9月24日午后，三大指数持续上涨，盘面上半导体、游戏等板块涨幅居前，军工板块持续上涨。同 类规模最大的航空航天ETF（159227）震荡上行，截至13时25分，上涨0.36%，成交额7116万元，稳居 同类第一。持仓股中，振芯科技、海特高新、振华风光、光机技术等领涨。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 航空航天ETF（159227） 跟踪国证航天指数，该指数军工属性极强，申万一级军工行业占比 97.96%，是全市场军工含量最高的指数！更聚焦的是，其航空航天装备权重占比高达65.4%，远超中证 军工和中证国防指数。作为跟踪该指数的最大规模ETF，为投资者提供了高效把握核心军工空天机遇的 途径。 每日经济新闻 在新国际形势、新战场形态下，行业新需求方向清晰。随着战争形态加速向信息化智能化战争演 变，一体化联合作战已成为基本作战形式，平台作战、体系支撑、战术行动、战略保障成 ...

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector experienced a significant rise on September 24, with the popular defense ETF (512810) increasing by over 1% in the afternoon, with a trading volume exceeding 59 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Aopu Optoelectronics, Tunan Co., and Ruichuang Micro-Nano, which saw gains of 4.05%, 3.25%, and 2.97% respectively [1] - Conversely, Xiangdian Co., Feiliwa, and Qiyi Er experienced declines of 3.17%, 1.54%, and 1.48% respectively [1] Group 2 - The 2025 Air Force Aviation Open event took place from September 19 to 23 in Changchun, showcasing the J-20 fighter jet for the first time, highlighting China's aerospace equipment technology strength [3] - A strategic defense agreement was signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which is expected to deepen cooperation in military trade [3] - Huatai Securities noted that the worsening situation in the Middle East has raised concerns about the reliability of American equipment, potentially boosting China's military trade demand [3] - Global defense spending is increasing, with expectations for China's equipment exports to the Middle East strengthening, particularly with the upcoming Dubai Airshow in November serving as an important showcase [3] - Huafu Securities projected significant growth in both domestic and international demand for the defense industry from 2025 to 2027, driven by multiple catalysts including the 14th Five-Year Plan and rapid military trade development [3] - The defense ETF (512810) passively tracks the CSI Military Industry Index, which includes top-weighted stocks such as China Shipbuilding, Guangqi Technology, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [3] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Military Industry Index include China Shipbuilding, Guangqi Technology, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Aero Engine Corporation of China, AVIC Optoelectronics, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, Feiliwa, China Great Wall, Aerospace Electronics, and AVIC Aircraft [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The export of Chinese high-end military equipment is expected to accelerate, with military trade likely to see new growth [10][11] - The 2025 Changchun Airshow showcases China's expanding influence in military equipment [12][13] - The current market conditions indicate a continued positive outlook for the military industry [14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include: - Military Electronics: Aerospace Electric (002025, Buy), Zhonghang Optics (002179, Buy), and others [14] - New Quality and Domains: Haige Communication (002465, Buy), and others [14] - Engine Supply Chain: Western Superconducting (688122, Buy), and others [14] - Military Trade/Main Equipment: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760, Unrated), and others [14] Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index (Shenwan) decreased by 0.97%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [16][18] - The overall military sector has stabilized recently, with a focus on domestic demand and military trade developments [10][14] Recent Developments - The signing of a defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan enhances the export potential of Chinese military equipment [10][11] - The Changchun Airshow highlighted advanced military aircraft, including the J-20, indicating China's growing military capabilities [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) has shown significant growth in both scale and share, indicating strong investor interest in the aerospace and defense sector [3][5]. Product Highlights - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, with a military attribute of 97.86%, making it the highest military content index in the market. The aerospace equipment weight is 66.8%, surpassing other military indices [3]. Hot Events - The 2025 Air Force Aviation Open Day commenced in Changchun, showcasing the modernization achievements of the Chinese Air Force through aerial performances and ground exercises [3]. - Concurrently, the 2025 Changchun Aviation Exhibition featured over a hundred types of equipment, focusing on emerging fields like drones and low-altitude economy, serving as a platform for technology display and industry collaboration [4]. Institutional Views - According to AVIC Securities, the military industry is expected to enter a relatively stable phase due to recent events and the completion of mid-year performance disclosures. The market shows low systemic risk, with structural rotation within the military sector [5]. - The military sector has demonstrated resilience and vitality, avoiding volatility risks associated with overheating in single areas. Improved performance in certain fields and the anticipation of new orders are expected to strengthen the market outlook [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of AVIC (02357) has risen over 4%, currently trading at 4.11 HKD with a transaction volume of 377 million HKD, following the signing of a defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which states that any attack on either country will be considered an attack on both [1] Group 1: Company Overview - AVIC is the only flagship company in the Hong Kong capital market focused on aviation high-tech military and civilian general products and services [1] - The company holds controlling stakes in four A-share listed companies: AVIC Helicopter (600038), Hongdu Aviation (600316), AVIC