Group 1: Daily News Summary - From December 29th, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army organized military exercises in multiple regions around Taiwan, with live - fire shooting on December 30th from 8:00 to 18:00, aiming to safeguard national sovereignty [2] - The State Council Tariff Commission announced the 2026 tariff adjustment plan on December 29th, with 935 items to have lower import provisional tax rates starting from January 1st, 2026 [2] - The Central Rural Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 29th to 30th, deploying 2026's "Three Rural" work [3] - On January 1st, 2026, a new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operation mechanism, and ecosystem will be launched, entering the digital deposit money era [3] - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung will visit China from January 4th to 7th, 2026, which is his first visit to China after taking office [4] - Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to attack President Putin's residence, while Kiev refuted it, adding uncertainty to the peace prospects in Ukraine [4] - US President Trump said the US had "struck" an area in Venezuela and threatened to attack Iran if it rebuilds its nuclear project. He also threatened to sue Fed Chair Powell and plans to announce the next Fed Chair in January [5] Group 2: Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the market rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.1423 trillion yuan. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose by 0.26%, 0.06%, 0.38%, and 0.04% respectively [6] - Overseas macro - environment is friendly, and China usually achieves an economic "good start" in Q1. The macro - policy will be positive and loose at the end of the year and the beginning of the next year, which is conducive to the recovery of market risk appetite. The spring offensive in 2026 started in December 2025 [7] - Investors are advised to focus on the central bank's liquidity management, overseas market performance after Christmas and New Year, and the performance of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks after the resumption of north - bound trading. Also, pay attention to sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, PCB upstream, and embodied fields, and allocate non - bank sectors [7] Group 3: Treasury Futures - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 3125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 593 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2532 billion yuan. The money market was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate was 1.24% [9] - Since December, the bond market has been greatly affected by news. The short - term upward momentum of the bond market is limited due to the delay of reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations and the strong performance of the equity market [9] - The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate before new drivers emerge. It is recommended to sell high and buy low and operate with a light position [9] Group 4: Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, the precious metals sector weakened significantly. Platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit down for two consecutive days, and Shanghai gold and silver futures fell by 3.11% and 4.03% respectively [12][13] - Speculative funds are retreating. The CME's initial position data on the 29th showed that positions in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium were all reduced [13] - After the overseas December gold, silver, and palladium futures deliveries, the non - exceeding - expected delivery data and relatively low ETF margin - lending rates indicate that the overseas spot shortage has not yet formed. The market is expected to have potential due to low global visible inventories and low registered warehouse receipts of Cmx silver futures [13] - It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits before the holiday and hold long positions with a light position (de - leveraged) during the holiday. After stabilization, the fundamental strength is expected to be silver > gold > platinum > palladium [13] Group 5: Future 24 - Hour Key Data - Tomorrow (January 1st): At 08:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting. At 21:30, the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US Q3 real GDP, the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US Q3 core PCE price index, and the preliminary monthly rate of the US October durable goods orders will be announced. At 22:15, the US October industrial production monthly rate will be released. At 23:00, the US December Conference Board consumer confidence index will be announced [18]

Group 1: Industry Developments - The ITER edge local model power supply system (ELM-PS) cash contract was successfully awarded to a consortium led by the Southwest Institute of Nuclear Physics, covering the design, manufacturing, and installation of 27 adjustable output power supplies[6]. - The Chengdu quasi-symmetric stellarator project has completed its main structure, expected to operate by 2027, filling a significant research gap in China[6]. - New breakthroughs in neutral beam injection technology by New Wave Fusion achieved a total ion source power of 5MW and an injection power of 2.5MW, meeting design goals and enhancing plasma heating capabilities[6]. Group 2: Investment Events - Beijing Zero Point Energy Technology Co., Ltd. completed over 50 million yuan in angel round financing, focusing on low-cost, high-parameter controllable nuclear fusion technology[8]. - The company aims to use this funding to develop its first experimental device for key verification experiments in magnetic zero-point fusion technology[8]. Group 3: Risk Factors - Potential risks include underperformance of industrial policies and delays in technological breakthroughs and cost reductions[8].

