Macroeconomic Dynamics - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 70 yuan and 75 yuan per ton respectively starting from October 13, 2023, due to the decline in international oil prices, resulting in a decrease of 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 gasoline and 0 diesel [2] - In the first three quarters, China's exports of high-tech products reached 3.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9%, contributing over 30% to the overall export growth [5] International Relations - The Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. for threatening to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China's rare earth export controls, emphasizing that this approach is not the correct way to engage with China [3] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry clarified that recent export control measures on rare earths are unrelated to Pakistan's cooperation with the U.S. and are part of China's legal framework to enhance its export control system [4] Financial Institutions - UBS indicated that if the MSCI China Index drops to 74, it will find strong support, with investors likely to buy on dips, as the index has risen 36% since April [7] - New China Life Insurance expects a net profit increase of 45% to 65% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reforms and improved asset allocation [9] - Everbright Bank plans to grant a comprehensive credit limit of 29 billion yuan to CITIC Financial Asset Management, constituting a related party transaction [10] - Bank of America raised its gold price forecast for next year to $5,000 per ounce [11] Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19%, with sectors like rare earth permanent magnets and gold showing strength, while over 3,600 stocks declined [12] - The financing balance in the two markets decreased by 34.95 billion yuan as of October 10, 2023 [13] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.52%, with significant movements in the gold and semiconductor sectors [14] Company Dynamics - Microsoft will stop providing security updates and technical support for Windows 10 starting October 14, 2023, urging users to upgrade to Windows 11 [16] - Boehringer Ingelheim announced the launch of local production for its diabetes medication in China, enhancing supply stability in the market [17] - Meituan introduced a "full refund for side effects" feature for certain medications, allowing users to return products if they experience adverse effects within 21 days [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry in China [6] Core Views - China's military trade market is expected to achieve new breakthroughs, with the successful establishment of a reusable rocket factory accelerating the low-orbit satellite network [2][11] - The procurement of 20 J-10CE fighter jets by Bangladesh for $2.2 billion signifies the growing recognition of Chinese military products and the potential for market expansion [10][15] - The completion of the first reusable rocket factory in Wenchang, Hainan, marks a significant advancement in commercial aerospace infrastructure, paving the way for scalable and reusable rocket development [10][17] Summary by Sections Military Trade Developments - Bangladesh plans to invest $2.2 billion to purchase 20 J-10CE fighter jets, with the total procurement cost including training and logistics expected to reach $2.2 billion [10][15] - The international competitiveness of Chinese military equipment is increasing due to enhanced technology performance and cost-effectiveness, transitioning from a focus on individual product advantages to comprehensive solution capabilities [16] Commercial Aerospace Advancements - The first reusable rocket assembly and testing factory in Wenchang, Hainan, has been completed, which will significantly enhance the production capacity and testing capabilities for reusable rockets [10][17] - The factory is expected to lower launch costs and accelerate the progress of commercial low-orbit satellite networks [17] Current Market Outlook - The military industry has stabilized recently, with a focus on domestic demand and military trade developments as key growth drivers [20] - The report highlights the importance of upstream components and key materials in supporting the lifecycle of various military equipment, indicating potential benefits from demand amplification effects [20] - The report suggests continued optimism for the military sector, with specific investment recommendations for various companies within the industry [10][20]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a style switch, with significant declines in technology sectors like semiconductors and storage chips, while military, public utilities, and traditional consumer sectors are showing strong gains, particularly the military sector which rose nearly 5% [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Major A-share indices have weakened, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.7%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.55%, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly six months [2]. - The military sector has emerged as a strong performer, contributing to most of the limit-up stocks on the day [2]. Sector Analysis - The military sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Jieqiang Equipment and Beifang Changlong rising over 10% [12][13]. - Other sectors that performed well include cement, gas, and consumer goods, with notable increases in their respective indices [3]. Technology Sector Decline - The technology sector faced a broad sell-off, with major stocks like SMIC and Cambrian Technology experiencing declines of 7.89% and 8.23%, respectively [4][7]. - The adjustment in financing rates for several A-share stocks in the semiconductor sector has been interpreted as a signal to reduce leverage in these high-flying stocks [6][10]. Gold and Precious Metals - The precious metals sector also faced declines, with West Gold down 9.09% and other gold-related stocks following suit [7][8]. - Factors contributing to the drop include profit-taking by investors and external geopolitical developments [9]. Military Industry Outlook - The military sector is expected to enter a new growth cycle, driven by increased orders and a favorable geopolitical environment, with projections indicating a potential 30% growth in military trade by 2025 [16][23]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide clearer development guidance for the military industry, enhancing overall market sentiment [24]. Investment Opportunities - The military sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with many companies trading at attractive valuations relative to expected demand recovery from 2025 to 2027 [25]. - Structural opportunities in military trade, new technologies, and asset restructuring are identified as core investment themes moving forward [24].

