文字早评 2026/01/09 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、工信部牵头警示锂电池产业非理性竞争 十余家头部企业参与； 4、标普全球预计到 2040 年，人工智能和国防领域增长将使全球铜需求增加 50%；如果不加大回收和开 采力度，预计每年的铜供应缺口将超过 1000 万吨。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.00%/-0.24%/-0.41%/-1.36%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.07%/-0.57%/-1.02%/-3.21%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.22%/-1.14%/-1.89%/-4.70%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.04%/0.01%/-0.28%。 【策略观点】 年初机构配置资金有望重新流入市场，加之政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路 为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周四，TL 主力合约收于 111.000 ，环比变化 0.48%；T 主力合约收于 107.790 ，环比变化 0.17%；TF 主力合约收于 105.600 ，环比变化 0.09%；TS 主力合约收于 102.358 ，环 ...

文字早评 2026/01/08 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、工信部等八部门印发《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，支持突破高端训练芯片、人工智能 服务器、智算云操作系统等关键核心技术； 2、工信部印发《工业互联网和人工智能融合赋能行动方案》，到 2028 年，推动不少于 50000 家企业实 施新型工业网络改造升级； 3、中信证券收盘集合竞价现 14.5 亿元压盘大单； 4、美国 11 月职位空缺降至一年多以来最低水平。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.08%/-0.33%/-0.50%/-1.45%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.07%/-0.55%/-0.92%/-3.12%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.31%/-1.15%/-1.85%/-4.69%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.02%/-0.09%/-0.04%/-0.30%。 【策略观点】 年初机构配置资金有望重新流入市场，加之政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路 为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 110.470 ，环比变化-0.41%； ...

Group 1 - China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves data for December 2025 will be released on January 7 at 16:00 [1] - The Eurozone's preliminary CPI for December 2025 is expected to be 2.0%, slightly down from the previous value of 2.1% [1] - The Eurozone's core harmonized CPI for December 2025 is expected to remain stable at 2.4% [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment change for the US in December 2025 is anticipated to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, a recovery from the previous decrease of 32,000 jobs [2] - If the ADP employment figures exceed expectations, it may positively impact the prices of non-ferrous metals and crude oil [2] Group 3 - The Eurozone's unemployment rate for November 2025 is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4% [2] Group 4 - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3, 2025, are projected to be 195,000, slightly down from 199,000 [3] - A lower than expected jobless claims figure may support non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices [3] Group 5 - China's CPI for December 2025 is expected to grow by 0.90%, up from the previous 0.70%, while the PPI is expected to decline by 2.05%, a slight improvement from the previous decline of 2.20% [4] - A higher CPI and a lower PPI could positively influence industrial product futures while potentially suppressing stock index and government bond futures [4] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for December 2025 is expected to show a seasonally adjusted increase of 53,000 jobs, down from 64,000 [5] - The unemployment rate is projected to decrease to 4.5% from 4.6%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - A lower non-farm payroll figure could reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026 [5] Group 7 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2026 from the University of Michigan is expected to be 53.2, slightly up from 52.9 [5] - A higher consumer confidence index may support non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices while potentially suppressing precious metals prices [5]

2025年，全球流动性环境显著改善，美联储开启实质性降息周期，美元指数全年下跌9.41%，为贵金属价格上行提供了有利的外部环境。同时，中国稳增 长政策持续发力，制造业与基建需求边际回暖，有色金属及新能源相关品种需求明显改善。 在流动性宽松与避险需求共振的背景下，贵金属板块表现尤为突出，Wind 贵金属指数全年上涨 69.7%，明显跑赢全球主要权益市场。整体来看，2025 年 大类资产走势呈现"贵金属领涨、权益资产分化、美元走弱"的典型特征。 | 2025年大类资产走势 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (单位：%) | | | | | | | | 2025 | | 2024 | | | | 2020 | | 69.70 Wind贵金属指数 | 28.97 | | | 10.72 | -9.42 | 18.63 | | 27.65 万得全A | 10.00 -5.19 | | | -18.66 | 9.17 | 25.62 | | 16.39 - 标普500 | | 23.31 24.23 -19.44 26.89 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in profits, the long - term view is to go long on dips as the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short - term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase, but may face short - term corrections in January next year. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum have relatively strong price support, while zinc and lead may be affected by the departure of long positions [11][13]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range [31][34]. - For energy chemicals, the strategies for different products vary. For example, for crude oil, a low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained with short - term waiting and seeing [52]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, for live pigs, a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [75]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly work; from January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year; tobacco advertising and business promotion expenses of tobacco enterprises cannot be deducted; the auction electricity price of the largest power grid operator in the United States may double [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. From January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 4823 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Monday, with a net investment of 4150 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. Trump's remarks on the Fed and the selection of the new Fed chair have an impact on market expectations, and international silver prices hit a new high [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January next year, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, copper prices rose and then fell sharply. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell slightly. LME lead inventory increased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand of lead is weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose and then fell. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The excess pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate fell. The contract decreased its position significantly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or try light - position call options. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price was at a discount, and the futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract rose. The inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price was at a premium, and the inventory increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose. The inventory increased, and the trading volume decreased [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract price rose. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume decreased [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited [36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The spot prices were at a premium [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under strong supervision, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly. The tire start - up rate was slightly worse, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see and partially close the hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures price fell. The inventories of refined oil products had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained, and short - term waiting and seeing are recommended [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol fell, and the main futures contract price was stable [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the main futures contract price was stable [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea market is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner, and it is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, and the styrene spot price rose while the futures price fell [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price fell. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium - term [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [68]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The supply and demand were in a complex state [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price may be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to short after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were large, and the demand was weak [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic palm oil inventory was high, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The domestic and international sugar production and import data changed [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The domestic cotton production increased, and the import was restricted [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].

