美国经济在第一季度可能出现停滞甚至萎缩，原因是企业为了避免更高的成本而被大量进口商品淹没， 这凸显了美国总统特朗普常常混乱的关税政策带来的破坏性。 然而，商务部周三公布的GDP先行报告可能会严重夸大经济前景的黯淡，它可能将强化美国人迄今为 止对其经济处理方式日益增长的不满。特朗普去年11月凭借选民对经济特别是通胀的焦虑赢得大选。 目前，美国消费者信心接近五年低点，商业信心暴跌，而航空公司已撤回其2025年财务预测，理由是关 税导致非必要旅行支出存在不确定性，经济学家警告称这将提高企业和家庭成本。 RSM US首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas表示："贸易冲击现在影响巨大，盖过了白宫试图完成的其他一切努 力，在不到100天的时间里，我们从贸易冲击走向金融冲击，甚至可能衰退，这应该让那些想继续走这 条关税之路的人停下脚步反思。" 市场普遍预测，美国一季度GDP年化增长率可能为0.3%，这是自2022年第二季度以来的最慢增速。但 周二数据显示美国3月商品贸易逆差在创纪录的进口量下飙升至历史新高，促使经济学家大幅下调了他 们的GDP预估。 经济学家预计美联储将在今年某个时候恢复降息。 特朗普周二通过一项行政命令， ...

智通财经4月30日电，德国第一季度未季调GDP同比下降0.4%，预期下降0.4%。 ...

法国一季度GDP同比初值 0.8%，预期 0.7%，前值 0.6%。 ...

在特朗普关税威胁引发的恐慌性抢购浪潮下，美国贸易逆差飙升至历史新高，导致华尔街主要银行纷纷 下调一季度GDP预期至负值。 周二公布的数据显示，3月美国商品贸易逆差飙升至1620亿美元，远超2024年3月的928亿美元，创下自 上世纪90年代初有记录以来的最高水平。这一数字超出了彭博社对经济学家的所有预测值，表明贸易对 第一季度经济增长造成了巨大拖累。 面对这一爆炸性数据，华尔街投行纷纷下调对美国经济的预测。根据金融时报报道，摩根士丹利将第一 季度GDP预期从零增长大幅下调至同比下滑1.4%，他们直言："关税前的进口激增规模超出预期，而库 存并未抵消这一影响。" 同样，高盛将预期从-0.2%下调至-0.8%，摩根大通则将预期从零调整至-1.75%。 企业抢跑进口，数据严重扭曲 这一惊人的贸易逆差几乎完全归因于进口的暴涨。数据显示，3月份美国进口额增长5%，达到3427亿美 元，比去年同期大幅增长31%。其中，消费品进口激增27.5%，汽车和资本货物进口也有明显增加。 这种进口狂潮背后是企业在关税实施前的恐慌性囤货。Pantheon Macroeconomics高级美国经济学家 Oliver Allen表示："2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国商品贸易逆差在3月份出人意料地扩大至历史新高，因企业继续抢在关税生效 前进口商品，这预示美国第一季度经济产出数据可能将受到重大拖累，单月进口规模激增可能是美国企 业在关税生效前确保商品和材料供应的最后一搏。最近的预测数据显示美国经济疲软之势难以避免，许 多经济学家大幅下调了美国2025年GDP增速预期，一些经济学家甚至预测美国经济在2025年将陷入衰退 境地。 美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，3月份美国商品贸易赤字环比意外增长9.6%，达到1620亿美元。由于 进口在美国国内生产总值(GDP)核算中被计为负项，这一数据暗示美国政府将于美东时间周三公布的一 季度GDP初值将比经济学家们此前的普遍预期更为疲弱甚至有可能陷入负增长，并且已经促使多位经济 学家在创纪录的逆差数据公布后下调第一季度美国GDP以及2025年美国GDP预估。 当天公布的另一份报告显示，特朗普政府的关税政策同样令美国企业与普通家庭对经济前景和财务状况 的看法大幅恶化。美国谘商会(Conference Board)公布的统计数据显示，4月美国消费者们对未来六个月 的预期指数降至2011年以来最低水平。 美国商品贸易逆差扩大 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. trade deficit increased to $162 billion in March from $147.8 billion the previous month, significantly exceeding the estimate of -$145 billion, marking a 65% increase since October [10] - Imports rose by 5.0% to $343 billion, driven by a 27.5% increase in consumer goods, while exports increased by 1.2% to $181 billion, led by industrial supplies, autos, and food [10] - The decline in consumer confidence continued, with the Conference Board's measure dropping to 86 in April from 93.9, marking the fifth consecutive month of declines [11] Company Responses to Tariffs - Amazon faced backlash from the White House for allegedly planning to list tariff costs on products, which it denied, stating that such a consideration was never made for its main site [4][8] - Honeywell reported earnings that exceeded expectations and raised its full-year profit forecast, while acknowledging the unpredictable impact of tariffs [13] - Coca-Cola's performance reassured analysts, contrasting with many peers in the consumer staples sector [14] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Pantheon Macro economist Oliver Allen revised Q1 GDP growth expectations down to -1% due to the impact of tariffs and trade dynamics [10] - Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi indicated that consumer sentiment is nearing recession levels, with a significant drop in the index over the past three months [12] - Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson emphasized the need for tariff relief and other catalysts for sustained market growth, advocating for quality stocks with resilient earnings profiles [18] Notable Partnerships and Developments - Hims & Hers Health announced a partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell the weight loss therapy Wegovy, marking a significant development for the company amid shareholder scrutiny [17] - JetBlue is evaluating measures to boost profitability in light of macroeconomic uncertainty, including capacity reductions and cost savings [16] Earnings Guidance Adjustments - General Motors pulled its 2025 outlook and halted its share buyback program due to the impact of tariffs on its original guidance [14][15] - UPS management indicated that full-year expectations would remain if market conditions stabilize, highlighting the uncertainty stemming from recent updates from the White House and Beijing [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant pullback in new export orders in countries affected by tariffs, particularly Canada and Mexico, with a historical correlation indicating that a 1-point decline in the S&P new manufacturing export orders PMI component predicts a 0.75 percentage point hit to year-on-year export growth [2]. - The April flash PMIs indicate mixed trends in developed markets (DM), with the DM composite flash PMI falling by 1.1 points to 50.7, driven by a decline in the services component [2]. - The report notes that the Euro area composite flash PMI declined to 50.1 in April, slightly below consensus expectations, with services leading the decline [4]. Summary by Sections Global Trade Data - The report compiles a data calendar for upcoming global business surveys and trade data releases, emphasizing the importance of country-specific export data as indicators of how tariffs are reshaping global trade [2]. - Early releases of trade data have shown a correlation with US trade flows, with expectations of a pullback due to tariff implementation [2]. US Economics - The report indicates a growth slowdown, with a lowered Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6 percentage points to -0.2%, influenced by mixed signals from housing and durable goods orders [3]. - It discusses the potential impact of Canadian elections on GDP growth, with increased spending under a Liberal government expected to raise GDP levels by 0.6-0.7% over the next four years [3]. European Economics - The report notes that long-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey remained at 4.4%, with consumer sentiment significantly below earlier levels [4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25 basis point cut and signaled concerns about growth, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months [4]. Asia/EM Economics - The report assesses the disinflationary impact of tariff-induced global supply reallocation, estimating a potential downside of 1.5% to the price level of core goods [5]. - It highlights the expected impact of US tariffs on Chinese exports and anticipates a focus on easing measures from Chinese leadership in response to economic pressures [5]. GDP Forecast Tracker - The report provides GDP growth forecasts for various regions, with the US expected to grow at 1.2% in 2025, while the Euro area is projected at 0.7% [6]. - China’s growth is forecasted at 4.0% for 2025, reflecting a slowdown compared to previous years [6].

