Core Viewpoint - The central point of the news is the adjustment of the Chinese yuan (RMB) exchange rate against the US dollar, with the midpoint rate set at 7.0759, reflecting an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - As of December 1, 2025, the exchange rates for various currencies against the RMB are as follows: - 1 USD = 7.0759 RMB - 1 EUR = 8.2052 RMB - 100 JPY = 4.5331 RMB - 1 HKD = 0.90877 RMB - 1 GBP = 9.3616 RMB - 1 AUD = 4.6302 RMB - 1 NZD = 4.0535 RMB - 1 SGD = 5.4569 RMB - 1 CHF = 8.8013 RMB - 1 CAD = 5.0621 RMB - 1 MOP = 1.1343 RMB - 1 MYR = 0.58391 RMB - 1 RUB = 10.9581 RMB - 1 ZAR = 2.4199 RMB - 1 KRW = 207.50 RMB - 1 AED = 0.51934 RMB - 1 SAR = 0.53039 RMB - 1 HUF = 46.5104 RMB - 1 PLN = 0.51614 RMB - 1 DKK = 0.9103 RMB - 1 SEK = 1.3360 RMB - 1 NOK = 1.4302 RMB - 1 TRY = 6.00787 RMB - 1 MXN = 2.5854 RMB - 1 THB = 4.5432 RMB [2].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **Chinese export market** and the **RMB exchange rate** outlook for 2026, highlighting the resilience of Chinese exports despite US-China trade tensions and the strategic shift towards non-US markets [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Growth**: Chinese exports are expected to recover to approximately **5% growth** in 2026, aided by demand from Africa and Central Asia, compensating for the decline in exports to the US [1][2]. - **US Tariff Impact**: The likelihood of significant new tariffs from the US on Chinese goods is low, with existing tariffs having a diminished marginal impact due to the reduced share of exports to the US, now around **10%** [5][3]. - **Global Economic Policies**: The dual monetary and fiscal easing policies in major economies are expected to sustain overseas demand, with the US likely to continue a **rate cut cycle** into 2026, potentially lowering rates four times [1][7]. - **AI Investment Influence**: The expansion of AI investments in the US is driving demand for semiconductors and related products, positively impacting Chinese exports in these sectors [9][6]. - **Strengthening Trade Relations with Africa**: China has established zero-tariff treatment for all products with African nations, significantly increasing exports of construction machinery and related products, which are expected to grow further due to infrastructure demands [10][3]. Additional Important Insights - **RMB Exchange Rate Forecast**: The RMB is projected to appreciate against the USD, potentially reaching **6.7-6.8** by the end of 2026, driven by a surplus in the current account and increased net capital inflows [13][14]. - **Investment Trends**: Foreign investment in Chinese financial assets has been increasing, with a notable **62.29 billion CNY** net increase in A-shares, indicating a positive outlook for capital inflows [16]. - **Long-term RMB Outlook**: The RMB is expected to experience gradual appreciation with low volatility, potentially breaking below **7.0** against the USD by 2026, supported by favorable economic conditions and capital flows [17]. Risks and Opportunities - **Risks**: The main risks for Chinese exports in 2026 include potential fluctuations in US tariffs and global economic conditions, although these risks are expected to be mitigated by ongoing trade agreements and reduced reliance on the US market [5][6]. - **Opportunities**: The continued growth in non-US markets, particularly in Africa and ASEAN, presents significant opportunities for Chinese exports, enhancing resilience against market fluctuations [12][6]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, focusing on the Chinese export landscape and the RMB exchange rate outlook, while highlighting both risks and opportunities in the current economic environment.

