Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Research Team: Macroeconomic Team of the Research Center - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On November 13, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.120%, 4.437%, 3.415% respectively. There were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was 0.050, and the one - year change was - 0.153 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On November 13, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the UK, Germany, Japan, etc. were 3.760%, 2.026%, 0.927% respectively. There were also different changes in different time periods. For instance, the latest change in the UK was 0.037, and the one - year change was - 0.746 [3]. US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On November 13, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.299, 17.043 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 0.13%, and the one - year change was - 7.78% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On November 13, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6737.490, 47457.220, 22870.360 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change of the S&P 500 was - 1.66%, and the one - year change was 16.51% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - There were different performance changes in different time periods for US investment - grade credit bonds, euro - zone investment - grade credit bonds, etc. For example, the latest change of US investment - grade credit bonds was - 0.37%, and the one - year change was 5.99% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 4029.50, 4702.07 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 14.41, 12.13 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.55, with a环比 change of 0.01; the risk premium of German DAX was 2.66, with a环比 change of 0.27 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc. were 496.42, 272.41 respectively, and there were corresponding 5 - day average values [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 20419.62, 5100.61 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 25.07, - 4.87, - 86.29 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 108.410, 105.885 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes. The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3887%, 1.5005%, 1.5800% respectively, with corresponding daily changes in basis points [6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is advancing the construction of a modern financial market system with Chinese characteristics during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on market-oriented, legal, and international reforms [2][3] Financial Market Development - A multi-layered financial market system is increasingly complete, with the bond market becoming a fully functional, open, and vibrant market. The money market supports macroeconomic regulation and policy transmission effectively [3] - The depth, resilience, and liquidity of financial markets have improved, with bond market transactions reaching 161.18 trillion yuan, a 102.7% increase from the previous five-year period [3] - Financial infrastructure construction is being advanced, with a regulatory framework for financial infrastructure being established to enhance daily supervision and promote market element mobility [4] Support for the Real Economy - The PBOC is committed to serving the real economy, with bond market financing scale expanding steadily. As of August 2025, the bond market custody balance reached 192 trillion yuan, a 64.2% increase since the end of 2020 [5][6] - The issuance of green bonds has remained above 600 billion yuan annually, positioning China among the top three globally [5] - Government bond issuance has also seen rapid growth, with a total of 50.1 trillion yuan in national bonds issued during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a significant increase from the previous period [6] Regulatory and Institutional Enhancements - The PBOC is enhancing market rules and regulatory coordination, focusing on unifying basic institutional rules for corporate bonds to improve market transparency [7][8] - A macro-prudential management framework covering various financial sub-markets is being established to maintain market stability and safety [8] Internationalization and Openness - The PBOC is promoting high-level openness in financial markets, enhancing connectivity with global financial markets through mechanisms like Bond Connect and Swap Connect [9][10] - As of August 2025, nearly 1,170 foreign investors from around 80 countries have entered the Chinese bond market, with total holdings reaching approximately 3.9 trillion yuan, a nearly fourfold increase since the launch of Bond Connect [9] - The PBOC is also working to align domestic financial market rules with international standards to enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese bonds [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight gold and blue - chip stocks, moderately allocate interest - rate bonds and growth stocks, and underweight credit bonds, crude oil, and currency [5][60] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From mid - January to March 2025, due to Trump's aggressive reforms, the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds chased overseas assets. In early April, Trump's high - tariff measures triggered a global financial tsunami. After that, the Fed's rate - cut process benefits global stocks and precious metals, while the bond yields of various countries are suppressed. The commodity market remains stable overall but shows significant differentiation. Looking forward, the macro - environment is still relatively favorable for precious metals and stocks, slightly favorable for industrial commodities, but unfavorable for bonds. It is recommended to increase bond allocation while being bullish on stocks [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 1 - 9 Months Macro - market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" made the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks rise, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds flowed overseas. In early April, Trump's tariff measures caused a global financial shock. After that, the international trade situation eased, and the Fed's rate - cut benefited global stocks and precious metals. The commodity market was stable with differentiation [7] 3.2 Macro - environment Review 3.2.1 China's Domestic Demand Continues to Weaken - In August 2025, China's domestic demand weakened due to the diminishing effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus and international trade disputes. The full - year economic growth target of about 5% is expected to be achieved. In terms of investment, from January to August, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, especially in real estate. Consumption growth also declined. Industrial output growth slowed, and there was a large deflationary pressure. The real - estate market showed supply - demand deterioration and price decline, but the overall situation was slightly better than in Q3 2024. Inflation showed a decline in overall CPI and a narrowing of PPI decline. Exports were affected by the US and other factors, but still showed resilience. Fiscal expenditure showed a marginal weakening, and financial data showed that new social financing was mainly supported by fiscal means. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and new policy - based financial tools were launched [8][10][15] 3.2.2 US Economic Recovery but Weak Employment - In the first half of 2025, the US economy fluctuated due to Trump's reforms. In the second half, the growth momentum recovered. Employment data showed a shortage of new non - farm jobs, a low growth rate of salaries, and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, but no recession risk. Inflation showed a stable recovery, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed different trends [27][29][33] 3.2.3 The Fed Restarts the Rate - cut Process - On September 16 - 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP. The decision was due to the weakening of US economic growth momentum, the slowdown of employment growth, and the balance between employment and inflation risks. The Fed's economic outlook is more optimistic, and it is expected to cut interest rates two more times in 2025 and less frequently in 2026 and 2027. The Fed's rate - cut is a risk - management measure, and the second - stage rate - cut process will be step - by - step [37][40][45] 3.3 Asset Market Analysis - China's Treasury yields showed a downward - rebound - downward - rebound trend. It is expected to run weakly in the second half of 2025. US Treasury yields were high - fluctuating, and it is predicted to continue high - running. The US dollar index is expected to be weak first and then strong. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be volatile and slightly strong. Global stock indices have risen, and the A - share market is expected to be strong, but the contradiction between high risk - appetite and weak corporate profits is increasing. The commodity market is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock [47][49][54] 3.4 Medium - term Asset Allocation - From January to September 2025, stocks rose, bonds fell, and commodities were under pressure. The international trade situation and domestic policies affected asset performance. It is recommended to underweight currency, moderately allocate interest - rate bonds, underweight credit bonds, overweight blue - chip stocks, moderately allocate growth stocks, underweight crude oil, and overweight gold [58][60]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China Shaanxi Branch, in collaboration with various provincial departments, launched a "Counterfeit Currency Awareness Month" campaign aimed at enhancing financial security and protecting citizens' finances [1][2] - The campaign features a multi-departmental collaborative approach, establishing a comprehensive promotional network that penetrates various sectors of society [2] Group 1 - The campaign conducted over 650 offline promotional activities across key areas such as government, transportation, commerce, aviation, and rural regions, reaching over 660,000 people through both online and offline channels [1] - The "Industry+" scenario-based penetration is highlighted as a key feature of the campaign, with departments working together to create a thorough and seamless promotional network [2] Group 2 - Local branches of the People's Bank of China are tailoring their promotional efforts to regional characteristics, such as the "Intangible Cultural Heritage + Counterfeit Prevention" model in Yan'an, which uses local storytelling to convey anti-counterfeiting knowledge [2] - Various promotional strategies include joint efforts by banks and law enforcement in key locations like airports and markets, as well as utilizing significant events to enhance outreach [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority jointly released the "Roadmap for the Development of Fixed Income and Money Markets" on September 25, aiming to strategically position Hong Kong as a global hub for fixed income markets through enhanced demand, liquidity, and innovation [1] Group 1: Key Measures - The roadmap outlines four main pillars: primary market issuance, secondary market liquidity, offshore RMB business, and next-generation infrastructure [1] - Ten initiatives are proposed to consolidate Hong Kong's existing advantages, including attracting issuers to use Hong Kong as a fundraising hub and providing risk management and liquidity management tools for issuers and investors [1] Group 2: New Developments - The roadmap emphasizes exploring new opportunities, such as increasing the scale and liquidity of offshore RMB usage and developing next-generation financial infrastructure to empower market innovation [1]