【本周重点关注】 2025 年 12 月 29 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-12-29 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 点评：12月29日23:00，全美地产经纪商协会(NAR）将公布美国11月季调后成屋签约销售指数，预期美国11 月季调后成屋签约销售指数月率为1%，前值为1.9%。 美国截至12月19日当周EIA原油库存变动 12 月 31 日 03:00，美联储将公布美联储公布 12 月货币政策会议纪要。 12 月 31 日 09:30，国家统计局和中国物流采购联合会将公布中国 12 月官方制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 和综 合 PMI。 12 月 31 日 09:45，Markit 公司将公布中国 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has issued a notice regarding market risk control, highlighting the recent volatility in non-ferrous and precious metals due to complex international circumstances [1] Group 1 - The notice emphasizes the need for relevant entities to take appropriate measures in response to market fluctuations [1] - Investors are advised to enhance risk prevention awareness and engage in rational investment practices [1] - The goal is to collectively maintain a stable market operation amidst the current volatility [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has issued a notice regarding market risk control measures due to the recent volatility in non-ferrous and precious metals amid complex international conditions [1] - The exchange urges relevant entities to take appropriate actions to remind investors to practice risk prevention and rational investment [1] - The goal is to collectively maintain the stable operation of the market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the stock index market, although there is some uncertainty at the end of the year due to partial profit - taking by funds, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds are expected to fluctuate due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - selling [6]. - For precious metals, considering the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to be in a high - level shock, aluminum to fluctuate, and zinc to be cautious about price shocks [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [32][34]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be short - term operated, and crude oil can be observed in the short - term [51][54]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products such as hogs, eggs, and beans have different price trends and trading strategies [76][78][80]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25, 2025. Beijing has adjusted housing purchase restrictions, and multiple departments have urged e - commerce platforms to manage product quality. The Yanjiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Ningde is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [2]. - **Strategy**: End - of - year profit - taking by some funds brings uncertainty, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On December 24, multiple departments in Beijing optimized housing policies. The central bank conducted 26 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and silver rose 1.54%. US employment data exceeded expectations, suppressing precious metal prices in the short - term [8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic demand was weak [12]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level shock, with a reference operating range provided [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased. Trading was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with a reference operating range provided [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about price shocks caused by the departure of precious metal funds [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventory increased, and domestic lead supply tightened marginally [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the surplus pressure is large, the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to observe [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum, and demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, with reference operating ranges provided [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. The Yanjiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [23][24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or lightly buy options, with a reference operating range provided [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose. Ore prices were expected to decline, and inventory was accumulating [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term, with a reference operating range provided [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose. Indonesian nickel ore production targets were adjusted, and spot trading was light [27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Cost was firm, and supply was disrupted [28]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose slightly. Rebar supply and demand increased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and pay attention to policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments decreased, and steel mill inventory was at a low level [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose slightly. Glass demand was weak, and soda ash inventory was accumulating [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to short soda ash [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fluctuated slightly. Spot prices were stable [39]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the impact of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Industrial silicon supply decreased slightly, and polysilicon demand was weak [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to follow market fluctuations, and polysilicon prices are unstable [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears [48]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold a hedging position [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and refined oil inventories decreased [52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term and test OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fluctuated. Port inventory decreased, but future pressure remains [55]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. Demand improved, and supply is expected to decline seasonally [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. Supply and demand had different trends [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. Supply was strong, and demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply was high, and inventory was accumulating [64]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about the risk of price rebound due to increased maintenance [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply was under high - level maintenance, and demand was affected by the off - season [66]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: Para - xylene prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak [68]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. Supply was high, and demand was in the off - season [70]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Supply pressure was large, and demand was seasonally weak [72]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of 2026 [73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices rose. Supply was large, and demand was stable [75]. - **Strategy**: Keep a short - term shock view and pay attention to long - term support [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply was sufficient, and demand was average [77]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to long - term pressure [78]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean inventory was high, and bean meal inventory increased [79]. - **Strategy**: Bean meal is expected to fluctuate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil production and export data were mixed. Domestic oils and fats rebounded [81]. - **Strategy**: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. Imported sugar supply decreased, and international production data was mixed [85]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose. Xinjiang may reduce cotton planting area, and import data was mixed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long [89].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not include the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: At the end of the year, some funds are cashing in on their gains, leading to certain uncertainties in the market. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the general strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - **Bonds**: In the short - term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after the oversold situation [7]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities have different outlooks. For example, copper prices may face resistance despite potential short - term increases; aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and gradually rise; zinc prices may have short - term upward impulses but are expected to be weak in the medium - term; etc. