Core Insights - Dalian issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 5.91405 billion, an issuance rate of 1.7100%, and a marginal multiple of 1.16 times, with an expected multiple of 1.75 [1] - Dalian also issued 20-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 723 million, an issuance rate of 2.0400%, and a marginal multiple of 3.53 times, with an expected multiple of 2.02 [1] Summary by Category - **Bond Issuance** - Dalian's 10-year general local bonds totaled 5.91405 billion with a rate of 1.7100% and a marginal multiple of 1.16 times [1] - The expected multiple for the 10-year bonds was 1.75 [1] - **Special Bonds** - The 20-year ordinary special local bonds issued by Dalian amounted to 723 million with a rate of 2.0400% and a marginal multiple of 3.53 times [1] - The expected multiple for the 20-year bonds was 2.02 [1]

Group 1 - Xinjiang issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 12.214 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.7400%, with a marginal multiple of 1.46 times, slightly below the expected multiple of 1.75 [1] - Xinjiang issued 10-year other special local bonds with a scale of 2.493 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.7800%, achieving a marginal multiple of 1.67 times, also below the expected multiple of 1.75 [1] - Xinjiang issued 15-year other special local bonds with a scale of 3.340 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.9500%, with a marginal multiple of 1.81 times, slightly below the expected multiple of 1.94 [1] Group 2 - Xinjiang issued 20-year other special local bonds with a scale of 1.686 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.0500%, achieving a significantly high marginal multiple of 6.96 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 2.03 [1] - Xinjiang issued 30-year other special local bonds with a scale of 8.600 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.0500%, with a marginal multiple of 6.03 times, also exceeding the expected multiple of 2.04 [1]

云南发行7年期其他专项地方债，规模44.1543亿元，发行利率1.6600%，边际倍数1.26倍，倍数预期 1.68； 云南发行10年期其他专项地方债，规模4.9740亿元，发行利率1.7700%，边际倍数1.39倍，倍数预期 1.75。 云南发行30年期其他专项地方债，规模69.2685亿元，发行利率2.0500%，边际倍数1.04倍，倍数预期 2.03； 云南发行7年期其他专项地方债，规模89.8772亿元，发行利率1.6600%，边际倍数1.24倍，倍数预期 1.68； 云南发行10年期其他专项地方债，规模100.0000亿元，发行利率1.7500%，边际倍数1.81倍，倍数预期 1.77； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the net financing of local bonds increased, with long - term issuance accounting for a higher proportion, and the weighted average issuance spread widened. Also, the secondary spread of medium - and long - term local bonds narrowed, and the trading volume and turnover rate declined [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, the issuance of local bonds was 231.8 billion yuan, the repayment was 121.6 billion yuan, and the net financing was 110.2 billion yuan. The issuance included 14.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 64 billion yuan of new special bonds, 82.9 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 70.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance of 10 - year local bonds accounted for the highest proportion (41%), and the issuance of 10 - year and above accounted for 75%, an increase compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds were 15%, 41%, 7%, 7%, and 20% respectively, with the 15 - year issuance proportion decreasing by about 12 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, 28.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.8246 trillion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 105.9 billion yuan respectively [2][14]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 10.9bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 18.3bp. Except for the 5 - year local bonds, whose weighted average issuance spread narrowed, the spreads of other terms widened. Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu, and Guangdong had relatively high weighted average issuance spreads, exceeding 12bp, while Jilin had a relatively low spread [1][23]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 11.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.3% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, totaling 2.6041 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 126.28 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 164.66 billion yuan and 95.75 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 251.2 billion yuan, the repayment is 100.7 billion yuan, and the net financing is 150.5 billion yuan, a 40.3 - billion - yuan increase from this week [3][28]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were advantageous, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 3 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were 16.5bp, 15.6bp, and 15.4bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of local bonds over 20 - year and 15 - 20 - year in all types of regions were relatively high, and the 10 - 15 - year local bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high spreads [5][32]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds decreased compared to last week. The local bonds of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local bonds this week reached 377.8 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.73%. Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong had large trading volumes, reaching 33.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.4 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin were all above 1.3% [5][37].

Core Viewpoint - Jilin Province issued a 7-year general local government bond with a scale of 3.7083 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.6500% [1] Group 1 - The bond issuance had a marginal multiple of 1.94 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.68 [1]

Group 1 - Guizhou issued 10-year special local bonds with a scale of 12.2 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.72% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 10-year bonds was 1.91 times, with an expected multiple of 1.75 [1] - Guizhou also issued 30-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 15 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.04% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 30-year bonds was 8.33 times, with an expected multiple of 2.00 [1]

Group 1 - Anhui issued 7-year general local bonds with a scale of 12.7967 billion, an issuance rate of 1.6500%, and a marginal multiple of 1.65, with an expected multiple of 1.67 [1] - Anhui issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 89.2033 billion, an issuance rate of 1.7300%, and a marginal multiple of 2.44, with an expected multiple of 1.73 [1] - Anhui issued 10-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 2.9300 billion, an issuance rate of 1.7400%, and a marginal multiple of 3.77, with an expected multiple of 1.72 [1]

Report Title - "Special Bond Issuance Progress Nearly 50% - Government Bond Weekly Report (7/6)" [1][4] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment - trading indicators [2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance (June 30 - July 6)**: Total issuance was 721.39 billion yuan, with 574.32 billion yuan in new bonds (66.00 billion in new general bonds and 508.22 billion in new special bonds) and 147.07 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (146.37 billion in refinancing general bonds and 0.7 billion in refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. - **Forecasted Issuance (July 7 - July 13)**: Total forecasted issuance is 2249.98 billion yuan, with 716.95 billion yuan in new bonds (145.02 billion in new general bonds and 571.93 billion in new special bonds) and 1533.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (828.82 billion in refinancing general bonds and 704.21 billion in refinancing special bonds) [4]. - **Plan vs. Actual**: The report presents a comparison of planned and actual local bond issuance in different regions and time periods [19]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of July 6, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 56.50%, and that of new special bonds was 49.17% [24]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of July 6 [24]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of July 6, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 41653.80 billion yuan, with 17768.55 billion yuan in 2025 and an additional 286.32 billion yuan to be added next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan [6]. - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of July 6, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 4865.26 billion yuan, and 16770.39 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [6]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report provides data on local bond primary and secondary spreads [35]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: It presents secondary spreads in different regions from May 9, 2025, to July 4, 2025 [38]. 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions - The report shows the monthly investment statistics of new special bonds, with the latest month only considering issued new bonds [40].

Group 1 - Inner Mongolia issued 15-year special local bonds with a scale of 155 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.97% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 15-year bonds was 3.17 times, with an expected multiple of 1.96 [1] - Inner Mongolia also issued 20-year special local bonds for rail transit with a scale of 10 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.03% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 20-year rail transit bonds was 10.33 times, with an expected multiple of 2.03 [1]

晨报 成材 成材：唐山限产消息带动钢价反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 2 日 逻辑：2025 年上半年，各地发行地方债规模约 54902 亿元，与 2024 年同期的 34928 亿元相比，增长约 57.2%。针对"唐山 7 月 4 日-15 日将 减排限产"的消息。Mysteel 对唐山全流程钢企进行了跟踪调研，厂家表 示已接到通知，受空气质量影响，基本在延续 6 月下旬的管控，现烧结限 产 30%，部分高炉未满产状态，整体对产量影响有限。6 月 23 日-6 月 29 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积总计 310.82 万平方米， 环比增长 50.4%，同比下降 24.3%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日午后震 ...