中美关系已至不可挽回之境：一场关乎金融霸权的世纪博弈 文/胡铁瓜 近年来，每当有人向我询问中美关系是否已无法修复时，我都会斩钉截铁地给出肯定答复。这绝非危言耸听，而是基于一个铁一般的地缘政治现实——中国 的强势崛起已经实质性地威胁到美国赖以生存的金融霸权体系。这个残酷的事实，早已成为两国决策层心知肚明的战略共识。 究其根本，美国维系全球霸权的三大支柱——科技优势、军事威慑和金融霸权中，金融霸权才是其真正的命脉所在。通过美元这一世界货币，美国构建了一 个精密的\"金融永动机\"：华尔街的印钞机昼夜不停地运转，就能轻松换取中国的制造业产品、中东的黑色黄金和欧洲的奢侈品。这种躺着赚钱的模式，让 美国民众享受了近半个世纪的优渥生活。然而，中国的发展正在彻底打破这个看似完美的循环。 让我们深入剖析美国金融霸权的运作机制。第一层是基础的商品美元循环：美联储开动印钞机，新兴市场国家则用实体商品换取这些绿色纸片。但真正的杀 招还在后面——当这些美元流入各国后，华尔街的金融大鳄们便开始精心布局：他们先是推高目标国的房地产和股市，诱使当地投资者高位接盘，随后突然 抽离资金完成收割。这还不算完，美联储总会适时祭出加息大棒，导致依赖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article commemorates the 80th anniversary of China's victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the global anti-fascist war, emphasizing China's significant role in maintaining world peace and promoting common development [2][6][18]. Historical Reflection - The article highlights the historical context of China's resistance against Japanese militarism, starting from the September 18 Incident in 1931, leading to a nationwide struggle against invasion [3][4]. - It notes the immense sacrifices made by the Chinese people, with over 35 million casualties, which played a crucial role in the global anti-fascist efforts [4][5]. Justice and Responsibility - The article discusses China's commitment to peace and justice, shaped by its historical experiences of suffering and resistance against colonialism [6][7]. - It mentions China's active participation in the establishment of the United Nations and its advocacy for the rights of colonized peoples [7][8]. Development Engine - The article outlines China's economic growth, noting that its GDP has increased from 367.9 billion in 1978 to over 130 trillion by 2024, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [10][12]. - It emphasizes China's transition from a manufacturing hub to a leader in high-value manufacturing and technological innovation, reshaping global industrial dynamics [11][12]. Global Cooperation - The article describes China's Belt and Road Initiative as a platform for global cooperation, fostering development in various regions and enhancing connectivity [13][16]. - It highlights China's commitment to supporting developing countries through various initiatives, showcasing its role as a responsible global player [13][17]. Call of the Times - The article concludes with China's vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind, addressing contemporary global challenges and promoting peace, security, and sustainable development [14][16][18].

Group 1 - The forum held in Auckland, New Zealand, on September 1, was part of the China Bank's global campaign for RMB internationalization by 2025, attracting representatives from central and commercial banks across the South Pacific [1][9] - Discussions at the forum focused on the economic outlook of China, the development of the RMB bond market, and cross-border payment and settlement mechanisms [3] - The Central National Debt Registration and Settlement Company presented on the open policies of the China Interbank Bond Market (CIBM) and how foreign financial institutions can invest in RMB bond products safely and conveniently [5] Group 2 - The President of China Bank (New Zealand) emphasized the bank's commitment to enhancing the use of RMB in the South Pacific region, improving cross-border payment efficiency, and reducing transaction costs [7] - Representatives from Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, Papua New Guinea, and the Cook Islands signed memorandums of cooperation with China Bank, covering areas such as RMB clearing account establishment and cross-border payment system access [9] - The forum is a significant initiative for China Bank to implement the national "Belt and Road" strategy and financial opening, establishing a new framework for RMB in the South Pacific region focusing on "payment + investment + cooperation" [9]

Core Points - The core demand from the Chinese delegation in the latest US-China trade negotiations is the removal of the 20% punitive tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, which would reduce the total tariffs from 55% to 35% [2][4] - Even with the remaining 35% tariffs, Chinese manufactured goods would still maintain a significant cost advantage and competitiveness in the international market [2] Group 1 - The negotiations highlight a critical challenge: whether President Trump will agree to China's demand, which reflects China's firm stance in the ongoing trade conflict [4] - China's strong response to the US tariffs aligns with the public sentiment of its 1.4 billion citizens, emphasizing the importance of national dignity and resistance against unfair tariffs [6] - The necessity to protect China's vast foreign trade industry is paramount, especially for coastal enterprises that heavily rely on US orders, making it essential to negotiate the removal of the additional tariffs [8] Group 2 - The issue of "fentanyl" is framed as a result of US regulatory failures, with China arguing that it should not bear the economic consequences of US domestic issues [8][9] - Should the US refuse to remove the tariffs, China is prepared for a complete breakdown in negotiations, indicating its capability to withstand potential decoupling from the US economy [9] - The Belt and Road Initiative provides China with strategic alternatives, suggesting that the consequences of decoupling would be more detrimental to the US [9] Group 3 - Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, China's assertiveness and confidence signal that it is no longer a passive player and that the US must acknowledge China's growing strength and influence [11]