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]

Report Information - Report Title: "Large Class Asset Morning Report" - Report Date: September 17, 2025 - Author: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, etc. were 4.029, 4.638, 3.488 respectively. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.010, and the yearly change was 0.319 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, etc. were 3.560, 3.960, 2.000 respectively. There were also different changes in different time - spans [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - Exchange Rates and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.297, and there were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For instance, the latest change was -0.37%, and the yearly change was -5.40% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - Index Values and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6606.760, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 45757.900, etc. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the S&P 500 was -0.13%, and the yearly change was 22.16% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Index Changes: The latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes of credit bond indices such as the US investment - grade credit bond index, the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were presented. For example, the latest change in the US investment - grade credit bond index was 0.04%, and the yearly change was 4.72% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices and Changes: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3861.87, 4523.34, 2947.82 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4]. Valuation - PE Ratios and Changes: The PE (TTM) ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, and others were 14.09, 11.80, 34.32 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Risk Premium - Risk Premium and Changes: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and German DAX were -0.39 and 2.50 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Fund Flows - Fund Flow Values: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -305.93 [4]. Trading Volumes - Trading Volumes and Changes: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 23414.02, 6137.28, etc., with环比 changes [4]. Main Contract Basis and Premium/Discount - Basis and Premium/Discount: The basis and percentage of premium/discount of IF, IH, IC were given. For example, the basis of IF was -6.54, and the percentage was -0.14% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - Closing Prices and Percentage Changes: The closing prices of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.000, 105.795, 107.680, 105.680 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. Fund Interest Rates - Interest Rates and Daily Changes: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M interest rates were 1.4778%, 1.4998%, 1.5530% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [5]