[ WTO警告称，美国关税政策可能对国际贸易体系造成"80年来前所未见的破坏"，预计明年全球货物贸 易量增速将从今年的2.4%降至0.5%。 ] 今年，我国金融市场顶住了高强度外部冲击，呈现"股汇双升"。其中，人民币对美元汇率（如非特指， 本文均指人民币对美元双边汇率）摆脱了2022年以来跌多涨少的下行行情。尤其是11月24~28日（均指 当地时间，下同）最后一周，境内外人民币交易价连续升破7.07~7.10比1。前11个月，境内中间价累计 升值1.55%，即期汇率（指境内银行间市场下午四点半成交价）升值3.10%，离岸人民币汇率（CNH） 升值3.76%。 随着人民币止跌反弹，市场对于明年的汇率走势普遍趋于乐观，重估之旅、破7之旅甚至新周期之说又 甚嚣尘上。其实，在"十五五"时期我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的总 体判断下，与其去赌新周期还不如进一步适应双向波动新常态。 根据国际清算银行（BIS）编制的实际有效汇率（REER）指数，人民币REER自2022年3月起见顶回 落，到今年10月累计下跌17.3%。有人据此认为，人民币低估，需要升值。然而，同期日元REER也下 跌了16.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against external shocks in 2023, with a notable appreciation against the US dollar, leading to optimistic market sentiment regarding future exchange rate trends [1][12]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The yuan has appreciated by 1.55% in the onshore central parity rate and 3.10% in the spot exchange rate against the US dollar in the first eleven months of 2023 [1]. - The exchange rate volatility has significantly decreased, with the maximum fluctuation of the onshore central parity rate at 1.9%, the lowest since 2016 [2]. - The offshore yuan (CNH) has appreciated by 3.76% during the same period, indicating a general strengthening of the yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Recent developments, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and positive diplomatic engagements between China and the US, have fueled market optimism for the yuan [7][8]. - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of a stable economic environment, with expectations of further yuan appreciation if the Federal Reserve continues its easing policies [8]. Group 3: Economic Context and Policy Implications - The Chinese government aims to maintain the yuan's stability within a reasonable range, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for macroeconomic stability and growth, which supports the yuan's fundamental strength [9]. - The potential for a more flexible exchange rate policy could lead to wider fluctuations in the yuan's value, depending on economic conditions and external factors [12].

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 近期人民币汇率涨势明显，离岸人民币（CNH） 11月25日 报 7 .0 829 元 （单日涨 0. 3%），11月2 7日盘中最高升至7. 0653 ， 逼近 202 4年10月9 日高点。人民币近期 走强主要受内外因素共同推动，短期有望延续偏强 态势，对资本市场尤其是 A股和港股形成显著利好。 人民币近期 走强 主要 原因 外部环境改善 。 美元持续走弱， 2025年美元指数已累计下跌超7%，美联储降息预期升温 ， 12月降息概率升至 8 0%以上，削弱美元吸引力 。 中美利差 收窄， 美联储降息频率高于中国央行，中美 10年期国债收益率利差缩小，提升人民币资产性价比。 内部支撑强化 。 我国 经济韧性凸显， 我国 出口超预期增长 ， 如四季度结汇需求激增 ， 政策工具箱丰富， 这 夯实 了人民币 汇率基础 。 政策主动引 导， 我国 央行通过中间价持续释放升值信号，并收紧离岸流动性抑制做空， 这 稳定 了 市场预期。 此外， 外资增配人民币资产 。 国际投行集体 （ 如高盛、瑞银等 ） 唱多 A股，科技股吸引力增强，跨境资金回流中国资本市场加速，也提振了人民币汇 率。 人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with the RMB appreciating nearly 5% from its April low of 7.43 to around 7.07, marking a new high since October 14 of last year [1] Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The RMB's appreciation is significantly influenced by the market's rising expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has increased to approximately 80% since the dovish signals from the Fed on November 21 [1] - Despite fluctuations in the US dollar index due to the depreciation of the Japanese yen, the RMB has maintained a robust position, indicating a dual strength of both the dollar and the RMB [1] - The recent RMB appreciation is largely driven by market forces, reflecting a broader trend of strengthening against most currencies [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The foundation for the RMB's strength lies in China's resilient economic fundamentals, with exports continuing to grow despite US tariffs, and a GDP growth target of 5% appearing achievable [2] - China's significant position in the global supply chain and trade system provides a strong basis for its economic resilience amid trade tensions [2] - The recent policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition have stabilized key economic indicators, alleviating market concerns about persistent price declines and interest rate cuts, thereby boosting market confidence [2] Group 3: Internationalization of the RMB - The questioning of the US dollar's credibility due to high debt levels and protectionist tendencies has created opportunities for the internationalization of the RMB, with its global trading volume rising to $817 billion daily, accounting for 8.5% of global forex trading [3] - As of the end of October, the scale of offshore RMB loans by financial institutions reached approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 37.5% year-on-year increase, indicating accelerated international use of the RMB [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the solid economic fundamentals of China and the overarching trend of RMB internationalization, the RMB is likely to continue its strong performance [4]