2025 年 4 月 28 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-04-28 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 4月29日 欧元区4月经济景气指数 点评：4月29日17:00，欧盟统计局将公布欧元区4月经济景气指数和工业景气指数。预期欧元区4月经济景 气指数为94.5，前值为95.2；预期欧元区4月工业景气指数为-10.7，前值为-10.6。如果欧元区4月经济景气指 数和工业景气指数均小幅低于前值，则将轻度抑制有色金属、原油及相关商品期货价格上涨，但是将轻度有助 于黄金和白银期货价格上涨。 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 4 月 29 日 22:00，美国谘商会将公布 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数。 4 月 30 日 09:30，国家统计 ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter, Zhuhai's GDP reached 112.09 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a stable economic start [1] - The primary industry added value was 1.64 billion, growing by 4.0%, while the secondary industry decreased by 0.6% to 44.94 billion, and the tertiary industry increased by 7.1% to 65.51 billion, becoming the main driver of economic growth [1] Tertiary Industry Performance - The tertiary industry's growth of 7.1% was primarily driven by significant increases in information transmission, software, and IT services (21.6%), cultural, sports, and entertainment (8.3%), and leasing and business services (7.9%) [1] - From January to February, the revenue of large-scale service industries reached 27.07 billion, up by 10.4%, with internet and related services, software and IT services, cultural, sports, and entertainment, and leasing and business services showing revenue growth of 114.5%, 32.2%, 12.3%, and 9.5% respectively [1] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Zhuhai for the first quarter reached 23.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [2] - Retail sales of household appliances surged by 84.7%, while automotive consumption showed weakness, with retail sales of automotive goods declining by 3.5% to 2.694 billion, accounting for 22.9% of total retail sales [2] Foreign Trade - Zhuhai's foreign trade performance was notable, with total import and export reaching 81.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, driven by a 26.5% increase in imports and an 11.2% increase in exports [2] - The number of foreign trade enterprises exceeded 3,000, marking an 8.8% increase, with significant growth in trade with the EU (21.8%), ASEAN (6.1%), and the Middle East (39.4%) [2] - Exports of electromechanical products reached 37.48 billion, growing by 13.1%, accounting for 68.6% of total exports, with notable increases in home appliances (6.4%), electronic components (18.1%), computers and parts (70.1%), and lithium batteries (122.3%) [2] Primary Industry Insights - The primary industry added value grew by 4.0%, reflecting accelerated agricultural modernization and significant achievements in marine ranching [3] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 5.1%, with fishery output accounting for nearly 80% [3] Secondary Industry Analysis - The secondary industry saw a 0.6% decline in added value, although high-tech sectors experienced growth, with industrial added value increasing by 4.8% [3] - Key sectors showed varied performance: precision machinery manufacturing increased by 41.7%, electronic information by 10.1%, and petrochemical by 9.2%, while biomedicine and home appliance sectors faced declines of 11.4% and 2.3% respectively [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 40.5%, although the decline narrowed by 5.9 percentage points compared to January-February, with industrial technological transformation investment achieving a positive growth of 5.6% supported by equipment renewal policies [3]

到昨天（4月25日），全国31个省份的一季度经济运行情况全部发布。其中21个省份达到或超过GDP预 期增长目标，经济大省更是普遍超预期，表明今年全国经济开局良好。与上年同期相比，各省份的GDP 总量排名总体稳定，上海、辽宁、四川3省市的排位上升，河南、湖南、安徽、重庆、云南的排位下 降。（一财） ...