2025 年 8 月 25 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-08-25 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 8 月 25 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。 8 月 27 日 09:30，中国国家统计局将公布 7 月及 1-7 月规模以上工业企业利润。 8 月 28 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布 2025 年第二季度 GDP 修正值。 8 月 29 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布 7 月 PCE 物价指数。 8 月 31 日 09:30，国家统计局与中国物流与采购联合会将公布中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI、8 月官方非制 ...

Group 1 - The core message from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference indicates a strong signal for potential interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in U.S. stock markets and a significant rise in Chinese assets [1][3] - The probability of a rate cut in September has increased from 75% to 90% following Powell's remarks, causing the U.S. dollar index to drop and boosting gold and non-ferrous metal futures [1][10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to guide the construction of computing power facilities and accelerate breakthroughs in key technologies such as GPU chips, which is seen as a positive development for the industry [1][5] Group 2 - In the context of the futures market, gold, silver, and other metal futures have shown signs of upward movement after a period of consolidation, particularly influenced by the decline in the U.S. dollar index [7][10] - Participants in the futures simulation competition are optimistic about sectors such as the Huawei Ascend industry chain, chip manufacturing, and advanced packaging, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [5][10] - The ongoing "Economic Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Championship" offers participants a risk-free environment to practice trading with virtual funds, enhancing their trading skills and market understanding [11][13]

文字早评 2025/08/22 星期五 宏观金融类 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.33%/-0.62%/-1.10%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.71%/-1.30%/-2.59%/-4.48%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.71%/-1.38%/-2.85%/-4.97%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.11%/0.07%/0.18%/0.29%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后，市场在短期可能会出现震荡加剧的现象。 但从大方向看，仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 股指 消息面： 1、5000 亿"准财政"工具将出 重点支持新兴产业、基础设施等； 2、为促进生猪市场平稳运行 国家将于近期开展中央冻猪肉储备收储; 3、美对欧盟多数商品征收关税税率最高 15% 涵盖汽车、药品、半导体芯片和木材，欧盟将取消对美国 所有工业品关税并对美农产品提供优惠市场准入； 4、美国与欧盟发表联合声明：欧盟承购美能源产品、人工智能芯片及国防装备。 贵金属 沪金跌 0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to oscillate. China's anti - involution in multiple industries has led to some varieties being boosted, while profit - taking in leading anti - involution sectors has caused adjustments in industrial products. The suspension of a 24% tariff for 90 days is beneficial to the industry. With China's positive policies, the overall situation of non - ferrous metals remains strong despite fluctuations [11][12]. - The market generally believes that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in September is high. Although inflation expectations have rebounded, the Fed's decision - making independence is being questioned [12]. - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and policy impacts. Each metal has different trends and investment strategies [13][14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - level**: The non - ferrous metals sector continues to oscillate. China's anti - involution in industries like black metals, photovoltaics, and building materials has affected the sector. The suspension of a 24% tariff for 90 days is positive for the industry. China has introduced a series of positive policies, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September [11][12]. - **Single - product analysis**: - **Copper**: Supply and demand are both strong, with demand rising faster. Social inventory is decreasing, and production remains high. The price center is expected to rise, and short - term support is at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton, with resistance at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Zinc**: Supply increases while demand is weak. It shows a phased shock, with resistance at 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton and support at 21800 - 22000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, it can be shorted on rallies [7]. - **Aluminum and its industry chain**: Cost decreases, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. Alumina prices are slightly down, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy is under pressure [5]. - **Tin**: It shows a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to trade in the range of 250000 - 290000 yuan/ton, with high - selling and low - buying strategies [5]. - **Lead**: It is in a consolidation phase. It can be bought on dips in the short - term, with support at 16500 - 16600 yuan/ton and resistance at 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Nickel supply is in surplus, and stainless steel supply increases while demand is weak. Nickel can be shorted on rallies in the mid - term, and stainless steel can be considered long if the support level holds [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, such as copper closing at 79060 yuan/ton with a 0.73% increase, and zinc closing at 22505 yuan/ton with a 0.04% decrease [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, for example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price is 79260 yuan/ton with a 0.45% decrease, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22440 yuan/ton with a 0.36% decrease [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Tracking of Key Data in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Multiple charts are used to show the changes in inventory, processing fees, prices, and other data of various non - ferrous metals, such as the exchange copper inventory change and SMM social copper inventory change [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Recommended arbitrage strategies include the positive spread between copper 2509 - 2510 contracts and the reverse spread between alumina 2502 - 2509 contracts [16]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Different option strategies are recommended for each metal, such as selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options for copper, and buying bull spreads for zinc [3][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity sectors. Market trends are influenced by a combination of factors such as policy announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical events. For instance, the extension of tariff exemptions in the Sino - US trade talks and inflation data in the US have had significant impacts on different futures markets [2][4][9]. - Different futures markets have their own specific outlooks. In the financial futures market, the stock index continues to rise, while the bond futures are under pressure. In the precious metals market, gold and silver prices stop falling and rebound due to inflation data and geopolitical factors. In the shipping market, the container shipping index shows a downward trend. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares showed an upward trend on August 12, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased. The extension of tariff exemptions in the Sino - US trade talks and the release of relevant policies have affected the market. It is recommended to sell MO2509 put options at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [2][3][5]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures mostly declined, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose. The release of consumption - boosting policies has increased risk appetite and suppressed the bond market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. A steeper yield curve strategy can be considered [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US inflation data remained moderate, which increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The suspension of tariffs in the Sino - US trade talks also affected the market. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and use silver put options to build a bullish spread strategy [8][9][10]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The container shipping index continued to decline. The global container capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in Europe and the US showed certain characteristics. It is expected that the market will be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12][13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices strengthened slightly. The market expected an increased probability of interest - rate cuts in September due to inflation data, and the extension of tariff exemptions reduced short - term risks. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, but the price had support. It is recommended to expect the main contract to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [15][17][18]. - **Alumina**: The market was concerned about supply due to news events. Although the current supply was expected to increase in the medium - term, the short - term price might fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [20][21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices were in a high - level narrow - range shock. The supply was stable, but the demand was weak, and there were macro uncertainties. It is expected that the price will be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20000 - 21000 [22][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Terminal consumption was weak in the off - season, and the social inventory was close to full capacity. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, but the demand was suppressed. The price was expected to fluctuate widely between 19200 - 20200 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The market priced in an increased probability of interest - rate cuts in September. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak, but the low inventory provided support. The price was expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [26][28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was affected by the expected interest - rate cuts. Supply and demand were both expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The disk maintained a relatively strong operation, but the medium - term supply was expected to be abundant. The price was expected to adjust within the range of 120000 - 126000 [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The disk oscillated strongly, but the demand was still a drag. The cost support was strengthened, but the fundamental demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate strongly between 13000 - 13500 [35][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price fluctuated greatly due to news. The current supply and demand were in a tight balance. The price was expected to fluctuate widely in a relatively strong range between 80000 - 90000, and attention could be paid to the positive spread opportunity between near and far months [39][41][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices were supported as the steel mill inventory did not increase significantly. The cost increased, and the profit improved. The supply was expected to increase in the third quarter, and the demand was stable. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price followed the steel price. The global shipment decreased, the demand was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures rose strongly. The supply was tight, the demand was stable, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [48][49][50]. - **Coke**: The coke futures rose, and the sixth - round price increase was launched. The supply was difficult to increase, the demand was supported, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of rapeseed meal increased due to the anti - dumping decision on Canadian rapeseed, and the price of soybean meal was affected by the USDA report. It is recommended to hold the 01 long positions [54][55][56]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were both weak in the short - term, and the 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn weakened, and the disk oscillated at a low level. The supply pressure was still significant in the medium - and long - term, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [59][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market has different trends and influencing factors in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, policies continue to support the capital market, but short - term shocks may occur. In the commodity market, the "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact on prices, and prices will gradually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades. Different industries have their own supply - demand relationships and price trends, and investors need to make decisions based on specific situations [3][30]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - **News**: Three departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and nine departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Business Entity Loans". Cambrian refuted false information, and the US July CPI data was released [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios for different periods. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, but the general direction is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. Relevant policies on tariff adjustment and interest subsidies were released. The central bank conducted 1146 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. - **Strategy**: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but the PMI in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the bond market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [4][5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: The prices of domestic and international gold and silver had different trends. The US 7 - year CPI data was released, which is conducive to the Fed's further easing policy. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 787 yuan/gram, and that for Shanghai silver is 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [6][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Affected by the weakening of the US dollar index, copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, and the situation in Guangdong improved. - **Price**: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai copper is 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton, and that for LME copper 3M is 9700 - 9900 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market**: The commodity atmosphere was strong, and aluminum prices rebounded. The inventory in China increased slightly, and the spot discount narrowed. The LME inventory increased slightly. - **Price**: The aluminum price has support, but there is also pressure from weak consumption and trade situations. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 20700 - 20900 yuan/ton, and that for LME aluminum 3M is 2590 - 2640 US dollars/ton [11]. Zinc - **Market**: The zinc price fluctuated. Zinc ore is in a loose state, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase. The overseas registered warehouse receipts continue to decline. - **Price**: Although the medium - term industry is in an over - supply situation, the short - term price decline is difficult due to the support of low overseas warehouse receipts [12]. Lead - **Market**: The lead price rose slightly. The port inventory of lead ore increased in August, the production of primary and secondary lead increased slightly, but the downstream consumption pressure was large. - **Price**: The short - term price decline is difficult due to the possible structural disturbance in the LME market [13]. Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The price of nickel ore was stable, the sentiment in the nickel - iron market improved, but the consumption of refined nickel was still weak. - **Operation**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [14]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the short - term smelting end is still under pressure. The domestic consumption is weak, while the overseas demand is strong. - **Price**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton in China and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in LME [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The sentiment driven by the shutdown of large domestic mines is stronger than the actual change in fundamentals. - **Operation**: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can choose the entry point according to their own operations. The reference operating range for the 2511 contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 79000 - 87000 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rose, driven by the strengthening of bauxite control in Shanxi and the political uncertainty in Guinea. The spot price in some areas decreased, and the import window was closed. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies after the short - term bullish sentiment fades. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: The price of the stainless - steel main contract declined slightly. The spot price in some areas changed, and the raw material price increased. The social inventory decreased. - **Trend**: The short - term market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may fluctuate strongly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rose slightly. The spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. - **Trend**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The upward space of the price is limited [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil was increasing. The supply and demand of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. - **Outlook**: If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery and cost support [22][23]. Iron Ore - **Market**: The price of the iron - ore main contract rose. The overseas shipment and arrival volume decreased, the iron - water output decreased slightly, and the port inventory fluctuated slightly. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure is not significant in the short - term, and the demand has support. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal demand changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The price of glass decreased. The inventory increased, and the demand from the real - estate sector has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term trend depends on policies and demand [26]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash increased. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term price center may rise, but the upward space is limited [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The manganese - silicon main contract rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract declined slightly. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate. The future demand of the black sector may weaken [28][29][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [32][33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon declined. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and both long and short positions should be cautious [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU rebounded. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - making industry has different operating rates, and the inventory decreased. - **Operation**: It is recommended to take a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [37][38][41]. Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil futures declined, while INE crude oil futures rose. The inventory of refined oil products in Fujeirah Port increased. - **Viewpoint**: The current oil price is undervalued, and it is a good opportunity for left - hand layout. If the geopolitical premium reappears, the oil price may rise [42]. Methanol - **Market**: The 09 contract of methanol rose. The domestic start - up rate declined, the enterprise profit was high, and the port inventory increased. - **Strategy**: The methanol valuation is high, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. Urea - **Market**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The domestic start - up rate declined, the enterprise profit was low, and the demand was weak. - **Strategy**: The urea valuation is low, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [44][45]. Styrene - **Market**: The spot and futures prices of styrene rose, and the basis weakened. The cost support exists, the supply increased, and the demand decreased. - **Trend**: The BZN may be repaired, and the price may rise with the cost after the port inventory is reduced [46]. PVC - **Market**: The PVC09 contract rose. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the ethylene cost increased. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the export situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The EG09 contract rose. The supply and demand changed slightly, and the port inventory increased. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals will weaken in the short - term, and the valuation may decline [49][50]. PTA - **Market**: The PTA09 contract rose. The production and demand increased slightly, and the inventory accumulated. - **Strategy**: The PTA processing fee space is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX in the peak season [51]. Para - xylene - **Market**: The PX09 contract rose. The load increased, the downstream PTA had short - term maintenance, and the inventory decreased. - **Viewpoint**: The valuation has support, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The PE futures price rose. The market expects favorable policies, the cost supports, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. - **Trend**: The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions [53][54]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The PP futures price declined. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. - **Trend**: The price may follow the crude - oil price and fluctuate strongly in July [55]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: The domestic pig price was stable with slight fluctuations. The spot and futures prices deviated. The current inventory release can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - **Market**: The national egg price was mostly stable with slight increases in some areas. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was average. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The price of US soybeans rose at the low point. The rapeseed meal reversed, and the soybean meal was driven up. The import of Canadian rapeseed was restricted. - **Strategy**: The soybean market is mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips in the low - cost range and pay attention to relevant factors [59][60]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: The domestic palm oil continued to rise, and the rapeseed oil rose due to the anti - dumping ruling. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price may be stable in the short - term and rise in the fourth quarter, but the upward space is limited [61][63]. Sugar - **Market**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The export of Brazilian sugar increased in the first week of August. - **Outlook**: The international and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and the Zhengzhou sugar price may continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The Sino - US tariff suspension continued for 90 days. The downstream consumption was average, and the inventory removal slowed down. - **Trend**: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [65].

Investment Rating - The report focuses on identifying investment opportunities in industries that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in coal, steel, and building materials sectors, which are characterized by high levels of internal competition and effective policy execution [7][19]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the existence of a clear investment theme in the market, the establishment of a systematic and quantifiable analysis framework for industry selection, and the roadmap and timeline for investments [7]. - The macroeconomic context highlights that industrial profits are under pressure, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, leading to intensified competition within industries [7][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a national agenda aimed at optimizing industry structures and restoring profitability, driven by strong policy guidance [7][19]. - A dual-dimensional analysis model was constructed to evaluate the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, focusing on execution efficiency and the degree of internal competition [7]. - The investment conclusion emphasizes a focus on supply-side clearing, with coal, steel, and building materials industries expected to achieve rapid supply-side clearing and a V-shaped recovery in profitability due to their characteristics of high internal competition and high execution efficiency [7][19]. Summary by Sections Current Macroeconomic Background - Industrial enterprises are facing profit pressures, with the PPI continuing to contract, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [9][14]. - The report notes a significant correlation between PPI and industrial profits, suggesting that a recovery in prices is essential for profit recovery [14]. Model and Methodology - A quantitative model was developed to screen industries that would benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on execution efficiency and internal competition levels [7]. Conclusions and Strategies - The report suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and building materials are likely to be the first to experience supply-side clearing and profitability recovery, making them core areas of focus for investment [7][19].

宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、三部门印发《新一轮农村公路提升行动方案》，目标到 2027 年全国完成新改建农村公路 30 万公里， 改造危旧桥梁 9000 座； 2、国家电网公司经营区用电负荷连续三天创历史新高，预计明日国家电网经营区负荷仍将维持在 12 亿 千瓦以上的高位; 3、上海市具身智能产业发展实施方案印发：目标到 2027 年核心产业规模突破 500 亿元; 4、光伏协会：结合光伏行业实际情况，重点从价格行为规范、价格调控机制、价格监督检查、法律责 任及其他等方面，征集对《价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》的意见。 文字早评 2025/08/07 星期四 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.15%/-0.40%/-1.13%/-1.88%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.48%/-1.48%/-3.95%/-6.11%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.39%/-1.44%/-4.18%/-6.75%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.07%/-0.04%/0.04%/0.11%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks. Traders should pay attention to market sentiment changes, fundamental factors, and policy developments [2][3][6] - For most commodities, short - term price fluctuations are affected by market sentiment, especially the "anti -内卷" and supply - side reform expectations. However, in the long - term, fundamental factors such as supply and demand will play a more important role. Some commodities may face price adjustments due to over - speculation, while others may have potential based on their own fundamentals [33][37] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, industrial policies, and commodity futures market performance. The market has seen an all - around rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting and consider going long on IF index futures on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - On Monday, Treasury bond futures rose. The economic data in the second quarter was resilient, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. Short - term market sentiment in commodities and stocks suppresses the bond market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [3][4][5] Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals prices fell slightly, while overseas prices rose