Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and changes in inflation expectations. The market has shifted from early inflation and supply - side disturbance logic to pricing and trading for stagflation and recession [4][8][41]. - The economic recovery in China shows signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, but the sustainability needs to be observed, and domestic demand still requires the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The bond market may be under pressure due to inflation concerns [8]. - Different commodities have different trends and influencing factors. For example, some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors, while energy and chemical products are also influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, and agricultural products are affected by factors such as planting area, production, and international events [12][62][85]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US is reported to be planning a final strike against Iran. The OECD predicts that the US inflation rate will reach 4.2% this year. Chip stocks have seen increased selling. SMIC's revenue in 2025 was $9.327 billion, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 93.5% [2]. - **Strategy View**: The conflict between the US and Iran affects global risk appetite. The hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The yield of Japanese two - year Treasury bonds reached a new high since 1996. The oil production in southern Iraq has decreased. The central bank conducted a net injection of 21.1 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in January - February improved, but the sustainability of the economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile state [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell, while COMEX gold and silver prices rose. The inflation risk has increased due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities for 10 days [9]. - **Strategy View**: The geopolitical conflict is the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum, but in the short term, precious metals will remain in a high - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US military action against Iran has affected market sentiment, and copper prices have adjusted. LME inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories also decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: The Middle East situation is expected to be volatile. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and domestic refined copper consumption has improved. Copper prices may be in a short - term volatile state [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Middle East situation has affected the supply side, and aluminum prices have risen. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased [14]. - **Strategy View**: The Middle East situation has eased, but the market sentiment is still volatile. The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. Aluminum prices may be in a short - term volatile state [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc rose slightly. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices [16][17]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased, and the profit of the zinc industry has declined. The zinc price is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed's monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead fell slightly. The inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the refined - scrap price difference was at par [19]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead concentrate has decreased, and the production of primary and secondary smelting enterprises has improved. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, with both support and downward pressure. The volatility may increase [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel fell slightly. The spot premium of nickel decreased, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable [20]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, nickel prices may follow the downward trend due to inflation expectations and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is expected to improve, and the bottom support is strong. It is recommended to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations within a range [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin fell. The production of tin smelters has recovered, but the demand has only marginally improved. The inventory has decreased [23]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery state. Affected by geopolitical factors and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, tin prices are expected to be weak [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate showed a slight increase. The production increased, and the inventory also increased [25]. - **Strategy View**: The production of lithium carbonate continues to grow, and the inventory increase is at a new high since August last year. The supply may be affected by the Zimbabwean mineral export ban. The demand for lithium batteries is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the changes in the futures position, industrial events, and spot premium [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina fell. The spot price in Shandong increased, and the overseas price also increased. The futures inventory increased [27][28]. - **Strategy View**: The Guinean government may tighten bauxite exports, and the short - term supply of alumina has tightened. However, the long - term oversupply situation remains. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to domestic supply policies, Guinean ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel fell slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the raw material price also remained stable. The inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: Driven by raw material cost and policy, the price of stainless steel is supported. However, the supply is still loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fell. The trading volume increased, and the inventory decreased [31]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is still supported [33]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the positions decreased. The spot prices in some regions decreased [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, and the inventory has decreased, but there is no trend - driving force. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on costs [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore rose. The spot price and basis increased, and the position decreased [36]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas ore shipment is increasing, and the demand for iron ore is also rising. The port inventory is decreasing, and the bottom support of iron ore prices is strengthened. The price is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [37][38]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell. The spot prices of coking coal and coke had different premiums and discounts to the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy View**: The market has shifted to stagflation and recession trading, and the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure. In the short term, the supply - demand structure is relatively loose, and it is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait and see. In the long term, the price of coking coal is still optimistic [41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass fell, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash fell, and the inventory also decreased [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: The price of glass is restricted by high inventory and weak demand and is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. The supply - demand situation of soda ash is loose, and the price is expected to be in a low - level wide - range volatile state [43][45]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon had premiums to the futures prices [46]. - **Strategy View**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession expectations. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is relatively good. Attention should be paid to the impact of the black market and the cost and supply factors of the two products [47][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon fell slightly. The production increased, and the demand improved slightly. The price of polysilicon fell, and the inventory increased [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile state, supported by cost. The fundamental situation of polysilicon is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile state [51][54]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of butadiene is strong, and the production of butadiene rubber has been cut. The opinions of the long and short sides of natural rubber are divided. The operating rate of tire enterprises has changed, and the inventory has different trends [57][58][59]. - **Strategy View**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the disk, set stop - losses, and take quick profits. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the out - of - the - money call options of butadiene rubber and start to configure put options [61]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of INE crude oil rose, while the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils fell [62]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to start a strategic short - position allocation for crude oil. It is also recommended to widen the price difference between different oil types and short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [63]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol increased, and the MTO profit decreased [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [65]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea changed slightly, and the basis was - 15 yuan/ton [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - allocate urea. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand support [67]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis weakened. The supply and demand situation has changed [68][69]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the large geopolitical impact on the disk [70]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC fell. The cost remained stable, the production decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [71]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price of PVC is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [73]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [75]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rose. The production increased, the demand decreased, and the inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [77]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [79]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [81]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price of PP is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to production mismatch [83]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs generally fell, and the trading was not active [85]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [86]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs was mostly stable, and the supply was normal [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price of eggs is expected to be strong, but the upside space is limited. The long - term price may fall, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [88]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted planting areas of US corn and soybeans have increased. The US soybean exports have decreased. The soybean inventory and crushing rate have changed [89]. - **Strategy View**: The possible cease - fire between the US and Iran and the relaxation of Brazilian soybean import inspection standards are negative for meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [90]. Oils - **Market Information**: Indonesia has restricted the export of coal, palm oil, and its derivatives. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have changed. The inventory of domestic oils has decreased [91]. - **Strategy View**: The possible cease - fire between the US and Iran is negative for oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [92]. Sugar - **Market Information**: China's sugar imports have increased, and the production and sales in some countries have changed [93]. - **Strategy View**: The possible cease - fire between the US and Iran is negative for sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: China's cotton and cotton yarn imports have increased. The US cotton exports have decreased. The spinning mill operating rate has increased, and the inventory has increased [95][96]. - **Strategy View**: The new import quota is negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices in the short term and positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, the rising operating rate is positive for Zhengzhou cotton prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East conflict, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It has led to increased inflation concerns, changes in central bank policies, and fluctuations in various asset prices. For example, it has affected the prices of precious metals, base metals, energy commodities, and agricultural products. [4][8][10] - The global economic outlook is uncertain, with concerns about stagflation and recession. Central banks' monetary policies, especially the Fed's stance on interest rates, are crucial factors influencing market trends. [4][39][45] - Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some industries are facing supply - side constraints, while others are affected by demand - side factors. For instance, in the metal industry, copper and aluminum are affected by supply shortages and geopolitical factors, while in the agricultural industry, factors such as production forecasts and trade policies play important roles. [13][15][83] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Iran proposed 4 measures in response to Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plants, and the Trump administration started preliminary consultations on "peace talks" with Iran. The central bank governor said that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and a large light rare - earth mine was discovered in Sichuan. [2] - **Strategy**: The conflict between the US and Iran has affected global risk appetite. The hawkish stances of Powell and European central bank officials have led to a decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and a rapid rise in US bond yields. In China, exports are resilient, and PPI has been narrowing. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks. [4] - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: The basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided, showing different trends. [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different degrees of decline. The Ministry of Commerce issued policies to promote travel service exports, and the LPR remained stable for the tenth consecutive month. The central bank conducted 205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. [5] - **Strategy**: The economic data from January to February improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has raised concerns about imported inflation, and inflationary pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. [8] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices in both domestic and international markets declined. The Fed and other major central banks maintained their current interest rates, and the US Treasury Secretary made statements about war funds. Iran proposed counter - measures against Trump's threats. [9] - **Strategy**: The escalation of the US - Iran war has raised inflation concerns, causing central banks to be cautious about interest - rate cuts. The strengthening of real interest rates and the US dollar, along with a decline in near - term interest - rate cut expectations, have put pressure on precious metals. Gold is in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish. [10] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the Middle - East situation, the copper price continued to decline. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased. The spot market showed different supply - demand situations in different regions. [12] - **Strategy**: The Middle - East situation has not cooled down, and inflation and economic weakness continue to suppress market sentiment. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and future inventory digestion may support the copper price. The short - term copper price may continue to find the bottom. [13] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price continued to be weak. The inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum bars increased. The LME inventory decreased, and the cash/3M maintained a premium. [14] - **Strategy**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation has affected market risk sentiment, and the supply concern has been alleviated. Overseas supply is expected to be tight, and domestic inventory may decrease. If the war situation does not cool down, the aluminum price is expected to be weakly volatile. [15] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, while the LME zinc price fell. The domestic and international inventories and basis are provided. The downstream actively replenished inventory after the zinc price decline. [16][17] - **Strategy**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased, and the import TC has declined. The zinc industry is in a weak situation, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts. [18] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell, and the LME lead price also declined. The domestic and international inventories, basis, and other data are provided. The social inventory of lead decreased after the price decline. [19] - **Strategy**: The visible inventory of lead concentrate has decreased, and the import TC has increased. The lead price is at the lower end of the long - term shock range. The downstream may conduct strategic purchases, but the high沪伦 ratio and inflation concerns may also put pressure on the lead price. The price volatility is increasing. [19] Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price fell. The spot price and cost of nickel also changed. The price of nickel iron decreased slightly. [20] - **Strategy**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the hawkish stance of the Fed. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is improving, and the price has strong support. It is recommended to use high - sell and low - buy strategies. [21] Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The inventory of SHFE and LME decreased. The supply side is gradually recovering, but the demand side has not fully recovered. The downstream actively replenished inventory after the price decline. [22] - **Strategy**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. The tin price is expected to be weakly volatile under the influence of geopolitical factors. [23] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the inventory reduction margin has shrunk. [24] - **Strategy**: The geopolitical situation has affected the metal market. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the price has certain support. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums. [25] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price in Shandong increased, and the overseas price remained stable. The futures inventory increased, and the price of bauxite in Guinea increased. [26] - **Strategy**: Guinea may tighten bauxite exports, and the supply of alumina is expected to be tight in the short term but in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see strategy. [27] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose. The spot price in different markets increased, and the inventory decreased. The raw material prices were relatively stable. [28] - **Strategy**: The Middle - East situation has increased inflation concerns, and the Fed's hawkish stance has led to a decline in commodity prices. The stainless steel market has a loose supply, slow inventory reduction, and weak demand. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. [28] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract fell. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased. The price of ADC12 in the domestic market decreased. [30] - **Strategy**: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price has certain support. [31] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions also changed. [33] - **Strategy**: The real - estate data from January to February was weak, and the demand for steel from the real - estate sector is limited. The demand for hot - rolled coil has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, and it is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and raw material price fluctuations. [33] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price and basis are provided. The overseas ore shipment increased, and the domestic iron - water production increased. The port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory increased. [34][35] - **Strategy**: The overseas supply of iron ore is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level shock due to resource structure issues and geopolitical conflicts. [35] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke increased. The spot prices and basis are provided. The price of coking coal suddenly rose on Friday night, which was considered a result of the "energy substitution" sentiment. [36] - **Strategy**: The market has shifted from inflation and supply - side concerns to stagflation and recession trading. The black - metal sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and it is recommended to take short - term long - position operations or wait - and - see. In the long term, the coking coal price is expected to be positive. [39] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the soda ash main contract price increased slightly. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. The open interest of glass and soda ash also changed. [40][41] - **Strategy**: The glass market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to be in a wide - range shock. The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand situation and is expected to be in a low - level wide - range shock. [40][42] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract price rose significantly, and the ferrosilicon main contract price also rose. The spot prices and basis are provided. The price of manganese silicon was affected by the potential impact of a typhoon on manganese ore. [43] - **Strategy**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is relatively good. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall market sentiment, manganese ore supply, and "dual - carbon" policies. [45][46] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price rose, and the polysilicon main contract price fell. The spot prices and basis are provided. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing slightly, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon market has high inventory and weak demand. [47][48] - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be in a shock due to cost support. The polysilicon price is expected to find the bottom in a shock due to weak fundamentals. [48][49] Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The Middle - East situation has affected the rubber market. The prices of natural rubber and butadiene rubber have different trends. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber are provided. [52][53] - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. It is also recommended to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [55] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price rose, and the prices of related refined - oil products also changed. [56] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to start a short - position strategic allocation for crude oil. It is also recommended to widen the price difference between different oil types in the Red Sea area, short the high - sulfur fuel - oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread. [58] Methanol - **Market Information**: The main methanol futures contract price changed, and the MTO profit also changed. [59] - **Strategy**: It is considered that methanol has fully included the current geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profit at high prices. [60] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea changed. The overall basis is provided. [61] - **Strategy**: The expectation of high - level production in the first quarter is strong. The domestic supply - demand situation is balanced, and the marginal impact is mainly related to export quotas. It is recommended to short - sell urea. [62] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the basis and other indicators are provided. The upstream and downstream operating rates and inventory are also provided. [63] - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the cost of pure benzene is relatively wide. The supply and demand of styrene are in a certain state. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position due to geopolitical impacts. [64] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price rose. The spot price, basis, and cost data are provided. The operating rate and inventory of PVC are also provided. [65] - **Strategy**: The comprehensive profit of PVC enterprises has rebounded, but there are expectations of production reduction and seasonal maintenance. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export may be affected. The short - term price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks. [66] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price rose. The supply and demand data, inventory, and cost data are provided. [67] - **Strategy**: The overseas and domestic device maintenance is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The short - term price has risen too much, and attention should be paid to risks. [68][69] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The operating rate, inventory, and processing fee data are provided. [70] - **Strategy**: The PTA is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term over - increase. [71] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract price fell. The operating rate, inventory, and cost data are provided. [72] - **Strategy**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and the downstream PTA load is increasing. The PX is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term over - increase. [73] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price fell. The spot price, basis, upstream operating rate, and inventory data are provided. [74] - **Strategy**: The PE spot price has fallen, and the valuation has downward space. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases. [75] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price fell. The spot price, basis, upstream operating rate, and inventory data are provided. [76] - **Strategy**: The cost - side supply is expected to increase moderately in the second quarter. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to the production - mismatch issue. [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall over the weekend. The supply is concentrated, and the demand recovery is slow. [79] - **Strategy**: The supply is in a concentrated release period, and the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the medium - term price increase basis is poor. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The domestic egg price had different trends over the weekend. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. [81] - **Strategy**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the current supply level is still high. The short - term spot price may be strong, but the near - month contract has limited upside space. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for the far - month contract. [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted planting areas of corn and soybeans in the US have increased. The US soybean export data and domestic soybean arrival and inventory data are provided. The global soybean production and inventory - consumption ratio are also provided. [83] - **Strategy**: The March USDA report is neutral. The protein - meal price is affected by the volatile crude - oil price due to the geopolitical crisis. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia may restrict the export of palm oil. The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic inventory of three major oils is also

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No information provided. 3. Summary by Related Categories Metals and Non - metals - Copper: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 95790, with a main contract basis rate of - 0.29%, a monthly basis of - 82, and a change of - 0.18% compared to yesterday [3]. - Aluminum: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 24455, with a main contract basis rate of 1.06% and a monthly basis of - 60 [3]. - Zinc: The spot price of SMM 0 zinc is 22960, with a main contract basis rate of 0.52% and a monthly basis of - 100 [3]. - Lead: The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16565, with a main contract basis rate of 0.30% and a monthly basis of - 80 [3]. - Tin: The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 354090, with a main contract basis rate of 0.51% and a monthly basis of 1800 [3]. - Nickel: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 132050, with a main contract basis rate of 1.59% and a monthly basis of 2080 [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The spot price of SMM Fuluo Tongyang 553 silicon is 9100, with a main contract basis rate of 9.51% and a monthly basis of 832 [3]. - Carbonate Lithium: The spot price of high - quality battery - grade carbonate lithium is 145750, with a main contract basis rate of 0.27% and a monthly basis of 2550 [3]. - Gold: The price of AuT + D is 1065.26, with a basis rate of 0.20% and a change of 0.39 compared to yesterday [3]. - Silver: The price of Ag(T + D) is 17984, with a basis rate of 0.03% and a change of - 33 compared to yesterday [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3190, with a main contract basis rate of - 1.11% and a monthly basis of 40 [3]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3320, with a main contract basis rate of - 1.27% and a monthly basis of - 47 [3]. - Iron Ore: The spot price of PB powder 61% in Qingdao is 837.9, with a main contract basis rate of 3.76% and a change of - 0.63% compared to yesterday [3]. - Coke: The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1891.0, with a main contract basis rate of 0.03% and a monthly basis of - 286.0 [3]. - Coking Coal: The spot price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1272.0, with a main contract basis rate of 6.30% and a monthly basis of - 0.28% [3]. - Steam Coal: The spot price of Shanxi Q500 at Qinhuangdao Port is 801.4, with a main contract basis rate of 0.00% and a monthly basis of - 68.4 [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The spot price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5824, with a main contract basis rate of - 0.46% and a monthly basis of - 370 [3]. - Manganese Silicon: The spot price of FeMn68Si18 in Hebei is 6238, with a main contract basis rate of - 0.61% and a monthly basis of - 38 [3]. - Stainless Steel: The spot price of 304/2B 2.0*1219 from Angang Lianzhong in Wuxi is 13970, with a main contract basis rate of 2.49% and a monthly basis of 345 [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: The spot price of first - class domestic soybean in Harbin is 4813, with a main contract basis rate of - 413 [3]. - Soybean Meal: The spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3320, with a main contract basis rate of 9.14% and a monthly basis of 271 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2660, with a main contract basis rate of 8.88% and a monthly basis of 217 [3]. - Edible Oil: The spot price of first - class soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 8890, with a main contract basis rate of 3.18% and a monthly basis of 370 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10480, with a main contract basis rate of 6.35% and a monthly basis of 772 [3]. - Peanut: The spot price of Baisha peanuts (45% oil, 9% water) in Changtu is 9100, with a main contract basis rate of 11.14% and a monthly basis of 756 [3]. - Palm Oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9796, with a main contract basis rate of 0.76% and a monthly basis of 74 [3]. - Corn: The spot price of first - class national standard corn at Guyuquan Port is 2400, with a main contract basis rate of - 0.08% and a monthly basis of 16 [3]. - Corn Starch: The spot price of corn starch at the factory in Changchun is 2850, with a main contract basis rate of 4.82% and a monthly basis of 131 [3]. - Apple: The spot price (average of Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan Red Fuji) is 8827, with a main contract basis rate of - 3.83 and a monthly basis of - 272 [3]. - Egg: The spot price of eggs in Hebei Cangzhou is 3651, with a main contract basis rate of - 7.93 and a monthly basis of - 674 [3]. - Live Pig: The spot price of one - yuan live pig in Henan is 13405, with a main contract basis rate of - 3.739 and a monthly basis of - 3455 [3]. - Cotton: The spot price of cotton price index 328 in Xinjiang is 15605, with a main contract basis rate of 10.38% and a monthly basis of 1117 [3]. - Sugar: The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou is 5570, with a main contract basis rate of 0.98% and a monthly basis of 30 [3]. Chemical Industry - Methanol: The spot price of methanol in East China is 3182, with a main contract basis rate of 1.12% and a monthly basis of - 0.02% [3]. - Ethanol: The spot price of ethanol in East China is 5220, with a main contract basis rate of - 1.15% and a monthly basis of - 60 [3]. - PTA: The spot price of PTA in East China is 6834, with a main contract basis rate of - 1.08% and a monthly basis of - 74 [3]. - Polypropylene: The spot price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S is 9158, with a main contract basis rate of 3.73% and a monthly basis of 342 [3]. - Styrene: The spot price of styrene in East China is 10400, with a main contract basis rate of 1.78% and a monthly basis of 945 [3]. - Short - fiber: The spot price of Shanghai Fangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm is 8450, with a main contract basis rate of - 1.56% and a monthly basis of 52 [3]. - Plastic: The spot price of Zhejiang Petrochemical 7042 in Yuyao is 8916, with a main contract basis rate of - 3.87 and a monthly basis of 360 [3]. - PVC: The spot price of East China SG - 5 Xinjiang Zhongtai is 5894, with a main contract basis rate of - 2.05 and a monthly basis of - 154 [3]. - Rubber: The spot price of Thai - produced rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area is 16770, with a main contract basis rate of 0.36% and a monthly basis of - 770 [3]. - 20 - number Rubber: The spot price of Thai 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area is 13535, with a main contract basis rate of 4.63% and a monthly basis of - 12 [3]. - Soda Ash: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1287, with a main contract basis rate of - 0.82% and a monthly basis of - 80 [3]. - Urea: The spot price of small - particle urea in Henan is 1909, with a main contract basis rate of 0.05% and a monthly basis of - 49 [3]. - Pulp: The spot price of bleached softwood kraft pulp (Silver Star, Chile) is 5456, with a main contract basis rate of - 2.41 and a monthly basis of - 120 [3]. Energy - Crude Oil: The spot price of Chinese