Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/3/1 How the U.S.-Iran Conflict Affects the Futures Market 美伊冲突如何影响期货市场？ | 陈冬科 | Chen Dongke | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03124206 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0023470 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 朱善颖 Zhu Shanying | | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03138401 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021426 | | 李云旭 Li Yunxu | | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03141405 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: ...

股指 文字早评 2026/03/02 星期一 宏观金融类 【行情资讯】 1、美军方称摧毁伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总部，伊朗多位军事指挥官确认死亡； 2、欧佩克 1 日发表声明说，8 个主要产油国决定 4 月日均增产 20.6 万桶，一艘试图通过霍尔木兹海峡 的油轮被击中； 3、DeepSeek 将于下周发布其最新的大模型 V4，并加速 AI 模型"推理"环节靠拢本土芯片； 4、OpenAI 签约五角大楼，美国加速人工智能军事化应用。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.08%/0.64%/3.75%/4.11%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：2.43%/3.14%/7.30%/6.57%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：5.55%/6.21%/12.76%/10.16%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-3.17%/-1.77%/-0.24%/2.28%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，人民币汇率强势升值带动外资流入，建议关注国内两会政策信号以 及战局转变，策略上仍是逢低做多的思路。 国债 【行情资讯】 【策略观点】 基本面看，1 月受春节错位因素影响，CPI 同比低于预期，而 P ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. For the stock index, the strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they may enter a phased correction in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. For various metals, their prices are expected to fluctuate. For energy and chemical products, different strategies such as taking profits on rallies, waiting and seeing, and short - selling on highs are recommended according to different situations. For agricultural products, different investment suggestions are given based on the supply - demand situation of each variety [4][6][9]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Chinese government promotes AI innovation and development, and the US has positive employment data and fiscal deficit information. Elon Musk plans to build an AI satellite factory on the moon, and Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production quotas [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The divergence in US monetary policy expectations suppresses risk appetite in the capital market. Domestically, liquidity tightens seasonally before the Spring Festival. In the medium to long term, the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond prices show small changes. The CPI in January 2026 is lower than expected, and the PPI improves. The Ministry of Finance issues RMB 14 billion in treasury bonds in Hong Kong, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of RMB 40.35 billion [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be strong and volatile [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rise. The US non - farm payrolls data is better than expected, and the unemployment rate drops. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down, and the prices of gold and silver drop at night [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US employment data is strong, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cools down. Precious metals may enter a phased correction. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for Shanghai gold at 1100 - 1200 yuan/g and for Shanghai silver at 20000 - 21800 yuan/kg [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data is good, and copper prices rise. LME copper inventory increases, and the domestic spot is at a discount. The import of refined copper is at a loss, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widens [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US and China plan to increase copper reserves. The US economic data is volatile, and the manufacturing industry is strong. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the supply of refined copper is high. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai copper at 101000 - 104000 yuan/ton and for LME copper at 13100 - 13400 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation in the Middle East affects oil prices, and aluminum prices rise. Domestic aluminum inventories accumulate, and LME aluminum inventories decrease [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, but LME aluminum inventories are low, and the price of US aluminum is at a premium. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with the reference range for Shanghai aluminum at 23300 - 23800 yuan/ton and for LME aluminum at 3090 - 3160 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rise. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots starts to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation is average [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of zinc ore slows down, and the TC of zinc concentrate stabilizes. The domestic zinc industry is weak, but the strong US PMI may drive zinc prices up [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rise. The inventory of lead ore is higher than in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate is low. The inventory of waste batteries rises, and the social inventory of lead ingots accumulates [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic lead industry is weak. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise significantly. The spot premium is stable, and the price of nickel ore is stable. The price of nickel iron rises [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals and risk assets rebound, but nickel faces fundamental pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with the reference range for Shanghai nickel at 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton and for LME nickel at 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. The production of refined tin in Yunnan is stable, and that in Jiangxi is low. The demand for downstream products is weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals stabilize, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the increase in inventory. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for domestic tin at 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton and for overseas tin at 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The production and sales of power and energy - storage batteries in January increase year - on - year [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for lithium is strong, and the supply is affected. The game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect lithium prices. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rises slightly. The domestic spot is at a discount, and the overseas import is at a loss. The inventory of futures increases [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mine in Guinea is on strike. The over - capacity situation of alumina is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulates. It is advisable to wait and see, with the reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 at 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton [24][25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise. The supply of raw materials recovers, and the social inventory increases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The stainless steel fundamentals are supported, and the strategy is to buy on dips, with the reference range for the main contract at 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds slightly. The inventory decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy rises. Although the demand is average, the price is supported in the short term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw materials [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show small changes. The inventory of rebar accumulates, and