类别 宏观市场月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 9 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 美联储降息利多环球股市 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 近期研究报告 《宏观专题-20250918-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析（三）》 《宏观专题-20250821-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(二)》 《宏观专题-20250815-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(一)》 《宏观专题-20250724-从 CIP 指数 观察中国制造业的国际竞争力》 宏观专题-20250306-特朗普 2.0 新 政阶段性回顾：回归保守价值观、 回归丛林法则》 ...

反假货币宣传月活动期间，通过统筹各部门资源，在政务、交通、商贸、航空和县域农村等关键领 域实施精准宣传，全省累计开展线下主题宣传活动超650场，同时借助线上渠道同步推送各类宣传文 章，并开展网络答题，有效扩大了宣传覆盖面，线上线下覆盖群众超66万人次，形成全社会反假货币的 浓厚氛围。 活动打破部门壁垒，建立"多部门协同联动、全场景深度渗透"工作体系，构建"行业+"立体宣传格 局，进一步夯实陕西金融生态安全基础，将金融安全防线延伸至社会经济的各个层面。 9月30日，记者从中国人民银行陕西省分行获悉：该行近期联合省委宣传部、省委网信办、省公安 厅、省交通运输厅、省商务厅、省市场监管局等部门，以"筑牢货币安全网 守好群众钱袋子"为主题， 开展反假货币宣传月活动。 人行陕西省分行相关负责人表示，"行业+"场景化渗透是此次宣传的主要亮点，各联合部门分工协 作，构建起全方位、无死角宣传网络。此外，人行陕西省各市分行结合地域特色与资源优势，积极打造 个性化宣传亮点。延安市分行创新"非遗+反假"模式，携手民间艺人创作《圣地反假护钱袋》陕北说书 曲目，用"乡音土话"，让反假知识"声"入人心。榆林市分行组织28家银行联合公安、市 ...

香港证监会与香港金管局9月25日联合发布香港的《固定收益及货币市场发展路线图》，通过促进需 求、流动性及创新，策略性定位香港成为全球固定收益及货币中心。《路线图》围绕四大支柱提出关键 措施，包括一级市场发行、二级市场流动性、离岸人民币业务及新一代基建。《路线图》提出十项倡 议，旨在巩固香港的现有优势，包括进一步吸引发行人以香港作为集资枢纽，并为发行人及投资者提供 风险管理及流动性管理工具；同时，《路线图》强调开拓新局面，包括提升离岸人民币的使用规模和流 动性，以及发展新一代金融基建以赋能市场创新。 ...

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]

Report Information - Report Title: "Large Class Asset Morning Report" - Report Date: September 17, 2025 - Author: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, etc. were 4.029, 4.638, 3.488 respectively. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.010, and the yearly change was 0.319 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, etc. were 3.560, 3.960, 2.000 respectively. There were also different changes in different time - spans [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - Exchange Rates and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.297, and there were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For instance, the latest change was -0.37%, and the yearly change was -5.40% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - Index Values and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6606.760, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 45757.900, etc. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the S&P 500 was -0.13%, and the yearly change was 22.16% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Index Changes: The latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes of credit bond indices such as the US investment - grade credit bond index, the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were presented. For example, the latest change in the US investment - grade credit bond index was 0.04%, and the yearly change was 4.72% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices and Changes: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3861.87, 4523.34, 2947.82 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4]. Valuation - PE Ratios and Changes: The PE (TTM) ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, and others were 14.09, 11.80, 34.32 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Risk Premium - Risk Premium and Changes: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and German DAX were -0.39 and 2.50 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Fund Flows - Fund Flow Values: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -305.93 [4]. Trading Volumes - Trading Volumes and Changes: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 23414.02, 6137.28, etc., with环比 changes [4]. Main Contract Basis and Premium/Discount - Basis and Premium/Discount: The basis and percentage of premium/discount of IF, IH, IC were given. For example, the basis of IF was -6.54, and the percentage was -0.14% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - Closing Prices and Percentage Changes: The closing prices of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.000, 105.795, 107.680, 105.680 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. Fund Interest Rates - Interest Rates and Daily Changes: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M interest rates were 1.4778%, 1.4998%, 1.5530% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [5]