国防车工 相关研究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 看好 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 班牙/分出京 申万宏源研究微信服务号 近期军工受订单及业绩等不确定性影响进行调整,但我们认为军工调整逐渐结束,军工 ● 进入筑底上升期:短期来看,年末订单交付加速,四季度业绩预期环比改善,目"十五 五"规划持续推进,一季度起订单有望从"点状"到"线状"乃至"面状"落地;中长 期看，由于地缘政治不确定性加剧，消耗类武器装备持续放量，以及军贸需求加大带来 巨大投资机会。建议重点关注军工底部配置时机,细分方向关注新型主战装备、消耗类 武器、军贸、军工智能化等领域投资机会；同时重视商业航天、深空经济、可控核聚变 等主题性外延投资机 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the high energy release from nuclear fusion, particularly the deuterium-tritium reaction, which is currently the mainstream approach due to its efficiency and lower fuel demand [3][12] - Deuterium-tritium fusion releases energy equivalent to 11.2 tons of standard coal per gram, which is about four times the energy released from one gram of uranium-235 fission [3][12] - The advantages of deuterium-tritium fusion include abundant fuel availability, high technical feasibility, and significant energy gain potential, making it a viable path for achieving net energy gain and commercial power generation [3][12] Group 2 - Global electricity demand driven by data centers is projected to double from approximately 415 TWh to about 945 TWh by 2030, with a growth rate of around 15% per year, significantly outpacing other sectors [4][13] - Controlled nuclear fusion is seen as an ideal energy solution amidst rising electricity demand and carbon neutrality goals, with advancements in technology moving towards stable and economical operation [4][13] - Major projects like EAST and ITER are progressing towards achieving long-term stable operation and energy gain targets, with domestic and international companies actively pursuing fusion power generation [4][13] Group 3 - The value of midstream equipment manufacturing in the tokamak device sector is significant, with over 50% of the value chain attributed to midstream components such as vacuum chambers and superconducting magnets [5][14] - In the ITER project, the magnet system accounts for the highest value share at 28%, while other components like vacuum chamber internals and heating systems also contribute significantly [5][14] - The DEMO demonstration project is expected to shift focus towards high-temperature superconducting technology, further enhancing the value of midstream manufacturing [5][14] Group 4 - Domestic capital expenditure in the nuclear fusion sector is expected to exceed 95 billion yuan over the next five years, benefiting local companies involved in key projects [6][15] - Major projects like CFETR are estimated to require around 100 billion yuan in investment, with significant contributions from domestic enterprises in both upstream materials and midstream equipment manufacturing [6][15] - Companies such as Western Superconducting, Antai Technology, and China Nuclear Power are positioned to benefit from the ongoing advancements and investments in the nuclear fusion industry [6][15]

Market Overview - In December, the A-share market showed a recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,959.62 points, up 1.83% from the end of November. The ChiNext Index and CSI 500 Index recorded significant gains [16][17] - The market liquidity decreased in December, influenced by year-end capital recovery and reduced risk appetite among investors. The total amount of A-share lock-up releases increased significantly, leading to net selling by major shareholders [24][27] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly in commercial aerospace, terahertz technology, and controllable nuclear fusion, saw active trading in December. The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological innovation, which is expected to sustain investor interest in these areas [4][5] - Among the major sectors, telecommunications, defense, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials led the gains, with telecommunications achieving the highest increase of 14.35% [17][21] Policy Analysis - The central government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply. This is anticipated to stimulate consumption and investment in related sectors [49][50] - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for innovation-driven growth and the development of new productive forces, particularly in artificial intelligence and renewable energy sectors [50][51] Valuation Levels - As of December 25, the dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the ChiNext Index is at a historical high, positioned at the 90.74th percentile. Most major indices saw an increase in their historical valuation percentiles compared to the previous month [43][44] - In terms of industry valuation, 21 sectors experienced an increase in valuation levels, with retail, telecommunications, electronics, and computing exceeding the 50th percentile of their historical P/E ratios [44][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [26]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Defense Military Index rising by 6% last week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [1][5]. - The report suggests that the military sector is entering a recovery phase, driven by accelerated order deliveries and improved performance expectations for the fourth quarter [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance the quality and quantity of military capabilities, indicating a new growth cycle for the industry [4]. - There is a significant investment opportunity in the military sector due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties and rising demand for consumable military equipment [4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on new combat equipment, consumable weapons, military trade, and military intelligence as key investment areas [4]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense Military Index outperformed the market, with a 6% increase, ranking second among 31 major industry sectors [5]. - The average increase for the civilian-military integration index was 8.45%, indicating strong performance in this segment [5]. - Top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Shenjian Co. (61.2%), Aerospace Engineering (43.39%), and China Satellite (36.24%) [12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense Military Index is 88.65, indicating it is in the upper range historically, suggesting potential for further growth [13][19]. - The report notes a divergence in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [13][19].