the demand for hot - rolled coil is relatively stable [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The carbon - emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The black series is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and demand recovery [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rise slightly. The overseas shipment volume decreases, and the port inventory accumulates [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipment enters the off - season, and the inventory pressure is high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic iron - making production [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rise slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [36][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas coal - related disturbances boost sentiment, but the short - term upward drive is weak. The supply is expected to increase after the Spring Festival, and the price may correct. Coking coal may rise smoothly from June to October [39][40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases. Soda ash prices rise slightly, and the inventory increases [43][45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for glass and soda ash is weak. Glass is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range at 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to be weak, with the reference range at 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rise slightly, and ferrosilicon prices fall slightly. The spot is at a premium to the futures [47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fall slightly, and polysilicon prices rise slightly. The supply of industrial silicon may contract, and the demand for polysilicon decreases [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Polysilicon's supply decreases, and the inventory may decrease slightly. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [52][54][56]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices follow the market to rebound. The opening rate of tire enterprises decreases, and the inventory accumulates [58][59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to reduce risks. It is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and use hedging strategies [61]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rise [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [63][64]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of methanol change slightly [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is advisable to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [66]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea change slightly [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window is open, and the fundamentals of urea are expected to be negative. It is advisable to short on highs [68]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene rises, and the price of styrene is mixed. The inventory of styrene accumulates, and the demand is in the off - season [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply is abundant. It is advisable to gradually take profits [70]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rise. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulates [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and operation [72]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rise. The supply load is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by reducing production. The valuation is neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound [74]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rise. The supply is in high - maintenance, and the demand decreases. The inventory accumulates [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA enters the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee is expected to be stable, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips in the medium term [76]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rise. The load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. The inventory accumulates [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [78]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The futures price of PE rises, and the spot price falls. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the off - season [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude oil price may bottom out. The PE valuation has room to decline, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The demand is weak in the off - season [80]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The futures price of PP rises, and the spot price is stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [82]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show mixed trends. Some regions have more slaughter, and some regions have less [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply is large, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The long - term demand may recover, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [85]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable, and some regions decline. The supply is stable, and the demand weakens [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the spot price is likely to fall. It is advisable to short the near - month contract. The long - term production capacity reduction needs to be observed [87]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic price of soybean meal is stable, and the price of rapeseed meal rises. The global soybean supply and demand are balanced, and the US soybean export decreases [88][89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in US soybean procurement may increase the supply pressure and import cost. The protein meal price is expected to fluctuate [90]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats fall. The domestic inventory of oils and fats increases, and the production and export of Malaysian palm oil change [91][92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The consumption of oils and fats increases more than the production. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [93]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price is stable. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data change [94][95]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space, and it is advisable to wait and see [96]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rises. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data are neutral [97][98]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream opening rate and the new cotton target price policy. It is advisable to go long at the lower end of the shock range [99].

Core Insights - The global commodity market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical easing, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances [15][23]. Market Overview - The overall market is in a fluctuating but strong trend, with the strongest sectors being crude oil, feed, non-ferrous metals, grains, and new energy [22][23]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw a rise of nearly 30% and 70% in January, respectively, before a sharp decline due to selling pressure following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman [20]. Trading Strategies - Key trading commodities include live pigs, fuel, and soybeans, with a focus on maintaining a cautious approach and locking in profits through phased selling strategies [24][25]. - The strategy for live pigs involved a trend-following short position, achieving an 11% profit before gradually reducing exposure [25][26]. Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar is supporting commodity prices, while geopolitical tensions are affecting energy supply chains [23]. - The end of the supercycle is putting pressure on exporting countries' finances, but it provides some relief for global inflation [21].

