Group 1 - A-shares opened lower on July 31, but the defense and military industry saw a rebound, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) experiencing active trading and a transaction volume of 24.95 million yuan by 9:50 AM, ranking first among its peers [1] - The Aerospace ETF has attracted over 400 million yuan in capital since July, reaching a new high of 760 million yuan in total assets [1] - The upcoming Army Day and the military parade on September 3 have increased market attention on the defense and military industry, with a recovery in demand and orders since 2025, leading to a shift in institutional allocation towards the sector after ten consecutive quarters of reduction [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Securities predicts that ongoing geopolitical conflicts in 2025 will provide practical testing for China's military trade exports, potentially leading to a revaluation of domestic defense and military enterprises [2] - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on military trade, new domains and qualities, and restructuring as the three main lines in the defense and military sector [2]

Industry Overview - The defense and military industry index increased by 1.28% in the week from July 19 to July 26, ranking 24th out of 31 in the Shenwan primary industry [1][7] - Over the past month, the index rose by 7.26%, ranking 13th out of 31 [1][10] - In the past year, the index has increased by 39.44%, ranking 12th out of 31 [1][12] Valuation Metrics - As of July 26, the PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 84.92, which is at the 77.27 percentile of the past ten years [1][15] - The PE-TTM for the aviation equipment sector is 76.50 (71.02 percentile), for aerospace equipment is 146.02 (95.80 percentile), for naval equipment is 53.82 (3.33 percentile), for military electronics is 103.87 (96.33 percentile), and for ground armaments is 189.72 (95.27 percentile) [1][13][15] Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks in the defense and military sector for the week include: - Boyun New Material (25.16%) - Feilihua (20.79%) - Xinyu Guoke (10.14%) - Hongdu Aviation (9.69%) - Optoelectronic Co. (9.37%) [1][18] - The worst-performing stocks include: - Tianqin Equipment (-3.40%) - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (-3.56%) - Taihao Technology (-3.89%) - Hailanxin (-3.98%) - Guorui Technology (-7.61%) [1][18] Key Industry Data Tracking - Current price of sponge titanium is 45 RMB/kg, unchanged from a week ago but down 8.16% year-on-year [1][31] - LME nickel spot price is 15,245 USD/ton, up 2.32% week-on-week and 2.97% month-on-month, but down 1.45% year-on-year [1][31] - Domestic acrylonitrile price is 8,050 RMB/ton, unchanged from a week ago, down 1.83% month-on-month, and down 11.54% year-on-year [1][33] Industry News - The Yanxin Satellite has a 1.336 billion RMB tender for launch services, with a total of 7 launches planned for 94 satellites [1][48] - The National Space Administration issued a notice to strengthen quality supervision of commercial space projects [1][48] - Conflicts occurred between Cambodia and Thailand along the border [1][48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on military trade, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy as key investment themes and targets due to escalating geopolitical conflicts [1][50]

Group 1: Market Trends - In the early trading session, major funds saw net inflows in sectors such as defense, non-bank financials, and electronics, while there were net outflows in computer, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors, with the computer sector experiencing a net outflow exceeding 5.3 billion [1] - As of July 28, the Defense ETF (512670.SH) rose by 1.22%, and its associated index, the China Defense Index (399973.SZ), increased by 1.42% [1] Group 2: Military Equipment Developments - On July 21, the China Weapon Industry Group conducted a demonstration of unmanned and counter-unmanned combat systems, showcasing new combat capabilities in the unmanned domain [2] - Unmanned systems, particularly loitering munitions, are expected to play a crucial role in future combat, offering low-cost advantages and high lethality against valuable targets [2] Group 3: Investment Insights - In Q2 2025, active funds increased their allocation to military industry stocks, with an overweight increase of 0.35 percentage points from Q1, indicating a growing interest in military trade and new combat capabilities [3] - The military trade sector is anticipated to become a second growth driver, with significant performance potential in the context of recovering market conditions [3] - Key stocks in the military sector include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company, Guorui Technology, and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group, among others, which are expected to benefit from increased demand and investment [3][4]