对于人民币兑美元的走升，兴业证券指出，弱美元、国内基本面韧性和大国竞争力提升、央行稳汇率政策保持力度、年末结汇需求阶段 性释放等因素，共同驱动人民币汇率走强。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人民币对美元中间价持续向偏强方向调整，这或与年初以来国内经济走势偏强，美元大幅下 跌，而人民币兑美元汇价尽管有所升值，但未能与之充分匹配有关。这意味当前汇市调控正在向推动CFETS等人民币对一篮子货币汇率 指数适度上行方向发力。这有助于为我国外贸企业提供稳定的外部环境。此外，今年我国出口超预期，7月以来国内资本市场走强，再加 上近期中美经贸关系缓和。这些因素在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振了市场对人民币的信心。 新华财经北京11月28日电（马萌伟）近期，人民币兑美元汇率加速升值。28日，人民币对美元中间价下调10点报7.0789，年内涨幅为 1095个基点。截至27日收盘，今年在岸人民币兑美元累计上涨2183个基点，离岸人民币兑美元涨2635个基点。 市场分析称，伴随美联储未来还可能继续降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元指数上行空间有限。展望2026 年，人民币汇率走势或迎来多重利好因素，预计人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a new high since October 2024, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0796, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day, and a cumulative rise of approximately 1000 basis points this year [1]. Exchange Rate Performance - The offshore and onshore yuan both surpassed 7.09 against the US dollar on November 25, marking a new high in over a year. On November 26, both rates further strengthened, with the onshore yuan peaking at 7.0788 and the offshore yuan reaching 7.07595, the highest levels since mid-October 2024 [2]. - The CFETS yuan index reached 98.22, the BIS yuan index was at 104.66, and the SDR yuan index stood at 92.60, all reflecting a significant increase [2]. Reasons for Strength - The yuan's strength is attributed to multiple factors, including a positive domestic economic outlook, strong foreign trade performance, and increased capital market activity since July, which has boosted demand for yuan [3]. - The weakening of the US dollar, influenced by disappointing retail sales and signs of a softening labor market, has also contributed to the yuan's appreciation [3]. Market Expectations - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding the yuan's exchange rate, with expectations of continued strength in the short term. Analysts predict a stable trend with limited volatility against the US dollar, and a low likelihood of rapid appreciation above 7.0 before year-end [4]. - The demand for yuan is expected to remain balanced as the year-end approaches, with potential for moderate strength in the exchange rate [4]. Policy Factors - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to maintain the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [5]. - Factors such as economic recovery, stable US-China trade relations, and potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts are anticipated to positively influence the yuan's exchange rate in 2026 [5]. Global Context - The global foreign exchange market is undergoing significant changes, with the US dollar index rising while the yuan has appreciated independently against it. The year-end seasonal peak in currency settlement is expected to provide additional upward momentum for the yuan [7]. - Improved risk management practices among businesses and the increasing importance of price mechanisms in balancing market supply and demand are expected to further solidify the yuan's stability [7].

Core Points - The central exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.0789, which reflects a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - The People's Bank of China has authorized the publication of various exchange rates for the yuan against other currencies, including 1 euro at 8.2078, 100 Japanese yen at 4.5293, and 1 British pound at 9.3697 [2] Summary by Category - **Exchange Rate Changes** - The yuan's exchange rate against the US dollar has decreased by 10 basis points to 7.0789 [1] - **Currency Exchange Rates** - 1 USD = 7.0789 CNY - 1 EUR = 8.2078 CNY - 100 JPY = 4.5293 CNY - 1 HKD = 0.90990 CNY - 1 GBP = 9.3697 CNY - 1 AUD = 4.6243 CNY - 1 NZD = 4.0533 CNY - 1 SGD = 5.4589 CNY - 1 CHF = 8.7971 CNY - 1 CAD = 5.0460 CNY - 1 MYR = 0.58344 CNY - 1 RUB = 11.0135 CNY - 1 ZAR = 2.4235 CNY - 1 KRW = 206.78 CNY - 1 AED = 0.51897 CNY - 1 SAR = 0.53008 CNY - 1 HUF = 46.4631 CNY - 1 PLN = 0.51500 CNY - 1 DKK = 0.9099 CNY - 1 SEK = 1.3385 CNY - 1 NOK = 1.4356 CNY - 1 TRY = 6.00333 CNY - 1 MXN = 2.5918 CNY - 1 THB = 4.5526 CNY [2]

Core Points - The central bank of China announced that the middle exchange rate of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is set at 7.0789 RMB per USD, reflecting a decrease of 10 basis points [1] Group 1 - The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to publish the exchange rate [1] - The exchange rate adjustment indicates ongoing fluctuations in the foreign exchange market [1]