Core Viewpoint - Urea futures prices experienced narrow fluctuations influenced by the overall commodity futures market, with no clear directional logic observed [1][4] Group 1: Urea Futures Market - The opening price of the urea futures 05 contract was 1787 yuan per ton, with a weekly high of 1798 yuan and a low of 1766 yuan, closing at 1776 yuan, showing a maximum fluctuation of 32 yuan [1][4] - The trading volume for the urea futures 05 contract was 664,000 lots, a decrease of 221,000 lots week-on-week, while the open interest was 222,000 lots, down by 2,460 lots [1][4] - The urea futures market is heavily influenced by energy commodities such as crude oil and coking coal, with geopolitical factors like the US-Iran conflict affecting prices [1][4] Group 2: Domestic Urea Market - The domestic urea spot market showed relatively weak performance, with futures impacting spot sentiment, leading to a temporary improvement in spot transactions, although overall market activity remained low [1][4] - Industrial demand for urea is declining due to reduced operating rates among downstream industrial manufacturers, while agricultural demand is increasing as preparations for spring planting begin [1][4] - Urea production is on the rise as natural gas-based urea plants resume operations, leading to a market condition of increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][4] Group 3: Production and Demand Trends - Domestic urea daily production has continued to increase, with an average daily output up by 11,900 tons compared to the same period last year [5] - The agricultural urea market is in a low-demand season, but there is a noticeable willingness to purchase urea at lower prices in anticipation of spring wheat fertilization after the holiday [5] - The international urea market is experiencing price increases, with expectations that India will soon announce a new round of urea import tenders, boosting market confidence [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for urea futures is optimistic, reflecting strong expectations for the upcoming peak season, with market participants showing considerable bullish sentiment [6] - There is a need to monitor the gap between market expectations and actual demand as the spring season approaches [6] - It is advisable to reduce positions in urea futures before the Spring Festival and wait for market developments post-holiday [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a Maike Futures basis statistics table dated February 4, 2026, at 9:00, covering various futures and spot prices [2]. Group 2: Core Data Metals - **Copper (CU)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.06%, with a decrease of -0.31% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -310, -670, and -850 respectively. The spot price is 101,320, and the source is SMM 1 electrolytic copper [3]. - **Aluminum (AL)**: The main contract basis rate is -0.98%, with an increase of 0.44% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -230, -332, and -395 respectively. The spot price is 23,290, and the source is SMM A00 aluminum [3]. - **Zinc (ZN)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.58%, with an increase of 1.34% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 145 and 82 respectively. The spot price is 25,050, and the source is SMM 0FFF [3]. - **Tin (SN)**: The main contract basis rate is 2.30%, with an increase of 6.71% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 8280, 7270, and 7420 respectively. The spot price is 381,900, and the source is SMM 1 tin [3]. - **Nickel (NI)**: The main contract basis rate is 2.12%, with an increase of 4.81% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 6380, 2030, and 5720 respectively. The spot price is 139,050, and the source is SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [3]. - **Industrial Silicon (IT)**: The main contract basis rate is 5.47%, with an increase of 0.06% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 510 and 485 respectively. The spot price is 88,520, and the source is SMM East China general 553 silicon [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.31%, with an increase of 0.49% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 2140, 2140, and 1900 respectively. The spot price is 147,200, and the source is Steel Union high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate [3]. - **Gold (AU)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.23%, with a decrease of -1.60% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are -0.50 and -2.36 respectively. The spot price is 1096.34, and the source is AuT + D: Shanghai Gold Exchange [3]. - **Silver (AG)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.72%, with an increase of 6.40% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 154, 779, and 1235 respectively. The spot price is 21,600, and the source is Ag(T + D): Shanghai Gold Exchange [3]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar (RB)**: The main contract basis rate is 3.58%, with a decrease of -0.03% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 111 and 28 respectively. The spot price is 3210, and the source is HRB400: 20mm: Shanghai [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC)**: The main contract basis rate is -0.46%, with a decrease of -0.12% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -15, -36, and -60 respectively. The spot price is 3250, and the source is Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract basis rate is 7.34%, with an increase of 0.20% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 57.1, 74.6, and 85.6 respectively. The spot price is 834.6, and the source is PB powder: 61%: Qingdao [3]. - **Coke**: The main contract basis rate is -11%, with a decrease of -1.92% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -110.0, -179.0, and -269.0 respectively. The spot price is 1605, and the source is metallurgical coke: quasi - first - class [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract basis rate is 5.14%, with a decrease of -2.19% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 60.0, -18.0, and -182.5 respectively. The spot price is 1227.5, and the