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures** - **Market Information**: Multiple non - ferrous futures prices rose at night; the US Q3 economic growth reached 4.3%, the fastest in two years; SMIC raised some production capacity prices by about 10%; Starlink's global active users exceeded 9 million [2]. - **Strategy**: Although there are uncertainties at the end of the year, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.76%, 0.22%, 0.16%, and 0.06% respectively. The central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound opportunities [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.42% to 1012.58 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.14% to 16961.00 yuan/kilogram. The US Q3 GDP data exceeded expectations, suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [8]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates and expand the balance sheet. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: LME copper closed up 1.21% to $12055/ton, and Shanghai copper closed at 94890 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, and domestic premiums widened [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise, but there is resistance. The operating range for Shanghai copper is 93500 - 96000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 11850 - 12200 dollars/ton [13]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: LME aluminum was flat at $2941/ton, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 22160 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the spot was at a discount [14]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and gradually rise. The operating range for Shanghai aluminum is 22050 - 22300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 2910 - 2980 dollars/ton [15]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.10% to 23100 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell to $3086.5/ton. Inventories increased, and the basis changed [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may have short - term upward impulses but are expected to be weak in the medium - term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose 0.43% to 16990 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1977.5/ton. Inventories and basis changed [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term within a wide range [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Shanghai nickel rose 1.71% to 125150 yuan/ton. Spot premiums and costs changed [20]. - **Strategy**: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for Shanghai nickel is 110000 - 125000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is 13000 - 15500 dollars/ton [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin rose 1.27% to 344750 yuan/ton. Supply and demand had different trends [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for domestic tin is 300000 - 350000 yuan/ton, and for overseas tin is 39000 - 43000 dollars/ton [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The MMLC index rose 3.14%, and the LC2605 contract rose 5.23% [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly. The operating range for the LC2605 contract is 114500 - 124500 yuan/ton [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose 0.01% to 2583 yuan/ton. Inventories and basis changed [26]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for the AO2601 contract is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton [27]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract rose 0.43% to 12905 yuan/ton. Spot prices and inventories changed [28][29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The AD2602 contract fell 0.12% to 21265 yuan/ton. Inventories decreased [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar rose 0.063% to 3128 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil rose 0.122% to 3281 yuan/ton. Inventories and positions changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The impact of export licenses will be gradually digested, and winter - storage willingness is weak [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract fell 0.38% to 778.50 yuan/ton. Spot prices and basis changed [35]. - **Strategy**: Iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass fell 0.29% to 1028 yuan/ton, and soda ash rose 0.51% to 1175 yuan/ton. Inventories and positions changed [37][40]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate narrowly, and for soda ash, it is recommended to short at appropriate times [39][41]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon fell 0.31% to 5822 yuan/ton, and ferrosilicon rose 0.07% to 5648 yuan/ton. Spot prices and basis changed [42]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the leading role of the black - building materials sector and cost and supply factors [43][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon rose 2.15% to 8780 yuan/ton, and polysilicon rose 0.65% to 59225 yuan/ton. Inventories and basis changed [46][48]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon futures are unstable. Attention should be paid to risks [47][49]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated. There are different views on supply and demand [51][52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold hedging positions [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: INE crude oil rose 1.92% to 440.90 yuan/barrel. Inventories changed [55][56]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export - support willingness [57]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices changed, and the main contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2156 yuan/ton [58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. Methanol is expected to consolidate at a low level [59]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices changed, and the main contract rose 23 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton [60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices. Urea is expected to build a bottom through oscillation [61]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed. Supply and demand indicators changed [62]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year [63]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 147 yuan to 4738 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and costs changed [64]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 112 yuan to 3623 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [66]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebounds due to unexpected maintenance [68]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 42 yuan to 5082 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [69]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips based on expectations [70]. - **Para - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7302 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips [72][73]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The main contract rose 56 yuan/ton to 6296 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [74]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [75]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The main contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 6158 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [76]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of next year [77]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices mostly rose. Regional prices and supply - demand changed [79]. - **Strategy**: Near - term contracts are expected to oscillate. Consider short - selling on rallies, and pay attention to long - term support [80]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply and demand and prices changed [81]. - **Strategy**: Near - term contracts are expected to squeeze the premium. Consider short - selling on rallies, and pay attention to long - term pressure [82]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Domestic meal prices and inventories changed [83]. - **Strategy**: Meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Palm oil production and exports changed. Domestic oil prices rebounded [85]. - **Strategy**: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rose. Domestic and international production and import data changed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The overall outlook is bearish [90]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose. Domestic and international production, import, and inventory data changed [91][92]. - **Strategy**: It is unlikely for Zhengzhou cotton to have a unilateral trend [93].