文字早评 2025/10/09 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、证监会召开"十五五"资本市场规划上市公司和行业机构座谈会，全面推进实施新一轮资本市场改 革开放，不断提升市场的吸引力、包容性和竞争力； 2、节假日期间、贵金属、铜、铝等有色金属期货收盘普涨； 3、全球存储芯片价格持续上涨，摩根士丹利的最新研报预测，人工智能热潮下，存储芯片行业预计迎 来一个"超级周期"； 4、中国核聚变装置 BEST 建设取得关键突破，有望在 2030 年通过核聚变发电点亮第一盏灯； 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.38%/-0.49%/-0.98%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-1.01%/-1.65%/-3.87%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.24%/-1.26%/-2.23%/-5.12%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.04%/-0.00%/-0.02%/-0.01%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧，储能、芯片及有色等板块崛起，市场成交量有 所萎缩，短期指数波动有所加大。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未 ...

Group 1 - China's September manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1] - A slight increase in both PMIs may support a rise in commodity futures and stock index futures prices, but could mildly suppress government bond futures prices [1] Group 2 - The USDA is set to release the quarterly grain inventory report, which will impact futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans [2] Group 3 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for September is anticipated to be 49.2%, an increase from the previous 48.7% [3] - A slight rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI may support increases in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while potentially suppressing gold and silver futures prices [3] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly crude oil inventory change, with the previous value showing a decrease of 607,000 barrels [4] - A continued decrease in crude oil inventory could support rising prices for crude oil and related commodity futures [4] Group 5 - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims, with expectations set at 215,000, down from the previous 218,000 [5] - A slight decrease in jobless claims may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices, except for gold and silver [5] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for September is expected to show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 previously, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% [6] - If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations while the unemployment rate and average hourly wage growth remain stable, it may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] Group 7 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting regarding oil production policies, with expectations of an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day and a potential lifting of a second batch of production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day [7] - The outcomes of this meeting are anticipated to impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have seen divergences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation, reducing market risk appetite. Short - term index faces uncertainty due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - run, with policy support for the capital market unchanged, the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in Q4, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market may oscillate under the intertwined situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and if the stock market cools and allocation forces increase, the bond market may recover [7]. - For precious metals, short - term interest rate cut expectations are frustrated, but the Fed's mid - term easing pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially paying attention to the rising opportunity of silver prices [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to have a certain degree of support in price, with some showing a trend of shock - strengthening or shock - running, mainly affected by factors such as Fed interest rate policies, trade situations, and industry supply - demand [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are under downward pressure due to weak demand, and the iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens after the festival. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, and manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [31][33][39]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is weak in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term; crude oil has short - term uncertainties; and methanol's fundamentals are improving [52][54][56]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, the pig price is weak, the egg price may stabilize after a small decline. Bean and rapeseed meal are under short - term pressure, and the price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term [74][76][81]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. The NDRC plans to build a new computing power network infrastructure. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry. The SASAC held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises. The new energy storage market is short of cores [2]. - **期指基差比例**: IF, IC, and IM show different negative basis ratios for different contract periods, while IH has positive basis ratios in some cases [3]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry [5]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 4115 billion yuan [6]. - **策略观点**: The bond market may oscillate in Q4, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond relationship [7]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: Domestic and foreign precious metals had different price changes, and the positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly [8]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to go long on dips, especially for silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: Copper prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis. Import losses and refined - waste spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [13]. - **策略观点**: Aluminum prices have strong support below [14]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak [16]. Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices increased slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong [17]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices oscillated, with changes in spot prices and costs [18]. - **策略观点**: Short - term observation is recommended, and long on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [18]. Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices oscillated, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [19]. - **策略观点**: Tin prices may continue to oscillate, and observation is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: Carbonate lithium prices had different changes, and the price of lithium concentrate was stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Carbonate lithium futures may oscillate within a range [22]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [23]. - **策略观点**: Observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [25]. - **策略观点**: Stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short - term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **策略观点**: Futures may be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [30]. - **策略观点**: Steel prices may be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: Iron ore prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **策略观点**: Short - term iron ore prices may be strong, but may adjust downward after the festival if downstream demand weakens [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: Glass and soda ash prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [34][36]. - **策略观点**: Glass can be considered slightly bullish in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [35][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [38]. - **策略观点**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend, and manganese - silicon may have potential driving factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices had a small increase, with changes in inventory and basis [41][44]. - **策略观点**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon prices may decline in the short - term [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: Rubber prices were weak, with factors such as expected state reserve sales and weather affecting the market [47]. - **策略观点**: Mid - term bullish, short - term weak, and observation is recommended after the festival [52]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: Crude oil and related product prices increased, with changes in inventory [53]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainties exist, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and observe [54]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: Methanol prices had small changes, with changes in basis [55]. - **策略观点**: The fundamentals are improving, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [56]. Urea - **行情资讯**: Urea prices declined slightly, with changes in basis [57]. - **策略观点**: Low - valuation and weak - driving, long positions can be considered on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [58]. - **策略观点**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and observation is recommended [59]. PVC - **行情资讯**: PVC prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [60]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: Ethylene glycol prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **策略观点**: In the short - term, inventory may be low, but it will accumulate in the fourth quarter, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [63]. PTA - **行情资讯**: PTA prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is complex, and observation is recommended [65]. Para - Xylene - **行情资讯**: PX prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [66]. - **策略观点**: PX may accumulate inventory, and observation is recommended [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: PE prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [68]. - **策略观点**: PE prices may oscillate upward [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: PP prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [70]. - **策略观点**: PP is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high [71]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price fluctuated slightly, with most areas seeing a decline [73]. - **策略观点**: The pig price may be weak, and short - term short positions on near - month contracts and reverse spreads are recommended [74]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was stable with a small decline in some areas [75]. - **策略观点**: The egg price may stabilize after a small decline, and short - term observation is recommended [76]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The price of US soybeans oscillated, and the domestic bean meal price was stable. The supply - demand situation was complex [77]. - **策略观点**: Short - term pressure exists, and in the medium - term, the market is expected to oscillate [78]. Edible Oils - **行情资讯**: The price of edible oils rebounded, and the supply - demand situation in Malaysia and Indonesia had different changes [79][80]. - **策略观点**: The price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term, and long positions can be considered on dips [81]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar price declined slightly, and the supply - demand situation in major producing areas is expected to change [82]. - **策略观点**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, and observation is recommended before the festival [83]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton price declined, and the supply - demand situation was complex [84][85]. - **策略观点**: The cotton price is affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price fluctuated at a high level before the National Day. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain, and domestic policies may be further strengthened. The recovery of peak - season consumption and high domestic maintenance will support the copper price [2]. - The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area. Although the inventory continued to accumulate during the peak season, it was still recommended to go long at low prices, and a strategy of going long on AD and short on AL could be considered for aluminum alloy [2]. - The zinc price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the domestic zinc fundamentals lacking support, and it was recommended to trade with a short bias in the range [2]. - The lead price broke through and then moved sideways, and it was recommended to go long at low prices in the range [2]. - The nickel price was expected to decline in the short - term after the interest - rate cut and remain in a state of oversupply in the long - term. It was recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and stainless steel was recommended for range trading [3]. - The tin price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the upward channel. Due to the tight supply of tin ore and the recovery of downstream consumption, it was recommended for range trading [3]. - The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for short - term long trading or to wait and see. The polysilicon price was expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, and it was recommended to wait and see [3]. - The lithium carbonate price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for cautious trading [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **China's Economic Data**: From January to August, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year; in August, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.4% [11][13][14][15]. - **US Economic Data**: In August, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 13 fell to 231,000 [16][17][18]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Trend**: The copper price first rose and then fell this week. Domestically, the trading enthusiasm increased after the price center moved down, and it was expected to maintain a high - level shock before the National Day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Currently, domestic smelters are in a high - maintenance period, but with the supplement of imported copper, the supply pressure is not obvious. Terminal consumption is still weak, and the inventory is stable with a slight increase [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. The downstream demand entered the peak - season rhythm, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to increase [2]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price Trend**: The zinc price fluctuated weakly last week, and it was expected to continue the weak shock [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc concentrate was loose, and refined zinc production remained high. Terminal consumption was weak, and domestic zinc inventories reached a high for the year [2]. 3.5 Lead - **Price Trend**: The lead price showed a shock - rebound trend, breaking through and then moving sideways [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory decreased, and the replenishment demand of battery enterprises was strong, supporting the spot lead price [2]. 3.6 Nickel - **Price Trend**: The nickel price fluctuated and declined last week, and it was expected to decline in the short - term and remain oversupplied in the long - term [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The refined nickel market was in an oversupply situation, the growth of nickel - iron prices slowed down, and the stainless - steel market had limited demand boost [3]. 3.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: The tin price continued to fluctuate in the upward channel [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry was expected to continue to recover, with inventories at a medium level [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon changed in different directions, and the market risk was relatively large [3]. 3.9 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Trend**: The carbonate lithium price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply was affected by mine - related issues, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal was good, with battery factories increasing production [3].