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the "Bayi" defense military ETF (512810) showing an increase of over 1%, indicating a potential for a three-day consecutive rise in daily trading [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The controlled nuclear fusion concept stocks are actively trading, with Western Superconducting reaching a 20% limit up, Lianchuang Optoelectronics rising over 6%, and Yingliu Co. increasing by over 5% [3] - Major stocks such as China Shipbuilding, Guangqi Technology, and Aero Engine Corporation are also showing positive performance [3] - The market is anticipating a rapid improvement in the industry fundamentals in the fourth quarter, as several defense and military listed companies are expected to announce 2025 restricted stock incentive plans or disclose new major contracts [4] Group 2: Industry Developments - The construction of China's nuclear fusion device BEST has commenced, which will be the first to demonstrate nuclear fusion power generation internationally, with expectations for operational capability by 2030 [3] - A recent report from AVIC Securities highlights the clear rotation characteristics within the military industry sector, including themes such as nuclear fusion, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, large aircraft, and military trade [5] - The defense military ETF (512810) is positioned as an efficient tool for investing in core assets of the defense military sector, covering various popular themes including controlled nuclear fusion, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, and military AI [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [4]. Core Insights - The signing of a significant contract with AVIC Technology, amounting to 615 million RMB (excluding tax), reflects the high prosperity of military trade, with expectations for substantial growth in domestic trade in the second half of the year [1][8]. - The company’s inventory reached a historical high of 3.628 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a significant increase of 38.48% compared to the end of the previous year, indicating preparations for timely product delivery [8]. - The company plans to repurchase shares for employee stock ownership plans, demonstrating confidence in future development [8]. - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 indicate net profits of 290 million, 378 million, and 441 million RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 116, 89, and 76 [8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.664 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 4%. A significant recovery is expected in 2025 with a projected revenue of 3.375 billion RMB, reflecting a 393% increase [3][16]. - The company’s net profit for 2023 is estimated at 303 million RMB, with a forecasted loss of 54 million RMB in 2024, followed by a recovery to 290 million RMB in 2025 [3][16]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 3.36 billion RMB, with a current share price of 49.74 RMB [4]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is China Aviation Industry Group Co., Ltd., holding a 16.6% stake in the company [4].

Market Overview - A-shares ended September with all major indices rising, with the ChiNext Index up approximately 12%, marking a three-year high, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index up over 11%, reaching a nearly four-year high [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 12.73% in Q3, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 29.25%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 50.40% [1] - On September 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78 points, up 0.52%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51 points, up 0.35% [1] Sector Performance Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant gains, with companies like Jiangxi Copper and Jingyi Co. hitting their daily limit up [2][3] - The cobalt market experienced a sharp increase, with the average price of 1 cobalt reaching 337,000 CNY/ton, a rise of 29,000 CNY, marking the largest single-day increase this year [3] - Factors contributing to this surge include tightening global supply and strong domestic demand in the new energy sector [3][6] Semiconductor Sector - The storage chip sector was notably active, with Jiangbolong and Huahong Semiconductor reaching new highs, with Jiangbolong hitting a 20% limit up [7] - NAND flash prices are expected to rise by 5%-10% in the coming quarters due to high demand in the enterprise SSD market [9] Military Trade - The military trade sector saw a rise, with companies like Guorui Technology and AVIC Shenfei hitting their daily limit up [10] - Increased global security concerns due to the worsening situation in the Middle East are expected to boost defense spending, enhancing demand for Chinese military equipment [10]