Aircraft (600372), and AVIC Optoelectronics (002179) [1] - Its main business areas include helicopters, trainer aircraft, general aviation, airborne systems, aviation components, and aviation engineering services [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Galaxy Securities, the military industry has significant potential, emphasizing a long-term focus over short-term gains [1] - The ongoing India-Pakistan conflict is enhancing the visibility of Chinese military products, indicating a favorable environment for military trade [1] - The combination of domestic demand and military trade is expected to open up substantial equipment demand opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector experienced significant movement, with Hongda Electronics leading with a rise of 6.38%, Plittech up by 5.26%, and Huafeng Technology increasing by 4.65% [1] - The defense military ETF (512810) saw a price increase of over 1% in the market [1] - China Galaxy Securities suggests that the defense and military sector is expected to stabilize as the fund adjustment period post "September 3" approaches its end [3] Group 2 - The upcoming procurement of equipment under the "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to boost upstream orders, with a positive outlook for order growth in the fourth quarter [3] - NATO countries are significantly increasing military spending, indicating an escalation in the global arms race, while China's military expenditure has considerable room for growth [3] - The long-term outlook for the military industry is optimistic, with the potential for increased domestic demand and military trade, especially in light of the India-Pakistan conflict [3] Group 3 - The defense military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool, covering various themes such as commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, military AI, low-altitude economy, and large aircraft [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The military trade market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, with advanced weaponry impacting national military capabilities and political dynamics. The U.S. and its allies dominate global military trade exports, accounting for 64.10% and 78.06% of total exports in the periods 2015-2019 and 2020-2024, respectively [2][34] - The global military trade market is characterized by high concentration, with the top ten exporting countries accounting for 89.70% of total exports from 2015-2019 and 88.60% from 2020-2024. The U.S. and France are the top two exporters in the latter period, with a combined share of 52.60% [2][34] - China's military trade share is expected to increase in the long term, aligning with its manufacturing capabilities and international influence, despite currently holding only 3.9% of the global military trade market in 2024 [2][34] Summary by Sections Military Trade Overview - Military trade, or arms trade, is a unique sector closely tied to geopolitical and military strategies, reflecting national interests and political continuity [12] - The United Nations defines military trade as the transfer of military equipment between countries, which plays a crucial role in regulating international political relations [12] Global Military Trade Landscape - According to SIPRI, global military trade has experienced stable growth, with total trade increasing from 80.82 billion TIV in 1950 to 289.38 billion TIV in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 1.72% [30] - The military trade market has undergone three significant fluctuations since 1950, with the most recent period (2002-present) showing a recovery in trade volumes due to increased global tensions and military spending [30] Major Military Exporting Countries - The top five military exporting countries from 2015-2019 were the U.S., Russia, France, China, and Germany, with the U.S. maintaining a dominant position [34] - The military trade export figures for the U.S. rose from 503.68 billion TIV in 2015-2019 to 609.49 billion TIV in 2020-2024, marking a 21.01% increase [35] China's Military Trade Situation - China's military trade has seen fluctuations, with exports decreasing from 88.62 billion TIV in 2015-2019 to 83.85 billion TIV in 2020-2024, a decline of 5.38% [35] - The report highlights that China's military trade is expected to grow due to increasing geopolitical conflicts and the country's enhanced military capabilities [2][34]

Summary of Zhongtian Rocket Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongtian Rocket is a leading company in the small solid rocket industry, established in 1989 as part of the Aerospace Science and Technology Group. The company has a strong technical foundation and has developed various products including rain enhancement rockets and small guided missiles [11][12]. Industry Insights Weather Modification Industry - Zhongtian Rocket holds over 50% market share in the rain enhancement and hail suppression rocket sector, benefiting from global warming and supportive policies. The demand for these rockets is expected to grow due to increasing extreme weather events and government initiatives aimed at advancing the weather modification industry by 2035 [2][6][15]. Military Products - The demand for small solid missiles has surged due to increased global military trade and regional conflicts. These missiles are suitable for low to medium intensity warfare and have performed well since their introduction in 2018. The Chinese defense budget has maintained over 7% growth for three consecutive years, further driving demand for consumables like rockets [2][7][17][18]. Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic business faces challenges from industry overcapacity and price wars. However, Zhongtian Rocket is exploring new applications for carbon-carbon thermal field materials, such as high-performance carbon-ceramic brake discs for vehicles, which have gained recognition from downstream manufacturers [2][4][16]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to present, the company's revenue and net profit have shown a trend of initial growth followed by decline, primarily due to decreased procurement of carbon-carbon thermal field materials and rain enhancement rockets. However, in the first half of 2025, the proportion of rain enhancement rockets increased to 58%, leading to a rebound in gross margin to 23% [2][13][14]. Future Growth Potential - The company projects net profits of 76 million yuan, 156 million yuan, and 218 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The target stock price is set at 70.30 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 45.96% based on the market capitalization as of September 9, 2025 [4][10]. Key Catalysts for Growth - Potential catalysts for Zhongtian Rocket's growth include the introduction of specific policies related to meteorological special bonds, approvals for military exports, and the implementation of military industrial plans outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - The company is seen as having strong core competitiveness in military and rain enhancement sectors. Despite short-term pressures in the photovoltaic segment, technological innovations may lead to a turnaround. Additionally, potential asset restructuring could provide further positive impacts [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the significant role of military trade in shaping geopolitical dynamics and national security, highlighting that military equipment exports are deeply intertwined with political interests and international relations [2][4]. Group 1: Overview of Military Trade - Military trade, or arms trade, is defined as the transfer of military equipment between countries, reflecting political, military, and diplomatic strategies [19]. - The military trade market is characterized by high concentration, with the top ten exporting countries accounting for 89.70% of global military trade from 2015-2019 and 88.60% from 2020-2024 [4][38]. - The primary military trade products include aircraft, missiles, naval vessels, and specialized vehicles, with aircraft consistently representing over 40% of the market share [4][38]. Group 2: Global Military Trade Landscape - The United States and its allies dominate global military trade, accounting for 64.10% and 78.06% of exports in the periods 2015-2019 and 2020-2024, respectively [2][42]. - The top five military exporting countries from 2015-2019 were the United States, Russia, France, China, and Germany, with France surpassing Russia in the subsequent period due to a decline in Russian exports [4][38]. - The global military trade market has experienced three major fluctuations since 1950, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.72% from 80.82 billion TIV to 289.38 billion TIV [37][38]. Group 3: Military Trade Dynamics - The military trade sector is influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, which are the primary importers of military equipment [4][38]. - Recent trends show a decline in Russian military exports by 63.90% due to sanctions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, while countries like Italy have seen significant increases in their military trade [42]. - The report indicates that military trade is not merely an economic activity but a strategic tool for nations to exert influence and maintain security balances [2][41].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but there are signs of potential recovery in the upcoming quarters due to a large number of products that have passed delivery acceptance but have not yet reached the payment milestone [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.702 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 38.99% year-on-year [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 913 million yuan, down 68.33% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 855 million yuan, showing a substantial increase of 1180.03% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in revenue and net profit was primarily due to a significant reduction in product sales, particularly in the aviation sector, where revenue decreased by approximately 39.81% [2]. Cost and Expense Analysis - Financial expenses saw a significant change due to a decrease in interest income [2]. - Research and development expenses amounted to 213 million yuan, down approximately 25.93% year-on-year [2]. - Selling expenses slightly decreased by 0.27% to 45.8925 million yuan, while management expenses decreased by 2.49% to 562 million yuan [2]. Order and Payment Dynamics - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased by approximately 38.30% to 17.635 billion yuan, while contract assets increased significantly by about 51.46% [3]. - Accounts receivable surged by 90.95% to 16.346 billion yuan, indicating a busy delivery phase, with many products having passed acceptance but not yet reached the payment timeline [3]. - Prepayments decreased by approximately 12.95%, while accounts payable increased by about 8.42% [3]. Industry Outlook - The Chinese military trade sector is entering a new phase, with increasing international competitiveness and a growing demand for high-tech weaponry [4]. - China's military trade market share is currently low compared to global leaders like the U.S. and Russia, indicating significant growth potential [4]. - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics, particularly the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may create new opportunities for China's military exports [4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of strategic air force construction and the rapid advancement of domestic aircraft manufacturing [6]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to 2027 are 3.593 billion yuan, 4.185 billion yuan, and 5.420 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3099.40%, 16.48%, and 29.50% respectively [6].