Group 1 - The military industry sector experienced a significant rise, with construction industry stocks hitting a historical high [1] - Aerospace power and other related companies saw substantial gains, with stocks like Superjet and West Testing rising over 10% [1] - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that certain upstream sectors have shown improved performance in Q2, enhancing the sector's certainty [1] Group 2 - The recovery in the military trade sector is expected to become a second growth driver as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion [1] - The overall sentiment in the military industry is improving, with more positive changes being realized [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The integrated combat system of China is expected to rapidly open up the market, with military trade likely to continue increasing [16][17]. - In Q2 2025, active funds have significantly increased their overweight position in the military sector, with expectations for further increases focusing on military trade and new combat directions [21]. - The current market position remains optimistic for the military sector, with upstream components and key materials expected to benefit from demand amplification effects [22]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Military Trade and Equipment Strength - The Weapon Industry Group showcased China's military trade capabilities in unmanned and counter-unmanned systems, indicating a growing demand for military trade [9][16]. - The demonstration included various advanced equipment such as the BZK-005E drone and the Tianlong 100 air defense missile system, highlighting the capabilities of China's integrated combat system [17][18]. 1.2 Fund Allocation Trends - In Q2 2025, the overweight position of active funds in the military sector increased to 0.92 percentage points, up from 0.57 percentage points in Q1 2025, indicating a growing confidence in military trade and new combat technologies [21][22]. - The report suggests that the market's understanding of the marginal elasticity of military trade is still insufficient, with potential for performance releases to strengthen military trade logic [21]. 1.3 Current Market Outlook - The military sector has shown positive performance since July, with many sub-sectors still at low levels, suggesting significant configuration value [22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upstream components and key materials in weapon development and production, which are expected to benefit from increased demand [22]. Appendix: Market Performance and News - The defense and military industry index rose by 1.28% but underperformed compared to the broader market indices [24]. - Key military companies have reported significant growth in their half-year earnings, with many companies showing rapid increases in net profits [44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (看好) for the defense and military industry, marking the first rating of its kind [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the ongoing geopolitical complexities, such as the recent conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, are likely to sustain military trade benefits, leading to an increase in the valuation of the military industry [3]. - China's share in the international arms trade market is expected to continue rising, with a reported market share of 5.8% from 2019 to 2023, as the demand for advanced weaponry remains high [4]. - Sub-sectors such as unmanned equipment and rocket artillery are anticipated to benefit significantly from international conflicts and military trade orders, with specific companies identified as potential beneficiaries [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry is experiencing a favorable outlook due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased military spending [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The international transfer of major weapons has increased by 3.2% from 2019 to 2023 compared to the previous five-year period, indicating a robust demand for military equipment [4]. Investment Opportunities - Key beneficiaries in the unmanned equipment sector include companies like Jingpin Special Equipment and Aerospace Rainbow, while ammunition-related companies such as Gaode Infrared and Guangdong Hongda are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that 2025 is a pivotal year for the military industry, with a recovery in performance expected in the second half due to the release of delayed orders and the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][6] - The global geopolitical landscape is entering a period of turmoil, which is anticipated to drive an unprecedented increase in military spending, benefiting China's military exports [5][6] - The Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center is positioned to play a crucial role in satellite internet construction, with its capabilities expected to enhance the deployment of low Earth orbit satellite constellations [5][6] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a positive trend, with 26 listed brokerages reporting a net profit growth rate exceeding 40% for the first half of the year, driven by increased trading activity and investment banking services [7] - The new materials sector has shown a mixed performance, with the new materials index rising by 1.37%, while specific sub-sectors like synthetic biology and industrial gases have seen notable increases [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory measures in the new energy vehicle industry to curb irrational competition, which is expected to improve profitability across the supply chain [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [5]. Core Insights - The military industry is expected to see a significant increase in fund allocation, with a focus on military trade and new combat capabilities. The report suggests that the military trade sector will continue to catalyze growth, and there is still room for upward movement in holdings [2][34]. - The report highlights that the pessimistic expectations for the military industry's upstream have already been reflected in stock prices, and an increase in market confidence regarding the sustainability of the industry will likely enhance upstream holdings [34]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Allocation Trends - In Q2 2025, the active funds' heavy allocation in the military sector increased significantly, with a rise in the allocation ratio from 0.57 percentage points to 0.92 percentage points. The total market value of active funds in the military sector grew by 20.77% [12][8]. - The report notes that the allocation ratio for component stocks decreased significantly, but it is expected to rebound as orders materialize and market conditions improve [18][22]. 2. Focus Areas for Investment - The report recommends focusing on specific sub-sectors within the military industry, including: - Military Electronics: Companies like Zhenhua Technology (000733, Buy), Aerospace Electronics (002025, Buy), and others [2][34]. - Key Materials and Components: Companies such as Western Superconducting (688122, Buy) and others [2][34]. - Engine Chain: Companies like Aero Engine Corporation (600893, Not Rated) and others [2][34]. - Military Trade: Companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760, Not Rated) and others [2][34]. - New Quality Productivity: Companies like Aerospace Electronics (600879, Not Rated) and others [3][34]. 3. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the military trade business is expected to accelerate, with a positive outlook for military trade stocks. The active funds are increasingly focusing on sectors benefiting from military trade and new combat capabilities [7][22]. - The report emphasizes that the market's understanding of the marginal elasticity of military trade for military enterprises is still insufficient, suggesting that future catalysts and performance releases will strengthen the military trade logic [22][34].

Group 1 - The report indicates that 2025 is a pivotal year for the military industry, with delayed orders from the 14th Five-Year Plan gradually being released, leading to improved demand and a recovery in performance expected in the second half of 2025 [2][13] - The military industry is anticipated to enter a new growth phase due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, which will drive military spending upward [3][24] - The report highlights that the military trade market is experiencing heightened expectations, particularly influenced by events such as the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow and the ongoing India-Pakistan conflict [2][3] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in the future development of satellite internet, with its capabilities being comparable to or even superior to those of Vandenberg Space Force Base [4][24] - The military industry is recommended to focus on the missile weapon industry chain, new aviation equipment industry chain, and unmanned equipment industry chain, with specific companies highlighted for their strategic positions [4][6] - Key companies to watch include Beifang Navigation and Aerospace Electric in the missile weapon industry chain, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and AVIC High-Tech in the new aviation equipment industry chain, and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group in the unmanned equipment industry chain [6][4] Group 3 - The military industry has shown a significant performance recovery, with the index rising by 8.85% compared to the beginning of 2025, driven by improved market sentiment and military trade expectations [14][20] - The report notes that the military industry has maintained a high valuation level, with a PE/TTM ratio of 83X, indicating strong institutional interest and a potential for further growth [17][20] - The military industry is expected to benefit from the global trend of increasing military expenditures, with China's defense industry poised to reshape the high-end military trade market [3][24]

Group 1 - The military industry sector continues to show strong performance, with companies like Steel Research High-Tech and New Yu Guo Ke rising over 10% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Holley Wo, Hongdu Aviation, Changcheng Military Industry, Chenxi Aviation, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, also experienced gains [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, geopolitical conflicts are expected to persist into 2025, leading to practical testing of China's military trade export equipment in overseas conflicts, which may result in a revaluation of domestic defense and military enterprises [1]