Shengli oil in the Pacific Rim is 814.9, with a main contract basis rate of - 0.67% and a monthly basis of - 51.6 [3]. - Fuel Oil: The spot price of bonded marine fuel oil 380CST in Zhoushan is 5865, with a main contract basis rate of 17.04% and a monthly basis of 854 [3]. - Asphalt: The spot price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong is 4625, with a main contract basis rate of - 8.97% and a monthly basis of - 415 [3]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The spot price of 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel oil in Singapore is 6834, with a main contract basis rate of 10.76% and a monthly basis of 4613 [3]. - LPG: The spot price of LPG in Guangzhou is 6283, with a main contract basis rate of - 2.10% and a monthly basis of - 25 [3]. Stock Index - CSI 300: The spot price is 4586.6, with a main contract basis rate of - 0.22% and a change of - 3.3 compared to yesterday [3]. - SSE 50: The spot price is 2916.2, with a main contract basis rate of - 0.14% and a change of 22.4 compared to yesterday [3]. - CSI 500: The spot price is 7886.4, with a main contract basis rate of - 0.25% and a change of 7822.2 compared to yesterday [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the Iran - US conflict, global risk preferences are disturbed, with rising oil prices, weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, and a rapid rise in US Treasury yields. The domestic two - sessions continue moderately loose monetary and more active fiscal policies. Attention should be paid to the war situation and risk control [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics boosts gold and silver prices in the short - term, but inflation expectations and weak US economic data suppress precious metal prices. A cautious bearish view is taken on precious metals [9]. - Due to the Middle East war, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, zinc prices may break downward, lead prices are expected to stop falling and recover, nickel prices will fluctuate, tin prices will fluctuate widely, lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate in a range, alumina prices will fluctuate widely, stainless steel prices will rise in a shock, and casting aluminum alloy prices will remain strong [12][14][16][17][18][20][21][24][25][27]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, iron ore prices will fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound in the short - term and are optimistic in the long - term, glass prices will fluctuate in a range, soda ash prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices may have short - term rebound opportunities, and industrial silicon and polysilicon prices will fluctuate [30][32][35][38][39][40][43][46][48]. - Rubber trading should be flexible, crude oil has a bearish strategic configuration, methanol should take profit at high prices, urea should be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene should be observed on the sidelines, PVC may rebound in the short - term, ethylene glycol may have inventory reduction expectations, PTA may have valuation increase space, PX has a good medium - term pattern, polyethylene can be short - sold on rallies, and polypropylene's long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [54][56][58][60][62][64][66][68][72][74][77]. - Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term, egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments, soybean and rapeseed meal prices should be observed on the sidelines in the short - term, oil prices are bullish in the medium - term, sugar prices may rebound, and cotton prices may rise if downstream starts up well [80][82][85][87][91][93]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Iran's parliamentary speaker says no cease - fire is sought, Trump says conditional negotiation with Iran is possible; the National Internet Emergency Center issues a risk warning for OpenClaw; storage chips and precious metals rise, and some car companies try to raise prices; Industrial Foshan's 2025 revenue is 902.887 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 48.22%, and net profit is 35.286 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 51.99% [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: IF: 6.96%/5.44%/8.68%/6.49%; IC: 6.01%/5.89%/11.20%/8.33%; IM: 13.22%/9.71%/16.30%/11.40%; IH: 0.44%/0.43%/1.63%/3.34% [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have different changes; China's January - February exports and imports increase, and the trade surplus is 213.62 billion US dollars; Middle East oil production cuts up to 6.7 million barrels per day; the central bank conducts 3.85 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 52 million yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and the bond market may be pressured by inflation. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rise; US API crude oil inventory is lower than expected, and US non - farm payrolls decrease; Trump and Iran's parliamentary speaker have different stances on negotiation and cease - fire, and Iran may lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. Geopolitics and inflation expectations affect prices. A cautious bearish view is taken, with Shanghai gold's reference range of 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver's of 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Crude oil and precious metals rise, driving up copper prices. LME and domestic warehouse inventories change, and the spot basis changes [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war provides emotional support. The copper supply is tight, and prices are expected to rise in the short - term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 100800 - 102800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 12900 - 13300 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Crude oil fluctuates, LME aluminum's cancelled warrants increase, and aluminum prices rise. Warehouse inventories and spot basis change [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war affects supply, and domestic downstream production resumes. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 24600 - 25800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 3350 - 3500 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is weak, and the Iran conflict has little impact on supply. Zinc prices may break downward and will fluctuate widely [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead production and demand are weak, but prices are at the lower end of the shock range. They are expected to stop falling and recover [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise slightly. Spot premiums and raw material prices change [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium - term, nickel prices are supported by policies. In the short - term, they will fluctuate. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 160000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is 16000 - 20000 US dollars/ton [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. Supply is tight, and demand is in the recovery stage [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is bullish on tin, but supply and demand are marginally loose. Tin prices will fluctuate widely. The reference range for domestic tin is 370000 - 450000 yuan/ton, and for overseas tin is 47000 - 54000 US dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rise. Spot and futures prices change [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran situation eases, and the lithium market may range - fluctuate. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150000 - 175000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Over - inventory and supply factors suppress prices. They will fluctuate widely. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise. Spot prices and warehouse inventories change [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Market purchasing warms up, and prices are expected to rise in a shock. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rise slightly. Warehouse inventories and contract spreads change [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cost and demand factors support prices, which are expected to remain strong [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices will fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The key lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fall slightly. Warehouse inventories and basis change [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas supply is volatile, and demand is weak. Prices will fluctuate in the short - term [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices fall. Spot prices and basis change [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, prices may fluctuate or slightly rebound. In the long - term, they are optimistic [35][38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: Glass prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Demand improves slightly, and prices will fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 1040 - 1130 yuan/ton [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Soda ash prices fall. Warehouse inventories and positions change [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and prices will fluctuate with the coal - chemical industry. The reference range for the main contract is 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton [40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices fall, and ferrosilicon prices rise slightly. Spot prices and basis change [41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East war affects market sentiment. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may have short - term rebound opportunities [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand may increase in March, and prices will fluctuate or rebound [46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Polysilicon prices fall. Warehouse inventories and basis change [47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand increase, but inventory reduction is limited. Prices will fluctuate [48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil and butadiene prices fall, affecting rubber prices. Tire production and inventory change [50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly and set stop - losses. Consider buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fall [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish strategic configuration, do long - short operations on different oil spreads [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices change. Spot and futures prices change [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit at high prices [58]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices change. Spot and futures prices change [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - allocate urea [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fall, and styrene prices rise. Supply, demand, and basis change [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe on the sidelines [62]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fall. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices may rebound in the short - term, but beware of risks [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply may decrease, and inventory may reduce. Be cautious of over - rising [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA may not enter a de - stocking cycle. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [70][71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX will enter a de - stocking cycle in March. Valuation may rise, but beware of over - rising [72]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: PE prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - sell on rallies for the LL2605 - LL2609 contract [74]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: PP prices fall. Supply, demand, and inventory change [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [77]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices vary. Market supply and demand change [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pig prices may remain weakly stable in the short - term. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and observe the far - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices vary. Market supply and demand change [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices may be stable with partial narrow - range adjustments. Short - sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to cost support for the far - term [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean import and production data change [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe on the sidelines in the short - term [85]. Oils - **Market Information**: Indonesia may restart the B50 policy, and palm oil production, export, and inventory data change [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bullish in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data in different countries change [88][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound. Participate in long positions on dips [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data change [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to downstream start - up. Buy on dips [93].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from March 9 to March 14, 2026, focusing on various economic data releases and their potential impact on the futures market. Key factors such as domestic macro - policies, international geopolitical situations, and speeches of relevant figures are also emphasized [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 March 9 - China's February CPI is predicted to grow 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.2%), and PPI is predicted to decline 1.2% year - on - year (previous value - 1.4%). If the CPI rises and PPI decline narrows, it will help commodity and stock index futures prices rise and suppress treasury bond futures [3]. - The expected value of the Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index is 3, with a previous value of 4.2 [4]. - The New York Fed will release the US February 1 - year inflation expectation, with a previous value of 3.1% [5]. 3.2 March 10 - Japan's Q4 2025 GDP revised value: the expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP quarterly rate is 0.3% (initial value 0.1%, Q3 revised value - 0.6%); the expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 1.2% (initial value 0.2%, Q3 revised value - 2.3%) [6]. - China's January - February import and export data: exports are expected to grow 7% year - on - year (December 2025: 6.6%), and imports are expected to grow 6% year - on - year (December 2025: 5.7%). Higher growth rates will slightly boost commodity and stock index futures and suppress treasury bond futures [8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release the February 2026 China Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Situation Analysis Report, which may affect related agricultural product futures prices [9]. - China's February social financing scale increment is expected to be 1900 billion yuan (previous value 7220.8 billion yuan), new RMB loans are expected to be 850 billion yuan (previous value 4710 billion yuan), and the M2 balance is expected to grow 8.9% year - on - year (previous value 9.0%) [10]. - The US February existing home sales: the expected annualized total number is 3.9 million units (previous value 3.91 million units), and the expected annualized monthly rate is - 1.5% (previous value - 8.4%) [11]. 3.3 March 11 - The USDA will release the monthly supply - demand report, which may affect related agricultural product futures prices [12]. - The EIA will release the monthly short - term energy outlook report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13]. - OPEC will release the monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [14]. - The US February CPI: the expected unadjusted CPI year - on - year growth is 2.4% (previous value 2.4%), the expected seasonally - adjusted CPI monthly rate is 0.2% (previous value 0.2%), the expected unadjusted core CPI year - on - year growth is 2.4% (previous value 2.5%), and the expected unadjusted core CPI monthly rate is 0.2% (previous value 0.3%) [15]. - The EIA will release the change in US crude oil inventories for the week of March 6. A continued increase will suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16]. 3.4 March 12 - The IEA will release the monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [19]. - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 are expected to be 215,000 (previous value 213,000). A slight increase will slightly boost gold and silver futures prices and suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices [20]. 3.5 March 13 - The US January PCE price index: the expected annual rate is 2.8% (previous value 2.9%), the expected monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value 0.4%), the expected core PCE annual rate is 3.0% (previous value 3.0%), and the expected core PCE monthly rate is 0.4% (previous value 0.4%) [21]. - The US Q4 2025 GDP revised value: the expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 1.4% (initial value 1.4%, Q3 2025 GDP annualized quarterly rate final value 4.4%) [22]. - The US January durable goods orders initial value: the expected monthly rate is 0.8% (previous value - 1.4%). A higher rate will boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices and suppress gold and silver futures prices [23]. - The US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value is expected to be 55 (previous value 56.6). A lower value will suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices and boost gold and silver futures prices [24]. 3.6 March 14 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important means of production in the circulation field in early March, covering 9 categories and 50 products [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, oil prices are rising, the Fed's rate - cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is advisable to pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. - The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the domestic bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. - Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards precious metals, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are supported by factors such as resource attributes and supply - demand relationships, but also face risks from geopolitical situations and market sentiment [13][15][18]. - The black - building materials sector is currently in a weak state, and the short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [32]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and different products have different investment strategies according to their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][61]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, and corresponding investment strategies are put forward [81][83][87]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Macro - finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: Some flights from China to the Middle East have resumed, Israel will reopen its airspace on the 8th, US tech giants have signed a self - power supply commitment, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of repurchase operations, and US economic data shows mixed results [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The yields of treasury bond futures have minor changes, the government has set economic growth targets, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver have declined, which may be related to the rise of US bond yields and the large - scale selling plan of the Polish central bank. CME has adjusted the margin of gold and silver futures, and global gold ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices have declined, LME inventory has increased, and domestic social inventory has also changed [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the risk preference is affected by the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute supports copper prices. The short - term price has support, and the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum has fallen after rising, the inventory has changed, and the trading situation in the spot market is different [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a high level, the price is still supported by factors such as the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the supply risk [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc has a slight increase, and the inventory and basis have changed [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, and the price may fluctuate widely during the conflict [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead has declined, and the inventory and basis have changed [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the lead ingot inventory has increased, the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has declined, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron has remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, the price of nickel is expected to rise slowly, while in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate to digest inventory pressure [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has declined, the supply is tight, and the demand has not been effectively reflected [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin, but it should not blindly chase the high. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased, the production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - ore positive factors have been fully digested, and the price may fall back. Be cautious about going long [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has increased, the basis and inventory have changed [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start have reduced the inventory accumulation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has declined, the inventory has decreased, and the raw material price has remained stable [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is increasing, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. The price is expected to rise in a volatile manner [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has fluctuated slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve after the festival. The short - term price support is strong [29]. 3.3 Black - building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have minor changes, and the inventory and position have also changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro - policy supports the demand for steel, but the current inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [33][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply is expected to recover, and the demand is affected by short - term production restrictions. The price is expected to fluctuate [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have increased slightly, and the spot prices are at a premium [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a phased decline. In the long term, there is a possibility of an upward trend [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has increased, and the inventory has increased. The price of soda ash has increased, and the inventory has also increased [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [41][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The price of manganese silicon has declined slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon has increased slightly. The technical forms of both have changed [44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate, and the black - building materials sector is in a weak state. Pay attention to the cost - push and supply - contraction factors [45][46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the supply and demand are expected to increase. The price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the inventory is high [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be under pressure [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has a slight decline, and the price of butadiene rubber has increased. The开工 rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and the inventory has increased [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and consider hedging strategies [54]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has increased significantly, and the inventories of related refined products have changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy, do long on the spread of different oil types, and short on the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil and the INE - Brent spread [56]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of methanol have changed [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current price has included the geopolitical premium, and it is advisable to take profits at high prices [58]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of urea have changed [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, and it is advisable to short - sell [61]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price may rebound due to the cost sentiment of crude oil [65][66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a pressure of inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction due to the tense situation in Iran. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions at low prices [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe the subsequent maintenance situation, and pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following PX and crude oil [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX is in a state of inventory accumulation in the short term and is expected to turn to inventory reduction in March. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following crude oil [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is supported by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical influence and the seasonal demand [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has decreased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and it is advisable to long - position the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [78]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs have different trends in different regions, and the supply is greater than the demand in most areas [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts and a relatively bullish but cautious view on the far - term contracts [81]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have minor changes, the supply is stable, and the inventory pressure has decreased [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current price is supported, there is a potential pressure on the medium - term price [83]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted production of Brazilian soybeans has been reduced, and the export and inventory data of soybeans have changed [84][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of CBOT soybeans has strengthened, but the domestic soybean inventory is high. Wait for the price to pull back before buying [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia have changed, and the inventory of domestic oils and fats has decreased [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of oils and fats is driven by the rise of crude oil prices. It is advisable to buy at low prices [89]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand have changed, and the price of raw sugar is at a low level [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Do not be overly bearish on raw sugar. It is advisable to buy a small amount of long - positions at low prices in the domestic market [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The predicted production of global cotton has decreased, and the export and inventory data of cotton have changed [93]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased in position. Pay attention to the downstream start - up in March, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S.-Iran conflict has significant impacts on various sectors, with prices in energy, precious metals, chemicals, and container shipping likely to be affected [8][9]. - The development of the conflict has three scenarios, each with different impacts on the market [8][27]. - Different sectors will respond differently to the conflict, with some being more directly affected and others being more indirectly affected [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Event Development Progress - On February 28 local time, the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, and Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was reported killed in an attack on the same morning [21][23][59]. - As of March 1, most vessels around the Strait of Hormuz remained congested and awaiting passage [22][59]. - Three scenarios for subsequent event development are envisioned: symbolic Iranian retaliation and rapid regime transition; stable Iranian regime and intensified retaliation; prolonged but contained conflict [27][62]. Crude Oil - Crude prices have been supported by U.S.-Iran tensions since January, and after the February 28 military escalation, the market will test whether geopolitical risks translate into actual supply disruptions [9][31][63]. - If conflicts remain limited to military targets and end quickly, Brent crude is expected to trade between $70–$78/bbl before retreating. If production or transport is impacted, short-term price elasticity will increase [9][31][63]. - China's domestic crude futures may see additional support from rising tanker costs and increased demand for alternative crudes, widening the spread between domestic and international benchmarks [9][31][63]. Chemicals - Chemicals like methanol, MEG, fuel oil, and LPG may rise short-term due to geopolitical, cost, and transport concerns, but major facilities in the region remain largely undamaged [10][50]. - Continued attention is needed on conflict duration and strait accessibility [10][50]. Natural Gas - The impact of the Iran situation on the global natural gas market depends primarily on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz [11][38][69]. - A phased slowdown in trade flows following a conflict escalation would provide bullish support to gas prices in Europe and Asia. If a sustained and significant drop in Middle Eastern LNG exports emerges later, it would further stimulate price increases in Eurasian gas markets [11][38][69]. Precious Metals - Precious metals may benefit from rising safe-haven demand in the short term, but the sustainability of rallies depends on the severity and longevity of geopolitical tensions [12][39][70]. - Gold and silver prices could challenge recent highs in March [13][40][70]. Container Shipping - Freight rates on Middle Eastern container routes have already increased, and war surcharges are a key focus. Other routes may follow [14][41][71]. - The Middle East accounts for ~5% of global container volume, with ~3% transiting the Strait of Hormuz [14][41][71]. - The April contract highs could reach 1,450–1,500 points [14][41][72]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The U.S.-Iran military conflict is likely to intensify concerns over potential supply shocks in the near term, providing upward impetus to base metal prices [15][42][73]. - In the medium term, base metals are expected to continue to exhibit a volatile but bullish trend [15][42][73]. Ferrous Metals - The impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on ferrous metals is primarily sentiment-driven, with minimal direct supply or cost transmission [16][44][74]. - Higher oil prices may raise seaborne iron ore transport costs, but with a lag [16][44][74]. Agriculture - The U.S.-Iran conflict affects the agriculture sector mainly through oil price volatility, with synthetic rubber being the most sensitive [17][45][75]. - Traditional crops may see mild gains from higher fertilizer costs, but historical data shows low sensitivity in agricultural markets [18][45][75]. U.S. Treasuries - A prolonged conflict could erode the safe-haven appeal of U.S. assets [19][46][76]. - Treasury yields are more tied to domestic fundamentals than geopolitics [19][46][76]. Chinese Government Bonds - Risk-off sentiment may support bond markets, but policy uncertainty looms [20][48][78]. - Short-term, bonds may see upward momentum, but pre-meeting policy speculation could lead to range-bound trading. Medium-term, potential RRR/cut cuts may support a bullish bias [20][48][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market may continue to be in a period of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak state and is likely to be short - sold. However, in the medium to long term, commodity bulls are expected to continue [35][42]. - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, such as the US - Israel military strikes on Iran, have become a core driver for short - term price movements in precious metals, crude oil, and other commodities. The development of the situation will significantly impact prices [8][12][14]. - For different industries, specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy expectations will affect price trends. For example, in the metals industry, factors like supply disruptions and downstream demand recovery are crucial; in the energy and chemical industry, supply - demand balance and cost changes play important roles; in the agricultural products industry, factors such as production, consumption, and trade policies are key [12][14][78]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Military conflicts between the US and Iran, OPEC's production increase plan, new developments in large - scale models, and the militarization of artificial intelligence are the main factors affecting the stock index [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Amid the US - Iran conflict and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Military conflicts between Israel and Iran, Trump's plan to negotiate with Iran, and the central bank's reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Inflation recovery may potentially suppress the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not yet stable. The short - term safe - haven sentiment in the market due to the US - Iran conflict is beneficial for the bond market, but the subsequent trend depends on the intensity and duration of the conflict. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to price increases in precious metals. The price trend depends on the development of the war [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The opening prices of gold and silver are expected to gap up. If the war expands, the upward trend may continue; if the situation eases, prices are likely to return to high - level consolidation. A short - term long - position strategy is recommended [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Geopolitical concerns have led to a mixed performance in copper prices. LME and domestic inventories have changed, and the basis has adjusted [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors and supply - side constraints support copper prices. With the improvement of downstream operating rates, the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. Short - term copper prices are strongly supported but with increased volatility [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Geopolitical factors have caused aluminum prices to oscillate. Inventory and basis have changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although domestic aluminum ingot inventories are at a relatively high level, they are expected to peak earlier than in previous years. Geopolitical risks increase the supply risk in the Middle East, and aluminum prices are strongly supported but with increased volatility [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have shown a slight increase. Domestic and foreign inventories and basis have changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak. Zinc prices may follow the upward trend of copper and aluminum prices due to relative valuation [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have shown a slight increase. Domestic and foreign inventories and basis have changed [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although lead inventories have increased significantly, the current price is at the lower end of the oscillation range. The narrowing of smelting profits may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. Short - term lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have shown a slight decline. Spot prices and cost factors have changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, nickel prices are expected to rise slowly due to the reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate to digest inventory pressure. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices have risen significantly. Supply - side concerns and demand - side recovery are the main factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the market has a strong sentiment to go long on tin prices, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, and inventories are rising. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices have shown a slight decline. Spot and futures prices have changed [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of lithium carbonate has been depleted during the Spring Festival, and the downstream demand is resilient. The short - term supply is expected to be tight. However, if the export ban on lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe is lifted, the impact on domestic supply may be limited. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking rhythm and market sentiment [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start - up have led to a contraction in inventory accumulation. The high - level of warehouse receipts registration due to the premium on the futures market suppresses the upward movement of prices. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side pressure has increased due to the arrival of steel mill resources after the festival. Although the market procurement atmosphere has improved, the actual demand from downstream users is still low. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate upward [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of production after the festival. Short - term prices are expected to rise [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, but the transmission of policies to the construction end takes time. The fundamentals of the black sector are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as construction site resumption rates, policy signals, and supply - side constraints [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed. Steel mills have received emission reduction notices during important meetings [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas supply has recovered after the end of weather - related impacts, and high inventories suppress price increases. The demand for iron ore is recovering, but the production of molten iron may be affected during important meetings. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [31]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal prices have shown a slight increase, and coke prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the festival, downstream users are in the active de - stocking stage, and coal production is gradually recovering. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in the second half of the year [34][35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined. Inventory has increased significantly, and the demand is weak [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of the glass market is stable, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. Glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Soda ash prices are stable. Inventory has increased, and the demand is weak [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of soda ash is relatively stable, and the demand is slow to recover. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices have increased. Inventory and basis have changed [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in iron alloy prices is mainly driven by market speculation and policy expectations. In the long term, the commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market may oscillate. The future trend of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the overall market sentiment and cost factors [42][43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to increase in March. Prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large - scale factories in the northwest and downstream demand changes [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Polysilicon prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in March, but the inventory is still high, and the demand feedback is not good. Polysilicon prices are expected to be under pressure. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to the US - Iran conflict, the prices of crude oil and naphtha are expected to rise, driving up the price of butadiene rubber futures. The natural rubber market has both bullish and bearish factors [49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have risen, and the inventory of refined oil products has changed [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has already factored in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum of methanol still exists, but the negative factors have weakened. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window for urea has opened, and the fundamentals are expected to be negative. It is recommended to short - sell [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward repair space of valuation is narrowing. It is recommended to gradually take profits [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. The domestic market is in a situation of oversupply, and the fundamentals are poor [63][64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory is under pressure. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. However, due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebounds, there is a risk of price rebound [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has declined, but there is still room for valuation increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX in the medium - term [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have increased. Inventory and basis have changed [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is currently in a stock - accumulation stage, but it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The supply - demand structure of p - Xylene and PTA is relatively strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The OPEC+ "moderate production increase" has led to an oscillating oil price. The PE valuation has room to decline, but the pressure on the disk has been reduced. The demand is expected to rebound after the Spring Festival [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP has been relieved, and the demand is expected to rebound seasonally. The overall inventory pressure may be alleviated. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have declined. The market is in a situation of oversupply [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The near - term pig prices are still bearish after the rebound, while the far - term prices are slightly bullish but with limited upside space. It is recommended to use reverse arbitrage or wait for the price to fall and then buy [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are stable. The supply is high, and the demand may increase in the short term but decrease later [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of laying hens is large, and the behavior of delaying culling and feather replacement may weaken the medium - term price increase potential. Attention should be paid to the valuation pressure on the far - term disk [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean exports, Brazilian soybean harvest progress, and domestic soybean inventory have changed [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rumor of an extended customs clearance time for South American soybeans has driven up the price of soybean meal. The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to increased import costs [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia have changed, and the inventory of vegetable oils in China and India has decreased [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger than that of palm oil and rapeseed oil. The geopolitical crisis may drive up the oil price. The medium - term outlook for oils and fats is bullish. It is recommended to wait for the price to stop falling at a low level and then buy [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar production in India, Brazil, and Thailand has changed, and the import volume of sugar in China has increased [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current raw sugar price is at a historical low, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil after April. It is not advisable to be overly bearish. The domestic sugar price may rebound. It is recommended to participate in long positions on dips [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton exports, domestic cotton inventory, and global cotton production and consumption have changed [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased significantly after the festival. It is recommended to focus on the downstream operating rate in March. If it cooperates, the cotton price still has room to rise. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. For the stock index, the strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they may enter a phased correction in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. For various metals, their prices are expected to fluctuate. For energy and chemical products, different strategies such as taking profits on rallies, waiting and seeing, and short - selling on highs are recommended according to different situations. For agricultural products, different investment suggestions are given based on the supply - demand situation of each variety [4][6][9]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Chinese government promotes AI innovation and development, and the US has positive employment data and fiscal deficit information. Elon Musk plans to build an AI satellite factory on the moon, and Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production quotas [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The divergence in US monetary policy expectations suppresses risk appetite in the capital market. Domestically, liquidity tightens seasonally before the Spring Festival. In the medium to long term, the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond prices show small changes. The CPI in January 2026 is lower than expected, and the PPI improves. The Ministry of Finance issues RMB 14 billion in treasury bonds in Hong Kong, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of RMB 40.35 billion [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be strong and volatile [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rise. The US non - farm payrolls data is better than expected, and the unemployment rate drops. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down, and the prices of gold and silver drop at night [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US employment data is strong, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down. Precious metals may enter a phased correction. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for Shanghai gold at 1100 - 1200 yuan/g and for Shanghai silver at 20000 - 21800 yuan/kg [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data is good, and copper prices rise. LME copper inventory increases, and the domestic spot is at a discount. The import of refined copper is at a loss, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widens [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US and China plan to increase copper reserves. The US economic data is volatile, and the manufacturing industry is strong. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the supply of refined copper is high. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai copper at 101000 - 104000 yuan/ton and for LME copper at 13100 - 13400 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation in the Middle East affects oil prices, and aluminum prices rise. Domestic aluminum inventories accumulate, and LME aluminum inventories decrease [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, but LME aluminum inventories are low, and the price of US aluminum is at a premium. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai aluminum at 23300 - 23800 yuan/ton and for LME aluminum at 3090 - 3160 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rise. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots starts to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation is average [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of zinc ore slows down, and the TC of zinc concentrate stabilizes. The domestic zinc industry is weak, but the strong US PMI may drive zinc prices up [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rise. The inventory of lead ore is higher than in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate is low. The inventory of waste batteries rises, and the social inventory of lead ingots accumulates [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic lead industry is weak. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise significantly. The spot premium is stable, and the price of nickel ore is stable. The price of nickel iron rises [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals and risk assets rebound, but nickel faces fundamental pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with the reference range for Shanghai nickel at 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton and for LME nickel at 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. The production of refined tin in Yunnan is stable, and that in Jiangxi is low. The demand for downstream products is weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals stabilize, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the increase in inventory. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for domestic tin at 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton and for overseas tin at 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The production and sales of power and energy - storage batteries in January increase year - on - year [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for lithium is strong, and the supply is affected. The game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect lithium prices. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rises slightly. The domestic spot is at a discount, and the overseas import is at a loss. The inventory of futures increases [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mine in Guinea is on strike. The over - capacity situation of alumina is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulates. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 at 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton [24][25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise. The supply of raw materials recovers, and the social inventory increases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The stainless steel fundamentals are supported, and the strategy is to buy on dips, with the reference range for the main contract at 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds slightly. The inventory decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy rises. Although the demand is average, the price is supported in the short term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw materials [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show small changes. The inventory of rebar accumulates, and the demand for hot - rolled coil is relatively stable [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The carbon - emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The black series is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and demand recovery [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rise slightly. The overseas shipment volume decreases, and the port inventory accumulates [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipment enters the off - season, and the inventory pressure is high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic iron - making production [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rise slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [36][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas coal - related disturbances boost sentiment, but the short - term upward drive is weak. The supply is expected to increase after the Spring Festival, and the price may correct. Coking coal may rise smoothly from June to October [39][40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases. Soda ash prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases [43][45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for glass and soda ash is weak. Glass is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range at 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to be weak, with the reference range at 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rise slightly, and ferrosilicon prices fall slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fall slightly, and polysilicon prices rise slightly. The supply of industrial silicon may contract, and the demand for polysilicon decreases [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Polysilicon's supply decreases, and the inventory may decrease slightly. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [52][54][56]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices follow the market to rebound. The opening rate of tire enterprises decreases, and the inventory accumulates [58][59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to reduce risks. It is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and use hedging strategies [61]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rise [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [63][64]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of methanol change slightly [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is advisable to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [66]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea change slightly [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window is open, and the fundamentals of urea are expected to be negative. It is advisable to short on highs [68]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene rises, and the price of styrene is mixed. The inventory of styrene accumulates, and the demand is in the off - season [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply is abundant. It is advisable to gradually take profits [70]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rise. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulates [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and operation [72]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rise. The supply load is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by reducing production. The valuation is neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound [74]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rise. The supply is in high - maintenance, and the demand decreases. The inventory accumulates [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA enters the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee is expected to be stable, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips in the medium term [76]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rise. The load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. The inventory accumulates [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [78]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The futures price of PE rises, and the spot price falls. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the off - season [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude oil price may bottom out. The PE valuation has room to decline, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The demand is weak in the off - season [80]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The futures price of PP rises, and the spot price is stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [82]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show mixed trends. Some regions have more slaughter, and some regions have less [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply is large, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The long - term demand may recover, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [85]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable, and some regions decline. The supply is stable, and the demand weakens [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the spot price is likely to fall. It is advisable to short the near - month contract. The long - term production capacity reduction needs to be observed [87]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic price of soybean meal is stable, and the price of rapeseed meal rises. The global soybean supply and demand are balanced, and the US soybean export decreases [88][89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in US soybean procurement may increase the supply pressure and import cost. The protein meal price is expected to fluctuate [90]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats fall. The domestic inventory of oils and fats increases, and the production and export of Malaysian palm oil change [91][92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The consumption of oils and fats increases more than the production. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [93]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price is stable. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data change [94][95]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space, and it is advisable to wait and see [96]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rises. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data are neutral [97][98]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream opening rate and the new cotton target price policy. It is advisable to go long at the lower end of the shock range [99].

Core Insights - The global commodity market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical easing, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances [15][23]. Market Overview - The overall market is in a fluctuating but strong trend, with the strongest sectors being crude oil, feed, non-ferrous metals, grains, and new energy [22][23]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw a rise of nearly 30% and 70% in January, respectively, before a sharp decline due to selling pressure following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman [20]. Trading Strategies - Key trading commodities include live pigs, fuel, and soybeans, with a focus on maintaining a cautious approach and locking in profits through phased selling strategies [24][25]. - The strategy for live pigs involved a trend-following short position, achieving an 11% profit before gradually reducing exposure [25][26]. Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar is supporting commodity prices, while geopolitical tensions are affecting energy supply chains [23]. - The end of the supercycle is putting pressure on exporting countries' finances, but it provides some relief for global inflation [21].