宏观经济与市场趋势 - 美国第一季度 GDP 中，进口增长高达 41%，可能预示着需求被提前透支[2] - 美国 GDP 占全球 GDP 的 25%，其经济活动对全球市场有重要影响[2] - 消费者提前购买高价商品以应对潜在关税，可能导致感恩节至圣诞节期间的销售额令人失望[4] 公司表现与策略 - 多数消费电子公司 11 月和 12 月的收入通常占总收入的 30% 到 35%，但由于需求前移，预计将面临挑战[5] - 微软在 2019 年投资了 OpenAI，早于市场对 ChatGPT 的认知[12] - 微软 Azure 云业务的收入在连续三个季度令人失望后，三月份的收入加速增长了 2%[13] - 微软拥有 Stargate 计划，可以选择不处理所有 OpenAI 的流量，并将其转交给其他公司[14] 重点公司分析 - 预计英伟达将受益于推理需求的增长，谷歌第一季度处理的 tokens 数量同比增长了 5 倍[9] - 英伟达的市盈率为 35 倍，并且进行了大规模的资产减记，这被认为是利好因素[11] - Micron 宣布投资 1500 亿美元，预计创造 9 万个就业岗位，但未明确时间表[7]

2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 4.15 个基点报 3.993% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 1 【经济数据】 究 报 告 美国会预算办公室：美国可能会在 8 月中旬用尽避免债务触 及上限的措施 美联储调查：5 月消费者通胀预期全面下降，为 2024 年来 首次 日本修正后 GDP 萎缩收窄至 0.2% 中国对沙特等 4 国试行免签政策 中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.3% 海关总署：前 5 个月货物贸易进出口同比增长 2.5% 5 月全国乘用车市场零售 196 万辆，同比增 13.9% 英国金融监管机构与英伟达达成合作，为银行 AI 实验提供 安全沙盒 亚马逊拟在宾夕法尼亚州投资 200 亿美元用于 AI 和云计算 星巴克中国将发力非咖啡饮品市场 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.39 个基点报 4.079% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.18 个基点报 4.474% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25, ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong will maintain the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, while enhancing its position as a global offshore RMB business center, with plans to introduce more RMB products for overseas investors [1] - The US Senate plans to propose significant revisions to Trump's $3 trillion economic plan, aiming for enactment before July 4, despite criticisms from figures like Elon Musk [1] - The New York Fed's survey indicates a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for May, with the one-year expectation dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%, marking the first decline since 2024 [2] Group 2 - Japan's Cabinet Office revised the first quarter GDP contraction to a 0.2% annual rate, better than the initial estimate of 0.7%, which may support the Bank of Japan's cautious stance [2] - The Japanese government is considering repurchasing previously issued ultra-long bonds at low interest rates, in response to rising yields [3] - Japanese investors sold a record ¥1.48 trillion in German sovereign bonds in April, the largest monthly reduction since 2014, and also sold ¥1.07 trillion in US sovereign bonds, the largest reduction since October of the previous year [3] Group 3 - US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat at 42,761.76 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points [4] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993%, and the 10-year yield down 3.18 basis points to 4.474% [4] Group 4 - International oil prices strengthened, with US crude oil main contract rising by 1.24% to $65.38 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract increasing by 0.96% to $67.11 per barrel [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.19% to 99.01, while non-US currencies generally appreciated against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province is one of the wealthiest provinces in China, with a GDP exceeding 10 trillion yuan since 2020 and projected to reach 13.70 trillion yuan by 2024, making it one of only two provinces alongside Guangdong to surpass this threshold [1][2]. Economic Overview - Jiangsu's GDP in 2020 was only 92.5% of Guangdong's, but by 2024, it is expected to reach 96.7% of Guangdong's GDP [1]. - The per capita GDP in Jiangsu is projected to be 160,700 yuan in 2024, significantly higher than Guangdong's 97,600 yuan, ranking first among all provinces [1]. City-Level Analysis - Jiangsu has 13 prefecture-level cities, all of which are ranked among the top 100 cities in China [1]. - Suzhou leads in GDP among Jiangsu cities with a projected 26,700 billion yuan in 2024, followed by Nanjing at 18,500 billion yuan and Nantong at 16,300 billion yuan [2]. - The cities of Suzhou, Wuxi, and Changzhou, known as the "Taihu Three Dominators," have per capita GDPs exceeding 200,000 yuan, ranking them among the top three in Jiangsu [5]. Fiscal Performance - In terms of fiscal revenue, Suzhou is expected to generate 245.91 billion yuan in 2024, significantly higher than Nanjing and Wuxi, which both exceed 100 billion yuan [8]. Population Metrics - Suzhou has the highest permanent resident population in Jiangsu, projected to reach 12.987 million by the end of 2024, while Nanjing's population is expected to be 9.577 million [11]. Living Standards - Suzhou also leads in disposable income, with a projected figure of 77,500 yuan in 2024, followed by Nanjing and Wuxi, both exceeding 70,000 yuan [14].

[Music] Greetings everyone. It is uh in the know day as well employment Friday uh and uh we have a lot to discuss as usual we'll we'll go through fiscal policy monetary policy economic indicators market indicators and uh we'll talk a little bit about uh some real breakthroughs in terms of uh the market recognizing how much innovation is taking place. Um so uh starting w with fiscal policy and I'll I'll go through and and just uh make a few observations before we flip to charts.So um on fiscal policy, well t ...

英国财政大臣里夫斯：最新的GDP和商业调查显示，我们正开始扭转局面。 ...

金十数据6月5日讯，据外媒报道，美国4月份的贸易逆差创下历史最大降幅，主要原因是进口大幅减 少，这表明一些公司在高额关税实施前提前大量囤积商品的现象突然结束。美国商务部数据显示，商品 和服务贸易逆差较上月缩小了55.5%，降至616亿美元，为2023年以来最低水平，并且完全逆转了第一 季度逆差急剧扩大的情况。4月份贸易逆差的急剧缩小有望使贸易在第二季度对GDP做出重大贡献，此 前贸易逆差扩大，在很大程度上导致一季度年化GDP下降了0.2%。 美国贸易逆差创历史最大降幅 ...

6月5日消息，韩国第一季度GDP同比持平，预估下降0.1%；第一季度GDP环比下降0.2%，预估为 0.2%。 ...

智通财经6月5日电，韩国第一季度GDP同比持平，预估为-0.1%。 ...

May 30, 2025 01:48 PM GMT US Economics | North America Slowing inflation, spending holding up Core PCE was slightly lower than expected in April, showing a clear downward trend before the tariff impulse. Real spending was slightly stronger than expected, though Q1 spending was revised down. Income growth was strong due to one-time payments. The trade deficit narrowed as imports fell sharply. | M Slowing inflation, spending | Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0571 | | --- | --- ...