高通、地平线、德州仪器（TI）、Mobileye、安霸和芯擎科技。 该报告通过对厂商在先进ADAS辅助驾驶系统领域的市场表现与合作能力进行综合评估，表彰他们在推动汽车 行业发展方面所做出的突出贡献。其中，英伟达、高通、地平线、德州仪器和安霸成功巩固其领先地位，而 Mobileye与芯擎科技则首次晋级"冠军阵营"，彰显其在中国市场的快速成长与技术突破。 Canalys中国ADAS SoC厂商榜单评选标准 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of $1.7 million, up from $500,000 year-over-year, primarily driven by industrial vertical customers [26][27] - The company experienced a cash burn that remains one of the lowest in the marketplace, with a cash balance of $75 million at year-end [24][29] - The company has extended its cash runway into 2026 following two rounds of investments totaling over $90 million [24][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on automotive OEM programs with seven RFQs and several custom development proposals, while also engaging in industrial opportunities such as Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) and Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) [6][9] - The total addressable market (TAM) for industrial applications is lower than automotive but offers faster revenue potential from multi-year programs [12][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in the defense sector, anticipating increased defense spending under the current administration [15][21] - The competitive landscape includes challenges from Chinese automotive OEMs, which are driving U.S. and European OEMs to expedite their ADAS and EV initiatives [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its near-term revenue opportunities in industrial and defense sectors while adapting to evolving timelines in the automotive industry [21][24] - The new CTO, Glenn De Vos, emphasizes the importance of delivering a complete perception system and advanced features suitable for various markets, including automotive and defense [20][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that automotive OEMs are adjusting their product launch timelines, which has affected revenue expectations [10][21] - The company remains optimistic about its engagements in the industrial sector and expects to see significant revenue from these partnerships in the near future [12][32] Other Important Information - The company has secured production commitments from its manufacturing partner, ZedF, to meet anticipated demand in the industrial vertical [50] - The company plans to maintain a disciplined cost management approach while focusing on operational excellence [23][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much of the $1.7 million revenue in Q4 was from commercial shipments versus R&D work? - The revenue was primarily derived from the sale of sensors to multiple customers, with minimal NRE expected to be pushed to 2025 [34][35] Question: Are the defense opportunities related to ground-based or aerial objects? - The focus is on ground-based applications, with the company working with partners in the military space [37][39] Question: What is the competitive nature of the commercial opportunities? - The company competes against various players but emphasizes its unique capabilities and the value of being a domestic supplier [41][43] Question: Can you clarify the $30 million to $50 million demand from ZedF? - This figure represents anticipated demand over the next 12 to 18 months, with secured production commitments to ensure supply [50] Question: What are the realistic timelines for RFQs converting into revenue? - The timelines for RFQs are elongating due to technical evaluations and the complexity of decisions within OEMs [54][56] Question: How does MicroVision plan to compete with FMCW LiDAR technology? - The company believes that while FMCW technology is gaining traction, it faces significant cost barriers and that its time-of-flight technology remains competitive [90][89]

Asian Autos Li Auto Inc 14 March 2025 Eunice Lee, CFA +852 2123 2606 eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Mika Fu +852 2166 4805 mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com Frankie Fong +852 2123 2637 frankie.fong@bernsteinsg.com Li Auto: Q4 results mixed; New BEVs and Overseas strategy keep us constructive Q4 saw mixed results — vehicle margin miss, operating margin strong. Q4 revenue reached RMB 44.3bn, up 6.1% yoy and 3.3% qoq. Sales volume arrived at 158.7 units, up 20.4% yoy and 3.8% qoq. ASP declined to RMB 268.7k, -12.3% yoy and ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to release two new electric vehicle models in the second half of 2025, which may create surprises. Continuous investment in AI is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [4][5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards from 169.2 billion to 166.2 billion CNY and from 216.2 billion to 215.6 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 244 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 15.1%, 29.7%, and 13.2% respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down from 13.2 billion to 11.2 billion CNY and from 17.8 billion to 16.9 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 22.8 billion CNY, corresponding to EPS of 5.2, 7.8, and 10.4 CNY [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 123.85 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to be 144.46 billion CNY, growing by 16.6%, and for 2025, it is projected at 166.2 billion CNY, with a growth of 15.1% [6] - The net profit for 2023 is 12.198 billion CNY, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 58,494.3%. For 2024, it is expected to be 10.671 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.5%, and for 2025, it is projected at 11.153 billion CNY, with a growth of 4.5% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 22% in 2023, decreasing to 21% in 2024, and further to 20% in 2025, before recovering to 21% in 2026 and 22% in 2027 [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 19.9, 13.3, and 9.9 respectively, indicating a potential undervaluation in the coming years [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to release two new electric vehicle models in the second half of 2025, which may create surprises. Continuous investment in AI is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards from 169.2 billion to 166.2 billion CNY and from 216.2 billion to 215.6 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 244 