（原标题：上合组织前秘书长：多元合作为区域发展注入新动能｜全球财经连线） 南方财经记者 施诗 天津报道 发表《天津宣言》，制定上合组织未来10年发展战略，做出成立上合组织开发银行的政治决定，设立六 个务实合作平台，发表关于促进能源可持续发展、绿色产业、数字经济、人工智能、科技创新合作5份 声明，发表关于支持多边贸易体制的声明，推动上合组织改革实现新的突破......海河之滨，2025年上海 合作组织（上合组织）天津峰会成果丰硕。 当前，百年变局加速演进，世界面临贸易摩擦、地缘政治、战略竞争多重挑战。在此背景下，作为世界 上幅员最广、人口最多的区域合作组织，上合组织的发展备受关注。 上海合作组织前秘书长弗拉基米尔·诺罗夫在接受南方财经记者独家专访时表示，《天津宣言》的发表 将对上合组织成员国产生直接且深远的影响。上合组织的未来前景十分光明，并已深度融入多极化世界 的架构之中。 他强调，随着各成员国进一步系统化推进可持续发展议程，上合组织将进一步巩固其作为欧亚地区负责 任增长中心的地位。 诺罗夫曾于2006年6月至2010年12月、2022年1月至2022年12月两次出任乌兹别克斯坦外交部长，并于 2019年至2 ...

上海合作组织成员国元首理事会天津宣言 上海合作组织（以下称"上合组织"或"本组织"）成员国领导人于2025年9月1日在中国天津举行元 首理事会会议，并发表宣言如下： 一 世界政治、经济形势及国际关系的其他各领域正经历深刻历史性变革。国际体系朝着更加公正、 平等、更具代表性的多极化方向演进，为各国自身发展和互利合作开辟了新的前景。 与此同时，地缘政治对抗愈演愈烈，对世界和上合组织地区的安全和稳定构成威胁与挑战。全球 经济，特别是国际贸易和金融市场遭受严重冲击。 2025年是第二次世界大战胜利和联合国成立80周年。爱好和平国家团结战胜纳粹主义、法西斯主 义、军国主义的伟大胜利，决定了世界历史发展进程，为建立保障人类和平发展的稳定国际关系 体系创造了条件。成员国呼吁铭记各国人民的英勇壮举和第二次世界大战历史教训。 联合国作为独一无二的政府间组织，为维护和平与安全、促进经济社会发展、保障人权开展了有 效工作，推动了必要合作。成员国重申坚持以《联合国宪章》及其他公认的国际法原则、尊重文 明多样性、平等互利合作为基础，发挥联合国中心协调作用，构建更具代表性、更加民主公正的 多极世界。 发表了《上合组织成员国元首理事会关于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is recognized as a successful and influential multilateral cooperation platform that plays a significant role in regional relationship development and stability maintenance [1][3]. Group 1: Role and Impact of SCO - The SCO has proven to be effective in various fields including security, economy, and culture since its establishment [1][3]. - Security issues have been prioritized by the SCO, particularly in the Central Asian region, with mechanisms for cooperation, information sharing, and counter-terrorism operations established to address security threats [3][5]. Group 2: China’s Role in SCO - China’s leadership as the rotating chair of the SCO has significantly enhanced the organization’s status and capabilities, aligning its potential with the opportunities presented by the SCO [3][5]. - The support from China for infrastructure projects, transportation, renewable energy, and bilateral trade has laid a solid foundation for deeper integration among member states [4][5]. Group 3: Tajikistan-China Relations - Tajikistan fully supports the agenda proposed by China during its chairmanship, particularly the establishment of the SCO Drug Control Center in Dushanbe, which is expected to contribute significantly to regional cooperation against drug trafficking [5][6]. - The relationship between Tajikistan and China has been elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership, covering various sectors such as economy, trade, water resources, finance, education, healthcare, and industry [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Projects and Cultural Cooperation - Both countries emphasize regional strategic projects, including transportation infrastructure, power network development, and digital technology collaboration, which enhance cultural and human exchanges [6][7]. - Tajikistan was one of the first countries to sign a memorandum for the Belt and Road Initiative, benefiting from significant Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects [6][7].