source is main coking coal: Jixian: Mongolian No. 5 [3]. - **Steam Coal (ZC)**: The main contract basis rate is 12.65%, with no change (0.00%) compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -101.4, -101.4, and -101.4 respectively. The spot price is 700.0, and the source is Shanxi Q500: Qinhuangdao Port [3]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: The main contract basis rate is -5.87%, with an increase of 0.07% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -316, -390, and -466 respectively. The spot price is 5290, and the source is FeSi75 - B: Inner Mongolia [3]. - **Manganese Silicon (SM)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.44%, with a decrease of -0.03% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 84 and 40 respectively. The spot price is 5920, and the source is FeMn68Si18: Hebei [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract basis rate is 3.79%, with a decrease of -2.7% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 382 and 255 respectively. The spot price is 14100, and the source is 304/2B: 2.0*1219: Angang Lianzhong Wuxi [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans (A)**: The main contract basis rate is -6.18%, with an increase of 0.19% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -284, -318, and -318 respectively. The spot price is 4100, and the source is domestic first - class soybeans: Harbin [3]. - **Soybean Meal (M)**: The main contract basis rate is 11.11%, with an increase of 0.20% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 137, 303, and 189 respectively. The spot price is 3030, and the source is ordinary protein soybean meal: Zhangjiagang [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM)**: The main contract basis rate is 10.72%, with an increase of 1.31% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 241, 203, and 265 respectively. The spot price is 2490, and the source is ordinary rapeseed meal: Nantong [3]. - **Edible Oils and Oilseeds** - **Soybean Oil (V)**: The main contract basis rate is 6.98%, with a decrease of -0.94% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 564, 620, and 650 respectively. The spot price is 8650, and the source is first - grade soybean oil: Zhangjiagang [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI)**: The main contract basis rate is 8.19%, with a decrease of -1.26% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 910, 755, and 835 respectively. The spot price is 9970, and the source is rapeseed oil: Jiangsu [3]. - **Peanuts (PK)**: The main contract basis rate is 14.57%, with no change (0.00%) compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 1274, 668, and 990 respectively. The spot price is 9200, and the source is Baisha peanuts: 45% oil content, 9% water content, Changtu [3]. - **Palm Oil (P)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.73%, with an increase of 0.22% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 66, 120, and 200 respectively. The spot price is 9160, and the source is 24 - degree palm oil: Guangdong [3]. - **Grains** - **Corn (C)**: The main contract basis rate is 2.56%, with a decrease of -0.49% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 71 and 28 respectively. The spot price is 5355, and the source is Guoshenquan Port national - standard first - class corn [3]. - **Corn Starch (CS)**: The main contract basis rate is 4.03%, with an increase of 0.17% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 38 and 40 respectively. The spot price is 2572, and the source is the ex - factory price of corn starch: Changchun [3]. - **Agricultural By - products** - **Apples (AP)**: The main contract basis rate is -12.49%, with a decrease of -0.98% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are -1185 and 44 respectively. The spot price is 8300, and the source is the average price of red Fuji apples in Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan [3]. - **Eggs (JD)**: The main contract basis rate is 26.99%, with a decrease of -2.42% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 323, -123, and 3427 respectively. The spot price is 3427, and the source is eggs: Hebei Cangzhou [3]. - **Hogs (LH)**: The main contract basis rate is 12.90%, with a decrease of -1.62% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 1000 and -455 respectively. The spot price is 12600, and the source is external ternary hogs: Henan [3]. - **Soft Commodities** - **Cotton (CF)**: The main contract basis rate is 9.13%, with a decrease of -1.13% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 1337, 1207, and 797 respectively. The spot price is 15987, and the source is the cotton price index 328: Xinjiang [3]. - **Sugar (SR)**: The main contract basis rate is 3.74%, with an increase of 0.80% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 193, 183, and 80 respectively. The spot price is 5360, and the source is white sugar: Liuzhou [3]. Chemicals - **Methanol (MA)**: The main contract basis rate is -0.31%, with a decrease of -0.11% compared to yesterday. The current month basis is -86. The spot price is 2240 [3]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: The main contract basis rate is -2.1%, with no change (0.00%) compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -102, -208, and -296 respectively. The spot price is 3665, and the source is ethanol: East China [3]. - **PTA (TA)**: The main contract basis rate is -1.07%, with an increase of 0.15% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -55, -57, and -13 respectively. The spot price is 2005, and the source is PTA: East China [3]. - **Ethylene (EB)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.55%, with a decrease of -1.63% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 208, 415, and 480 respectively. The spot price is 7572 [3]. - **Short - fiber (PF)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.23%, with a decrease of -0.25% compared to yesterday. The current month basis is 20 [3]. - **Rubber (RU)**: The main contract basis rate is -1.13%, with a decrease of -1.23% compared to yesterday [3]. - **Asphalt (BU)**: The main contract basis rate is -1.18%, with a decrease of -0.60% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -54, -35, and 53 respectively. The spot price is 3250 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU)**: The main contract basis rate is -4.61%, with an increase of 2.60% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 94 and 85 respectively. The spot price is 3250 [3]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.78%, with a decrease of -0.24% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 120, 93, and 144 respectively. The spot price is 6920, and the source is the market price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S [3]. - **Soda Ash (SA)**: The main contract basis rate is -3.6%, with an increase of 0.16% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -136, -38, and -102 respectively. The spot price is 1163, and the source is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe [3]. - **Urea (UR)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.00%, with an increase of 0.95% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 0, 34, and 40 respectively. The spot price is 1770, and the source is small - particle urea: Henan [3]. - **LPG (PG)**: The main contract basis rate is 15.59%, with a decrease of -1.08% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 483, 813, and 688 respectively. The spot price is 4848, and the source is the market price in Guangzhou [3]. Financial Futures - **CSI 300 (IF)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.15%, with a decrease of -0.47% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 2.5, 7.1, and 35.1 respectively. The spot price is 4660.1 [3]. - **SSE 50 (IH)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.05%, with an increase of 0.09% compared to yesterday. The current month basis is 1.6. The spot price is 3034.6 [

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview, listing important economic data releases and central bank decisions in the week of February 2 - 7, 2026, and analyzing their potential impacts on different futures markets [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This week's key concerns - On February 2 at 09:45, Markit will release China's January SPGI manufacturing PMI; at 23:00, the US ISM will release the US January ISM manufacturing PMI [2]. - On February 4 at 21:15, the US ADP will release January ADP employment change [2]. - On February 5 at 20:00, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy report; at 21:15, the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision [2]. - On February 6 at 21:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm payroll report [2]. - On February 7, the People's Bank of China will announce China's January foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This week's hot - spot preview February 2 - China's January SPGI manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous value 50.1). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [3]. - The US January ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.3 (previous value 47.9). A slight increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures rise and suppress precious metal futures [4]. February 3 - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 11:30, and its governor will hold a press conference at 12:30. The Australian cash rate is expected to be raised by 25 basis points to 3.85% [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the euro - area January CPI preliminary value at 18:00. The expected euro - area January harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted preliminary value is 1.7% (previous value 1.9%), and the core harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted preliminary value is expected to be 2.3% (same as previous value) [6]. - The Federal Reserve will release the US December 2025 industrial output monthly rate at 22:00, with a previous monthly rate of 2.7% [8]. February 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late January at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [9]. - Markit will release China's January SPGI services PMI (expected 51.5, previous value 52.0) and SPGI composite PMI (expected 51.2, previous value 51.3) at 09:45. A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures and help treasury bond futures [10]. - The US ADP will release January ADP employment change at 21:15. The expected new employment is 45,000 (previous value 41,000). A slight increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures rise and suppress precious metal futures [11]. - The US ISM will release the US January ISM non - manufacturing PMI at 23:00. The expected value is 53.3 (previous value 54.4). A decrease may help precious metal futures rise [12]. - The US EIA will release the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 30 at 23:30. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [13]. February 5 - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy report at 20:00, and its governor will hold a press conference at 20:30. The UK central bank base rate is expected to remain at 3.75% [14]. - The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision at 21:15, and its governor will hold a press conference at 21:45. The euro - area main refinancing rate, deposit facility rate and marginal lending rate are expected to remain at 2.15%, 2% and 2.4% respectively [15]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31 at 21:30. The expected value is 212,000 (previous value 209,000). A slight increase may help precious metal futures rise and suppress other industrial futures [16]. February 6 - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm payroll report at 21:30. The expected seasonally adjusted new non - farm employment is 70,000 (previous value 50,000), the unemployment rate is 4.4% (same as previous value), and the average hourly wage monthly rate is 0.3% (same as previous value). An increase in new non - farm employment may suppress precious metal futures and help other industrial futures [17][18]. - The University of Michigan will release the preliminary value of the US February consumer confidence index at 23:00. The expected value is 55 (previous value 56.4). A decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures and help precious metal futures [19]. February 7 - The People's Bank of China will announce China's January foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves. The December 2025 foreign exchange reserves were $3,357.87 billion, and the gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces [20].