I. Report Summary 1. Core View The report presents the basis rate, month - on - month basis, and related price data of various futures and spot commodities, including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, steel products, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and stock index futures, providing information for investors to understand the market basis situation [4]. 2. Content Summary by Category Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The basis rate is 0.24%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The spot price is 79,990 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 79,800 yuan, 79,780 yuan, and 79,760 yuan respectively [4]. - Aluminum (AL): The basis rate is - 0.07%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The spot price is 20,780 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 20,775 yuan, 20,795 yuan, and 20,790 yuan respectively [4]. - Zinc (ZN): The basis rate is - 0.29%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24%. The spot price is 22,010 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 22,075 yuan, 22,085 yuan, and 22,115 yuan respectively [4]. - Lead (PB): The basis rate is - 0.79%. The spot price is 16,975 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 17,110 yuan, 17,130 yuan, and 17,135 yuan respectively [4]. - Tin (SN): The basis rate is - 0.01%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%. The spot price is 270,200 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 270,240 yuan, 270,460 yuan, and 270,420 yuan respectively [4]. - Nickel (NI): The basis rate is 0.93%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The spot price is 122,700 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 121,570 yuan, 121,700 yuan, and 121,890 yuan respectively [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The basis rate is 4.12%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. The spot price is 9,035 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 8,940 yuan, 8,980 yuan, and 7,932 yuan respectively [4]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): The basis rate is 0.95%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29%. The spot price is 73,470 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 72,620 yuan, 72,780 yuan, and 72,840 yuan respectively [4]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The basis rate is 0.05%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63%. The spot price is 824.53 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 824.10 yuan, 826.82 yuan, and 829.22 yuan respectively [4]. - Silver (AG): The basis rate is - 0.24%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The spot price is 9,811 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 9,808 yuan, 9,835 yuan, and 9,859 yuan respectively [4]. Steel Products - Rebar (RB): The basis rate is 2.64%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. The spot price is 3,230 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 3,054 yuan, 3,147 yuan, and 3,204 yuan respectively [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): The basis rate is 0.78%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. The spot price is 3,380 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 3,397 yuan, 3,354 yuan, and 3,367 yuan respectively [4]. - Iron Ore: The basis rate is 5.41%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.27%. The spot price is 843.3 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 800.0 yuan, 778.5 yuan, and 759.0 yuan respectively [4]. - Coke: The basis rate is - 3.58%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The spot price is 1,648 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 1,709.0 yuan, 1,848.0 yuan, and 1,893.5 yuan respectively [4]. - Coking Coal (JIM): The basis rate is 5.53%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.52%. The spot price is 1,270.0 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 1,203.5 yuan, 1,295.5 yuan, and 1,356.5 yuan respectively [4]. - Thermal Coal (ZC): The basis rate is 12.65%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50%. The spot price is 700.0 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are all 801.4 yuan [4]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The basis rate is - 6.36%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.51%. The spot price is 5,390 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 5,744 yuan, 5,850 yuan, and 5,930 yuan respectively [4]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The basis rate is - 0.34%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.33%. The spot price is 5,950 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 5,970 yuan, 6,014 yuan, and 6,032 yuan respectively [4]. - Stainless Steel: The basis rate is 2.14%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.47%. The spot price is 13,150 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 12,990 yuan, 13,235 yuan, and 13,470 yuan respectively [4]. - Glass (FG): The basis rate is - 4.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. The spot price is 1,150 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 1,208 yuan, 1,328 yuan, and 1,387 yuan respectively [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The basis rate is 1.95%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The spot price is 3,980 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 3,898 yuan, 3,947 yuan, and 3,962 yuan respectively [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): The basis rate is - 2.4%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The spot price is 2,920 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,993 yuan, 2,765 yuan, and 2,882 yuan respectively [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The basis rate is 5.26%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%. The spot price is 2,600 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,470 yuan, 2,357 yuan, and 2,435 yuan respectively [4]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The basis rate is 3.09%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. The spot price is 8,540 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 8,284 yuan, 8,022 yuan, and 7,946 yuan respectively [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): The basis rate is 0.76%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%. The spot price is 10,060 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 9,984 yuan, 9,495 yuan, and 9,415 yuan respectively [4]. - Peanuts (PK): The basis rate is 4.35%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.48%. The spot price is 8,200 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 7,844 yuan, 7,838 yuan, and 7,870 yuan