Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the high uncertainty in the global economic outlook and the unpredictability of US trade policies [1] - One reason for not adjusting interest rates is that some data, including inflation, is slightly stronger than expected [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates unchanged in September, contrary to previous predictions of a rate cut [1] - Citigroup forecasts that the Bank of England will begin a series of rate cuts starting in November 2023, continuing until March 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to reassess its interest rate path and clarify the target level for rates [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current interest rate strategy may require adjustments to align with economic conditions [1] - Clear communication regarding the intended interest rate levels is essential for market stability and economic planning [1]

Group 1 - The Dallas Fed's Logan indicated that policymakers may need to keep interest rates unchanged for a while to fully curb inflation, but also suggested the possibility of rate cuts if inflation and the labor market worsen [1] - Logan emphasized that the current economic situation suggests that monetary policy needs to be maintained for a period to stabilize inflation at target levels, while still achieving full employment with moderate tightening [1] - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future actions, with a median forecast in June indicating two rate cuts this year, while some officials expect only one or no cuts at all [1] Group 2 - Recent CPI data showed that core CPI growth in June was below expectations for the fifth consecutive month, but companies are increasingly passing on tariff-related costs to consumers [2] - Logan warned against overconfidence in temporary positive inflation news, citing past instances where initial optimism was followed by inflation rebounds [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been emphasized by Logan and other officials, especially in light of ongoing criticism from Trump regarding interest rate policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The solid economy has provided the Federal Reserve with time to decide on the next steps for interest rate adjustments [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions are strong, allowing the Federal Reserve to evaluate its monetary policy options [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a volatile performance. Due to the release of US tariff policies with high tax rates and the EU's response to impose additional counter - tariff measures on $72 billion worth of US imported goods if trade negotiations fail, there is still high uncertainty as of the current date. Risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a volatile range. Attention should be paid to US CPI data tonight [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Tariff - related Information - Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, 100% secondary tariffs will be imposed on Russia. US officials clarified that in addition to the 100% tariff, secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries purchasing Russian goods [2] - The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil requested the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days. Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - tariff decree regarding US tariffs [2] - The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods [1][2] - The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering implementing zero - tariff policies on more US imported products [2] - The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Interest Rate - related Information - Trump believes that the Fed should lower interest rates below 1%. US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset thinks the Fed should remain independent but is "very wrong" on the tariff issue. Fed's Harker believes there is no urgent need to cut interest rates currently [2]

根据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率已升至94.8%。这一数据较此前有所 上升，显示出市场对美联储短期内保持现有货币政策的强烈预期。 据悉，美联储7月降息25个基点的概率仅为5.2%。这一概率的微小变化反映出市场对美联储即将到来的 政策决策有着相对明确的判断。 与此同时，美联储9月的利率决策预期呈现更大的不确定性。维持利率不变的概率为36.9%，而累计降 息25个基点的概率达到60.0%。累计降息50个基点的概率相对较低，为3.2%。 委员会成员表示，经济前景的不确定性虽有所减弱，但仍然居高不下。在考虑进一步调整利率区间的幅 度和时机时，美联储将仔细评估后续经济数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡状况。 美联储的这一政策立场反映出其对当前经济形势的审慎评估。维持利率不变有助于支持经济复苏，并避 免过快的利率调整对市场产生冲击。 来源:金融界 这种概率分布表明市场普遍认为美联储可能在秋季开始调整货币政策。从近期数据变化来看，7月14日 时美联储维持利率不变的概率为93.3%，而到7月15日这一概率已上升至94.8%。 美联储在最近公布的会议纪要中明确表示，将继续维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，美联储应将利率降至1%以下。 ...

美国股市已重回历史高位附近。接下来的一周，更为繁忙的经济和财报日程将为投资者提供更多需要关 注的信息。首先，周二公布的CPI数据将为本周的经济议程定下基调。CPI将是投资者和政策制定者需 要考量的重要数据指标，而美联储的下一次利率决策将在不到两周的时间内到来。美股最新财报季也将 于本周拉开序幕。 财报季来袭，银行股打头阵 在财报方面，美股最新财报季将于本周拉开序幕。跟以往一样，所有美国主要银行本周都将首先公布业 绩。投资者对华尔街IPO和并购市场的热情再度高涨，其中，富国银行(WFC.US)摆脱了长达十年更为严 格的监管限制这一情况也可能会成为关注焦点。 对于华尔街银行的最新财报，大摩指出，资本市场已重新活跃起来，预计股票交易将十分活跃，投资银 行业务收入将高于管理层的预期；其次，由于近期的压力测试后资本要求有所降低，大摩预计管理层将 开始公布股票回购计划及管理缓冲措施的相关情况。 与此同时，奈飞(NFLX.US)的财报将拉开美国大型科技公司财报季的序幕，阿斯麦(ASML.US)和台积电 (TSM.US)也将公布有关人工智能相关芯片热潮的重要进展。百事公司(PEP.US)、强生(JNJ.US)、美联航 (UA ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests it is time to consider adjusting interest rates [1] Group 1 - Daly indicates that the current economic conditions warrant a reassessment of interest rate policies [1] - The statement reflects a broader sentiment within the Federal Reserve regarding potential changes in monetary policy [1] - This consideration comes amid ongoing discussions about inflation and economic growth [1]