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 15.1%, 29.7%, and 13.2% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down from 13.2 billion to 11.2 billion CNY and from 17.8 billion to 16.9 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 22.8 billion CNY, corresponding to EPS of 5.2, 7.8, and 10.4 CNY [1] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 123.85 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 144.46 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.6% [5] - The net profit for 2023 was 12.198 billion CNY, showing a staggering year-on-year increase of 58,494.3%. The projected net profit for 2024 is 10.671 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 12.5% [5] - The gross margin for 2023 was 22%, with projections of 21% for 2024, 20% for 2025, and a return to 21% in 2026 and 22% in 2027 [5] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19.9, 13.3, and 9.9 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.907 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.878 billion yuan, up 34.29% year-on-year. The gross margin and net margin were 24.83% and 10.49%, respectively, with increases of 1.40 percentage points and 0.16 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.51% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.74%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 20.50% year-on-year and 22.22% quarter-on-quarter [2][5]. - The company's PCB business showed robust growth, with revenue of 10.494 billion yuan, up 29.99% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 31.62%, an increase of 5.07 percentage points year-on-year. However, the packaging substrate business saw a decline in profitability [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 17.907 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.878 billion yuan. The gross profit margin was 24.83%, and the net profit margin was 10.49% [2][5]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.858 billion yuan and a net profit of 390 million yuan, with gross and net margins of 21.95% and 8.04%, respectively [2][5]. Business Segments - The PCB business generated revenue of 10.494 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.99% with a gross margin of 31.62%. The packaging substrate business had revenue of 3.171 billion yuan, up 37.49%, but with a gross margin of 18.15%, down 5.72 percentage points [10]. - The electronic assembly business achieved revenue of 2.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.20%, with a gross margin of 14.40% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.531 billion yuan, 3.033 billion yuan, and 3.549 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 28.11, 23.46, and 20.05 [10].

Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved total revenue of $58 million, marking a sequential growth of 7.5% and consistent with the midpoint of guidance [5][13] - Non-GAAP gross profit was $29.2 million, resulting in a gross margin of 50.4%, flat sequentially [13] - The company reported a non-GAAP operating loss of $14.2 million, an improvement of 16% sequentially, with a net loss of $15.4 million and a loss per share of $0.07 [14][15] Business Line Performance - The flagship iND880 Vision Processor was selected for applications by a large Korean OEM for a new electric vehicle platform, starting production in 2027 [8] - The company continues to progress with major design wins for General Motors, Toyota, and Ford for its Vision products, with production expected to commence later this year [9] - The 77 GHz radar program is on track for production launch with multiple OEMs, with initial shipments expected in late 2025 [9][10] Market Data - The ultrasonic and radar-based automotive sensing market is projected to grow from $4 billion in 2024 to $6 billion by 2029 [9] - The company noted that inventory levels have significantly improved, although some pockets of inventory still exist [34][40] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term megatrends in ADAS, in-cabin user experience, and electrification, leveraging a differentiated product technology portfolio [7][11] - M&A remains a key strategy to enhance technology and IP portfolio, with a strong balance sheet allowing for potential acquisitions [12] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing market uncertainties due to tariffs and inventory issues, but remains optimistic about growth drivers from new product launches in 2025 [16][17] - The company expects Q1 2025 revenue to be between $52.5 million and $57.5 million, down 5% sequentially but up 5% year-over-year [16] Other Important Information - The company issued $218.5 million in convertible notes, strengthening its cash position to $284.5 million, up from $107.2 million in the prior quarter [15] - The company has initiated an OpEx review, resulting in a $2 million reduction in quarterly non-GAAP operating expenses [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of new products in H2 2025 - Management highlighted multiple products ramping, particularly Vision products and radar, which are expected to significantly contribute to revenue [22] Question: OpEx management program - Management indicated that further reductions in OpEx are expected, with an anticipated $1 million to $2 million in run rate reductions as they approach the second half of 2025 [27] Question: Geopolitical impacts and tariffs - Management noted that current turbulence is short-term, with potential long-term implications still uncertain, but they are prepared for short-term impacts [29][30] Question: Inventory and macro demand - Management acknowledged mixed feedback from peers regarding inventory levels and macro demand, with their own inventory levels having improved [33][34] Question: Geographic performance and policy uncertainty - Management indicated that while the U.S. market is facing significant policy uncertainty, they have seen relative strength in the China market [40][41] Question: Radar launch timeline - Management confirmed that the radar program is still on track for the same schedule as previously indicated, with positive momentum expected [47][48] Question: Gross margin expectations - Management expects incremental improvements in gross margins as the year progresses, although achieving 55% by the end of 2025 remains uncertain [49]