Group 1 - The military industry sector is experiencing a resurgence ahead of the National Day, with expectations that China may quickly capture a significant share of the global military trade market [1] - The aerospace equipment segment is particularly active, with China's mid-to-high-end equipment becoming a popular choice in the global military trade market, focusing on products such as aircraft, ships, armored vehicles, and missiles [1] - Short-term prospects indicate that equipment with prior export experience or already in service domestically will likely see orders materialize first, while long-term expectations include increased defense technology exchanges between China and friendly nations [1] Group 2 - The Defense ETF closely tracks the CSI Defense Index, which includes listed companies under the ten major military groups and those providing weaponry and equipment to the armed forces, reflecting the overall performance of defense industry listed companies [2] - Among the 13 ETFs tracking defense and military sectors, the Defense ETF has the lowest management and custody fees at 0.40%, making it unique in its category [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Defense Index account for 43.88% of the index, with key companies including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760) and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft (000768) [2]

Group 1 - The China Defense Index (399973) has seen a strong increase of 2.86%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Huayin Technology (688281) up 11.71%, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760) up 8.56%, and Western Superconducting Technologies (688122) up 7.34% [1] - The defense ETF (512670) rose by 2.70%, with the latest price reported at 0.84 yuan [1] - A defense agreement was signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on September 17, stating that any attack on either country would be considered an attack on both [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicates that China's military trade is transitioning from low-cost exports to high-end weapon exports, with domestic military products gaining competitive strength internationally [1] - The China Defense Index includes listed companies under the top ten military industrial groups and those providing weaponry to the armed forces, reflecting the overall performance of defense industry stocks [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Defense Index accounted for 43.88% of the index, with major companies including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760) and AVIC Aviation Power (600893) [2]

Core Insights - The defense and military industry index experienced a decline of -0.42% over the past week, ranking 13th out of 31 in the Shenwan primary industry classification [5][9] - Over the past month, the index fell by -9.03%, ranking last at 31st out of 31 [5][10] - In the past year, the index has increased by 40.43%, ranking 10th out of 31 [5][15] - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 84.84, which is at the 77.44th percentile compared to the past decade [5][15][16] Industry and Stock Performance Review Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index's performance over the past week, month, and year shows significant fluctuations, with a notable annual increase [5][9][15] - The industry is currently facing a high valuation level, with the PE-TTM at a historical relative high [5][15] Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks in the defense and military sector over the past week include: - Xingwang Yuda (11.84%) - Aerospace Electronics (7.76%) - Sichuan Chuangxin (4.77%) [5][20] - Conversely, the worst-performing stocks include: - Jinxin Nuo (-5.70%) - Torch Electronics (-5.75%) - Hongyuan Electronics (-5.88%) [5][20] Funding Data Tracking - The total transaction volume for the defense and military industry reached 257 billion yuan this week, representing an 88.28% increase year-on-year but a decrease of 8.22% week-on-week [5][34] - The military ETF fund shares increased by 2.12% compared to last week and 82.40% compared to last year [5][37] Industry News - The successful training of three types of carrier-based aircraft on the Fujian ship marks a significant milestone for China's naval capabilities [5][46] - The U.S. has indicated that aircraft engines and components may become important bargaining chips in negotiations with China, highlighting the strategic importance of the aviation industry [5][45] Investment Recommendations - Suggested investment focuses include: - Aviation engines: Companies like Wanzhe Co., Parker New Materials, and others [5][46] - Military trade: Companies such as Hongdu Aviation and others [5][46] - Commercial aerospace: Companies like Aerospace Power and others [5][46] - Aircraft carrier supply chain: Companies such as Guorui Technology and others [5][46] - Military AI: Companies like Guanshang Technology and others [5][46]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Defense (中船防务) has seen a stock price increase of over 5%, currently trading at 15.58 HKD, with a trading volume of 85.91 million HKD. The company is rated "Buy" by Shenwan Hongyuan, benefiting from the global shipbuilding cycle and its own capacity release [1]. Company Summary - The projected net profit for China Shipbuilding Defense for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 1.1 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.8 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 11, and 7 [1]. - The current market capitalization to order backlog ratio is 0.42, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 0.53, indicating that the company is at a historical low valuation [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from accelerated delivery of high-value orders, strong demand for replacing old ships, and anticipated resolution of competition within the industry, providing ample room for performance elasticity and valuation recovery [1]. Industry Summary - Galaxy Securities highlights the potential in military trade and new quality fields, with positive expectations for equipment procurement during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, suggesting that order traction may begin in Q4 2025 [1]. - The focus on the 100th anniversary of the military in 2027 is expected to drive demand for new main battle equipment and new quality combat capabilities, sustaining high industry prosperity [1].