Group 1 - Israeli airstrikes in Gaza resulted in 32 deaths, with Hamas denying accusations of violating ceasefire agreements [2] - The majority of the casualties from the airstrikes were women and children, according to Gaza's civil defense department [2] Group 2 - Iran is reportedly in dialogue with the United States, as confirmed by President Trump [4][5] - Iranian officials indicate that a negotiation framework is gradually taking shape, despite media speculation [6] - The Iranian government has denied rumors regarding the assassination of a high-ranking military commander following an explosion in southern Iran [7][8] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in non-ferrous metal prices are attributed to a combination of factors, including U.S. economic data and market sentiment [10][11] - Analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments are a result of profit-taking and technical corrections, particularly ahead of the Chinese New Year [12] - Long-term demand for non-ferrous metals remains strong due to factors such as monetary easing and insufficient investment in mining [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has launched an action plan to enhance the linkage between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming to improve the global pricing influence and commodity trading capacity of Shanghai by December 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Landscape - Shanghai has developed a linked market structure for non-ferrous metals, including futures, spot, and over-the-counter derivatives, leveraging its financial market advantages and manufacturing base in the Yangtze River Delta [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has listed 11 non-ferrous metal futures and 10 options, with "Shanghai Copper" recognized as one of the three major global pricing centers for non-ferrous metals [2]. - The Shanghai Clearing House has been providing central counterparty clearing services for 20 swap and forward products across six industries since 2013, enhancing the risk management framework for non-ferrous metals [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Action Plan - The non-ferrous metals trade in Shanghai faces challenges such as insufficient linkage between futures, spot, and derivatives markets, limited international pricing power, and a lack of major international commodity traders [3]. - The action plan includes 18 specific measures across three main areas: enhancing market connectivity, increasing internationalization of the non-ferrous metals market, and fostering a supportive ecosystem for market participants [3]. - Proposed measures include improving settlement efficiency through the Commodity Clearing Link, exploring cross-border transactions, and establishing a market maker system for over-the-counter derivatives [3]. Group 3: Future Steps - The Shanghai Municipal Government and relevant departments will expedite the implementation of the action plan to strengthen market linkages and support the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metals industry [4]. - The goal is to create a collaborative policy environment that enhances Shanghai's resource allocation capabilities and global pricing influence in the non-ferrous metals sector [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, in the long - term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - For precious metals, in the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, in the double - wide cycle, the bullish sentiment of commodities continues, with the main focus on precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment [41]. - For black building materials, the prices of black series continue to oscillate in the bottom range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. - For energy and chemicals, different varieties have different trends, such as rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and some varieties have opportunities for long - term investment [51]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks, such as short - term support for the near - month contracts of live pigs and eggs, but medium - term pressure on some products [78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Policies include solving abnormal low - price problems in government procurement, supporting the real estate market, and promoting cross - border payment systems [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the long - term, and pay attention to the market rhythm in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Wednesday. Policies focus on urban renewal and real estate system construction. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 1227 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and foreign markets changed. The conflict over Greenland was alleviated, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper followed the trend of gold and fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount [10]. - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum fell slightly. The inventory of LME aluminum increased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Strategy**: The decline of aluminum price is limited, and it is still supported in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc fell. The inventory of zinc ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some zinc brands [14]. - **Strategy**: Zinc has room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead fell. The inventory of lead ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some lead brands [16]. - **Strategy**: The lead price may oscillate and adjust, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel fluctuated slightly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - **Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin rebounded. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were stable, and the inventory increased [20][21]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rebounded. The spot index and futures contract price increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The supply contraction expectation has not been falsified, but there is a callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina increased slightly. The inventory increased, and the overseas price decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range for the domestic contract [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel increased. The inventory decreased, and the raw material prices changed [26]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be strong, and the price may oscillate at a high level, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy oscillated. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume increased [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with strong cost support and general demand [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed. The inventory and production of hot - rolled coils and rebar changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The prices of steel products continue to oscillate in the bottom range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore fell. The inventory increased, and the supply and demand changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the price is supported in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's restocking and iron - water production rhythm [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [33][34]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The price of glass fell. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume changed [37]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is in a loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference price range for the main contract [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash fell. The inventory increased slightly, and the trading volume changed [39]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is in a weak - oscillating pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak, with a reference price range for the main contract [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [40]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and relevant factors, and there are opportunities for long - term investment [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand changed [44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate due to news disturbances, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by large factories [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon fell. The supply pressure is expected to ease [46]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillated and rebounded. The supply and demand, inventory, and spot prices changed [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil increased. The inventory of refined oil products in ports changed [52]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on heavy - oil spreads and go long on crude oil at the shale - oil break - even cost range [53]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [54]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is low, and there is room for long - term investment due to geopolitical expectations [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [56]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profit on rallies [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [60]. - **Strategy**: There is room for upward valuation repair of styrene non - integrated profit, and it is recommended to go long on non - integrated profit before the first quarter [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. In the short - term, there is support from electricity prices and export rush, and in the medium - term, a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64][65]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound in the short - term, and valuation compression is expected in the medium - term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [67]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to long - term investment opportunities [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. There are long - term investment opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [72]. - **Strategy**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The supply pressure is reduced, and the price is supported by inventory reduction [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. There are opportunities for long - term investment in the PP5 - 9 spread [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs mainly declined. The consumption and supply situation is analyzed [77]. - **Strategy**: The short - term near - month contracts are supported, but the medium - term supply pressure is high [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [79]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contracts are strong in the short - term, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the long - term outlook for the far - end contracts is uncertain [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by policies and imports [81]. - **Strategy**: The prices of protein meals have fallen to the previous low, with many negative news. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [82]. Oils - **Market Information**: The prices of oils futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by production, consumption, and policies [83][84]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fell. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports and production in different countries [86][88]. - **Strategy**: After the negative impact of production increase is realized, there may be a rebound in international sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton oscillated. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports, production, and consumption [90][91]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, there is room for the cotton price to rise. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then go long [92].