slightly. Geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have eased, and US economic data is resilient, putting short - term pressure on precious metals prices. However, the Fed's monetary policy may turn dovish, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on silver [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US is close to a trade agreement with the EU, and the dollar index rises. Copper prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs, as well as seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports [9][10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated. The domestic black - series commodities weakened, and aluminum inventories increased. Without unexpected policy announcements, market sentiment may be under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to low - level inventories and weak downstream demand [11] Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. Short - term factors such as Fed's dovish sentiment and overseas structural risks need to be considered, and caution is needed for price fluctuations [12] Lead - Lead prices fell slightly. Lead ingot supply is marginally tightening, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Environmental inspections may affect smelter operations, and there is a possibility of price strengthening. Caution is needed for price fluctuations [13][14] Nickel - Nickel prices fell. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron has an oversupply problem. In the short - term, the macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [15] Tin - Tin prices fell. Short - term tin ore supply is still tight, but downstream demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices fell sharply. The commodity market has cooled, and there is uncertainty in capital games. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders should choose appropriate entry points [17][18] Alumina - Alumina prices fell. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to relevant policies [19] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell. The market atmosphere has weakened, and the supply is expected to increase. If downstream demand cannot keep up, prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - news and downstream demand [20] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are weak. Although there is cost support, there is upward pressure on prices [21][22] Black Building Materials Steel - Steel prices fell. The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the cost has decreased. Export volume has decreased, and the fundamentals of different steel products vary. Attention should be paid to policy signals and downstream demand [24][25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fell. Overseas shipments are increasing, and demand is high but slightly declining. Inventory has increased slightly. Short - term prices may adjust, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - policies [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fluctuated. Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and may be volatile. In the long - term, they depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [28] - Soda ash prices fell. Supply has decreased, and inventory pressure has eased. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a sharp decline as sentiment fades. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, and relevant enterprises consider hedging [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices fell. Short - term prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices fell. Supply concerns may ease, and there are differences between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a spread trading strategy [39][40][41] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices showed different trends. The fundamental market is healthy, and there is upward momentum, but seasonal demand weakness in August will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a short - term target price [42] Methanol - Methanol prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of decline as sentiment cools. Fundamentally, supply may increase and demand may weaken, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [43] Urea - Urea prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply is decreasing and demand is weak. Exports are an important factor, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [44] Styrene - Styrene prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward [45][46] PVC - PVC prices fell. The fundamentals are weak with strong supply and weak demand and high valuation. Attention should be paid to export conditions and the risk of price decline after sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate. Demand is gradually improving, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following PX [49] Para - Xylene - Para - xylene prices fell. The load is high, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The short - term contradiction has shifted, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene (PP) - PP prices fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [52][53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices were stable to weak. The market is trading on policy intervention, and the supply - surplus logic has changed. It is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [55] Eggs - Egg prices fell. Supply is stable, and demand is average. Short - term prices of near - month contracts will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in post - festival contracts [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices fell, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. North American weather is favorable, and domestic soybean meal inventory is high. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range and look for opportunities to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [57][59][60] Oils and Fats - Palm oil exports and production data showed different trends. The domestic oil inventory increased slightly. EPA policies and other factors support the price center, but there are also bearish factors. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [61][62][63] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian port sugar shipments increased, and domestic import supply pressure may increase. Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64][65] Cotton - Cotton prices fell. Downstream consumption is average, and there is a potential negative factor of additional import quotas. The price has partially reflected the positive expectation, and caution is needed [66]

2025 年 7 月 28 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-07-28 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。 7 月 30 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布美国第二季度 GDP 初值。 7 月 31 日 02:00，美联储将公布利率决议。预期本次美联储议息会议将维持联邦基金利率不变。 7 月 31 日 09:30，国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会将联合发布 7 月官方制造业 PMI、非 制造业 PMI 和综合 PMI。 7 月 31 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布 6 月 PCE 物价指数 ...