Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators in various sectors, including real estate, trade, and commodity prices, while also addressing the implications of recent legal rulings on tariffs and local government debt issuance. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to 6.16% as of August 24, down from 7.14% on August 17, indicating a high-level retreat in economic activity [8] - The sales decline in commercial housing has narrowed, with a reported decrease of -14% in the first 29 days of August compared to -22% in July [12] - The container throughput at Chinese ports has shown a year-on-year increase of 5.9% over the past four weeks, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.3% [22] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have slowed, with a growth rate of +6% as of August 24, down from +8% previously [14] - The land premium rate has decreased to 1.62% as of August 24, compared to 6.5% in July, indicating a cooling in the real estate market [12] Group 3: Production Trends - The operating rate of oil asphalt plants has declined for two consecutive weeks, currently at 29.3%, down 1.4% from the previous week [17] - Industrial production indicators show a mixed performance, with coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port increasing by 7.3% year-on-year, but overall industrial production remains weak [20] Group 4: Trade Developments - The recent legal ruling on U.S. tariffs has deemed most global tariff policies illegal, which may impact trade dynamics between the U.S. and China [4] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has significantly decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 33.3% in the number of ships [23] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Prices for gold, oil, and copper have risen, with gold reaching $3,475.5 per ounce, up 3%, and oil prices increasing by 0.5% for WTI and 0.6% for Brent [34] - Conversely, prices for "anti-involution" commodities such as coal and steel have declined, with Shanxi thermal coal prices dropping by 2% [35] Group 6: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has reached 74.6% of the annual target, which is better than in previous years [4] - Long-term interest rates have shown slight adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8379%, reflecting a change of +5.61 basis points from the previous week [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From July 7th to July 13th, local government bonds were issued with a total of 231.79 billion yuan, including 78.487 billion yuan in new bonds and 153.303 billion yuan in refinancing bonds. From July 14th to July 20th, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 251.183 billion yuan, including 189.046 billion yuan in new bonds and 62.137 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2][4][5]. - As of July 13th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 4.194012 trillion yuan, with 1.805487 trillion yuan disclosed in 2025. The total disclosed special new special - purpose bonds in 2025 reached 486.526 billion yuan, and 1.677039 trillion yuan since 2023 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - The net supply of local government bonds from July 7th to July 13th was 110.2 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from July 14th to July 20th is 150.5 billion yuan [12][15]. - Comparing the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in June and July shows differences in new bonds, new general bonds, new special - purpose bonds, and refinancing bonds [14][17]. Local Bond Net Supply - As of July 13th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 56.80%, and that of new special - purpose bonds was 50.25%. The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in the relevant chart [26]. Special Bond Issuance Details - As of July 13th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds' issuance statistics by region are provided, with different amounts in each round and region. The issuance statistics of special new special - purpose bonds from 2023 to 2025 by region are also shown [32][35]. Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented, including the changes in spreads for different maturities and regions [39][42]. New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, with a note that the latest monthly statistics only consider issued new bonds [45].

Report Title - "Special Bond Issuance Progress Nearly 50% - Government Bond Weekly Report (7/6)" [1][4] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment - trading indicators [2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance (June 30 - July 6)**: Total issuance was 721.39 billion yuan, with 574.32 billion yuan in new bonds (66.00 billion in new general bonds and 508.22 billion in new special bonds) and 147.07 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (146.37 billion in refinancing general bonds and 0.7 billion in refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. - **Forecasted Issuance (July 7 - July 13)**: Total forecasted issuance is 2249.98 billion yuan, with 716.95 billion yuan in new bonds (145.02 billion in new general bonds and 571.93 billion in new special bonds) and 1533.03 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (828.82 billion in refinancing general bonds and 704.21 billion in refinancing special bonds) [4]. - **Plan vs. Actual**: The report presents a comparison of planned and actual local bond issuance in different regions and time periods [19]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of July 6, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 56.50%, and that of new special bonds was 49.17% [24]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of July 6 [24]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of July 6, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 41653.80 billion yuan, with 17768.55 billion yuan in 2025 and an additional 286.32 billion yuan to be added next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan [6]. - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of July 6, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 4865.26 billion yuan, and 16770.39 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [6]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report provides data on local bond primary and secondary spreads [35]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: It presents secondary spreads in different regions from May 9, 2025, to July 4, 2025 [38]. 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions - The report shows the monthly investment statistics of new special bonds, with the latest month only considering issued new bonds [40].