证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] "反内卷"下的价格分化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 1 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 打破制造业 PMI 连涨的两重因素。7 月制造业 PMI 打破了其在二季度连涨 的走势，我们认为 7 月制造业 PMI 走弱是订单回流阶段性结束、极端天 气扰动两重因素共振的结果。首先，极端天气对生产活动产生扰动。 ...

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]

Economic Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in growth [1] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a tightening in market demand [3] - The new export orders index is reported at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, further highlighting weak demand [3] - Despite the demand weakness, the production index remains at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [3] - The raw material purchase price index has risen to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in raw material prices [3] Price Trends - The ex-factory price index for manufactured goods is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [3] - The basic raw materials sector is driving the stabilization and recovery of market prices, with the purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52% [4] Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises show improvement with a PMI of 49.5%, and small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, indicating varying levels of economic health across different company sizes [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slowdown but still within the expansion range [8] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [8] - Consumer spending during the summer shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50% and 60%, respectively, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [9] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to continue steady growth [8][9] - The overall economic foundation remains solid, with expectations for continued stable expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [5]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 30 日 [Table_Title] PMI 不弱，政策不急 6 月 30 日， 统计局发布 6 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.7%，预期 49.7%，前值 49.5%。非制造业 PMI 50.5%，前值 50.3%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，二季度综合 PMI 平均值较一季度放缓。6 月综合 PMI 反弹 0.3 个百分点至 50.7%，二季度的平均值 为 50.4%，低于一季度的平均值 50.9%，也低于去年二季度的平均值 51.1%，不过要好于去年三季度的平均值 50.2%。综合 PMI 反映制造业和非制造业的生产情况环比走势，与生产法 GDP 环比存在较强的相关性。按照综 合 PMI 环比推算同比，二季度现价 GDP 同比增速可能较今年一季度出现放缓，不过二季度不变价 GDP 同比仍 可能达到 5.0%或略高的水平。 第二，订单和价格指向供需匹配情况改善。价格方面，制造业、建筑业和服务业价格分项分别反弹 1.5、 0.8 和 1.6 个百分点，制造业原材料购进价也反弹 1.5 个百分点，不过四者介于 46-49%区间，仍 ...

食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经营活动预期指数均位于58.0%及以上 较高景气区间。 张立群表示，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观经济政策，特别要显著加大政府公共产品投资力度，显著 扩大市场需求，增加企业订单；带动企业生产投资活跃，就业形势改善，居民收入增长加快。依靠政府 公共产品、公共服务投资力度显著加大，使企业投资和居民消费显著回暖，带动超大规模国内市场需求 持续回升，着力巩固增强经济回升向好的基础和动能。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青第一财经分析表示，4月制造业PMI下行背后的主要原因有两个：一是季 节性因素，每年3月都是制造业旺季，4月制造业景气度都会有季节性下行；二是外部经贸环境变化，对 美出口会有较大幅度下行，进而带动外需放缓。 从生产端来看，4月份制造业生产端较上月略有下降，生产指数为49.8%，较上月下降2.8个百分点。装 备制造业、高技术制造业、基础原材料行业和消费品制造业这四大行业以及大、中、小企业的生产指数 较上月都有一定的下降。 从需求端来看，新订单指数为49.2%，比上月下降2.6个百分点。新出口订单指数为44.7%，较上月下降 4.3个百分点。 价格方面，原材料 ...