Global Asset Market Performance - On September 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies showed various changes. For example, the US was 4.039% with a latest change of - 0.028%, a one - week change of - 0.002%, a one - month change of - 0.295%, and a one - year change of 0.311%. Other countries like the UK, France, etc. also had their own yield data and changes [3]. - The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies were reported. For instance, the US was 3.520% on September 15, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.020%, a one - week change of - 0.070%, a one - month change of - 0.100%, and a one - year change of - 0.360% [3]. - The US dollar exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies had different changes. For example, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.317 on September 15, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.70%, a one - week change of - 1.89%, a one - month change of - 2.20%, and a one - year change of - 4.60% [3]. - The performance of major economies' stock indices was presented. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 6615.280 on September 15, 2025, with a latest change of 0.47%, a one - week change of 1.85%, a one - month change of 2.58%, and a one - year change of 20.20% [3]. - Credit bond indices of different regions and levels had their own changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.24%, a one - week change of 0.46%, a one - month change of 2.37%, and a one - year change of 4.76% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and price changes of A - share indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were reported. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.50 with a change of - 0.26% [5]. - Valuation data including PE (TTM) and their环比变化 of indices like CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were provided. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 14.13 with a环比变化 of 0.00 [5]. - Risk premium data and their环比变化 of some indices were given. For example, the risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 was - 0.41 with a环比变化 of 0.01 [5]. - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in different segments of the A - share market were reported. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1180.37, and the 5 - day average was - 554.63 [5]. - The latest values and环比变化 of trading volumes in different segments of the A - share market were reported. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22773.85 with a环比变化 of - 2435.40 [5]. - The basis and basis percentage of index futures such as IF, IH, and IC were reported. For example, the basis of IF was - 5.26 with a basis percentage of - 0.12% [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and price changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were reported. All of them had a change of 0.00% on September 15, 2025 [6]. - The money market rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (BP) were reported. For example, R001 was 1.4474% with a daily change of - 2.00 BP [6].

TORIO ORIGIN EVOLUTION OF MONEY Stelano Battilosoi Younel Cauis Karabika Yago 【的】【行】·巴尼斯网 【司无名人 · KAN 105关于和社 ther 187 得到 日 出版 吸 HANDLOOK of In HISTORY MONEY ... CURRINCY 主流观点认为，货币就是等价物，在货币诞生之前，以物易物已存在了相当长的一段时间。这种观点的 基础是，当原始社会发展到晚期，随着结余和剩余商品的出现，不同部落和地区的人们为了交换农作物 和手工艺品，选择了某些特殊物品作为定价物，为交换物品确定价值，完成交换。按照这个观点，货币 并非天然是金银，但金银天然是货币，因为其具有易于衡量、便于支付、不会变质的优点。 这种观点还进一步提出，市场经济、货币都是社会、经济自然发展的产物，不需要管理当局干预，市场 自行就会培育类似于货币这样的等价物。即使在已有黄金或白银储备的情况下，纸币的出现同样也是市 场的自发行为。本书作者指出，西方银行业以及其他金融领域的参与者，普遍认为货币和市场不需要政 府干预，即使政府存在，也应该限制其经济权力，而不 ...

俄罗斯莫斯科交易所数据显示，8月交易量达143.5万亿卢布。其中，股票、DR和投资基金单位的交易量为3万亿卢布。 【导读】莫斯科证券交易所暂停股票市场交易 值得注意的是，去年莫斯科证券交易所曾数次因技术问题暂停交易。 2024年8月14日，莫斯科交易所发表声明称，8月14日，莫斯科交易所股票市场因发现软件错误，决定自莫斯科时间16时 18分起暂时停止交易。 随后，莫斯科交易所发表声明称，由于软件错误，大多数访问服务器无法连接交易参与者。软件错误包括各个访问服务 器上的内存处理不正确。股市将于14日17时30分恢复交易，系统已做好撤单和连接参与者的准备。 9月13日，莫斯科证券交易所发布公告称，股票市场于当地时间9月13日10时12分暂停交易，恢复时间将在适当时候宣 布。目前，莫斯科证券交易所未说明暂停交易的原因。 随后，莫斯科证券交易所再度发布公告称，交易将于莫斯科时间11时40分恢复。目前，莫斯科证券交易所未说明暂停交 今年以来，莫斯科证券交易所曾多次暂停衍生品市场交易。 当地时间9月11日，莫斯科证券交易所发布公告称，衍生品市场的交易已于2025年9月11日15时23分暂停。恢复交易的时 间将在适当时候公 ...