Core Insights - The year 2025 is marked by significant technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace, reshaping economic and social development [1] - The technological wave is not only generating new productivity but also driving structural market trends, providing key coordinates for future investment directions [2] Group 1: Key Technological Trends - AI agents are evolving into autonomous partners, significantly lowering the barriers for AI technology development and application, leading to a surge in market expectations for Chinese tech innovation [3] - The supernode architecture is emerging as a critical breakthrough, integrating hundreds of chips into efficient computing units, paving a differentiated development path in global computing power competition [4] - The PCB industry is experiencing a technological leap, evolving towards higher layers, density, and reliability, marking China's transition from a manufacturing center to an innovation source in high-end manufacturing [5] Group 2: Strategic Developments in Computing and Energy - AI computing power is becoming a strategic digital foundation in international tech competition, with China's "East Data West Computing" strategy accelerating the construction of a green computing network [6] - Co-packaged optics (CPO) technology is crucial for enhancing computing efficiency, reshaping value distribution in the optical communication supply chain [7] - Controlled nuclear fusion is on the verge of breakthroughs, with significant advancements in China's "artificial sun" projects, attracting capital market attention [10] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace and Robotics - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a phase of intensive launches, with satellite internet constellations rapidly expanding, marking the beginning of a trillion-dollar space economy [11] - The humanoid robotics industry is reaching a turning point, with significant events indicating a shift towards mass production and application expansion [12] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The digital economy is transitioning to a strategic phase, integrating AI and data as core drivers, reshaping production and consumption efficiency [9] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise from the structural changes in flow logic due to the rise of AI, as well as innovations aimed at enhancing overall productivity [15] - The focus for 2026 will include AI deepening integration, autonomous innovation acceleration, and future industry trends, with specific attention to model iteration and cost-effective computing solutions [14][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the rapid changes and disruptions experienced over the past 25 years, emphasizing the dual themes of "acceleration" and "disruption" in various fields, particularly in technology and societal structures [4][5]. Group 1: Acceleration and Disruption - The emergence of generative AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, alongside advancements in biomedicine, quantum communication, and brain-machine interfaces, signifies a transformative phase in human technological achievements [4][5]. - The acceleration of human progress is likened to a boiling point that could elevate civilization to a new dimension, while the disruption challenges established norms and moral foundations in global governance and social order [5]. Group 2: Economic and Structural Challenges - The new quarter-century presents challenges related to industrial structure, debt rates, birth rates, and external environments, necessitating a reevaluation of development models [5]. - The article discusses the need for either macroeconomic policies to ensure stability or deeper reforms to unlock potential, highlighting the importance of addressing structural issues through comprehensive reforms [5][6]. Group 3: Individual Response and Agency - Individuals are encouraged to confront the mixed feelings of excitement and anxiety brought about by rapid changes, emphasizing the importance of proactive choices and actions in shaping one's future [6][7]. - The article posits that every small improvement in individual circumstances contributes to a larger collective force, underscoring the significance of personal responsibility and agency in navigating the complexities of the modern world [7].

军工ETF华宝（512810）全面覆盖海陆空天军工核心资产，其中囊括24只商业航天概念股，权重占比合 计28.64%。午后成份股快速分化，6股振幅超10%，中国卫通炸板，中国卫星、航天发展翻绿，臻镭科 技跌5%，铂力特跌4.8%。 分析人士指出，临近年末，在量能进一步萎缩的情况下，短线情绪分化，兑现资金或持续放大板块波 动。就基本面而言，商业航天利好频发，正驶入发展快车道，景气高企。 12月26日，上交所发布《发行上市审核规则适用指引第9号——商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标 准》，并自发布之日起实施。据不完全统计，目前已有至少10家商业航天企业开启IPO进程，5家主营 业务为运载火箭。 申万宏源指出，商业航天、低空经济等新域新质领域贡献增加，共同支撑军工基本面修复预期。湘财证 券也表示，"十五五"国家航天强国战略目标的牵引下，国内政策、资本与技术正形成合力，推动商业航 天从技术验证阶段迈向规模化、商业化运营阶段，因此维持军工行业"增持"评级。 【八一军工，火力全开】代码有"八一"的军工ETF华宝（512810）（原国防军工ETF）覆盖"商业航天 + 可控核聚变 + 低空经济 + 大飞机 + 深海科技 + ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the power equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the commercialization process of controllable nuclear fusion, highlighting the diverse technological routes and the increasing industrial catalysis [5]. - It identifies Tokamak and Field-Reversed Configuration (FRC) as reliable paths for achieving nuclear fusion, with Tokamak being the mainstream route and FRC gaining attention for its potential faster commercialization [13][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Controllable Nuclear Fusion - Nuclear fusion is defined as the process where lighter atomic nuclei combine under extreme temperature and pressure to form heavier nuclei, releasing significant energy, similar to the energy generation mechanism of the sun [13][14]. - Compared to nuclear fission, nuclear fusion offers advantages such as high energy density, safety, cleanliness, and abundant raw materials [18][19]. 2. Tokamak: A Mainstream Route - The Tokamak, developed in the 1950s, utilizes a toroidal vacuum chamber and magnetic fields to confine high-temperature plasma necessary for fusion reactions [49]. - The report outlines the complexity of Tokamak components, emphasizing that the magnet system is crucial for maintaining plasma stability and achieving fusion conditions [52][59]. 3. FRC: A Simpler and Cost-Effective Approach - FRC is noted for its simpler structure and lower investment costs compared to Tokamak, with a potentially faster commercialization timeline [5][18]. 4. Global Fusion Projects - As of December 2025, there are 179 controllable nuclear fusion devices globally, with 82 being Tokamak devices, indicating a robust international effort towards fusion energy [40]. - The report highlights various national projects, including China's BEST and CFEDR, which aim to achieve significant milestones in fusion energy by 2027 and 2030, respectively [43][50]. 5. Key Companies in the Industry - The report suggests focusing on companies with capabilities in critical components for nuclear fusion, such as 合锻智能 (Hefei Intelligent), 联创光电 (Lianchuang Optoelectronics), and 国光电气 (Guoguang Electric), among others [5][44].