Global Asset Market Performance - On September 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies showed various changes. For example, the US was 4.039% with a latest change of - 0.028%, a one - week change of - 0.002%, a one - month change of - 0.295%, and a one - year change of 0.311%. Other countries like the UK, France, etc. also had their own yield data and changes [3]. - The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies were reported. For instance, the US was 3.520% on September 15, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.020%, a one - week change of - 0.070%, a one - month change of - 0.100%, and a one - year change of - 0.360% [3]. - The US dollar exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies had different changes. For example, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.317 on September 15, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.70%, a one - week change of - 1.89%, a one - month change of - 2.20%, and a one - year change of - 4.60% [3]. - The performance of major economies' stock indices was presented. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 6615.280 on September 15, 2025, with a latest change of 0.47%, a one - week change of 1.85%, a one - month change of 2.58%, and a one - year change of 20.20% [3]. - Credit bond indices of different regions and levels had their own changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.24%, a one - week change of 0.46%, a one - month change of 2.37%, and a one - year change of 4.76% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and price changes of A - share indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were reported. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.50 with a change of - 0.26% [5]. - Valuation data including PE (TTM) and their环比变化 of indices like CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were provided. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 14.13 with a环比变化 of 0.00 [5]. - Risk premium data and their环比变化 of some indices were given. For example, the risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 was - 0.41 with a环比变化 of 0.01 [5]. - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in different segments of the A - share market were reported. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1180.37, and the 5 - day average was - 554.63 [5]. - The latest values and环比变化 of trading volumes in different segments of the A - share market were reported. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22773.85 with a环比变化 of - 2435.40 [5]. - The basis and basis percentage of index futures such as IF, IH, and IC were reported. For example, the basis of IF was - 5.26 with a basis percentage of - 0.12% [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and price changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were reported. All of them had a change of 0.00% on September 15, 2025 [6]. - The money market rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (BP) were reported. For example, R001 was 1.4474% with a daily change of - 2.00 BP [6].

Core Viewpoint - The book "The Origin and Evolution of Money" challenges the mainstream view that money naturally evolved from barter systems, proposing instead that money's origins are deeply intertwined with social structures, political power, and cultural development [3][8]. Group 1: Traditional Views on Money - The mainstream perspective posits that money is an equivalent medium that emerged from barter systems, where specific items were chosen for trade to establish value [4]. - This view suggests that money is not inherently gold or silver, but these metals became preferred due to their measurable and durable properties [4]. - Proponents of this theory argue that market economies and money are products of natural social and economic development, requiring no intervention from governing authorities [4]. Group 2: Historical Evidence and Critique - Historical records, such as those from Mesopotamia, indicate that early monetary activities were primarily for tax payments and purchases, regulated by large institutions like temples [5]. - The emergence of accounting practices around 3000 BC in Sumer is linked to the need for managing payments and resources in large construction projects, suggesting a structured approach to economic transactions [6]. - The book argues that the theory of barter as a precursor to money overlooks the essential role of public authority and oversight in early economic systems [7]. Group 3: Alternative Theories on Money's Origin - The authors assert that the myth of money's origin is a result of conflicts between vested interests and reformers regarding control over monetary and credit systems [8]. - They propose that money originated from debt repayment, initially used for fines and compensations, evolving into a medium for trade only later [8]. - The book emphasizes that the understanding of money's nature and origins is crucial for addressing the roles of government and banks in monetary issuance and regulation [8].

Core Points - The Moscow Exchange suspended trading on September 13 at 10:12 AM local time, with no reason provided for the suspension [1] - Trading resumed at 11:40 AM local time on the same day, again without an explanation for the earlier pause [1] - The exchange has experienced multiple trading suspensions in the derivatives market throughout the year, including a notable suspension on September 11 [2] - In 2024, the exchange faced trading interruptions due to software errors, with a significant incident occurring on August 14 [3] Trading Volume and Market Overview - In August, the Moscow Exchange reported a trading volume of 143.5 trillion rubles, with 3 trillion rubles attributed to stocks, DRs, and investment funds [4] - The Moscow Exchange operates as the primary trading platform for stocks, bonds, derivatives, currencies, money market instruments, and commodities in Russia [4] - The exchange went public on February 15, 2013, under the stock code MOEX [4]