respectively [4]. - Palm Oil (P): The basis rate is - 0.37%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. The spot price is 9,270 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 9,304 yuan, 9,108 yuan, and 8,784 yuan respectively [4]. - Corn (C): The basis rate is 6.57%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. The spot price is 2,320 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,164 yuan, 2,231 yuan, and 2,255 yuan respectively [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): The basis rate is 3.60%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. The spot price is 2,560 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,487 yuan, 2,574 yuan, and 2,596 yuan respectively [4]. - Apples (AP): The basis rate is - 5.81%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10%. The spot price is 7,800 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 8,430 yuan, 8,281 yuan, and 8,237 yuan respectively [4]. - Eggs (JD): The basis rate is 16.54%. The spot price is 3,650 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 3,418 yuan, 3,450 yuan, and 3,066 yuan respectively [4]. - Live Pigs: The basis rate is 0.55%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The spot price is 12,900 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 13,765 yuan, 13,385 yuan, and 13,905 yuan respectively [4]. - Cotton (CF): The basis rate is 11.29%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. The spot price is 15,319 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 13,725 yuan, 13,385 yuan, and 13,905 yuan respectively [4]. Chemical Products - Sugar (SR): The basis rate is 8.88%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90%. The spot price is 5,960 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 5,474 yuan, 5,456 yuan, and 5,474 yuan respectively [4]. - Methanol (MA): The basis rate is - 3.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.15%. The spot price is 2,270 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,346 yuan, 2,385 yuan, and 2,359 yuan respectively [4]. - Ethanol (EG): The basis rate is 1.80%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%. The spot price is 4,345 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 4,268 yuan, 4,330 yuan, and 4,338 yuan respectively [4]. - PTA (TA): The basis rate is - 1.41%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The spot price is 4,600 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 4,666 yuan, 4,704 yuan, and 4,740 yuan respectively [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): The basis rate is 1.79%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.82%. The spot price is 7,050 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 6,926 yuan, 6,963 yuan, and 6,931 yuan respectively [4]. - Styrene (EB): The basis rate is 0.54%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The spot price is 7,100 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 7,111 yuan, 7,202 yuan, and 6,789 yuan respectively [4]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The basis rate is 2.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The spot price is 6,500 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 6,368 yuan, 6,454 yuan, and 6,546 yuan respectively [4]. - Plastic: The basis rate is 1.56%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The spot price is 7,300 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 7,188 yuan, 7,233 yuan, and 7,280 yuan respectively [4]. - PVC (V): The basis rate is 9.79%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.10%. The spot price is 5,405 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 4,923 yuan, 5,228 yuan, and 5,347 yuan respectively [4]. - Rubber (RU): The basis rate is - 4.95%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The spot price is 14,800 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 15,570 yuan, 15,555 yuan, and 15,600 yuan respectively [4]. - 20 - Numbered Rubber (NR): The basis rate is 5.77%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.74%. The spot price is 13,009 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 12,380 yuan, 12,475 yuan, and 12,440 yuan respectively [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): The basis rate is - 6.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. The spot price is 1,216 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 1,306 yuan, 1,40

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting interest rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Volatility may increase after the Fed's decision [2]. - The technology sector has regained strength in the stock index futures market, with funds rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a long straddle options strategy can be considered [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has initially stabilized around 1.8%. The central bank's bond - buying expectations have increased, and the bond futures market has first declined and then risen. Traders are advised to wait and see and focus on the capital, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - Pre - Fed decision, the loose expectation has caused the US dollar index to fall to its lowest point this year. Gold and silver prices have fluctuated. After the decision, silver volatility may rise and then fall [2]. - The main container shipping index (European line) has shown weak and volatile performance, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices are expected to be strong, supported by factors such as increased shipments, rising pig iron production, and replenishment demand [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, seasonal maintenance, and macro - environment. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of products such as corn, soybeans, and livestock are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [2]. - In the special and new energy product sectors, the prices of products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment and cost, and different trading stances are recommended [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology sector has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility declines, a long straddle options strategy can be tried [2]. Treasury Futures - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has stabilized around 1.8%. The central bank's bond - buying expectations have increased. Traders are advised to wait and see and focus on short - term market changes [2]. Precious Metals - Pre - Fed decision, the US dollar index has fallen, and gold and silver prices have fluctuated. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. Different options strategies are recommended for gold and silver [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main index has shown weak and volatile performance, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [2]. Black Metals - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced. Coking coal, iron ore, and coke prices are expected to be strong. Specific ranges for long - buying and spread - trading strategies are provided [2]. Energy and Chemical - Different products have different supply - demand situations. For example, PX and PTA are expected to have different short - term supply - demand conditions. Various trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, range - trading, and spread - trading are recommended for each product [2]. Agricultural Products - The prices of products such as corn, soybeans, and livestock are affected by supply, demand, and seasonal factors. Different trading suggestions are provided for each product, such as waiting and seeing, range - trading, and position - adjustment [2]. Special and New Energy Products - Products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by market sentiment and cost. Different stances such as waiting and seeing and range - trading are recommended [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. August retail sales month-on-month rate is expected to be 0.3%, down from the previous value of 0.5% [1] - The U.S. August industrial production month-on-month rate is anticipated to be 0%, an improvement from the previous value of -0.1% [2] - The U.S. crude oil inventory change for the week ending September 12 is expected to show an increase from the previous value of 3.939 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the policy rate range to 4%–4.25% [4] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and keep the 10-year government bond yield target unchanged [5]

Report Overview - The report provides a weekly preview of key economic events and their potential impacts on the futures market from September 15 - 19, 2025 [2][3][5] Key Economic Events and Their Impacts September 15 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities at 09:30, and the report's impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation at 10:00, releasing macro - economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and total retail sales of consumer goods. If 1 - 8 months' urban fixed - asset investment growth is slightly lower than the previous value, 8 - month total retail sales of consumer goods growth is slightly higher, and 8 - month industrial added value growth is basically the same as the previous value, the impact on relevant futures prices will be neutral. Expected 1 - 8 months' cumulative year - on - year growth of urban fixed - asset investment is 1.4% (1 - 7 months was 1.6%); 8 - month year - on - year growth of above - scale industrial added value is 5.7% (7 months was 5.7%); 8 - month year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods is 3.8% (7 months was 3.7%); 8 - month surveyed unemployment rate is expected to be 5.2% (7 months was 5.2%) [4] September 16 - The US Department of Commerce will release US August retail sales at 20:30. Expected August retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value was 0.5%); expected core retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value was 0.3%). A slightly lower retail sales monthly rate will mildly help gold and silver futures prices rise but mildly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices [5] - The Federal Reserve will release US August industrial output at 21:15. Expected August industrial output monthly rate is 0% (previous value was - 0.1%). A slightly higher industrial output monthly rate will mildly help non - ferrous metals futures prices rise but mildly suppress gold and silver futures prices [8] September 17 - The US Department of Commerce will release August building permits and new housing starts at 20:30. Expected August annualized total of building permits is 1.37 million (previous value was 1.362 million); expected August annualized total of new housing starts is 1.4 million (previous value was 1.428 million) [9] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 20:30, expected to cut the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% [10] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 12 at 22:30. If the inventory continues to increase, it will suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [11] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) will release the global metal supply - demand report, and its impact on relevant non - ferrous metals futures prices should be noted [12] September 18 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, and economic forecast summary at 02:00, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. There is a 93.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut to 4% - 4.25%, and a very slight possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. If the monetary policy statement and Powell's speech imply continuous 25 - basis - point rate cuts on October 29 and December 10 (US Eastern Time), it will help commodity and index futures prices rise but suppress Treasury bond futures prices [13] - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% [14] - The US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 at 20:30. Expected number is 270,000 (previous value was 263,000). A slightly higher number will mildly suppress industrial product futures prices (except gold and silver) but mildly help gold and silver futures prices rise [15] September 19 - The Bank of Japan will announce the interest rate decision at 11:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield target unchanged [16] Other Factors to Note - Pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials for their impacts on the futures market [2]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Eurozone's August CPI preliminary value is expected to remain at 2.0%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is anticipated to be 48.6%, slightly up from the previous 48 [2] - US factory orders for July are projected to show a month-on-month decline of 1.4%, an improvement from the previous decline of 4.8% [3] Group 2: Employment Data - The ADP employment change for August is expected to show an increase of 70,000 jobs, down from the previous 104,000 [5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 are forecasted to be 226,000, slightly lower than the previous 229,000 [6] - The non-farm payroll report for August is expected to show an adjusted increase of 78,000 jobs, up from 73,000, with an unemployment rate forecasted at 4.3%, slightly higher than the previous 4.2% [7] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, which will be closely monitored for its impact on related futures prices [4]