白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科像。新华社发（白俄罗斯总统新闻局供图） 卢卡申科说，白俄罗斯愿在几个关键方向继续与中方开展紧密合作。首先，深化两国发展战略的深度对接，加强在数字经济、物流 运输、高新技术等领域的协作，并积极探索拓展经贸一体化的新路径。其次，继续完善政府间合作机制，以提高协调和落实大型项 目的效率。第三，创新和技术合作。双方已成功联合举办"科技创新年"活动，并计划进一步重点关注产业合作。第四，继续扩大人 文交流，增进两国人民之间的相互理解和信任。 白俄罗斯成为上合组织成员国已有一年时间。卢卡申科说，上海合作组织是一个面向未来的组织。20余年来，上合组织通过多边合 作形成了独特的区域安全与发展模式。该组织证明了安全议题无需通过对抗，而是能够通过情报共享、联合演习、国家间信任建设 等措施，借助联合行动得以解决。这些机制帮助构建起稳定欧亚大陆的安全体系。上合组织还签署多个重要公约，成立地区反恐怖 机构等。2020年后，上合组织增添了网络安全、生物安全与民众健康保护等合作新方向。 "可以说，上合组织正稳步成为全球外交舞台的重要力量。该组织提出了不同于西方霸权模式的国际关系新范式，依托'上海精神'确 保平等合作与共识 ...

随着阿联酋航空迪拜—杭州航线的正式开通，阿联酋航空SkyCargo货运部每周往来东亚和东南亚地 区的货运运力已超过2.1万吨。得益于航班运营的进一步拓展，阿联酋航空SkyCargo货运部目前服务于 这一区域12个国家和地区的25个门户航点。 有着"世界工厂"之称的东亚和东南亚地区，已建立起繁荣的经济走廊，需要强大的航空货运能力将 货物运送至全球。阿联酋航空SkyCargo货运部在该地区的9个门户航点运营每周44个全货运航班，是其 全球航线网络中货运班次最频密的区域。此外，其每周往返东亚的13个包机航班，也为亚洲企业进入欧 洲和中东市场提供了稳定的运力及可靠的航线连接。除全货机和包机业务外，阿联酋航空在这一地区每 周还运营311个客运航班，采用空客A380和波音777两种机型执飞，为乘客出行和货物运输提供支持。 依托密集的航班安排，在东亚或东南亚地区，大约每半小时就有一架阿联酋航空的飞机从这里起 飞。阿联酋航空货运商务部远东、澳大利亚及新西兰地区副总裁表示："东亚和东南亚不仅是我们全球 网络的支柱，更是塑造全球物流和贸易未来的重要力量。从尖端制造中心到高增长的消费市场，该地区 推动着贸易往来的步伐。我们在东亚及 ...

Group 1: Economic Transformation - In 1978, China had a GDP per capita of only $156, but by 2024, it has risen to $13,400, marking a significant transformation into an open economy [3] - China is now the world's largest exporter, the second-largest importer, and the third-largest foreign investor, with its manufacturing GDP share increasing from approximately 8% in 2004 to around 30% in 2021 [3][4] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - China's total export and import values grew from about $10 billion each in 1978 to $3.56 trillion in exports and $2.71 trillion in imports by 2023, representing 15% and 11% of global trade, respectively [3][4] - The trade surplus for China in 2024 is projected to be $800 billion [3] Group 3: Import and Export Categories - The import composition has shifted, with raw materials now being the largest category, while capital goods' share has decreased from a peak of 40% in 2004 to 30% [4][6] - Exports have transitioned from labor-intensive consumer goods to capital-intensive products, with capital goods accounting for 41% of total exports by 2004 [5][6] Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - China's direct foreign investment has grown significantly from a few billion dollars in the early 2000s to $170 billion in 2024, surpassing foreign investment into China [6][7] - The share of manufacturing investment in China's foreign direct investment rose from 7.8% in 2014 to 13.7% in 2015, maintaining an average of 15.5% from 2015 to 2023 [7] Group 5: Global Industrial Shifts - Global industrial transfer follows a pattern where production concentrates in central areas to leverage economies of scale, with China currently experiencing an outward industrial transfer phase [8] - Chinese investments are diversifying into Southeast Asia, Central and South America, and North America, reflecting a multi-directional development trend [8] Group 6: Belt and Road Initiative - The Belt and Road Initiative is crucial for infrastructure development in low-income countries, which often struggle with industrial capacity despite low labor costs [9][10] - A World Bank report indicates that investments in transportation infrastructure under the initiative have significantly reduced transport times and increased foreign direct investment, aiding millions in escaping poverty [10]