【导读】莫斯科证券交易所暂停股票市场交易 9月13日，莫斯科证券交易所发布公告称，股票市场于当地时间9月13日10时12分暂停交易，恢复时间将在适当时候宣 布。目前，莫斯科证券交易所未说明暂停交易的原因。 随后，莫斯科证券交易所再度发布公告称，交易将于莫斯科时间11时40分恢复。目前，莫斯科证券交易所未说明暂停交 易的原因。 今年以来，莫斯科证券交易所曾多次暂停衍生品市场交易。 当地时间9月11日，莫斯科证券交易所发布公告称，衍生品市场的交易已于2025年9月11日15时23分暂停。恢复交易的时 间将在适当时候公布。随后于2025年9月11日15时55分，衍生品市场恢复交易时间，交易系统自15时40分起可用于订单提 取。今年4月份，莫斯科证券交易所也曾短时间暂停衍生品市场交易。 值得注意的是，去年莫斯科证券交易所曾数次因技术问题暂停交易。 随后，莫斯科交易所发表声明称，由于软件错误，大多数访问服务器无法连接交易参与者。软件错误包括各个访问服务 器上的内存处理不正确。股市将于14日17时30分恢复交易，系统已做好撤单和连接参与者的准备。 俄罗斯莫斯科交易所数据显示，8月交易量达143.5万亿卢布。其中，股票、D ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight interest rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [4][54] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's leadership in the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system is mostly framed. The Sino - US trade deadlock may continue, the Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process, and China may shift its focus from stabilizing growth to adjusting the economic structure. The macro - environment is relatively favorable for risk assets such as stocks and industrial commodities, slightly favorable for precious metals, and unfavorable for government bonds. However, the A - share market has internal adjustment risks, and bonds may have periodic opportunities [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 January - August Macro - market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" boom made the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks rise, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened as Trump's reforms caused risks in the US, and overseas assets became more attractive. In early April, Trump's high - tariff announcement triggered a global financial tsunami, followed by a 90 - day suspension. In May, China increased counter - cyclical adjustments, and the global risk appetite gradually recovered from late April to June. Since July, global risk assets have continued to rise, and safe - haven assets have been suppressed [4][6] 3.2 Macro - environment Review 3.2.1 China's External Demand Shows Resilience but Domestic Demand Weakens Across the Board - In July, China's domestic demand weakened due to the diminishing effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus and international trade frictions. However, external demand remained resilient. Investment growth slowed down in multiple sectors, consumption growth declined, industrial output growth weakened, the real - estate market showed mixed signals with high inventory, prices continued to fall, CPI was stable with some fluctuations, PPI continued to decline, new social financing increased, and exports grew due to multiple factors [7][10][19] 3.2.2 New Policies Impact the US Economy into Stagflation - Trump's radical reforms have disrupted the US economic and social order. In July, US employment data deteriorated significantly, the labor participation rate decreased, the unemployment rate increased, inflation showed a complex situation with core CPI rising and some commodity inflation pressures easing, and consumer confidence was affected by trade policies [21][23][26] 3.2.3 China Increases Counter - cyclical Support Policies - In August, China adjusted real - estate policies in core cities, introduced personal and service - sector consumption loan subsidy policies. From January to July, China's fiscal stimulus was strong, but it also led to a rapid increase in the debt - leverage ratio [27][29][34] 3.2.4 The Fed Hints at Restarting the Interest - rate Cut Process - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson - Hole meeting hinted at a possible interest - rate cut in September. The market has high expectations for rate cuts this year. Trump is trying to increase his influence on the Fed. In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut pace may slow down based on economic fundamentals, but Trump's influence may accelerate it [35][36][37] 3.3 Asset Market Analysis - China's Treasury bond yields are expected to be weak in the second half of 2025, with a core range of 1.5 - 2% for the 10 - year bond. US Treasury bond yields are likely to remain high and fluctuate, with a core range of 4 - 5% for the 10 - year bond. The US dollar index is expected to decline first and then rise, with a core range of 95 - 105. The RMB exchange - rate index may be under pressure, and the RMB against the US dollar may depreciate. Global stock markets have risen this year, but the A - share market has internal adjustment risks. Commodities are likely to maintain a high - level and wide - range oscillation [42][46][51] 3.4 Medium - term Asset Allocation - From January to August 2025, Chinese stocks, currency, commodities, and bonds had different growth rates. The international trade and monetary system restructuring and domestic liquidity environment have affected asset prices. Based on the current situation, it is recommended to over - allocate interest - rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [52][53][54]